Zs-gaa Missing Near Plett?

[Cacophonix]

The SA CAA publishes a break cloud procedure for RWY30 @ Plettenberg Bay. The OCH is 844ft with an initial approach altitude of 6,300ft or higher. Field elevation is 465ft. The point is made on the plate that the procedure is entirely at the discretion of the PIC.

Thanks for that info C Cheetah.

http://www.caa.co.za/resource%20cent.../S012-10LP.pdf

[cavortingcheetah]

That the cloud break was a procedure outside controlled airspace.

[27Foxtrot]

Shrike
Ok, by now we should all know that it's very easy to sound like a sanctimonious dick when making comments.

You know why I'm able to sound like a sanctimonious dick? I'm alive. Everyone here has been in a marginal weather situation. If you didn't take power and establish a positive rate of climb and divert you have no right to refer to yourself as a profesional pilot.

You don't and shouldn't get kudos for making marginal approaches, which is what seems to happen too often.

What happened here? The aircraft crashed during an approach below minima. THAT is the fact. WHY the aircraft was making an approach below minima is possibly up for debate.

Yes this is Monday morning quaterbacking. However the terrain aroung FAGG and FAPG is dangerous. Especially when combined with the WX they get. How many of the planes lost in the mountains there, or without trace experienced mechanical problems? I am confident enough to say most of them were trying to buck the system.

The cloud break isn't a very precise procedure. It cant be because of the lack of facilities at Plett. All that means is the plane should have diverted long before it was 500' south of the coast. Hell airfield elevation alone is 465'.

Sir KDM Lowe, you too. Why do you say whe should STFU? What a load of Bull****. FAGG and FAPG are DANGEROUS in bad weather. How many people have died because of it? None. They all died because pilots tried to fly through the bad weather, below minima or off the procedures. IF we can get just ONE pilot to think "screw this for a lark" and divert, then it is not in vain.

The lesson IS clear, Divert. Just because you aren't privy to the information does not mean other aren't. The radar tracks and the accident report are available if you know where to look. I can't help you there because I have to protect my sources, but they are available.

This forum is meant to be about sharing information, right? The information available is the weather was below minima. The pilot made an approach. The approach flown wasn't the published cloud break. The aircraft crashed.

The pilot has the final responsibility for the safety of the aircraft. I understand you and others want the benifit of the doubt to go to the pilot. I do as well. I'd also be fighting for the pilot's name and reputation if there wasn't a very well laid out set of minima that were disregarded. The rules are there to keep you safe, not to prevent you flying to your destination.

Lets wait for the CAA's report, sure. But in the meantime IF THE WEATHER IS MARGINAL OR BELOW MINIMA, DIVERT!. You can always make the flight later. It's hard to do that when you've bought the farm.

27F

[V1... Ooops]

Originally Posted by 27Foxtrot

...The aircraft crashed during an approach below minima. THAT is the fact. WHY the aircraft was making an approach below minima is possibly up for debate.

Sir:

The error in your assumption is that you are presuming that both the aircraft and the pilot were in perfect condition and that the pilot wilfully descended below minima.

It is entirely possible that some entirely unrelated cause may have affected the pilot or the aircraft, and caused it to impact the sea. In other words, the causal factor may have presented itself long before the aircraft ever descended to the minima, or during the process of carrying out a missed approach from at or above the minima.

Michael

[TAVLA]

ALL indications are that this was an instance of the most common (non airline) coastal instrument approach in SA (probably Africa).

Descend as low as you dare out to sea (using the gps), and then sneak back to the airfield under the fog (again using the gps).

Separate people from the problem. This is not a criticism of the pilots concerned, it is a criticism of all the pilots (probably several hundred) who knowingly descend below GRIDMORA over the sea to get into IMC airfields. It is a criticism of a system that seems to tolerate if not encourage cowboy behavior.

Hopefully CAA will start taking action......

[Shrike200]

27 Fox,

I'm alive too, but that doesn't make me some kind of aviation legend, and there's literally nothing in your post that most people here didn't know already - the lesson you're essentially trying to impart is "Don't bust minima." Do you have any other pearls of wisdom? How about - Don't run out of fuel? Or...Don't overload your aircraft? My point being that you're preaching without a) knowing all the facts, or b) apportioning blame without knowing the facts and c) telling us all things that are blindingly obvious, even if they are conclusions that are arrived at without facts. It should be clear that despite how obvious these things are may seem, pilots and passengers continue to be killed by them. Clearly, knowledge of these facts is not the problem.

And it's not that I'm trying to give the benefit of the doubt to the pilot - as I said, IF it becomes apparent that they screwed up, then thats the way it was. But right now, nobody really knows anything. So chill.

[TAVLA]

suitcaseman

I never said airlines landed at Plett. I know Plett very well. I was referring to the most common form of IF approach carried out by non-airline operations to small coastal airfields.

You know as well as I do that this types of approach is carried out at numerous airfields/aerodromes along our coastline. You also know that descent below GRIDMORA for this kind of approach is illegal, as is the visual(!) segment to get to the field.

Once again I am not having a go at the crew mentioned, merely the system which is allowing and encouraging it.

[Propellerpilot]

After all PC12=Single Engine - if they were in the situation of an Engine failure, trying a forced landing over the sea might not have been the worst decision - but I read nothing of a MAYDAY call being submitted, so it must of happened very quickly. Sounds more like a CFIT to me.

I know it's the same speculation clearly on hand.

[Selfloader]

Bad weather, no nav aids, attempted scud running and then CFIT. It has happened how many thousands of times in the last 100 years and will continue to happen even in this modern age of "professionalism". And frankly I don't think there was anything wrong with the aircraft. No distress comms from the crew and a witness heard the engine power up - obviously too late to have any effect. What happened in Cork yesterday, despite the crew having access to all the help they needed. Very sad.

[The Ancient Geek]

Michael:

It is entirely possible that some entirely unrelated cause may have affected the pilot or the aircraft, and caused it to impact the sea. In other words, the causal factor may have presented itself long before the aircraft ever descended to the minima, or during the process of carrying out a missed approach from at or above the minima.

Indeed.
In my previous posts I was careful to say that other factors may well be found. In the absence of any reports of emergency communications we can however only suspect the obvious cause.
This is not the time to be attributing blame, we simply do not know.

It is however important for those of us (and ISTR this includes you) who know the area and the typical conditions to remind the younger and less experienced pilots that the only safe option is to divert. Stooging around looking for holes just burns up the fuel that could have taken you to a safe landing elsewhere. None of us is perfect but it falls upon those of us who have pushed our luck in the past, scared ourselves sh*tless but survived, to warn others against the fatal temptations.

As I said before, there but for the grace........

Be well and fly safe.

[Bobanweave]

From what I have heard, one of the victims called a contact at the airport @ 16h30, indicating that they were diverting and heading to George. They were halfway through another sentence when the phone went dead. A subsequent call to reconnect was not successful.

Seems like there was no fear, crisis, anxiety. Completely oblivious to impending danger. Simply on a phone call and then next instant crashing into the ocean surface. How could that have happened?

My sincere condolences to all on board. You will be forever missed.

[The Ancient Geek]

So some idiot was using a cellphone in the aircraft while it was manoevering at low level. Yea right.
Now we have a possible cause.

[Propellerpilot]

We will probably never know...

[27Foxtrot]

Suitcaseman

Always give the crew the benefit of the doubt unless you know otherwise for a fact. None of us were there so we don't know the facts.

Why? Benifit of the doubt is good and all in a criminal proceeding or a civil case, this is neither. This is a forum of pilots, some of whom will be flying into Plett later this year with marginal weather conditions. Stressing the "give it up and try again later" point can not be stressed enough.

I never said George/Plett was unique in it's danger, but that does not stop it being dangerous. Non precision approaches to uncontrolled airfields is dangerous. Doing it in marginal weather is even more so. Doing it in a part of the world where there are big mountains on the one side and the Indian ocean on the other, with very little in the way of flat, easy to land on ground between them is even more dangerous.

While no one can say for certain if the aircraft was visual with the airfield at MDA, the fact the radar track clearly shows it flying low level around the point at about 500' fairly well shows the Cloud Break was not being flown. If they were visual at MDA and then lost the field, they should have gone around. Not stooged around the coast.

V1....oops. Yes there are many different things that could have happened. However the fact was the aircraft was flying low level over water.

Shrike, yes it is obvious isn't it. How come so many bloody pilots disregard it? Too many CFIT's happen in that part of SA for it to be "obvious". Stating the obvious isn't a bad thing if people are ignoring the obvious.

As for other gems like don't run out of gas? Well that is a good one. Divert if you are getting low. Don't push it. Again we've all seen people die because they pushed how far the fuel "should" get them. Marginal weather and diverting or even just doing a go around to try again should be encouraged.

The Ancient Geek said it much more eloquently than I did, and I will QFT his post.

who know the area and the typical conditions to remind the younger and less experienced pilots that the only safe option is to divert. Stooging around looking for holes just burns up the fuel that could have taken you to a safe landing elsewhere. None of us is perfect but it falls upon those of us who have pushed our luck in the past, scared ourselves sh*tless but survived, to warn others against the fatal temptations.

As I said before, there but for the grace........

That was the point I was trying to make.

[Selfloader]

well actually if that is the case, it won't take too long to find out. CAA just needs to find out the cellphone numbers of all on board, which they will get from Italtile, then check with each's network to find out who, if anyone, on the aircraft made a call at or about 4:30pm and there's your answer.

[Mile High Flyer]

Opinions

Hi all,
Everybody is entitled to there own opinion, but nobody will ever know what went on in that flight deck at that moment in time. We landed in George when all this was going on and heard ATC asking other aircraft to try make contact with GAA, to which "No Joy" was the reply. We broke cloud on the ILS for RWY29 into George at Minima's even so, the vis below cloud was poor and it was drizzling at the airfield. My immediate reaction when I heard the terrible news was, What were they thinking! Then one needs to think back on times where we all have had close calls and done things which we promise never to try again. Maybe they were not granted a second chance or maybe a condition existed that we know nothing about. When you are flying a Monitored approach with the assistance of an Autopilot, A experienced Captain/First Officer and EFIS equipment, the stresses are enormous, and it's so easy to get disorientated or slightly behind the drag curve. We don't know what stresses or situations they were in at the time so making assumptions is perhaps slightly unfair.
What we can all do is learn from others experiences.
Fly Safe Guys....
My sincere condolences to all family and friends of the victims.

[Mike X]

Bless you, MHF.

[oompilot]

But in the meantime IF THE WEATHER IS MARGINAL OR BELOW MINIMA, DIVERT!

I must disagree with your post regarding when to divert. You make assumptions regarding what information the crew had access to in the cockpit.

Some pointers

1. This is an unmanned airport and therefore no way of knowing the actual weather on the ground. Yes we have a TAF from departure but it may be incorrect or 6 or 12 hours old, so you don't actually know the weather conditions until you get to minima.

2. Fly to minima and go-around. That is 100% legal.

3. If you see and lose the runway or visual reference then try again, but after the second attempt divert.

If you as a commercial pilot are never going to attempt approaches at unmanned airfields because the TAF printed out earlier said marginal weather you wont have a job for long. You have 2 legal alternates, what is the problem.
This is what this crew did. If you have access to other 'privileged' info suggesting otherwise, as you boasted and you wont let anyone see it then don't criticize the comments above. What a strange individual!

[cavortingcheetah]

Well, I wouldn't want to start a barrack room lawyer brawl on distinctions of 100% legals but that raises a couple of interesting thoughts.
What was the weather at Plettenberg Bay forecast to be within the time bands either side of flight plan arrival time.
With that past forecast in mind then what was the weather forecast to be at either alternate either side of the arrival window following a diversion from Plettenberg Bay.
What and where was the last fuel uplift and was a note made of the start and finish in tanks fuel figure thus enabling a total fuel on board to be calculated at that last point of fuel uplift?

[NOTOT]

Mile High.......

"When you are flying a Monitored approach with the assistance of an Autopilot, A experienced Captain/First Officer and EFIS equipment, the stresses are enormous, and it's so easy to get disorientated or slightly behind the drag curve........."

Man up buttercup, or would you like mommy sitting behind u stroking your hair and telling you "that's my big,smart boy"

It don't get easier than that!(Unless you are CATIII rated)

As for the crew in question, sad, very sad! RIP

Time will tell, let the "boxes" play out the whole grim chain of events.

P.S
All the best players sit in the stands............................