HEATHROW
Join Date: Sep 2002
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And do you remember this bit?
I was informed that major infrastructure projects are evaluated to determine a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR). Apparently, the methodology used in this appraisal system is stacked against the regions. Regional projects apparently produce very poor numbers under this system with - I am told - 5 constituting a good result for a project in the North. Yet, we are told, LHR R3 has a stellar BCR rating of 14. All arguments dismissed! Build it at once! For the benefit of everybody! But ... just hold on a minute. That BCR is calculated according to a £147Bn boost to GDP over 60 years ... err, what if the actual number really is £33.6Bn or even the higher estimate of £54.8Bn? And what if the construction cost overruns by 40% - just half of the figure we saw with the Channel Tunnel? And what if Sir Peter Hendy is correct and the support works come in at £10Bn? Note I'm being conservative here and not inserting TfL's £20Bn number. What is the BCR rating now? Below 5 yet (or even zero)? 5 being in line with all those neglected regional alternative bidders for public funding? Interesting, isn't it?
Because Heathrow is a "regulated charges" airport, there is mileage for HAL to inflate the "costs" as much as possible to put them into their asset base they present to the regulator, so they can be seen to be getting only a "reasonable" return on their capital investments.
For example, all the land costs, such as the purchase of Harmondsworth housing, is presented at current value. yet Heathrow has been progressively buying up houses there for years as they happen to come on to the market, and then transferring them to an arms-length property company they own who rent them out in the meantime. When it comes to actual build start they will be transferred back, without any difficulty of course, and the tenants will leave, but charged at then current greatly inflated value. The margin flows back to the shareholders by an alternative route.
For example, all the land costs, such as the purchase of Harmondsworth housing, is presented at current value. yet Heathrow has been progressively buying up houses there for years as they happen to come on to the market, and then transferring them to an arms-length property company they own who rent them out in the meantime. When it comes to actual build start they will be transferred back, without any difficulty of course, and the tenants will leave, but charged at then current greatly inflated value. The margin flows back to the shareholders by an alternative route.
Join Date: Aug 2001
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So Shed, why are your sources more reliable? Two disgruntled panel members or the full panel?
I'm sure you'll trade quotes all day long but in my opinion, I believe the Commission and I believe what MAG say.
Clearly you don't.
End of.
I'm sure you'll trade quotes all day long but in my opinion, I believe the Commission and I believe what MAG say.
Clearly you don't.
End of.
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So Shed, why are your sources more reliable?
I don't present one convenient set of numbers as fact. The numbers put forward in the piece I quoted cover a range and allow for a generous margin of error. Those you quote are absolute and appear deeply unconvincing. My aim was to remind you that these numbers which you present confidently as established fact are actually highly controversial and subject to considerable doubt for the reasons outlined by two experts who were actually on the panel. Their dissent could hardly be more damning of the methodology deployed. You disbelieve that expert opinion, I don't. Fair enough. But please don't then present your preferred numbers as if they are incontovertible fact. I don't do that in my postings on this topic: I always acknowledge margin for error and an element of doubt. You just marry the cherry-picked projections which suit your narrative.
I believe the Commission and I believe what MAG say.
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LHR
Costs
Build cost - £18.6bn
Runway, taxiways & aprons - £1.1bn
Other costs – £16.5bn (including £5bn for surface access)
Land & Buildings £8.8bn
Plant & equipment £3.6bn
Pax transit system £1.7bn
Benefits
Pax - an extra 43 million passengers by 2030
Jobs - up to 40,000 jobs at the airport
Economic impact. Up to an extra £100bn (or £5.38 for every £1 invested)
Source: Airport’s Commission
Hans Christian Andersen was apparently unavailable
Costs
Build cost - £18.6bn
Runway, taxiways & aprons - £1.1bn
Other costs – £16.5bn (including £5bn for surface access)
Land & Buildings £8.8bn
Plant & equipment £3.6bn
Pax transit system £1.7bn
Benefits
Pax - an extra 43 million passengers by 2030
Jobs - up to 40,000 jobs at the airport
Economic impact. Up to an extra £100bn (or £5.38 for every £1 invested)
Source: Airport’s Commission
Hans Christian Andersen was apparently unavailable
Join Date: Jul 2006
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LHR
Costs
Build cost - £18.6bn
Runway, taxiways & aprons - £1.1bn
Other costs – £16.5bn (including £5bn for surface access)
Land & Buildings £8.8bn
Plant & equipment £3.6bn
Pax transit system £1.7bn
Benefits
Pax - an extra 43 million passengers by 2030
Jobs - up to 40,000 jobs at the airport
Economic impact. Up to an extra £100bn (or £5.38 for every £1 invested)
Source: Airport’s Commission
Hans Christian Andersen was apparently unavailable
Costs
Build cost - £18.6bn
Runway, taxiways & aprons - £1.1bn
Other costs – £16.5bn (including £5bn for surface access)
Land & Buildings £8.8bn
Plant & equipment £3.6bn
Pax transit system £1.7bn
Benefits
Pax - an extra 43 million passengers by 2030
Jobs - up to 40,000 jobs at the airport
Economic impact. Up to an extra £100bn (or £5.38 for every £1 invested)
Source: Airport’s Commission
Hans Christian Andersen was apparently unavailable
Join Date: Apr 2010
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A BILLION for the runway, taxiways Apron????
Someone is taking the proverbial......................
there's some guys in a white van around here who would do the whole lot for a million
Someone is taking the proverbial......................
there's some guys in a white van around here who would do the whole lot for a million
Join Date: Jun 2008
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Sorry if this has been covered before, I'd be interested to see any actual properly evidenced forecast demand for such a third runway?
For example, how do you really know that you'd fill even 30% of a new runway.
AMS has 6 runways, only 1 terminal and according to wikipedia, just shy of 55m pax in 2015.
My point being, if other European hubs have far greater infrastructure in terms of runway capacity, why are they not the leaders above and beyond LHR? Is it the case that even with 6 runways there just isn't really the demand to constantly fill it and likewise, a third runway at LHR would likely not be utilised above 30-50% making some of the arguments presented here about benefit to economy as slightly less rosy and perhaps more farcical?
Dare I say.
For example, how do you really know that you'd fill even 30% of a new runway.
AMS has 6 runways, only 1 terminal and according to wikipedia, just shy of 55m pax in 2015.
My point being, if other European hubs have far greater infrastructure in terms of runway capacity, why are they not the leaders above and beyond LHR? Is it the case that even with 6 runways there just isn't really the demand to constantly fill it and likewise, a third runway at LHR would likely not be utilised above 30-50% making some of the arguments presented here about benefit to economy as slightly less rosy and perhaps more farcical?
Dare I say.
Sorry T250
Having spent the last 26 years "holding over Bovingdon" for up to 40 minutes on bad days and never less than 10 mins in CAVOK I used to pray for another runway. I once took a note of all my holding in one year and it added up to 20 hours...............
Having spent the last 26 years "holding over Bovingdon" for up to 40 minutes on bad days and never less than 10 mins in CAVOK I used to pray for another runway. I once took a note of all my holding in one year and it added up to 20 hours...............
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According to the Sunday times, flybe are to run the ex-little red flights from Heathrow to Manchester and Scotland.
Good luck with that one.....
Good luck with that one.....
Join Date: Feb 2004
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They have for the current season however the regulator is obliged to re-offer them for a number of seasons under the terms of the take over .
Reminder of routes that can be served (Also in Flybe thread)
Aberdeen/Edinburgh/Nice/Cairo and Riyadh for so many seasons (is it 6 ?) then any other EU city.
Manchester is not one of them and would require purchased/leased slots at a considerable cost
Reminder of routes that can be served (Also in Flybe thread)
Aberdeen/Edinburgh/Nice/Cairo and Riyadh for so many seasons (is it 6 ?) then any other EU city.
Manchester is not one of them and would require purchased/leased slots at a considerable cost
Join Date: Dec 2011
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According to the Sunday times, flybe are to run the ex-little red flights from Heathrow to Manchester and Scotland.
Good luck with that one.....
Good luck with that one.....
Nice idea, unlikely to happen. Maybe if BE had the intention to do this it would have happened (1) when the remedy slots were first released, or (2) when VS came off the routes.
Doubt if BE will appear at LHR unless or until (pick the one you prefer) it has a third rwy and pigs are flying all over the place.
They have for the current season however the regulator is obliged to re-offer them for a number of seasons under the terms of the take over .
Reminder of routes that can be served (Also in Flybe thread)
Aberdeen/Edinburgh/Nice/Cairo and Riyadh for so many seasons (is it 6 ?) then any other EU city.
Manchester is not one of them and would require purchased/leased slots at a considerable cost
Reminder of routes that can be served (Also in Flybe thread)
Aberdeen/Edinburgh/Nice/Cairo and Riyadh for so many seasons (is it 6 ?) then any other EU city.
Manchester is not one of them and would require purchased/leased slots at a considerable cost
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I believe that BA can use them on any route for the summer season as the slots returned to the, and they have used them for the recently announced shorthaul routes such as Inverness, Billund, Palermo, Chania, and possibly for Tehran. The slots have to be reofferred for the winter season and they have to be on the specific routes, if no one takes them then they return back to BA and they can use them how they wish.
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The Flybe/LHR story was in Thr Sunday Times:
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Companies/article1686314.ece
I suspect there is an element of kite-flying on the part of Flybe or The Sunday Times indulging in speculation.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Companies/article1686314.ece
I suspect there is an element of kite-flying on the part of Flybe or The Sunday Times indulging in speculation.
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According to the Sunday times, flybe are to run the ex-little red flights from Heathrow to Manchester and Scotland.
Good luck with that one.....
Good luck with that one.....
The Flybe/LHR story was in Thr Sunday Times:
Flybe lands at Heathrow to take on BA | The Sunday Times
I suspect there is an element of kite-flying on the part of Flybe or The Sunday Times indulging in speculation.
Flybe lands at Heathrow to take on BA | The Sunday Times
I suspect there is an element of kite-flying on the part of Flybe or The Sunday Times indulging in speculation.
Only read the first few paragraphs of the article as it disappears behind a pay-wall, so may miss quite a lot.
Funny that there's nothing on the "interweb" from BE, so it could be nonsense.
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anyone see the article in the Times yesterday that the biggest supporter of Leave is a guy living in the Isle of Man to avoid UK tax and that their Communications chief has some Russian connections of rather dubious background............