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I agree. Sorry if I had to bore you but Journeyman needed the explanation it seems.
How about getting back to some meaningful dialogue here. Back to the initial thread about the LCC.
I would like to know what the guys at the LCC have been told in terms of how many of SAA's -800's they are going to take. Initially they said 4, but anything up to 10. Anyone with any latest gen? Guys on -800's at SAA are worried that the domestic will shrink, but apparently there is talk of more aircraft coming our way, and presentations by Boeing and Airbus will be made shortly.
How about getting back to some meaningful dialogue here. Back to the initial thread about the LCC.
I would like to know what the guys at the LCC have been told in terms of how many of SAA's -800's they are going to take. Initially they said 4, but anything up to 10. Anyone with any latest gen? Guys on -800's at SAA are worried that the domestic will shrink, but apparently there is talk of more aircraft coming our way, and presentations by Boeing and Airbus will be made shortly.
Last edited by FO Gyro; 19th Sep 2006 at 18:46.
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I think the SAA guys on the -800 are quite justified in their concern that the domestic will shrink - that is more than likely the whole purpose of the exercise. The other players in the market will probably survive - the hardest hit will be the operator with the least nimble cost-structure. If you can't adapt to the changing market, you will surely perish.
Slightly off the topic - I flew my R/C aircraft yesterday for ten minutes, but I think it warrants about two hours in the logbook because I was using both thumbs at the same time (and a forefinger, if you count putting the gear down).
(Disclaimer: the above is lighthearted banter and should in no way be construed as a dig at the previous post).
Slightly off the topic - I flew my R/C aircraft yesterday for ten minutes, but I think it warrants about two hours in the logbook because I was using both thumbs at the same time (and a forefinger, if you count putting the gear down).
(Disclaimer: the above is lighthearted banter and should in no way be construed as a dig at the previous post).
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RC is intense I must agree. I have only flown one of those once and it was by far the most intense 5 minutes of flying I have ever done!! Hectic on the heart rate!
Gyro why dont you work us out a formula for crediting different kinds of flying vs experience gained vs stick time/skills vs bunk time vs autopilot time vs VFR vs CAT 111b vs your gyro time!
Gyro why dont you work us out a formula for crediting different kinds of flying vs experience gained vs stick time/skills vs bunk time vs autopilot time vs VFR vs CAT 111b vs your gyro time!
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Maybe I should. I must say the most difficult flying I've ever done, is R/C heli flying. 1 hour there definitely worth 1000hrs! The skill the proficient guys demonstrate there is unbelievable. Seriously though, although in jest, you are quite right that a guy that does Cat 111 approaches daily is more experienced at them, than me for example, that has done 1 or 2 one in anger (in 10 years of domestic flying, must be a VFR pilot only I guess)! Should count for something. Only might count when looking for work. Once there, means nothing.
Getting back to the LCC, at a meeting the other day, Gen Manager, Flt Ops, said the the LCC would be a subsidiary of SAA, but not be subsidised (I know most will find that hard to swallow). Unfounded rumours amongst the -800 guys are that in a year's time we will be sitting at home, with no work. Just a rumour I hope. Then in the same breath he was talking of new aircraft for the domestic. Not sure if the market can take all these different players.
Getting back to the LCC, at a meeting the other day, Gen Manager, Flt Ops, said the the LCC would be a subsidiary of SAA, but not be subsidised (I know most will find that hard to swallow). Unfounded rumours amongst the -800 guys are that in a year's time we will be sitting at home, with no work. Just a rumour I hope. Then in the same breath he was talking of new aircraft for the domestic. Not sure if the market can take all these different players.
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Gyro, the advent of the LCC has been a real positive for the short haul fleet- there is an INCREASE in capacity domestically for the northern winter schedule. Routes that will benefit are CPT and DUR where, each will get additional frequencies- wide bodies added are in ADDITION to the current 738/319 operations and we are going to add More 738 frequencies where we are spilling traffic unnecessarily to competitors. The net effect is that there is an increase of and hour and a half per aircraft per day across the whole 738 fleet. The 319 fleet also benefits for a slightly lesser extent – 1 hour extra per aircraft per day. We will also enjoy a reciprocal increase in utilization on the long haul fleet of between- 2. 5 and 1.5 hours per aircraft per day- depending on the aircraft type. Although this increase is more about operating additional frequencies to long haul destinations than it is about flying them domestically. But you will see them all on the domestic routes- even the 744!
At this point in time SAA’s domestic route network is doing well - this given the fact that all of our competitors offer cheaper fares and more incentives to both travel agents and corporates. This seems to support the strategy that is currently being rolled out where the premium market segment will continue to fly SAA.
In terms of aircraft to the LCC- its all about which part of the business can make more out of the asset. Right now more 800’s will be operating regional routes as well as operating more domestic ones- so their contribution per plane to the bottom line has also gone up, what the LCC chaps have forgotten is that all their numbers are based historical data for a larger fleet- SAA’s performance going forward is going to be much better, me thinks a fair head butting session is going to ensue. Their only option may be to source capacity outside SAA , either that or the fleet expansion plans will have to be brought forward- but again, this will not alleviate their short term need for growth and so I’m convinced they will go for an alternative source.
As things stand perhaps they could have another two or three aircraft (in addition to the 4) – the capacity gap being made up of long haul aircraft. I suppose one could also argue that the right thing will be to take the reduction in capacity as we have yet to see how the current customer base of flysaa.com will react to the LCC- I’m very sure there will be a migration by some- but Im not sure if all of them will go- particularly the SME customer segment which is growing by the day.
I don’t forsee any need for concern at this point among the 800 crew- where it could be argued that we were under resourced in any case. If more aircraft do go over then the increased demands placed on the long haul fleet will necessitate an increase in the crew compliment which I suppose would come from the guys currently on the 800’s. The only negative to the pilot body would probably be some guys not wanting to fly long haul?
My 2(Zim) cents worth!
At this point in time SAA’s domestic route network is doing well - this given the fact that all of our competitors offer cheaper fares and more incentives to both travel agents and corporates. This seems to support the strategy that is currently being rolled out where the premium market segment will continue to fly SAA.
In terms of aircraft to the LCC- its all about which part of the business can make more out of the asset. Right now more 800’s will be operating regional routes as well as operating more domestic ones- so their contribution per plane to the bottom line has also gone up, what the LCC chaps have forgotten is that all their numbers are based historical data for a larger fleet- SAA’s performance going forward is going to be much better, me thinks a fair head butting session is going to ensue. Their only option may be to source capacity outside SAA , either that or the fleet expansion plans will have to be brought forward- but again, this will not alleviate their short term need for growth and so I’m convinced they will go for an alternative source.
As things stand perhaps they could have another two or three aircraft (in addition to the 4) – the capacity gap being made up of long haul aircraft. I suppose one could also argue that the right thing will be to take the reduction in capacity as we have yet to see how the current customer base of flysaa.com will react to the LCC- I’m very sure there will be a migration by some- but Im not sure if all of them will go- particularly the SME customer segment which is growing by the day.
I don’t forsee any need for concern at this point among the 800 crew- where it could be argued that we were under resourced in any case. If more aircraft do go over then the increased demands placed on the long haul fleet will necessitate an increase in the crew compliment which I suppose would come from the guys currently on the 800’s. The only negative to the pilot body would probably be some guys not wanting to fly long haul?
My 2(Zim) cents worth!
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Deskjockey,
Your post makes perfect sense - especially the "In terms of aircraft to the LCC- its all about which part of the business can make more out of the asset" bit.
Remember the days of Flightstar and the crystal glasses and stainless steel cutlery - a nice idea but at the end of the day, on the short domestic routes, people generally just want to get to the other end as quickly as possible. Yes, there will always be a small niche for the Krug and caviar brigade, but as has been so patently proved the world over, LCCs work!
So then, in light of what has been said, if you had one 738 to give to an operator to turn a profit (on the same route structure), who would you choose? The high cost base guys or the ones that don't give away free beer, don't give away free anything, pay their crews less and probably argue over 2 cents for a fortnight but still get the pax to destination with equal efficiency/frequencies?
If the answer is the latter, why just give them one 738 - give them 20!
PS I know I'm over-simplyfing the situation, but I'm sure you get the gist of it.
Your post makes perfect sense - especially the "In terms of aircraft to the LCC- its all about which part of the business can make more out of the asset" bit.
Remember the days of Flightstar and the crystal glasses and stainless steel cutlery - a nice idea but at the end of the day, on the short domestic routes, people generally just want to get to the other end as quickly as possible. Yes, there will always be a small niche for the Krug and caviar brigade, but as has been so patently proved the world over, LCCs work!
So then, in light of what has been said, if you had one 738 to give to an operator to turn a profit (on the same route structure), who would you choose? The high cost base guys or the ones that don't give away free beer, don't give away free anything, pay their crews less and probably argue over 2 cents for a fortnight but still get the pax to destination with equal efficiency/frequencies?
If the answer is the latter, why just give them one 738 - give them 20!
PS I know I'm over-simplyfing the situation, but I'm sure you get the gist of it.
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journeyman,
If the LCC can generate more revenue than mainline with the aircraft, then there will be no argument at all- the point I’m trying to make here is that currently the domestic and the regional route network (who use the 800’s) are the main revenue drivers for SAA at the moment- we are talking profit here for the first 6 months of the year in the hundreds of millions of rands- my question is can the LCC make more than this- especially given the fact that they have no regional routes? Remember its all about the cost to revenue ratio…low costs but equally low revenue….. The removal of aircraft from mainline to the LCC has a fundamental effect on both the cost base as well as the revenue generating capability of mainline- its all about balance. From November mainline will do the same job with a lower cost base (4 less aircraft)- so the LCC has already generated dividends.
I think the ideal number of aircraft to send to the LCC will be about 7 to 8- after that mainline will make more money out of them than the LCC. Im not saying the LCC will not do well- not at all- their future is bright……orange!
If the LCC can generate more revenue than mainline with the aircraft, then there will be no argument at all- the point I’m trying to make here is that currently the domestic and the regional route network (who use the 800’s) are the main revenue drivers for SAA at the moment- we are talking profit here for the first 6 months of the year in the hundreds of millions of rands- my question is can the LCC make more than this- especially given the fact that they have no regional routes? Remember its all about the cost to revenue ratio…low costs but equally low revenue….. The removal of aircraft from mainline to the LCC has a fundamental effect on both the cost base as well as the revenue generating capability of mainline- its all about balance. From November mainline will do the same job with a lower cost base (4 less aircraft)- so the LCC has already generated dividends.
I think the ideal number of aircraft to send to the LCC will be about 7 to 8- after that mainline will make more money out of them than the LCC. Im not saying the LCC will not do well- not at all- their future is bright……orange!
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DJ I am not convinced, I still think the 800 is the wrong aircraft for the job and clearly so do the competition they want the LCC to prove how they intend making a profit with this aircraft, they must have a good reason for wanting this they have been in the LCC game a while now.
Yes they are putting 186 or so seats in the LCC aircraft, however they are getting rid of 30 something business class seats, I can’t see how they are going to make more money. Was chatting to a knowledgeable person the other day, the main cost to the LCC is the aircraft lease and apparently they need to reduce the cost per seat by R80 to be successful, the cost saving per seat from the lower paid crews is just R8 so there is no way in hell in my opinion they will succeed.
This whole LCC thing is built on a shaky foundation, firstly I don’t see how they are going compete with the competition using 800's I think a new hole will be torn into SAA from the competions board. Secondly apparently they require the crew to do six legs a day with 20 min turn arounds.......Impossible, it takes 15-20 min for 157 passengers just to get off an 800, I wonder if the genius’s have even thought of looking at the brake cooling charts. Thirdly the whole thing is run by decrepit old over 60's who are doing this for pocket money, and young inexperienced F/O's neither who have flown an 800 before, horrific rumours of substandard training, the old boys signing themselves out with 30 min sim sessions etc, apparently the SAA training section is trying to distance themselves as far as possible from this set up for this reason, the 800 is not an old mans aircraft, how long do you think the old boys will be flying six legs a day in a SA summer before giving it up as a bad joke, these old boys last flew long range aircraft in which they slept half the time, these same old boys used to do 6 - 8 legs a month now you are asking them to do that in a day...............so when they do give up, who is going to replace them? Certainly not some of the F/O's they have employed, in fact none of the F/O's they have employed.
I may be wrong, it’s my opinion but I can’t see how it’s going to work
Yes they are putting 186 or so seats in the LCC aircraft, however they are getting rid of 30 something business class seats, I can’t see how they are going to make more money. Was chatting to a knowledgeable person the other day, the main cost to the LCC is the aircraft lease and apparently they need to reduce the cost per seat by R80 to be successful, the cost saving per seat from the lower paid crews is just R8 so there is no way in hell in my opinion they will succeed.
This whole LCC thing is built on a shaky foundation, firstly I don’t see how they are going compete with the competition using 800's I think a new hole will be torn into SAA from the competions board. Secondly apparently they require the crew to do six legs a day with 20 min turn arounds.......Impossible, it takes 15-20 min for 157 passengers just to get off an 800, I wonder if the genius’s have even thought of looking at the brake cooling charts. Thirdly the whole thing is run by decrepit old over 60's who are doing this for pocket money, and young inexperienced F/O's neither who have flown an 800 before, horrific rumours of substandard training, the old boys signing themselves out with 30 min sim sessions etc, apparently the SAA training section is trying to distance themselves as far as possible from this set up for this reason, the 800 is not an old mans aircraft, how long do you think the old boys will be flying six legs a day in a SA summer before giving it up as a bad joke, these old boys last flew long range aircraft in which they slept half the time, these same old boys used to do 6 - 8 legs a month now you are asking them to do that in a day...............so when they do give up, who is going to replace them? Certainly not some of the F/O's they have employed, in fact none of the F/O's they have employed.
I may be wrong, it’s my opinion but I can’t see how it’s going to work
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Ryanair does the low cost thing in 800''s! Why not in SA? It is all about getting the most out of the crew and aircraft. Those who can not stand the pace will fall behind.
I think it will work! My humble thoughts.
I think it will work! My humble thoughts.
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Ketek400 thats exactly the same thing I said to this "knowledgable person" and was given a good answer and if could remember half the explanation I would repeat it, but the basic reply to me was that Ryanair has far lower leasing costs due to a multitude of reasons.....something about international aircraft finance and leasing, blah blah that sort of thing
I would like to see the new LCC work, but as I said earlier its built on very shaky foundations and its the wrong aircraft, ask yourself why Kulula, and 1time are not flying around in $45 Million USD aircaft (per aircraft that is)
I would like to see the new LCC work, but as I said earlier its built on very shaky foundations and its the wrong aircraft, ask yourself why Kulula, and 1time are not flying around in $45 Million USD aircaft (per aircraft that is)
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Fluffy, the 800 is the right aircraft to use no question. Whoever says you cant make money out of new metal is seriously misinformed. Currently even SAA makes money on its current domestic route network despite the fact that yields are 30% lower than they were when the fleet was originally introduced into service. Imagine what the LCC can achieve.
The LCC costs are 40% lower than SAA's so not sure where you get 8 rand per seat- perhaps that just relates to the crew cost. Don’t fixate over this- there are savings all over the show when you get into it, just being a legacy carrier costs you money- distribution costs/ revenue accounting costs/ data management costs/licence fees etc etc the list is endless (Im not even talking HR costs!!!) If you want to be an international airline then these costs are a day to day reality. Fortunately a lot of them are variable and so if you can segment your customer base (the current strategy) then you can side step a lot of them thereby being able to offer lower fares. That’s why Kulula is not a pure LCC- they are selling a lot of their inventory via travel agents and their GDS’s – the most expensive channel you can use (even if you don’t offer commission- which by the way Kulula do)
Why aren’t 1Time and Comair and Nationwide buying 800’s?- they cant afford it- its cheaper to buy clapped out MD’s and 737/2/3/4/5’s or what ever is sitting in the desert or what ever Qantas/BA doesn’t want anymore than it is to buy new metal. Goodness CE still operates 4 727-200’s!! Crikey!!! I’ve said this before- herein lies the making of their own downfall- particularly CE and 1T , perhaps Comair to a limited extent, these guys specialize in being the last operator of an aircraft before it gets scrapped- Comair has already seen the writing on the wall and are looking for newer metal.
Am I in favour of the lCC getting the whole fleet- hell no, there is a good balance in terms of market segmentation and I feel that sits at between 7 and 8 aircraft. Do they need more than this? Definitely, when? Who knows- but I can tell you that every aircraft that moves off SAA’s books for no decline in revenue is doing mainline a favour- and if that aircraft is then profitably engaged then the benefit is amplified even further. The LCC will grow, but this will not be allowed to happen at the expense of mainline- they know this already and have factored it into their plans.
The LCC costs are 40% lower than SAA's so not sure where you get 8 rand per seat- perhaps that just relates to the crew cost. Don’t fixate over this- there are savings all over the show when you get into it, just being a legacy carrier costs you money- distribution costs/ revenue accounting costs/ data management costs/licence fees etc etc the list is endless (Im not even talking HR costs!!!) If you want to be an international airline then these costs are a day to day reality. Fortunately a lot of them are variable and so if you can segment your customer base (the current strategy) then you can side step a lot of them thereby being able to offer lower fares. That’s why Kulula is not a pure LCC- they are selling a lot of their inventory via travel agents and their GDS’s – the most expensive channel you can use (even if you don’t offer commission- which by the way Kulula do)
Why aren’t 1Time and Comair and Nationwide buying 800’s?- they cant afford it- its cheaper to buy clapped out MD’s and 737/2/3/4/5’s or what ever is sitting in the desert or what ever Qantas/BA doesn’t want anymore than it is to buy new metal. Goodness CE still operates 4 727-200’s!! Crikey!!! I’ve said this before- herein lies the making of their own downfall- particularly CE and 1T , perhaps Comair to a limited extent, these guys specialize in being the last operator of an aircraft before it gets scrapped- Comair has already seen the writing on the wall and are looking for newer metal.
Am I in favour of the lCC getting the whole fleet- hell no, there is a good balance in terms of market segmentation and I feel that sits at between 7 and 8 aircraft. Do they need more than this? Definitely, when? Who knows- but I can tell you that every aircraft that moves off SAA’s books for no decline in revenue is doing mainline a favour- and if that aircraft is then profitably engaged then the benefit is amplified even further. The LCC will grow, but this will not be allowed to happen at the expense of mainline- they know this already and have factored it into their plans.
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Ryanair average 160 pax on their 189 seat 800's. Where airport infrastructure allows, they average 20 minutes per turn. If its takes you 15-20 min just to disembark 157 passengers off your 800's, maybe you should consider opening the back door!! There have also been several occasions, at the more efficient airports, where we have turned 156 seats A319's in 15 minutes.
It's all about training and infrastructure. And when I say training I’m not just talking about crew. You need to work with the ground handlers too to make sure they are being trained to do these types of aircraft turn.
Airport infrastructure is also an important part of this. Ditch the jet bridges and coaches; create pre board zones areas, etc etc etc.
And finally; ditch allocated seating!!
It's all about training and infrastructure. And when I say training I’m not just talking about crew. You need to work with the ground handlers too to make sure they are being trained to do these types of aircraft turn.
Airport infrastructure is also an important part of this. Ditch the jet bridges and coaches; create pre board zones areas, etc etc etc.
And finally; ditch allocated seating!!
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DJ you undoubtedly know more than me on this subject, a lot of what I say comes from rumour and, so I don’t know what is right and what is not when it comes to the financial stuff for the LCC, I have always said the others LCC operators need a wake up call they are forever suing SAA and wining about unfair practices while all the while continuing with there own shady practices.
I just cant shake the feeling that something is not right, the crew problems i.e. there training, the old captains, the 20 min turn-arounds (JHB International is so congested at the moment if a pidgon farts on the apron there is a 10 - 20 delay so good luck to the new LCC), I cant argue with you on the profit or loss that its going to make but some well informed people in the union don’t seem to think its going to work so well, maybe they are wrong, I think the marketing value of a new LCC and bright orange aircraft will have a very positive effect on the public and I am sure every aircraft will fly 100% full like almost every airline is flying now on the CT, DUR routes.
Too many questions, too much secrecy, its all a big unknown
T Hairy Henry I agree 20 min turn arounds can be done, at certain airports here the back door is used and it does take a lot less time to disembark, but you are talking Europe, and I am talking Africa, things here dont tend to run as smooth here as they do there, and 20 min turn arounds are probably fine for most airfields in europe with there low density altitude its a different story in terms of brake cooling when you consider JHB 5550ft and 30+ deg C
I just cant shake the feeling that something is not right, the crew problems i.e. there training, the old captains, the 20 min turn-arounds (JHB International is so congested at the moment if a pidgon farts on the apron there is a 10 - 20 delay so good luck to the new LCC), I cant argue with you on the profit or loss that its going to make but some well informed people in the union don’t seem to think its going to work so well, maybe they are wrong, I think the marketing value of a new LCC and bright orange aircraft will have a very positive effect on the public and I am sure every aircraft will fly 100% full like almost every airline is flying now on the CT, DUR routes.
Too many questions, too much secrecy, its all a big unknown
T Hairy Henry I agree 20 min turn arounds can be done, at certain airports here the back door is used and it does take a lot less time to disembark, but you are talking Europe, and I am talking Africa, things here dont tend to run as smooth here as they do there, and 20 min turn arounds are probably fine for most airfields in europe with there low density altitude its a different story in terms of brake cooling when you consider JHB 5550ft and 30+ deg C
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The only thing creating a mess in my opinion is the over 60's group of pilots who happily occupy command seats in the other airlines after they have retired from SAA, they are flying for pocket money to subsidize there pensions, they have no interest in the welfare of the likes of Nationwide, Mango....whoever, they are a greedy bunch of indifiduals who move into and airline, change the rules hire there buddies and block the route to promotion, they care nothing for the likes of you and me and they give nothing back, they have created more problems than any BEE programme has so far done.
This may seem a bit harsh but I hear it time and time again from my buddies in these airlines, how much do these people wish to take? when will they ever have enough? are they ever going to give something back, do you think a FO in Mango will ever get command? I seriously doubt it, those jobs are reserved for ex SAA over 60's, now to me that is stuffing up the job market.
This may seem a bit harsh but I hear it time and time again from my buddies in these airlines, how much do these people wish to take? when will they ever have enough? are they ever going to give something back, do you think a FO in Mango will ever get command? I seriously doubt it, those jobs are reserved for ex SAA over 60's, now to me that is stuffing up the job market.
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....whoever, they are a greedy bunch of indifiduals who move into and airline, change the rules hire there buddies and block the route to promotion, they care nothing for the likes of you and me and they give nothing back, they have created more problems than any BEE programme has so far done.
And just to be clear - I am one of those directly affected by these people right now. I'm just trying to be objective.
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Turn Arounds
T Hairy Henry I agree 20 min turn arounds can be done, at certain airports here the back door is used and it does take a lot less time to disembark, but you are talking Europe, and I am talking Africa, things here dont tend to run as smooth here as they do there, and 20 min turn arounds are probably fine for most airfields in europe with there low density altitude its a different story in terms of brake cooling when you consider JHB 5550ft and 30+ deg C
you have to deal with - ATC delays and hold, waiting for parking bays, getting busses across the taxi way etc etc. All of these aspects together make 20 or 30 minute turn arounds very difficult.
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You are dealing with Africa here. If the infrastructure can be changed and trained to achieve these quick turnarounds, then kudos! Old boys network is good for bringing the experience level up at an operation where levels may be lacking but not if these old guys are going to be replaced directly by their senior mates, thus blocking the progression of the FOs through the ranks.
Also, if rumour is true, and these ac are leased at such exorbitant rates then where is the win. Money can be made with new ac when all the factors are lined up; min cost ac, max hour pilots, quick turns thus max utilization, low overheads etc. Are all these factors being met. If the ac you are using costs a fortune, does scrimping on the salary even begin to cover this. Witness Southwest.
Also, if rumour is true, and these ac are leased at such exorbitant rates then where is the win. Money can be made with new ac when all the factors are lined up; min cost ac, max hour pilots, quick turns thus max utilization, low overheads etc. Are all these factors being met. If the ac you are using costs a fortune, does scrimping on the salary even begin to cover this. Witness Southwest.
