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Mytravel shares fall

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Old 22nd Mar 2004, 13:21
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Mytravel shares fall

Anyone know why Mytravel shares have fallen by 50% this morning?
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Old 22nd Mar 2004, 13:24
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acording to the beeb...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3557337.stm

Splat
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Old 22nd Mar 2004, 15:14
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But don't worry, if this drop costs any My Travel Directors their jobs, you may rest assured that they will leave with full pay and benefits!
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Old 22nd Mar 2004, 15:29
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Talking

Well it goes to prove the city really is in the dark most of the time! The debt for equity swap has always been on the cards! Trading looks good so now would be a good time to float the idea. No doubt the share price will fall to new lows as a result.

Really need to apply for a directors post soon though! Clearly dont need to be very good to make loads of money as most UK company directors continue to prove!

Last edited by kinsman; 22nd Mar 2004 at 22:13.
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Old 23rd Mar 2004, 09:12
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Post Mytravel AGM statement

agm contains:

The form and terms of any restructuring and its effect on the value of the shares will depend on a number of factors and cannot be predicted with any certainty. However, we have to recognise that any restructuring may result in very significant dilution of the interests of shareholders.
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Old 23rd Mar 2004, 17:11
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Mytravel shares fall

QWERTIOP et al

I seem to remember a recent thread on Aircrew notices (Misc)
About having to have a medical on a day off.

I wonder how the girls are feeling about that today. Seems to me that there are going to be a lot of days off soon.

Rgds FPG
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Old 23rd Mar 2004, 23:24
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Wink

FaPoGai

Then I guess you have not been keeping up with events!
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Old 24th Mar 2004, 07:42
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hi all

For just information the day when the shares had dropped only 5p, all shares dropped that day, Easyjet for example dropped 12p, this is not bad news, it was everyone, not just mytravel, i read there financial report, and if they do and plan to do what they say, they are worth investing in big time..
Mike
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Old 24th Mar 2004, 08:01
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A 5p drop for MYT is a much larger percentage than 12p for Easyjet but they will probably creep up again, as they have before. Looks like they will survive, as have Marconi, British Energy, Invensys and a few others recently which have been in similar positions. But obviously all the bad publicity and now talk of restructuring pushes down the price. They may be turning round the business but the debt mountain can only be addressed by restructuring and possibly a rights issue. Until then any earnings go straight to the banks.
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Old 24th Mar 2004, 21:22
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Also bear in mind chaps that the shares were MyTravel group not just the airline, which I must add are way up on bookings for the summer. Just try and book on-line.
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Old 25th Mar 2004, 07:57
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Where have the booking figures been published. All I've heard (from the AGM), is that 'bookings are in line with expectations'.

k
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Old 25th Mar 2004, 14:54
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From Travel Trade Gazette

March 19th 2004 -04:36 PM
Operators sold 14 per cent more summer 2004 holidays through high street agencies in February compared with the same month a year earlier – but cumulative shop sales are 14 per cent down on 2003.
Holidays sold through direct channels were one per cent up in February, but remain two per cent behind last year’s levels for the summer season to date.
ACNielsen figures show Thomas Cook sold 26 per cent more holidays through shops last month, while TUI, First Choice and MyTravel posted rises of 16 per cent, 11 per cent and one per cent respectively.
First Choice sold seven per cent more holidays through direct channels in February, Thomas Cook was up by six per cent and TUI an extra 11 per cent, while MyTravel’s figures were down by 27 per cent.
Total holiday sales for the big four were nine per cent up last month, but the market is still cumulatively 12 per cent down.
First Choice sold 110,000 holidays against MyTravel’s 147,000, Thomas Cook’s 139,000 and TUI’s 182,000.
February revenues were up 15 per cent thanks to an average selling price of £563 compared with £534 last February, but cumulatively revenues are three per cent down despite the average selling price for the season to date being £594 against £539 in 2003.
In retail, First Choice shops sold 56,000 holidays in February, up 27 per cent on the same month the previous year; MyTravel shops sold 91,000, up six per cent; Thomas Cook shops sold 100,000, up 13 per cent; TUI shops sold 130,000, up 20 per cent; and the Co-ops sold 84,000, up 25 per cent.
But cumulatively, First Choice shops are still two per cent down, MyTravel outlets are 47 per cent down, Thomas Cook shops are one per cent down, TUI shops are level and Co-ops are one per cent ahead.
February saw a slight improvement in Spain bookings, which were down just five per cent against its cumulative position of minus 23 per cent.
Last month’s big winners were Turkey, up 218 per cent; Tunisia, up 118 per cent; and Cyprus and Florida, both up 38 per cent. • See this week's TTG for TUI’s Peter Rothwell on Spain
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Old 25th Mar 2004, 16:11
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So that's good news then. Sales are up but they're down.
Or is it bad news because they're down but they're up?
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Old 25th Mar 2004, 19:13
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Cool

Some important factors to consider when reading the TTG article:

1. They got their figures wrong in January as far as I can see from reading this article.

2. They make no allowance for operators having cut capacity this year.

3. They make no mention of how good the margins are! Because of course they don't know! This is the most important point as proved last year. No point in selling more holidays if you are not making money! One operator this year has cut it's margins offering discounts that cannot be making them much or any profit. They have done this in a bid to see MYT off! They appear to have failed with what must be a high risk stratergy given the state of the industry as a whole!

It would appear MYT have turned the corner and are hitting their targets for recovery. As I said in an earlier post a debt for equity swap or some other method of clearing debt was always on the cards. I would not be surprised to see MYT return to an operating profit this year rather than 2005 but they will need to restructure to return to full health and that is what the board have said they are looking at. I am sure they would have liked to anounce this last year but I guess they first needed to prove they could get the company back on track and at last there are strong signs they have achieved this.


Any truth in the rumour TC UK are being sold by the Germans?
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Old 25th Mar 2004, 19:30
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No point in selling more holidays if you are not making money! One operator this year has cut it's margins offering discounts that cannot be making them much or any profit.

Not like any other firm I can think of from the last few years


'Any truth in the rumour TC UK are being sold by the Germans?'

Glass houses
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Old 26th Mar 2004, 14:51
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Beardy

If you are going to quote me at least keep my comments in context, unless of course you want to work for the Mail On Sunday! I thought I made the point that MYT had not got it right in the recent past but perhaps I was too subtle, as I did not mention them by name!

As for living in "glass houses" I asked a question! Or should I take it from your reply that one should only ask questions that relate to MYT not TC? As it happens I am sure MYT would be for sale if anyone wanted to buy it! I was told that TC UK was for sale by some of TC crews, this was denied a while ago by the UK MD but that normally is a good indicator that the reverse is true! I can't really see that anyone with enough money would really be interested in buying any UK tour operator at the moment but who knows? However, for the record the rumour has it a management buy out is in the offing, the guys I spoke to seemed to think this would be good news. Perhaps you don't share that view?
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Old 26th Mar 2004, 15:44
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Is the TTG still published by Thomsons. Always thought it strange that Britannia Airways (Thomson owned) was voted the best charter airline 7 years in a row by the TTG (Thomson owned).
As for the figures. It doesn't say whether these reflect the number of holidays available for sale compared to last year. Since MYT have made some significant cutbacks in this area it's hardly surprising that they have sold 'less' than last year.

BTW share price currently 10.25p. That's a rise of 25% over the last couple of days. Don't seem to be able to find the headline for it though!
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Old 26th Mar 2004, 16:59
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Rumours are abound at TC that the profit-making UK arm may be sold off but they are only rumours at the moment and nothing more. A management buyout is being mooted with venture capitalists involved.

The UK arm made over £30m last year and is targeting a profit of £55m this year. I personally would think that there would be potential buyers for a well-run operation making money.

That said, TC is employing Lufthansa group pilots this summer so I doubt any move to sell the UK arm off is imminent.

As for MYT, IMHO, the banks have committed so much to keeping them afloat that a debt for equity swap with further rationalisation of their operations is the likely outcome. The poor shareholder will be the victim as he is well down the pecking order in terms of debt priority.

My bet is they will be de-listed and taken private by the banks if they survive. Hope they do for everyones sakes.
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Old 26th Mar 2004, 17:23
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Cool

Agree with most of the above except I doubt the banks have any interest in taking MYT private, unless it is with the intention of re-floating it and recovering their money.
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Old 26th Mar 2004, 17:48
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MyTravel share price

This is a cautionary not for all those looking at MyTravel as a bargain.

First off to set the record straight I think MYT has always been a great opperator and staff are great and hope they pull through and get into profit etc etc etc.

HOWEVER

I've been following them closely as a investment option for well over 6 months and the start of March was the time to dive in, as historically the share price rallys in the summer.

This is exactly what happened at the start of March. I stuck in some cash and after a week had made 20%...nice!

However after this rise and the fact MYT was the only share not to drop after the Madrid bombings made a few city "experts" take a closer look at things. What they found was a company riddled with debt and putting off a return to profit AGAIN. "Shares" magasine 2 weeks ago did a snapshot on it and has put it in the timebomb catagorey along with Eurotunel!!

So...I got out.

Low and behold they announce share dillution.

All hope of a rally for their shares this summer is over. They are certainly only for big time gamblers...not widdows and orphans.

Wouldn't suprise me if they do hit the 1- 3p mark if more bad news is forthcoming, but 10p is their stable ground for now. If they go below 5p all bullish bets will be off and the city boys will pull everything out and let the price slide.

Sorry to be down on MYT - I was hoping for some good news about them for their staff's sake.

If you want to put you money anywhere, put it in BA (BAY) it's still the city's darling blue chip share (and always will be) and has already starting to recover after Madrid, with expectation of it getting back to the highs of 340p in next month or so.

Get in Monday - You might still nick some at 270p if your lucky at start of trading.

Good luck punters...and good luck MYT!!!!!
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