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Flybe's Fleet Replacement Collapsed Again

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Old 12th Apr 2005, 18:33
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I dont think an A/C presently exists in the same mould of the 146.

Has Embraer gained approval for steep approaches for the 170/190 family yet?
Me thinks the fleet planning bods at FlyBe will continue to have their work cut-out in finding a versatile enough replacement. After all, the Genesis of the 146 can be traced back almost 40 years....most modern designs are put together in a quarter of that time, on the basis of pure economics..and then shoehorned into a role..rather than say the 146 that was based on the concept of STOL/Quiet jet transport.

Just saw MOR's latest comments as I was typing this.....VERY funny The handbag comment..Im gonna save that one for later!
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Old 12th Apr 2005, 19:03
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haughtney

I hear there is such an a/c - the An-148
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Old 12th Apr 2005, 19:21
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If its anything like the last russian beasty I had a try with....eeeeeeeeeekkk.

But seriously....what are its specs?...and could you honestly consider it as a viable option...(snoobery and bragging rights are still high on the list for procurement people in any industry!) for a UK Airline?

I can already see the advertisement announcing the new a/c type

"free bottle of vodka with every ticket sold!"

Ok that was naughty..but you know what I mean
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Old 12th Apr 2005, 19:34
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MOR
How do you figure we're being paid a 'jet' salary?!?!?!

This is all quite amusing. I couldn't really give two hoots seeing as I'm going.
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Old 12th Apr 2005, 19:39
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http://www.aviationnews.com.au/News_...tonovAN148.htm

A 146 with two donks and a wing somewhat further forward
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Old 12th Apr 2005, 21:18
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MOR

even the one with "pilot" experience, whatever that is.
OK, I'll bite,. I detected more than a little cynicism in that comment, which I didn't appreciate too much. The only reason I'm not flying professionally is because the Gulf wars happened at times that messed up plans and cash flow big time, and a subsequent encounter with Big C has also made things a little more complicated.

We may have met, I used to work for SA at DUB, as a lead agent, until the management decided they didn't like the way I dealt with an air ambulance Seneca flight

Flight experience.

SE/ME CPL/IR, and ATPL exams completed when they were done the hard way, as writtens, not multi choice.

500 Logged hours, mostly ME Single Crew IFR around Europe. A lot more time that I can't log in a generic MD83 simulator, and about 250 Hrs in a "generic" A320 style simulator that I helped build and programme that is used by British Aerospace as a research tool for flight deck research, the most recent being secondary systems work. I've also built other sim systems that have been used for things like MCC training back when it was a new and different thing that had to be done in a hurry as a result of the Kegworth 737 crash.

"Real" Simulators, if that's not a contradiction in terms, Citations, Lears, BAC1-11, 737-200, 737-300, 747-200, 747-400, 757, 767, 777, L1011, DC10-30, A320, Concorde, all legally logged as training with instructors.

I'm slightly confused now, this thread is degenerating into a pretty nasty slanging match between various parties within FlyBE, which is slightly worrying.

I could make comments like the 400 is quieter, it's a lot quieter than some of the other TP's mentioned. It's no less "fragile" than things like the SAAB 2000, or the ATR 72, both of which have their moments.

I've handled F27's as a ramper, and while it might well be a nice aircraft to fly, it's a pig on the ground, especially on a dark cold wet slippery ramp trying to pass the nose wheel clamp back in to the flight deck!!!

I could say a lot more, but I won't, other than to agree with several others that the replacement for the 146 is not going to be easy to find, the newer types don't have the versatility and flexibility that the 146/RJ has, and for sure they won't have the build quality.

Anyway, in closing, whatever FlyBE does, I hope it works, I for one want to see them continue to grow in the way they have over the last 18 months.

Cheers

Steve
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Old 12th Apr 2005, 23:03
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Maybe I missed it, but where are we at now then? Are we now to wait another year for the next announcement regarding the jet replacement? Or are Flybe still considering all the other possibilities with an announcement to follow shortly?

It wasn't that long ago that Jim French said that he wanted a 3 fleet airline in order to meet expansion plans and demand - 40 Q400s, 10-15 110 seaters (i.e. RJ100s for the time being), and 3-4 150 seaters. So how exactly does looking at the Embraer 195s fit these needs? Its only a 110 seater isn't it? So does this mean ERJ195s instead of RJ100s and keep on leasing 737s from Astr. for the next few years?

It would be nice to see a definite answer sometime soon.
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Old 13th Apr 2005, 00:39
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Personally, I think that although the Company continues to perform well, the next move will not be the final selection of a replacement for the 146, but the Walker board cashing in their asset via a sale/flotation.
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Old 13th Apr 2005, 04:18
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Irish Steve me old china

Very impressive CV.

No I wasn't being cynical, it is just that you either are an airline pilot, or you aren't. Many who use the term that you did are, in fact, just wannabes who think that because they have delivered a loadsheet to a flight deck a few times, they know how things work. They don't, of course.

BTW I wouldn't use the Gulf War as an excuse for not becoming a professional pilot, many of us have had to push through in some pretty dire circumstances to get where we are. I was caught by the Gulf War too, but frankly I made my own good fortune by exploiting every possible (honourable) opportunity to advance my career. It's up to you to make it happen, don't blame the Gulf War.

Health is another issue of course.

As for the rest, flybe have very limited options regarding their next aircraft. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. My bet is that nothing will happen until they have some serious tens of millions in the bank to placate the nerves of the various manufacturers. Not holding my breath though.

Last edited by MOR; 13th Apr 2005 at 05:37.
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Old 13th Apr 2005, 08:51
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MOR,

Many who use the term that you did are, in fact, just wannabes who think that because they have delivered a loadsheet to a flight deck a few times, they know how things work. They don't, of course.
OK, understood, and I'm not about to argue there, very true and very valid, and it extends right through the handling side of the industry, as I found out the hard way

In fact, any knowledge of aviation would be an improvement for the vast majority of ramp handlers and their managers , I've seen rampers blow up Dash 8's electronics because they didn't even know why they were supposed to use a dedicated GPU for the aircraft, and the management at DUB were as bad, they didn't understand it either, so to them, while it wasn't funny, it was no big deal. I just hope that FLyBE managed to educate them and extract the appropriate financial penalties!!

It wasn't just Gulf that screwed the plans, I was self employed at the time, and as well as Gulf war screwing airline recruitment, ( and unfortunately, Ireland is a very small aviation community, and I'd already not long prior moved the family once, (from UK to Ireland) and to do so again so soon would have screwed up their education big time), there were other work related hassles that made it impossible at the time to do what I really wanted.

Life gets like that sometimes, hard descisions have to be made, and it was the problems of not being able to get into "real" flying that got me into the simulation world instead, and it's been "interesting", for all sorts of reasons.

Age was a factor as well, I'm sure you've read the threads here recently, and by the time things got back to sanity airline and cash flow wise, I was the wrong side of 40, which is an obstacle that is not easily overcome, regardless of any legislation.

Back to the thread.

Agree with you about the choices, they're not going to be easy, and probably now not quick. whichever route they take, it's going to require large sums of money, and they don't happen in a hurry any more, though I am encouraged by the results that are happening now, it's a far cry from a lonely SD360 operating from DUB to EXT, while I personally actually liked the 360, I did a lot of jump seat hours on them when EI operated them from BRS, I can well understand the lack of passenger appeal.

In that respect, and going back to the original theme, from a SLF aspect, when comparing like with like, which is always an issue, the 400 IS a good aircraft, it's reasonably comfortable, quiet, and better than some, and it carries enough people to make it worth while, and seems to be economic to operate, which is unfortunately a very important factor these days. I'd certainly choose a 400 over an EM145 any day, the cabin and locker space on the 145 is so cramped, it's not funny. OK, the 145 is a jet, but that's not the be all and end all of air travel on short routes.

If FlyBE can operate enough of the 400's on the "skinny" routes that people like Ryanair, Easyjet etc can't or won't operate, and can do it profitably, then that's as valid a business plan as any. I did a lot of work a few years ago on a new start up that was going to operate GWY-LTN with ATR's, and if they'd got their AOC when they needed it, life would have been very different. It wasn't going to be making the money that some of the LoCo operators are making, but as a niche operation, it would have worked, as Aer Arran have subsequently proved. Such is life.
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Old 13th Apr 2005, 09:29
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Listen to yourselves! Small willies at dawn it sounds like (sorry er82, good luck on the other side - it's Grrrrreat!! You even get TRAINING!). We know flybe can't run a tap, but they keep on making money and keep you lot in work so whats the problem? Go and work for a proper airline with a proper fleet and a proper training regime and I reckon you will all be too knackered to bang on relentlessly contradicting yoursleves about who has the 'biggest' plane.

If only the fleet was 40 F27's and and a sopwith Camel - then we could make some money! Loco my R's - even the fares are not cheap!
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Old 13th Apr 2005, 09:56
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Loco my R's - even the fares are not cheap!
I needed to get my daughter from DUB to EXT last week at short notice due to a family illness. By short notice, I mean we heard about the problem at 1800, and needed to get her there by 1200 the following day.

Looked at Ryanair and Aer Lingus to Bristol, Ryanair to Bournemouth, and several other option, like Plymouth with Air Wales, and there were several other options further out from EXT.

OK, eventual destination was Exeter, but the nice surprise was that FlyBE was the cheapest we could get unless we wanted her to have to do some serious driving, which made it even better.


By cheaper, I mean that it would have cost about an additional €100 to use Ryanair to BRS, and then we'd have been into a round trip of 180 miles to get to EXT.

FlyBE are competitive. That's good enough for me!

They were competitive for other dates that we've used them for as well, relatively recently, so at the end of the day, they got the business, for the very simple reason that they were competitive.

No, they don't offer 99c flights, but the overall package works. Thats all that I as a reasonably aware SLF can ask for.

And before someone jumps down my neck and says that it was cheap to get the seats filled, both flights my daughter was on were good load factors, they were certainly not struggling numbers wise, so it wasn't a case of desperation for backsides on seats. Even in the depths of February, mid week, when we travelled over, the load factors were reasonable, and that's with the EXT flight now only serving EXT and not going on to Jersey and Guernsey like it used to, and there's now 3 rotations a day to SOU, so something must be right, that's more SOU than any other operator managed to do.

OK, I also know from following threads here over the years that FlyBE has had more than it's share of problems. Be thankful that youy don't have some of the issues that the FR people are on about here, I've seen some of them close hand having worked in DUB. I've also friends who were with FlyBE flying, and they seemed happy enough with the way things were, or, to be more specific, they were in no hurry to move to other things, and at the time, other things were most definitely available. QED
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Old 13th Apr 2005, 10:24
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God...you watch a bit of breakfast telly...(sky news)..and you come back to find 8 more posts!

Irish Steve..Glad to know your a knowledgable guy..as MOR said you get so many armchair experts on here...who quite frankly dont know their arse from grass.

MOR....er 82..flybe..or anyone else actually think the powers that be in Exeter will actually make a decision this side of Halleys Comet returning?
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Old 13th Apr 2005, 10:49
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MOR, we do operate the Dash head to head with Easyjet/Baby etc from time to time. It works. Big deal.

As to the thing being made out of paper or whatever you called it. Yeah it is. Big deal. All new aircraft are like this now. The Airbus has always been said to have less build to it than a Boeing. And I know engineers that convert Boeings to freighters say that the newer Boeings say the 757 onwards aren't built like they used to be! The Embraer has a reputation too I believe. So as much as I agree with you that its not a nice thing to put up with, its a fact of life now. There are few aircraft I fly in now that I can honestly say I feel truly safe in. The 146 is one that I can as its from that era when they were made to last. I see your concerns but the Dash is like any other new commercial aircraft. Built on the cheap, with the aid of computer predictions on what can be got away with.

Hey ho. Life moves on............and the saga continues, now where's that handbag??!!
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Old 13th Apr 2005, 11:33
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Prob30 - you must be one of two people if you've already gone to the other side........

haughtney1 - chances of FlyBE getting a replacement this side of the world ending - zilch. They keep on trying to keep crews sweet with the 'we'll be getting Airbus or Boeing and will announce within three months'. It's been promised as long as I've been in the company and still no sign of a jet that doesn't gas it's passengers!
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Old 13th Apr 2005, 22:35
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The "Big Cheese" is inbound to FlyBe as GM Turboprops from BACX - glad to see him go - best of luck (you'll need it!).
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Old 13th Apr 2005, 23:53
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Cattle Class - is that for real? Why exactly will we need the luck?
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Old 14th Apr 2005, 15:04
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J.H.C! That's all we need.
We've just gotten rid of one Misfit, we don't need another.

I'm sure he'll be welcomed with open arms by his future like minded colleagues and Onanists!
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Old 14th Apr 2005, 16:21
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Smokie - who was the misfit??? I can think of one that we definitely need to get rid of!!
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Old 14th Apr 2005, 16:28
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flybe have really made their money from being a regional airline, and being a regional airline that has taken on the best attributes of being a no-frills airline. I would like to point out that most pax when booking their flight will not look to the type of aircraft, but instead the fare.

With the excellent operating costs of the Q400, these savings are passed on to passengers & help to keep flybe's costs down. The 146 on the other hand, is neither a comfortable aircraft to fly in (3x3 is a pretty tight squeeze & I'm fairly slim!) nor is it as economical as it was in its heyday. I don't understand flybe's lease of the ex-THY Avro RJ100s after all of the problems that they had with that type, but not go for modern jets.

The Embraer EMB-170/190 family is currently not allowed to fly into LCY, although one of the points made when swiss ordered the jets was that they must be allowed to fly into LCY. No doubt Embraer would work on this with any operator who ordered these jets & wanted to use them into LCY. I believe it was the ERJ-170 (70-seat) & ERJ-195 (110-seat) aircraft that were to be LCY-approved. Having flown on United's 170s they are very modern & comfortable aircraft, and management, pax & crews alike seem to like the aircraft.

I'm sure flybe know what they're doing, but being a major player in the regional airline industry is different from flying the 733s. I know flybe seem determined to operate the mainstream flights, but perhaps keeping to its current bread & butter, but with different a/c than the 146 would be a good start!
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