DERRY/LONDONDERRY
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From the Aer Arann thread:
City of Derry airport now showing on Wikipedia as being a hub? Is this a base now for RE? How many aircraft?
Yes & 1.
It looks like it will be operated with a Galway based crew overnighting in Derry. The aircraft seems to operate:
LDY-DUB-LDY-EDI-GWY
Crew change/aircraft swap
GWY-EDI-LDY-MAN-LDY
LDY-DUB-LDY-EDI-GWY
Crew change/aircraft swap
GWY-EDI-LDY-MAN-LDY
The evening DUB-LDY-DUB by a dublin aircraft
Third Faro flight confirmed as Tuesdays on the Ryanair website now. Operating Faro to Derry 06.30 arriving 10.00. Leaving Derry 10.25, arriving Faro 13.55.
Great to see five international routes to "sun" destinations from the airport (Alicante, Faro, Bourgas, Salou and Majorca).
Now we need a few scheduled flights to major European cities too and we'd have a proper little airport in the northwest!
Great to see five international routes to "sun" destinations from the airport (Alicante, Faro, Bourgas, Salou and Majorca).
Now we need a few scheduled flights to major European cities too and we'd have a proper little airport in the northwest!
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Last year, 2009, the airport handled 348,000 pax.
This year LDY is losing LTN (33K) and gaining FAO, MAN and EDI. If each of these flights carry 25K pax then the airport, certeris paribus (all other things being equal - a bit of Latin for ye), should carry about 390K pax.
However, even with additional flights, this will still be lower than 2008 with 438K pax.
Now while my assumption of ceteris paribus may not be accurate as frequency has probably changed on some routes and even if the new flights carry 90K pax instead of 75K, nevertheless the main point I'm trying to draw remains true: the airport needs to get back the twice daily flight to STN. That would be an extra 70K pax which would bring the airport to 460K pax, still less than half a million and no where near the 1 million by 2010 predicted by the council, but at least more than 438K.
Remember, despite my estimate of ~390K pax this year, since the airport's peak at 438K in 2008, it has gained 4 addional routes! Quo Vadis?
This year LDY is losing LTN (33K) and gaining FAO, MAN and EDI. If each of these flights carry 25K pax then the airport, certeris paribus (all other things being equal - a bit of Latin for ye), should carry about 390K pax.
However, even with additional flights, this will still be lower than 2008 with 438K pax.
Now while my assumption of ceteris paribus may not be accurate as frequency has probably changed on some routes and even if the new flights carry 90K pax instead of 75K, nevertheless the main point I'm trying to draw remains true: the airport needs to get back the twice daily flight to STN. That would be an extra 70K pax which would bring the airport to 460K pax, still less than half a million and no where near the 1 million by 2010 predicted by the council, but at least more than 438K.
Remember, despite my estimate of ~390K pax this year, since the airport's peak at 438K in 2008, it has gained 4 addional routes! Quo Vadis?
Last edited by Amelia Earhart; 7th Mar 2010 at 13:09.
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I'll spare everyone from my woeful knowledge of latin and just write this in english lol
Aer Arann route map now updated to show LDY routes. Now if the good people at City of Derry Airport could do the same it would be brilliant. They haven't even added Faro to their route map on the front page and we heard of that months ago!
I wonder what routes were being discussed with Flybe? Or if we will hear anything in the near future? It's good to hear they are interested. Could they be the ones to save our useless London service??
Aer Arann route map now updated to show LDY routes. Now if the good people at City of Derry Airport could do the same it would be brilliant. They haven't even added Faro to their route map on the front page and we heard of that months ago!
I wonder what routes were being discussed with Flybe? Or if we will hear anything in the near future? It's good to hear they are interested. Could they be the ones to save our useless London service??
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They haven't even added Faro to their route map
Would it not make more sense to colourise the flight paths by operator anyway?
On another note, if the new Aer Arann routes are operated by an ATR42 as claimed on the Aer Arann forum then they'd be doing well to carry 25K pax per annum. That'd be 83% loading, Ryanair territory. Even higher on the 6 day per week EDI route, 95%.
Is it possible that it's an ATR42? I thought the DUB PSO was with an ATR72 though I could be wrong, but the same aircraft will be doing the new routes and the morning DUB section.
Otherwise you can knock another 20K pax off the 2010 LDY 390K pax projection.
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Is it possible that it's an ATR42
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would be great if it was a 72
The Belfast airports have grown by providing high frequency, such as with FlyBE when they were Jersey European, whereas LDY until now has only had high volume aircraft with low frequency a la Ryanair which I feel has hamstrung the development of the airport. Don't get me wrong, LDY is very lucky to have Ryanair and it is ideally suited for destinations such as FAO and ALC but for domestic destinations, where frequency is a key growth driver, I think its aircraft are too large to properly serve LDY.
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I agree with what you say Amelia, though I think that if the timetable were different and we had an early morning and evening service to MAN, then I can't see Aer Arann having too many problems filling a 72.
It has been confirmed over on the Aer Arann thread of the whereabouts of base a/c for the coming schedules and it will be 1 x ATR 42 for LDY.
So Galway based crew overnighting at LDY is the current plan. In the future, with the way the current schedule is, there is a possibility that the a/c could just immediately return from the EDI service and go out to BRS or LCY or in the summer to IOM before doing the MAN service. This would require a crew based in LDY though. Fingers crossed for the future.
Also have just noticed that on the airport website timetable drop down box, that Barcelona(Reus) and Palma are missing. I know these are charter flights, but so is Bulgaria and it is listed. I think a brand new website, which is regularly updated, along with better branding and advertising for the airport is required. Just look at NOC for some inspiration!
On a final note, has anyone got some sort of idea on how the Faro seats are selling yet?
It has been confirmed over on the Aer Arann thread of the whereabouts of base a/c for the coming schedules and it will be 1 x ATR 42 for LDY.
So Galway based crew overnighting at LDY is the current plan. In the future, with the way the current schedule is, there is a possibility that the a/c could just immediately return from the EDI service and go out to BRS or LCY or in the summer to IOM before doing the MAN service. This would require a crew based in LDY though. Fingers crossed for the future.
Also have just noticed that on the airport website timetable drop down box, that Barcelona(Reus) and Palma are missing. I know these are charter flights, but so is Bulgaria and it is listed. I think a brand new website, which is regularly updated, along with better branding and advertising for the airport is required. Just look at NOC for some inspiration!
On a final note, has anyone got some sort of idea on how the Faro seats are selling yet?
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Derry News articles
Front page of today's Derry News is reporting that income at LDY fell £263,859 for the lasd nine months of last year. There seems to be a few problems with the figures in the article, they quote passenger numbers down 21.5% (probably correct) or by 20,670 pax - that would mean the airport carried 100,000 pax or 100K pax for the nine months neither of which are correct obviously.
Anyway taking the other figures as correct (and they mightn't be) we have: Income for 9 months was £1,201,055 so annualised pro rata is £1,601,406. Each passenger therefore contributes about £4.63 (1601406 divided by 345857).
The previous year's 9 months figure was £1,464,914 again annualised pro rata is £1,953,219 or £4.50 per passenger ( 1953219 / 438996 ).
The airport lost £3.5 million or something like that in 2008 so dividing £3.5 million by £4.5 or £4.63 gives between 777,777 and 755,940 extra passengers or 1.2 million in total to break even, presupposing that the extra passengers impose no additional costs which is not a sensible supposition.
The council have previously stated that they saw 1 million pax p.a. as the break even point. It's quite difficult finding accounting information for LDY to make a proper judgement but in my opinion it looks more like 1.5 million pax p.a. to break even. That having been said, I think the £3.5 million includes the servicing of capital costs which would have to be serviced anyway even if the lunatic fringe got their way and closed the facility, so maybe in accounting terms £3.5 million should not be the starting point and therefore there exists a lower break even point for passenger numbers in terms of operational losses but at the end of the day the ratepayer only looks at the headline subvention figure.
A second article announced the new CODA (Operations) Ltd. Apparently 12 investors from trhe aviation industry are lining up for a stake. "Our objective is that the ratepayer gets a good deal". Given that the rate payer has already stuck in somewhere in the order of £70 million and given the previous history of privatisation deals elsewhere I'm left wondering will their definition of a good deal match my own.
Faro? Extra flights announced (would indicate good sales) but seat prices well below Alicante prices (would indicate poor sales). Take your pick!
Anyway taking the other figures as correct (and they mightn't be) we have: Income for 9 months was £1,201,055 so annualised pro rata is £1,601,406. Each passenger therefore contributes about £4.63 (1601406 divided by 345857).
The previous year's 9 months figure was £1,464,914 again annualised pro rata is £1,953,219 or £4.50 per passenger ( 1953219 / 438996 ).
The airport lost £3.5 million or something like that in 2008 so dividing £3.5 million by £4.5 or £4.63 gives between 777,777 and 755,940 extra passengers or 1.2 million in total to break even, presupposing that the extra passengers impose no additional costs which is not a sensible supposition.
The council have previously stated that they saw 1 million pax p.a. as the break even point. It's quite difficult finding accounting information for LDY to make a proper judgement but in my opinion it looks more like 1.5 million pax p.a. to break even. That having been said, I think the £3.5 million includes the servicing of capital costs which would have to be serviced anyway even if the lunatic fringe got their way and closed the facility, so maybe in accounting terms £3.5 million should not be the starting point and therefore there exists a lower break even point for passenger numbers in terms of operational losses but at the end of the day the ratepayer only looks at the headline subvention figure.
A second article announced the new CODA (Operations) Ltd. Apparently 12 investors from trhe aviation industry are lining up for a stake. "Our objective is that the ratepayer gets a good deal". Given that the rate payer has already stuck in somewhere in the order of £70 million and given the previous history of privatisation deals elsewhere I'm left wondering will their definition of a good deal match my own.
Faro? Extra flights announced (would indicate good sales) but seat prices well below Alicante prices (would indicate poor sales). Take your pick!
Amelia, I'd take each and every story in the Derry News with a huge portion of rock salt. I'm sure if you asked the same people who operates what routes from LDY they wouldn't know.
The recognised (average/ball park) figure for an airport to break even is 1million pax. This of course doesn't take into account operators like Ryanair, so perhaps LDY would need more than this.
A similar(ish) example of a council run airport being privatised is Exeter. Privatisation there has done good things for the airport, and the council has been able to channel some of the funds generated into developments elsewhere in the city. The difference being, Exeter residents ALL pay council tax, whereas in Derry rates are paid (mainly) by homeowners. So, naturally council income will be very different.
The recognised (average/ball park) figure for an airport to break even is 1million pax. This of course doesn't take into account operators like Ryanair, so perhaps LDY would need more than this.
A similar(ish) example of a council run airport being privatised is Exeter. Privatisation there has done good things for the airport, and the council has been able to channel some of the funds generated into developments elsewhere in the city. The difference being, Exeter residents ALL pay council tax, whereas in Derry rates are paid (mainly) by homeowners. So, naturally council income will be very different.
Speedbird, quote in the following article highlights how Derry to Faro is selling:
Ryanair add Faro flights from Derry Airport : Derry Airport News Stories
Ryanair add Faro flights from Derry Airport : Derry Airport News Stories
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FAO-LDY
Well they would say that wouldn't they. The Faro flight prices are still substantially lower than the Alicante equivalents which presumably has not expericenced 'phenomenal demand' since there hasn't been an additional flight announced. Hard to square that circle. Probably more to do with available aircraft.
'phenomenal demand'
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Northern Ireland European routes
Destination............ 2008 ....... 2009 .......Change .......Departing
Malaga..................187529..... 166017..... -11.5% ...... BFS
Paris.....................141472..... 149399 .... +5.6% ....... BFS & BHD
Barcelona/Reus.......168654..... 129651 ... -23.1% ....... BFS & LDY & BHD
Palma De Mallorca....156641..... 128930 ... -17.7% ...... BFS & LDY
Faro......................128091..... 125419 ..... -2.0% ...... BFS
Amsterdam.............138669....... 91031 .... -34.4% ..... BFS
New York.................99714....... 99794 ...... 0.0% ...... BFS
Alicante...................97098....... 99925 ..... +2.9% ..... BFS & LDY
Tenerife...................93725....... 57196 ... -39.0% ...... BFS
Lanzarote.................66545....... 84993 ... +27.7% ..... BFS
Murcia.....................44132........35980 .... -18.5% ..... BFS
Given the success of the Alicante route from LDY, if someone had asked me which other European routes would definitely work from LDY, I would have been able to say based on 2008 figures that it would be Malaga, Barcelona, Palma, Paris, Amsterdam, Faro and probably Tenerfie.
Looking at the 2009 figures things I'd probably give the same answer but it might be harder to justify. Most routes have lost passengers with only Paris and Lanzarote bucking the trend.
Interestingly Alicante has held its own the only difference being that 13% of passengers went via LDY instead of BFS. (I have included the Murcia figures for comparison as some Murcia passengers from LDY may have choosen LDY-ALC instead of BFS-MJV). On the other hand less passengers have travelled overall from NI to the Costa Blanca, so without the LDY-ALC route perhaps Alicante would have suffered similarly to MJV.
The big losers have been Amsterdam and Tenerife. I'm not sure of the reasons for this although Tenerife seems to have lost alot of scheduled passengers (did they lose a route?) though they have also suffered a loss of charter passengers. Nevertheless the 2008 figures prove that the routes can carry substantial numbers of passengers.
Less passengers all round, no doubt due to the credit crunch / recession / aviation industry problems, etc, but if Faro with its 'phenomenal demand' is a success, then there is no reason why the other routes (except Murcia) couldn't be.
Malaga..................187529..... 166017..... -11.5% ...... BFS
Paris.....................141472..... 149399 .... +5.6% ....... BFS & BHD
Barcelona/Reus.......168654..... 129651 ... -23.1% ....... BFS & LDY & BHD
Palma De Mallorca....156641..... 128930 ... -17.7% ...... BFS & LDY
Faro......................128091..... 125419 ..... -2.0% ...... BFS
Amsterdam.............138669....... 91031 .... -34.4% ..... BFS
New York.................99714....... 99794 ...... 0.0% ...... BFS
Alicante...................97098....... 99925 ..... +2.9% ..... BFS & LDY
Tenerife...................93725....... 57196 ... -39.0% ...... BFS
Lanzarote.................66545....... 84993 ... +27.7% ..... BFS
Murcia.....................44132........35980 .... -18.5% ..... BFS
Given the success of the Alicante route from LDY, if someone had asked me which other European routes would definitely work from LDY, I would have been able to say based on 2008 figures that it would be Malaga, Barcelona, Palma, Paris, Amsterdam, Faro and probably Tenerfie.
Looking at the 2009 figures things I'd probably give the same answer but it might be harder to justify. Most routes have lost passengers with only Paris and Lanzarote bucking the trend.
Interestingly Alicante has held its own the only difference being that 13% of passengers went via LDY instead of BFS. (I have included the Murcia figures for comparison as some Murcia passengers from LDY may have choosen LDY-ALC instead of BFS-MJV). On the other hand less passengers have travelled overall from NI to the Costa Blanca, so without the LDY-ALC route perhaps Alicante would have suffered similarly to MJV.
The big losers have been Amsterdam and Tenerife. I'm not sure of the reasons for this although Tenerife seems to have lost alot of scheduled passengers (did they lose a route?) though they have also suffered a loss of charter passengers. Nevertheless the 2008 figures prove that the routes can carry substantial numbers of passengers.
Less passengers all round, no doubt due to the credit crunch / recession / aviation industry problems, etc, but if Faro with its 'phenomenal demand' is a success, then there is no reason why the other routes (except Murcia) couldn't be.
February stats are out. 2.7% increase in pax at LDY, with LPL, PIK and LTN being the main drivers for (modest) growth.
Good to see, and here's to it continuing for the months to come.
As an aside BHD was up 22.6%, with BFS down (again) 12.3%.
Good to see, and here's to it continuing for the months to come.
As an aside BHD was up 22.6%, with BFS down (again) 12.3%.
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Good to see some improved stats.
On the airport website from 20/05/10 it shows the morning LDY - DUB service as an ATR 72, but the EDI and MAN services as ATR 42's. Now we all know what our airport website is like for badly updating things, but could RE actually be changing the service to the larger 72? It was reported that there was 'passenger demand' for the morning DUB service, so the times were adjusted so the flight departs now at 07.40. Since the same a/c returns to LDY for the EDI and MAN routes, surely these too have to be on 72's?
Any thoughts on this?
On the airport website from 20/05/10 it shows the morning LDY - DUB service as an ATR 72, but the EDI and MAN services as ATR 42's. Now we all know what our airport website is like for badly updating things, but could RE actually be changing the service to the larger 72? It was reported that there was 'passenger demand' for the morning DUB service, so the times were adjusted so the flight departs now at 07.40. Since the same a/c returns to LDY for the EDI and MAN routes, surely these too have to be on 72's?
Any thoughts on this?
Speedbird.......the timetables are apparently incorrect in several ways, not just the reference to ATR72s operating the 0740 to DUB.
For example, there's a flight from BHX arriving LDY at 2100 on Sundays, and then mysteriously never leaves again (unless you check the RYR website, where it departs, unsurprisingly, at 2125).
Poor all round really. Either have a timetable on the website which is correct and current, or do what BHD do, and don't bother.
For example, there's a flight from BHX arriving LDY at 2100 on Sundays, and then mysteriously never leaves again (unless you check the RYR website, where it departs, unsurprisingly, at 2125).
Poor all round really. Either have a timetable on the website which is correct and current, or do what BHD do, and don't bother.
Last edited by cuthere; 15th Mar 2010 at 20:57.
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Either have a timetable on the website which is correct and current, or do what BHD do, and don't bother