Aer Lingus - 2
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Isnt that just great, an multimillion euro business counting on a 'plan b' if all else fails!? Typical Irish! Im not a mad fan of the fly east idea. It would take A LOT for me to fly with EI, knowing what their long haul product is like to Asia when the choice of so many other different other airlines who actually care about their Y class pax. Ok, so its a commute to the Uk or mainland Europe. But on my next trip to the US I seriously considering taking a flight to LGW for the VS flight. Its an airline that I wouldnt mind spending the extra for premium economy.
True what akerosid says, sell seats for buttons only gets you so far. So on a flight to JFK in jan its €3k in premier or €400 in economy. Im not willing to pay €3k but I am willing to pay more than €400 for a nicer seat, better service, better meals, nice staff and not having to strain my eyes to see the tv screens which may or may not drop down and even when they do the quality is better on a 15th generation porno copy VHS that you got from a school friend!
Has DM actually ever gone anywhere t/a in premier? Is he aware of the crap service that his airline provides?
On a side note, would you pay $500 for a premier seat on the JFK - DUB flight on top of your economy price?
True what akerosid says, sell seats for buttons only gets you so far. So on a flight to JFK in jan its €3k in premier or €400 in economy. Im not willing to pay €3k but I am willing to pay more than €400 for a nicer seat, better service, better meals, nice staff and not having to strain my eyes to see the tv screens which may or may not drop down and even when they do the quality is better on a 15th generation porno copy VHS that you got from a school friend!
Has DM actually ever gone anywhere t/a in premier? Is he aware of the crap service that his airline provides?
On a side note, would you pay $500 for a premier seat on the JFK - DUB flight on top of your economy price?
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We've heard so much in the lead up to privatisation about how "long haul is EI's best hope" (or similar), so this is the year where this is proven. With FR, even as a big shareholder, snapping at its heels, it's as important as ever.
Open Skies is the key and just thinking about it today, there are two scenarios:
- Scenario A. The EU and US meet and do a deal. In this case, we go back to the Nov 05 agreement and proceed in that manner, i.e. move to 3:1 and EI adds three new cities.
- Scenario B. The EU and US meet and fail to do a deal, or defer their negotiations to a few months down the road. In that circumstance, Ireland and the US will agree a deal to get the Nov 05 deal on the road. Why waste time; I would expect the Americans and the Irish to be talking now, so that if things between the EU and US go pear shaped at the end of January (as expected), Aer Lingus won't be held back.
This being the case and provided the govt can get an indication from the Americans that they would be open to moving forward with the deal as agreed last November, then why not just proceed on this basis and waste no time? Once the EU and US negotiations collapse, the Irish and US authorities can just move ahead; indeed, given that the deal is effectively already made, why not just agree it in advance. If there is the requisite level of commitment on all sides, but particularly on the government's side, we can get this moving. I really can't see the Americans objecting; their airlines don't enjoy the stopover any more than EI does.
If, however, we come to the end of February and nothing happens, then questions will need to be asked. It would be unforgivable, given the huge increase in t/a traffic achievable under a new bilateral. To me, that's crunch time No1. Crunch time No2 is getting the right product in place for the Summer.
That means all aircraft that can take up to date PTV should have it; the whole t/a product - not just J Class - should be revitalised and dusted down; to say that EI is unable to give a good service is ridiculous; the professionalism and experience is there; it just needs investment and a bit of imagination.
Now if those two things can be done by next Summer, then all okay; if not, then I think shareholders will start asking some very pointed questions - and I can see the first post-privatisation AGM being a blast ...
Incidentally, can anyone tell me if the new A330-300 is a -301 or a -302; the JP Airline fleets reports that it's a -302 (with an MTOW of 233t), whereas other - equally authoritative - sources report that it's a -301.
Open Skies is the key and just thinking about it today, there are two scenarios:
- Scenario A. The EU and US meet and do a deal. In this case, we go back to the Nov 05 agreement and proceed in that manner, i.e. move to 3:1 and EI adds three new cities.
- Scenario B. The EU and US meet and fail to do a deal, or defer their negotiations to a few months down the road. In that circumstance, Ireland and the US will agree a deal to get the Nov 05 deal on the road. Why waste time; I would expect the Americans and the Irish to be talking now, so that if things between the EU and US go pear shaped at the end of January (as expected), Aer Lingus won't be held back.
This being the case and provided the govt can get an indication from the Americans that they would be open to moving forward with the deal as agreed last November, then why not just proceed on this basis and waste no time? Once the EU and US negotiations collapse, the Irish and US authorities can just move ahead; indeed, given that the deal is effectively already made, why not just agree it in advance. If there is the requisite level of commitment on all sides, but particularly on the government's side, we can get this moving. I really can't see the Americans objecting; their airlines don't enjoy the stopover any more than EI does.
If, however, we come to the end of February and nothing happens, then questions will need to be asked. It would be unforgivable, given the huge increase in t/a traffic achievable under a new bilateral. To me, that's crunch time No1. Crunch time No2 is getting the right product in place for the Summer.
That means all aircraft that can take up to date PTV should have it; the whole t/a product - not just J Class - should be revitalised and dusted down; to say that EI is unable to give a good service is ridiculous; the professionalism and experience is there; it just needs investment and a bit of imagination.
Now if those two things can be done by next Summer, then all okay; if not, then I think shareholders will start asking some very pointed questions - and I can see the first post-privatisation AGM being a blast ...
Incidentally, can anyone tell me if the new A330-300 is a -301 or a -302; the JP Airline fleets reports that it's a -302 (with an MTOW of 233t), whereas other - equally authoritative - sources report that it's a -301.
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Thanks, EI-RB.
More bad news for EI today; American Airlines has announced that it will be introducing a new direct SNN-ORD service next Summer; this is in addition to the DUB-ORD service, which will be "decoupled" from the SNN service for the Summer. The new AA SNN-ORD service will be on a 757 (which is probably going to be the longest, or one of the longest '57 services), but they have the feed at ORD.
As part of EI's "Plan B", in case the change in US access rules didn't/doesn't come into effect, EI had announced a SNN-ORD for next Summer. That plan may now have to be reviewed, but the airline's hands are very tied; they can't withdraw a SNN service without giving up the new DUB-BOS direct, so where else can they go from SNN? Perhaps one possibility might be DUB-SNN-MCO, but that's mainly a leisure route.
This only underlines the urgency of getting t/a access for next Summer sorted out.
More bad news for EI today; American Airlines has announced that it will be introducing a new direct SNN-ORD service next Summer; this is in addition to the DUB-ORD service, which will be "decoupled" from the SNN service for the Summer. The new AA SNN-ORD service will be on a 757 (which is probably going to be the longest, or one of the longest '57 services), but they have the feed at ORD.
As part of EI's "Plan B", in case the change in US access rules didn't/doesn't come into effect, EI had announced a SNN-ORD for next Summer. That plan may now have to be reviewed, but the airline's hands are very tied; they can't withdraw a SNN service without giving up the new DUB-BOS direct, so where else can they go from SNN? Perhaps one possibility might be DUB-SNN-MCO, but that's mainly a leisure route.
This only underlines the urgency of getting t/a access for next Summer sorted out.
Last edited by akerosid; 19th Dec 2006 at 05:13. Reason: 6am on Tuesday - wasn't fully awake!
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Ireland - Lithuania
Here's the line up for next summer:
Ryanair
Dublin - Kaunas 5 x weekly day flight
Lithuanian Airlines
Dublin - Palanga 1 x weekly night flight
Dublin - Vilnius 4 x weekly night flight
Shannon - Vilnius 2 x weekly night flight
AirBaltic
Dublin - Vilnius 7 x weekly night flight
AerLingus
Dublin - Vilnius 3 x weekly day flight
While I agree that there is a huge market for flights between Ireland and Lithuania, I hope AerLingus aren't a bit too late on the scene... As mentioned already, nicely timed flights will have to be their key to success. But 3 weekly suggests it'll be difficult for passengers to book their ideal return trip... I would think it would have been more sensible to compete against the ailing Estonia Air on the Dublin to Tallinn route. While Estonia has a few expats less in Ireland than Lithuania, Tallinn would be more appealing to Irish tourists as a city break destination, and even an alternative for those travelling to Helsinki....
PS - And what about the the 1000's of Lithuanians living in Cork? Off to Shannon I suppose
and even Dublin anytime they want to get home...
Ryanair
Dublin - Kaunas 5 x weekly day flight
Lithuanian Airlines
Dublin - Palanga 1 x weekly night flight
Dublin - Vilnius 4 x weekly night flight
Shannon - Vilnius 2 x weekly night flight
AirBaltic
Dublin - Vilnius 7 x weekly night flight
AerLingus
Dublin - Vilnius 3 x weekly day flight
While I agree that there is a huge market for flights between Ireland and Lithuania, I hope AerLingus aren't a bit too late on the scene... As mentioned already, nicely timed flights will have to be their key to success. But 3 weekly suggests it'll be difficult for passengers to book their ideal return trip... I would think it would have been more sensible to compete against the ailing Estonia Air on the Dublin to Tallinn route. While Estonia has a few expats less in Ireland than Lithuania, Tallinn would be more appealing to Irish tourists as a city break destination, and even an alternative for those travelling to Helsinki....
PS - And what about the the 1000's of Lithuanians living in Cork? Off to Shannon I suppose
and even Dublin anytime they want to get home...
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Aer Lingus routes:
It would seem like a perfect time for AerLingus to spread its wings and look at a new base. It would seem that the cost base is well and truly able to stand the might of the low costers, certainly since they can cope with Ryanair at DUB in last few years.
I was reviewing the CAA route stats. They 2 Bmibaby Knock routes to BHX and MAN are achieving sweet boarding.. since EI are taking on bmibaby on ORK BHX & MAN, would they look at the NOC routes? Would be nice to see the return of EI at NOC? I dont reckon bmibaby would hang around long if EI looked at the routes. Mind you with FR now going onto EMA NOC it will be interesting to see if WW see the long term on the BHX route.
What does anyone else think?
I was reviewing the CAA route stats. They 2 Bmibaby Knock routes to BHX and MAN are achieving sweet boarding.. since EI are taking on bmibaby on ORK BHX & MAN, would they look at the NOC routes? Would be nice to see the return of EI at NOC? I dont reckon bmibaby would hang around long if EI looked at the routes. Mind you with FR now going onto EMA NOC it will be interesting to see if WW see the long term on the BHX route.
What does anyone else think?
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EI-RB
HI EI-RB,
I read your comments re EI should do NOCLHR and that EI should match FR etc.
I would love to see Aer Lingus being more proactive and serving Regional airports as I am confident that there are many good opportunities for them.
However, I dont see any point in Aer Lingus matching or challenging Ryanair. Aer Lingus should sensibly seek out non Ryanair routes and take on airlines who are not as aggressive as Ryanair. More yield to be achieved where Ryanair is not flying.
About Shannon, Aer Lingus in my view have very little interest in Shannon airport. They only have a mere 6 routes now. LHR, ORD, BOS,JFK, LAX (via DUB), & DUB. They had every opportunity to boost SNN business pre FR base and they didnt. Pity.
It would be fruitless changing slots at LHR for NOC when the existing routes are performing well. ie SNN ORK & NOC.
I read your comments re EI should do NOCLHR and that EI should match FR etc.
I would love to see Aer Lingus being more proactive and serving Regional airports as I am confident that there are many good opportunities for them.
However, I dont see any point in Aer Lingus matching or challenging Ryanair. Aer Lingus should sensibly seek out non Ryanair routes and take on airlines who are not as aggressive as Ryanair. More yield to be achieved where Ryanair is not flying.
About Shannon, Aer Lingus in my view have very little interest in Shannon airport. They only have a mere 6 routes now. LHR, ORD, BOS,JFK, LAX (via DUB), & DUB. They had every opportunity to boost SNN business pre FR base and they didnt. Pity.
It would be fruitless changing slots at LHR for NOC when the existing routes are performing well. ie SNN ORK & NOC.
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I think EI neglecting SNN is a shame, but EI could do a lot more with Cork!!!
Vilnius is a good choice from EI! Santiago De C. will be filled with Spanish students coming to learn English, and its good they're only operating from May to Sep. I
They have plenty of room to grow, but need to strike before FR or others get onto routes before them! They should also be looking at more year round destinations: They should launch:
Cork to:
Riga, Krakow, Budapest, Geneva (winter only??), Madrid
Dublin to:
Tallinn, Gdansk, Moscow, Pula or Zagreb, Larnaca
I think EI offers very good fares, and very good service! I wonder if a new base will be opened, and if so, will it be in the UK or Europe? Belfast may be an oppertunity, although EZY has things kind of wrapped up there!!! EDI has some potential, but who knows what they'll do!!!
Vilnius is a good choice from EI! Santiago De C. will be filled with Spanish students coming to learn English, and its good they're only operating from May to Sep. I
They have plenty of room to grow, but need to strike before FR or others get onto routes before them! They should also be looking at more year round destinations: They should launch:
Cork to:
Riga, Krakow, Budapest, Geneva (winter only??), Madrid
Dublin to:
Tallinn, Gdansk, Moscow, Pula or Zagreb, Larnaca
I think EI offers very good fares, and very good service! I wonder if a new base will be opened, and if so, will it be in the UK or Europe? Belfast may be an oppertunity, although EZY has things kind of wrapped up there!!! EDI has some potential, but who knows what they'll do!!!
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So Aer lingus are doing a new Spanish route after dropping Almeria and Valencia. Is this because of deals for new routes that they switch around a bit or is the new destination likely to be a big hit. Not sure of the geogoraphy of it all.
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You obviously haven't done your homework, they already operate Cork-Madrid. Krakow and Budapest are already served quite successfully from Cork by other operators (Central Wings & Malev). It would make more sense to start new routes rather than start a farewar with an existing operator. Riga and Geneva are good ideas though. Another obvious route would be Cork-Glasgow which has had no operator since Loganair dropped the route in October. Also perhaps Vienna, Venice, Milan, Vilnius or Dubrovnik(perhaps operated in the summer only on an opposite schedule to Geneva). Basically Cork needs a fifth A320. We were expecting it this June, but it never materialised. Cork undoubtedly could support new routes, as well as increases in frequencies on existing ones.
/begin slight thread creep ....
Anyone else remember this ... mid 80's at a guess ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_i3iX6ozvI
end slight thread creep/
JAS
Anyone else remember this ... mid 80's at a guess ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_i3iX6ozvI
end slight thread creep/
JAS
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As for Long -Haul when are we going to see new routes opened to more Eastern destinations ? I can see EI's strategy in Plan B that Akerosid keeps referring to but will they attract enough passengers to have a decent load factor ? These are serious questions to be answered by EI.
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Just a little comparrison, but when Virgin started flying in the 80s with one 747 why were they so popular? Because their product and service was better than BA! EI are the small boy comapred with Virgin, BA, and all the american carriers. What are the incentives to fly with EI?
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There will always be people who will look for the cheapest possible deal, there will be people who will fly Ryanair cos there is no other choice. Then there are the people that will not fly Ryanair at any cost and prefer the established Aer Lingus! Which are you? If EI drop the cost base so much its just a green ryanair and the only person that suffers is the passenger. Thats why I bag on about the long haul product. Get it right, get the short haul product right and then we will all have a reason to avoid Ryanair.
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Very good points Airbourne; they really do need to make a decision. While I would not defend poor or shoddy service from EI, I've always believed that if EI isn't willing to invest in a decent service product, it shouldn't even bother looking east, because the likes of SQ/TG etc will cut them to little pieces - even if EI offers bargain basement fares and, as said previously, you just can't offer all of your seats for peanuts. Really, it needs to decide what kind of airline it wants to be. This doesn't rule out EI dipping its toe into the long haul low cost market, but even that will need investment - a brighter, fresher image etc.
In the (how long - nearly 18 months?) since DM came in, what exactly has happened? OK, Dubai was launched and in fairness, westbound growth has been hampered by the stopover, but if they were really interested in the potential of an eastbound route, all of the service quality issues could have been addressed by now. There's just no feeling of movement on long haul. Where is the fleet deal we had been expecting (another airline - Royal Jordanian - today jumped onto the 787, so there's another five production slots gone from the not many left in the timescale EI wants new aircraft).
Apparently, the Commission was expected to give a decision on the FR plans for EI, but hasn't done so. More interestingly - from a long haul perspective - EU airlines and govts will meet the Commission in Brussels in the near future to discuss the EU's strategy for the next round of negotiations with the US; hopefully they'll talk some sense into the Commission. The next round is, of course, crucial to EI. One way or another, EI needs increased access for next Summer.
http://www.rte.ie/aertel/p119.htm
In the (how long - nearly 18 months?) since DM came in, what exactly has happened? OK, Dubai was launched and in fairness, westbound growth has been hampered by the stopover, but if they were really interested in the potential of an eastbound route, all of the service quality issues could have been addressed by now. There's just no feeling of movement on long haul. Where is the fleet deal we had been expecting (another airline - Royal Jordanian - today jumped onto the 787, so there's another five production slots gone from the not many left in the timescale EI wants new aircraft).
Apparently, the Commission was expected to give a decision on the FR plans for EI, but hasn't done so. More interestingly - from a long haul perspective - EU airlines and govts will meet the Commission in Brussels in the near future to discuss the EU's strategy for the next round of negotiations with the US; hopefully they'll talk some sense into the Commission. The next round is, of course, crucial to EI. One way or another, EI needs increased access for next Summer.
http://www.rte.ie/aertel/p119.htm
Last edited by akerosid; 20th Dec 2006 at 17:54. Reason: changing words around
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Now it has ...
OK, the Commission has now reached an initial decision, whereby it has decided to undertake a probe into FR's proposed takeover and this will delay the EU decision until next June. Just can't wait to see MO'L's reaction to this. Mind you, it's probably academic, because the EI shareholders are likely to give him the two fingers on Friday (maybe they'll just giving him one finger - as an energy saving exercise!)
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/20122006/325...nair-deal.html
I wouldn't celebrate too early, though; he may decide to make EI's life pretty miserable over the next few months, just out of pique ... I wouldn't put it past him. FR on DUB-VNO, SCQ, others?
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/20122006/325...nair-deal.html
I wouldn't celebrate too early, though; he may decide to make EI's life pretty miserable over the next few months, just out of pique ... I wouldn't put it past him. FR on DUB-VNO, SCQ, others?
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You obviously haven't done your homework, they already operate Cork-Madrid. Krakow and Budapest are already served quite successfully from Cork by other operators (Central Wings & Malev). It would make more sense to start new routes rather than start a farewar with an existing operator. Riga and Geneva are good ideas though. Another obvious route would be Cork-Glasgow which has had no operator since Loganair dropped the route in October. Also perhaps Vienna, Venice, Milan, Vilnius or Dubrovnik(perhaps operated in the summer only on an opposite schedule to Geneva). Basically Cork needs a fifth A320. We were expecting it this June, but it never materialised. Cork undoubtedly could support new routes, as well as increases in frequencies on existing ones.
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According to FR, all of its current offers for EI are now void, so Friday's deadline is now no longer valid. The airline has expressed disappointment in the EU's stance, but will now await the outcome of the EU's deliberations, expected next June and will make another offer.
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/...PSE-URGENT.XML
Fasten your seatbelts guys, he's going to make life pretty unpleasant for EI over the next few months. Subject to the EU's deliberations, I could see future offers being made steadily lower, as FR tightens the vice around it.
Now the question for SIPTU is: will it stand in the way of the cuts necessary, or will it effectively assist in FR's vice-tightening by delaying and obstructing the cost cutting process? I think we know the answer to that ...
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/...PSE-URGENT.XML
Fasten your seatbelts guys, he's going to make life pretty unpleasant for EI over the next few months. Subject to the EU's deliberations, I could see future offers being made steadily lower, as FR tightens the vice around it.
Now the question for SIPTU is: will it stand in the way of the cuts necessary, or will it effectively assist in FR's vice-tightening by delaying and obstructing the cost cutting process? I think we know the answer to that ...
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2007????
I get the feeling that we're in to a period of ruthless competition of a kind that we've not seen in Ireland before.
Between Siptu, the Shannon Stopover and lack of political direction over the years, EI are in a very vulnerable position, far more vulnerable than many people realise.
I hope they survive for the sake of competition in the market and continued access to LHR, CDG,AMS etc.
Between Siptu, the Shannon Stopover and lack of political direction over the years, EI are in a very vulnerable position, far more vulnerable than many people realise.
I hope they survive for the sake of competition in the market and continued access to LHR, CDG,AMS etc.