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Old 26th Oct 2012, 18:20
  #2081 (permalink)  
 
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I presume that EasyJet will not be able to fill two daily aircraft simply with point to point passengers from Gatwick's catchment area
They are claiming a starter fare of £125 return, so no reason why they shouldn't be able to fill 2x daily rotations. MOW is a huge growth market, no shortage of places Easy already serve with multiple daily services.

Weren't VS proposing an A330 on this route? So offer twice the frequency, use aggressive YM, plug into the already sizeable business and leisure user base they have at LGW, where's the problem, apart from in the unfair gospel according to the Bearded one? Or are there gremlins out to get him in the CAA aswell as the DfT?
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Old 28th Oct 2012, 10:15
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They (EasyJet) are claiming a starter fare of £125 return
Unlikely to mean every seat will be £125 return, rather it will be for a limited number of tickets bought months in advance.

"Return fares will start from £125 ($201), the airline says." Flightglobal 25.10.12
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Old 28th Oct 2012, 10:23
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Eaayjet will likely price London-Moscow roughly the same as London-Tel Aviv.
There is the very rare return to Tel Aviv for about 125 or 150 pounds but they are rare. Most cost rather more cash - do a dummy booking for yourself
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Old 28th Oct 2012, 12:59
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Unlikely to mean every seat will be £125 return
That is why I referred to it as a starter fare, ie starts at £125, goes up from there. I expect this fare to be year round - if I meant a fare for the start of route, I'd have called it an introductory offer.

Of course they won't sell more than a couple of rows at this price, but it is still lower than what Virgin would have offered, and that has to be weighed against the opportunities for onward connections, which BA already do on a much greater scale.

Beardie might not like hearing this, but I rather suspect the CAA was more interested in the perception of Easyjet as being better value than his airline, than they would have been about onward connections, which do not directly benefit London passengers.


In fact, if we assume that Virgin would have offered a daily A330 with similar seat numbers as a twice daily A320, then offering connections means they are selling seats which would otherwise go to the London market, quite possibly at a lower price.

I'm not sure the difference in departure airport would have been that significant.

Last edited by jabird; 28th Oct 2012 at 13:01.
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Old 30th Oct 2012, 16:24
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TRAFFIC FIGURES

I see in the latest BAA blurb passenger numbers at Heathrow for July and August 2012 were 400,000 down on last year the company stating the ´´Olympic´´ factor. I thought they were expecting an increase of passengers with one forecast saying that every seat on every aircraft would be taken! It just goes to show that some people running the world´s busiest international airport haven´t got a clue but are on nice little earners!
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Old 1st Nov 2012, 07:42
  #2086 (permalink)  
 
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Chinese buy 10% of LHR

China's sovereign wealth fund CIC has bought a 10% stake, partly from Ferrovial, in the holding company which owns Heathrow:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20163907
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 09:02
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Originally Posted by compton3bravo
I see in the latest BAA blurb passenger numbers at Heathrow for July and August 2012 were 400,000 down on last year the company stating the ´´Olympic´´ factor. I thought they were expecting an increase of passengers with one forecast saying that every seat on every aircraft would be taken! It just goes to show that some people running the world´s busiest international airport haven´t got a clue but are on nice little earners!
Oh, come on. Even a little reading around the subject would inform you that the 'displacement effect' associated with every Olympic games is well known. Even the official tourism agencies predicted overall season numbers would be down. And which is the forecast of every seat taken to which you refer? If it exists at all, I'd guess it refers to the peak inbound dates and peak outbound dates surrounding the games.
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 10:03
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
China's sovereign wealth fund CIC has bought a 10% stake, partly from Ferrovial, in the holding company which owns Heathrow.
It's a bit difficult to unpick the finances, because even the original purchase price by Ferrovial of BAA was concealed by only declaring the net price of the shares acquired rather than the gross, including all the additional finance costs and fees paid (and boy, were those substantial), but since then there has been the fire sale of Gatwick and Edinburgh, and more recently selling off parts of the overall BAA ownership, but it appears that Ferrovial have lost an absolute packet on the whole Heathrow purchase thing. Which is not to say that their directors of the time and their financial backers (Santander ?) have not pocketed a bomb for themselves along the way.

10% of the Heathrow Topco for £450m values it at £4.5 bn. How much did Ferrovial pay for BAA some years ago ? £11bn plus all the costs ?
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 11:02
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If it exists at all, I'd guess it refers to the peak inbound dates and peak outbound dates surrounding the games.
And in which case, by definition, those flights should be going back (then out again) totally empty. Lots of predictions get made in the hype of something like the Olympics, y.o.y. figs for Sept / Oct onwards would be more interesting.

values it at £4.5 bn
Was that sum not spent on T5 alone? At that price, maybe Silver has a point about sending in the asset strippers and it being worth more closed than open. Surely LHR is a safe, long term bankable yield, unlike the fantasy projects these wealth funds are "supposed" to be interested in?
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 11:36
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figs for Sept / Oct onwards would be more interesting.
Sept 2011: 6.31m Jan-Sep: 52.6m
Sept 2012: 6.35m Jan-Sep: 53.0m
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 11:53
  #2091 (permalink)  
 
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I see in the latest BAA blurb passenger numbers at Heathrow for July and August 2012 were 400,000 down on last year the company stating the ´´Olympic´´ factor. I thought they were expecting an increase of passengers with one forecast saying that every seat on every aircraft would be taken! It just goes to show that some people running the world´s busiest international airport haven´t got a clue but are on nice little earners!
It was only ever hype that London would be full and no rooms to be had anywhere.

I spent a weekend night in London just before the games and paid less than I would have at any other time I can remember, OTOH the hotel was looking to charge £300+ per night basic rate during Olympics.

As been said there was displacement as Athletes and those attending the games displaced the thousands who would normally come to London in July / August.
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 14:40
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it's now seven weeks since the commission was announced, but neither its terms of reference nor details of who the other members are have yet been announced.
Details of the commissioners released today:

"Services Authority chief Sir Howard Davies today introduced his five-strong team that will form the Government-ordered Airports Commission.

Sir Howard, who is also a former CBI boss, joked that his fellow commissioners were acting "for the love of it" as all have chosen not to be paid.

These are the other commissioners:

Sir John Armitt – has had the massively high-profile job as chairman of the Olympic Delivery Authority and is a former chief executive of rail infrastructure company Network Rail. Previous posts have included boss of Union Railways, the company responsible for developing the HS1 – the high-speed Channel Tunnel rail link.

Professor Ricky Burdett – Professor of Urban Studies at the London School of Economics and director of the LSE Cities research centre. He was chief adviser on architecture and urbanism for the London 2012 Olympics and architectural adviser to the Mayor of London from 2001 to 2006.

Vivienne Cox – A former chief executive and executive vice president of BP Alternative Energy and a former member of the BP Executive Management Team. She is the lead independent director on the board of the Department for International Development.

Professor Dame Julia King – Vice Chancellor of Aston University and a member of the Committee on Climate Change. She held a number of senior business and engineering posts at Rolls-Royce, in both the aerospace and marine businesses, between 1994 and 2002.

Geoff Muirhead – The former chief executive of the Manchester Airport Group. He was responsible for leading the planning and delivery of Manchester Airport’s second runway – the only full-length runway constructed in the UK since the Second World War.

The commissioners will be assisted by a panel of experts and can call on Government departmental funds to cover any extra work involving consultants if necessary."

(Terms of Reference to follow)
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 14:47
  #2093 (permalink)  
 
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Davies Commission terms of reference:

"The Commission will examine the scale and timing of any requirement for additional capacity to maintain the UK’s position as Europe’s most important aviation hub; and it will identify and evaluate how any need for additional capacity should be met in the short, medium and long term.

It should maintain a UK-wide perspective, taking appropriate account of the national, regional and local implications of any proposals.

It should engage openly with interested parties and members of the public, providing opportunities to submit evidence and proposals and to set out views relevant to its work.

It should seek to engage with a range of stakeholders, including with local and devolved government as well as the Opposition, to build consensus in support of its approach and recommendations.

The Commission should report no later than the end of 2013 on:

o Its assessment of the evidence on the nature, scale and timing of the steps needed to maintain the UK’s global hub status; and
o Its recommendation(s) for immediate actions to improve the use of existing runway capacity in the next five years – consistent with credible long term options;

The assessments and recommendations in the Commission’s interim report should be underpinned by a detailed review of the evidence in relation to the current position in the UK with regard to aviation demand and connectivity, forecasts for how these are likely to develop, and the expected future pattern of the UK’s requirements for international and domestic connectivity.

Its assessments of potential immediate actions should take into account their economic, social and environmental costs and benefits, and their operational deliverability. It should also be informed by an initial high-level assessment of the credible long-term options which merit further detailed development.

The Commission should report no later than summer 2015 on:

o Its assessment of the options for meeting the UK’s international connectivity needs, including their economic, social and environmental impact;
o Its recommendation(s) for the optimum approach to meeting any needs; and
o Its recommendation(s) for ensuring that the need is met as expeditiously as practicable within the required timescale.

The Commission should base the recommendations in its final report on a detailed consideration of the case for each of the credible options. This should include the development or examination of detailed business cases and environmental assessments for each option, as well as consideration of their operational, commercial and technical viability.

As part of its final report in summer 2015, it should also provide materials, based on this detailed analysis, which will support the Government in preparing a National Policy Statement to accelerate the resolution of any future planning applications for major airports infrastructure."
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 16:11
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As you know I'm against expanding LHR but this team looks like a real Sir Humphrey stitch - up

Sir Howard = a safe pair of hands

These are the other commissioners:

Sir John Armitt – a railway man through & through - not likely to support expansion

Professor Ricky Burdett – no-one has ever found a planner who thinks LHR is in the right place

Vivienne Cox – Alternative energy people don't like LHR either

Professor Dame Julia King – Climate change academic - not likely to support LHR

Geoff Muirhead – The former chief executive of the Manchester Airport Group. - now there is man who will back expanding LHR rather than a regional strategy - I don't think

Last edited by Heathrow Harry; 2nd Nov 2012 at 16:11.
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 16:51
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And no prizes for guessing what deliverable no 2 of the interim (2013) report "recommendation(s) for immediate actions to improve the use of existing runway capacity in the next five years" is going to say.
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 17:11
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the only full-length runway constructed in the UK since the Second World War.
Er don't think so

Liverpool, Edinburgh and East Midlands spring to mind ..........
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 17:36
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Originally Posted by ETOPS
Er don't think so

Liverpool, Edinburgh and East Midlands spring to mind ..........
Yep, keep going - Gatwick, Bristol Lulsgate (both 1950s) and Abbotsinch (1960s) as well. Any others ?

With such inaccuracy (presumably taken from his CV), the committee is sure off to a good start.
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 17:41
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How does one interpret ''full-length'' runway ? What distance does a runway become a ''full length''
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 18:02
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With such inaccuracy (presumably taken from his CV), the committee is sure off to a good start.
Even Manchester Airport, in its own Report and Accounts, makes the rather more modest claim that when the parallel runway was opened in 2001 it was "the first full-length runway built in the UK for commercial use for over 20 years".

Still, he wouldn't be the first person to embroider his CV.

In a previous discussion on this topic here

http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airpo...-built-uk.html

LSG6753 helpfully pointed out that the Government has in the past used 3000m+ as the criterion for defining a "full-length" runway.
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Old 2nd Nov 2012, 18:43
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Any others ?
Manchester R2 was a "full" length parallel runway.

The others were main runways - ie without them you wouldn't have an airport?

this team looks like a real Sir Humphrey stitch - up
Yes Moderator, I think we all agreed on that before!

Unless:

railway man through & through
If he is part of the HS2 lobby, he will have worked out by now that offers almost zero alternative to short haul flying, but bringing it into LHR might help each project boost the other - far more so than Fantasy Island

Professor Ricky Burdett – no-one has ever found a planner who thinks LHR is in the right place
I doubt even WW thinks it is in the right place. It is just in the least wrong place, and in particular it is in a much better place than Estuary Airport.

Vivienne Cox – Alternative energy people don't like LHR either
Depends if they are real alternative people or just oil stooges who have switched to the non fossil stuff.

Professor Dame Julia King – Climate change academic - not likely to support LHR
Nope. Except again, if we put forward an argument of relatives, R3 is primarily about meeting latent demand, whereas Fantasy Island would be creating new demand - if users could ever pay for it.

Of course, far easier to do nothing, or to play on her Aston connections and promote the Birmingham "Solution".

Geoff Muirhead – The former chief executive of the Manchester Airport Group. - now there is man who will back expanding LHR rather than a regional strategy - I don't think.
Nope, million years, not in a.

So not a single person who has actually worked for one of those companies that operates those new fangled metal bird thingies?
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