HEATHROW
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Maybe one for you Skip. With your analyst hat on.
Serious question. Oman Air have just bought a daily slot into LHR from AF KL for $75m.
How long is the return on that investment given a reasonable yield and say a 75% load factor ?
Clearly there is a sell on value that can be clawed back but it seems a staggering amount minute of money even for an MEB..ish .
Serious question. Oman Air have just bought a daily slot into LHR from AF KL for $75m.
How long is the return on that investment given a reasonable yield and say a 75% load factor ?
Clearly there is a sell on value that can be clawed back but it seems a staggering amount minute of money even for an MEB..ish .
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Bagso
You have raised an interesting question. This is all about carriers trying to avoid using Lgw as they want access to higher yielding Lhr. But if they are having to pay 75 million to get the slots, surely this must stack against the case for buying Lhr slots over using Lgw? I really wonder if the higher yield does pay for this huge cost of buying slots at Lhr?
TB
You have raised an interesting question. This is all about carriers trying to avoid using Lgw as they want access to higher yielding Lhr. But if they are having to pay 75 million to get the slots, surely this must stack against the case for buying Lhr slots over using Lgw? I really wonder if the higher yield does pay for this huge cost of buying slots at Lhr?
TB
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Whilst demand is greater than supply clearly there will be a comparable sell on value so they only need to make their money over the life cycle they own the rights.
Of course if the 3rw does appear the dynamic changes and capacity will then outstrip demand, presumably slot values "if" held as a current/fixed asset will plunge ?
I say if because I understand not every airline holds them on the balance sheet.
Not sure how the complexities of this work as I cannot see that the cost would be w/o straight away as a purchase ?
Of course if the 3rw does appear the dynamic changes and capacity will then outstrip demand, presumably slot values "if" held as a current/fixed asset will plunge ?
I say if because I understand not every airline holds them on the balance sheet.
Not sure how the complexities of this work as I cannot see that the cost would be w/o straight away as a purchase ?
Last edited by Bagso; 15th Feb 2016 at 21:37.
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It will be interesting to see how long BA/EI continue to offer 20 flights a day between LHR and DUB now they they are both part of IAG. Some flights are only 5 minutes apart !! Some consolidation onto larger aircraft would seem to be a logical way for BA to free up LHR slots in future for other uses. Or were there conditions imposed on IAG during the EI take over process which prevent them from consolidating flights ??
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Gatwick boss urges airport expansion re-think amid report's 'spurious forecasts' | Daily Mail Online
The whole report was shambolic !
Zero emphasis on costs.
Zero emphasis on having to underwite WHOLE project
" just in case".
Zero emphasis on Manchester,
Centre of country,
As many domestic spokes as Amsterdam and capacity rising to 55m in a lessor timescale than it will take to put a runway in the South.
Manchester's problem is that it is too near 22m people but sadly not near London !
The whole report was shambolic !
Zero emphasis on costs.
Zero emphasis on having to underwite WHOLE project
" just in case".
Zero emphasis on Manchester,
Centre of country,
As many domestic spokes as Amsterdam and capacity rising to 55m in a lessor timescale than it will take to put a runway in the South.
Manchester's problem is that it is too near 22m people but sadly not near London !
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Are there normally 3 flights to BKK with TG per day? TG9119 seems to be a random extra A380 departure. Wasn't available when I was booking flights and I nearly boarded it by mistake as I'm on the TG911 which leaves an hour later. Seasonal boost?
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Inside Heathrow’s ‘immense’ secret railway station
Inside Heathrow?s ?immense? secret railway station - BBC News
"Heathrow Airport has a secret underneath it: A huge, ghost railway station built to serve Terminal 5.
The empty station, which was completed in 2008, already has platforms but track and signals would need to be installed to make it operational.
Giving BBC Radio 5 live an exclusive tour, Heathrow's head of surface access Chris Joyce said: “The scale is absolutely immense.
“For me, this is the biggest kept secret at Heathrow.”
Well you live and learn!!!
"Heathrow Airport has a secret underneath it: A huge, ghost railway station built to serve Terminal 5.
The empty station, which was completed in 2008, already has platforms but track and signals would need to be installed to make it operational.
Giving BBC Radio 5 live an exclusive tour, Heathrow's head of surface access Chris Joyce said: “The scale is absolutely immense.
“For me, this is the biggest kept secret at Heathrow.”
Well you live and learn!!!
The station at T5 was built with six tracks of which four are currently in use, two for the LUL Piccadilly line and two for the Heathrow Express. (The Heathrow Connect also runs empty to T5). There are various schemes to expand rail access to Heathrow which will use these two platforms which you can find on the web. (Google SWELTRAC.)
Heathrow rail link plan unveiled by Network Rail - BBC News
The scheme to Staines is currently in abeyance, partly because of concerns about level crossings. There are also plans to run to Reading via the north.
Heathrow rail link plan unveiled by Network Rail - BBC News
The scheme to Staines is currently in abeyance, partly because of concerns about level crossings. There are also plans to run to Reading via the north.
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Has Brexit scuppered Heathrow?
With Boris coming out as a No is this more about a changing of the guard at number 10 ?
He does seem to be box office which somehow I simply don't get .
That said I'm inclined to think it will be a "no" vote as it's a simpler answer for your average singular brain cell, especially if focus is on race and immigration.
If that is the case is that then the end game for Cameron and indeed rw3?
Interesting times !
With Boris coming out as a No is this more about a changing of the guard at number 10 ?
He does seem to be box office which somehow I simply don't get .
That said I'm inclined to think it will be a "no" vote as it's a simpler answer for your average singular brain cell, especially if focus is on race and immigration.
If that is the case is that then the end game for Cameron and indeed rw3?
Interesting times !
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Has Brexit scuppered Heathrow?
With Boris coming out as a No is this more about a changing of the guard at number 10 ?
He does seem to be box office which somehow I simply don't get .
That said I'm inclined to think it will be a "no" vote as it's a simpler answer for your average singular brain cell, especially if focus is on race and immigration.
If that is the case is that then the end game for Cameron and indeed rw3?
Interesting times !
With Boris coming out as a No is this more about a changing of the guard at number 10 ?
He does seem to be box office which somehow I simply don't get .
That said I'm inclined to think it will be a "no" vote as it's a simpler answer for your average singular brain cell, especially if focus is on race and immigration.
If that is the case is that then the end game for Cameron and indeed rw3?
Interesting times !
It's the establishment/metropolitan elite/big business/the "movers and shakers"/vested interests against the people, and the people cannot win. They never do.
Even with the anti-establishment feeling around at this time, it's not enough to derail the EU juggernaut (Syriza in Greece is a classic example, and even the likes of Corbyn and McDonnell are now on the pro-EU bandwagon after decades of opposition).
It will be the same in the referendum here, people will be frightened into remaining, despite the potentially bright future for the UK outside the EU.
It's nothing to do with "singular" brain cells, it's just that fear is the greatest motivator of all, and those with the power know how to use it!
Last edited by Fairdealfrank; 10th Mar 2016 at 22:19.
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Bookies have Leave at 5/2. But if by some chance the bookies are proved wrong, can anyone on here point me to an article on what happens --- for example do we need to negotiate bilaterals with each EU member?
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the key word Frank is "potentially"
Most people won't gve up what they have for a "potential" but unkown future
Most people won't gve up what they have for a "potential" but unkown future
Bookies have Leave at 5/2. But if by some chance the bookies are proved wrong, can anyone on here point me to an article on what happens --- for example do we need to negotiate bilaterals with each EU member?
But it's academic, the public doesn't have the stomach to vote to leave.
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Dublin...second runway go ahead £238m - 3 year delivery.
Heathrow £18 "billions".
10 year delivery.
The comparison with the last runway built in the UK (Manchester) , even allowing for inflation made the case that something is badly amiss with these figures.
Does Dublin on today's rates even allowing for acquisition costs not raise eyebrows?
It's 72 times the cost. Where is all the money going ?
EU aside its beyond belief that our MPs and more importantly HAL shareholders are not scratching their collective heads a wee bit.
This really is Emperors New Clothes Territory. .
Heathrow £18 "billions".
10 year delivery.
The comparison with the last runway built in the UK (Manchester) , even allowing for inflation made the case that something is badly amiss with these figures.
Does Dublin on today's rates even allowing for acquisition costs not raise eyebrows?
It's 72 times the cost. Where is all the money going ?
EU aside its beyond belief that our MPs and more importantly HAL shareholders are not scratching their collective heads a wee bit.
This really is Emperors New Clothes Territory. .
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Oh dear Bagso, still going on about costs heh.
Just a quick comparison with your favourite airport:
MAN
Costs
Build cost - up to £1.2bn
Pax - an extra 28 million passengers by 2030
Jobs - up to 18,000 jobs at the airport
Economic impact - up to an extra £1.2bn by 2030 (or £1 for every £1 invested)
Sources - Aviation: Manchester’s second runway, 1993-2001; MEN: Airport set for huge expansion; Manchester airport granted planning consent for huge programme of building works on terminals
LHR
Costs
Build cost - £18.6bn
Pax - an extra 43 million passengers by 2030
Jobs - up to 40,000 jobs at the airport
Economic impact. Up to an extra £100bn (or £5.38 for every £1 invested)
Source: Airport’s Commission
Just a quick comparison with your favourite airport:
MAN
Costs
Build cost - up to £1.2bn
Runway - £172m (including funding for trunk road improvements to cater for the extra traffic generated by the second runway & a £17 million package of environmental measures);
Other costs - £1bn (MAN-TP programme to expand and reconfigure Terminal 2, reconfigure Terminal 3 & demolish Terminal One and its car park)
BenefitsOther costs - £1bn (MAN-TP programme to expand and reconfigure Terminal 2, reconfigure Terminal 3 & demolish Terminal One and its car park)
Pax - an extra 28 million passengers by 2030
Jobs - up to 18,000 jobs at the airport
Economic impact - up to an extra £1.2bn by 2030 (or £1 for every £1 invested)
Sources - Aviation: Manchester’s second runway, 1993-2001; MEN: Airport set for huge expansion; Manchester airport granted planning consent for huge programme of building works on terminals
LHR
Costs
Build cost - £18.6bn
Runway, taxiways & aprons - £1.1bn
Other costs – £16.5bn (including £5bn for surface access)
Land & Buildings £8.8bn
Plant & equipment £3.6bn
Pax transit system £1.7bn
BenefitsOther costs – £16.5bn (including £5bn for surface access)
Land & Buildings £8.8bn
Plant & equipment £3.6bn
Pax transit system £1.7bn
Pax - an extra 43 million passengers by 2030
Jobs - up to 40,000 jobs at the airport
Economic impact. Up to an extra £100bn (or £5.38 for every £1 invested)
Source: Airport’s Commission
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The story was entitled: Airports Commission Accused of Burying Evidence. The version I printed off originated from Putneysw15.com, but there are alternative sources reporting the story. The gist of the story is that the Airports Commission "were hell bent on presenting Heathrow as the best option".
The report arises from the discovery of a letter penned by two of the commission's expert advisers which calls into question the reliability of growth forecasts used to justify the recommendation. These two advisers are named as Professor Peter Mackie and Mr Brian Pearce. They take issue with the forecast produced by PWC which suggests that LHR R3 (NW) will add £147Bn to GDP in a timeframe of 60 years.
According to PM and BP, the methodology used by PWC to reach this conclusion is experimental and has never been tested against a live project. Using the government's established approach to economic modelling, the predicted number for LHR expansion is £33.6 - 54.8Bn. In their letter, they warn that the PWC figures include "a high degree of overlap between the direct and wider impacts ... double counting ... and rely on economic growth and other assumptions which are at the extreme end of the range."
PM and BP highlight the risk of "exaggeration by media" if care is not taken to caveat these figures. Using the £147Bn figure could mislead the public and "qualifiers such as up to do not give a flavour of the likely median or mean outcome across the economic scenarios."
The report arises from the discovery of a letter penned by two of the commission's expert advisers which calls into question the reliability of growth forecasts used to justify the recommendation. These two advisers are named as Professor Peter Mackie and Mr Brian Pearce. They take issue with the forecast produced by PWC which suggests that LHR R3 (NW) will add £147Bn to GDP in a timeframe of 60 years.
According to PM and BP, the methodology used by PWC to reach this conclusion is experimental and has never been tested against a live project. Using the government's established approach to economic modelling, the predicted number for LHR expansion is £33.6 - 54.8Bn. In their letter, they warn that the PWC figures include "a high degree of overlap between the direct and wider impacts ... double counting ... and rely on economic growth and other assumptions which are at the extreme end of the range."
PM and BP highlight the risk of "exaggeration by media" if care is not taken to caveat these figures. Using the £147Bn figure could mislead the public and "qualifiers such as up to do not give a flavour of the likely median or mean outcome across the economic scenarios."