Timmy Tomkins

Where did you get that from ? Private is definitively ok, ( I have the French qualification and do it all the time ) commercial I would say also as the Finist'air Caravan does that since years to Ouessan ,and quite a few TBMs out of LFPB !

I sent Tomnod a tweet but I doubt they are still going.

RAF Waddington have Reapers which are a bit excessive but highly useful; they are always quick to miss an opportunity for good PR. Surprising whilst they are currently spending a fortune on TV advertising

Sala was reportedly making a return/farewell visit to Nantes, having signed the transfer deal in Cardiff on Saturday 19th.

It may of course be coincidence, but Malibu N264DB was noted departing Rhoose on Saturday morning, flightplanned to Guernsey.

It's an entry-level, piston-powered Malibu 310P (Continental TSIO-520).

Rumors from Nantes says the aircraft was indeed N registered, one pilot only , not sure it was certified for public transport , so could be a pure private flight, It was on a standard IFR flight plan ,and according to some witnesses there could be 3 on board. Chances now to recover them if they ditched are very thin .

Southern Aircraft Consultancy acts as privacy trustee for many owners of US-registered aircraft in the UK.

But we don't know for sure yet if that's the aircraft involved.

I frequently fly across the Channel, at night, single engine - nothing inherently wrong about it (whilst we all prefer day VFR over land of course). Would usually want to be 5000-7000ft - but at this time of year, if IMC they may have been seeking warmer air lower down?

It's pretty cold at the moment, might have to be very low to find positive temps?

Pure speculation, to be ignored completely.

No, the flight was from Nantes to Cardiff, as widely reported by the BBC, Sky News, ITV, Metro and others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_P..._disappearance

I often flew overwater from the Bruce Peninsula to Manitoulin Island - at 9500'
​​​​​​

Super VC-10

Read my post again.

My point was that he apparently flew Cardiff-Nantes on the Saturday, and was returning to CWL yesterday on the ill-fated flight. :ugh:

I was P2 in a Turbo Arrow 3 many years ago injected at 10000 ft over the alps out the back of Cannes a 1000 ft above the hard stuff in icing cloud pre GPS with lightening which was not forecast by our dear EU friends and started to get a burning smell which we recon was the carpet glue melting somehow then a bit of a miss fire and P1 immeadiatly turned on the landing light as its a bit of heat before LED bulbs round the air intake and went to alternate air and it than ran fine again, 5 / 10 minutes later we broke out into glorious blue sky, he had worked out preflight where that should happen. We put it down to impact ice in the air filter but it all happened pretty quick and we had not completely even lost all the stall strips, P1 was cool and IR rated but I learnt a lot from that trip and that was too close for comfort for me as a PPL but he had the advantage he lived in Switzerland when he did his IR, was taught by an old boy who was highly experienced and it included regularly going into icing cloud to build up ice with safe warm air below and learn first hand what his Mooney at the time could cope with

Gurnard

Rumoured to be N264DB, recent visitor to Cardiff
Rumoured to be VFR
Coastguard description, white with blue stripe. hmmm
Coastguard saying "N246DB"

Saturday, January 19, 2019
Log Saturday 19/01/2019
Cardiff IAP Runway in use 12

Visitors
Landing at 11:44 is "N264DB" PA-46-310P Malibu N264DB ..parking on the GA apron ..departed at 12:15 to Guernsey

They seem to have this one as well delivered in 2013 and still active, REGISTRATION DETAILS FOR N866LP (SOUTHERN AIRCRAFT CONSULTANCY INC TRUSTEE) PIPER PA-46-350P MALIBU MIRAGE

Do N Reg aircraft not have ELT's built into the airframe that activate with contact on water or an impact ?

Actually there are a couple of dozen Malibus registered to SAC.

But I'm not sure what the relevance of those are, given that they all likely belong to different owners, and AFAIK none has been noted at Cardiff recently (apart from N264DB).

No ELT?
 

A few observations on this tragic accident.
I once did two days of UK air law to get a UK Validation for the Do328Tp at ScottAirways in 1999,and I recall that ELT was not required in the UK!
Is this a fact , and if so was this aircraft not equipped? ( Flying to France on a US reg??)
Having done a few football charters in my turboprop days and more importantly 100s of charters for Oil companys that did audit us for Safety, I find it shocking that any Club would let a valuable member use anything like this amateur arrangement.
I do not blame the poor footballer , he is of-course invincible, but someone needs to manage these men. Both form a economic and certainly human perspective!
I also find it strange that the search was called off in the early critical phase.
Anyway
I hope we can learn a thing or two from this tragic accident.
Nr 1 would be always carry an ELT!

I'd have thought ADS-B might have helped in this case.

Neither PF or FR24 tracked it. Strange, but that's what they say as high enough for MLAT.

We don't know that FR24 didn't track it.

It may well have a voluntary agreement, as it does with many corporate/private aircraft owners, not to publish flight details.

The weather was absolutely miserable at around 0200 local time. They were up early again this morning looking for them and were still looking for them at around 1430 LCT when we departed.
Weather is getting worse again, it's currently snowing in London and moving that way.

Impact only (in the case of ELT). They are not water acticated The transmisssions dont work to well if the aircraft then sinks :sad:

Some facts about N264DB:
- there is one photograph of it on Airliners from July 4, 2010. It shows it was equipped (in 2010) with de-ice boots and heating propeller pads.
Of course, this equipment might have been unserviceable on January 21th, 2019.
- the cruise ceiling of a PA-46-310P is 25,000 ft. At that altitude, it still has a ROC between 400 and 500 fpm but 25,000 ft is the limit dictated by the pressurisation system.

TAF and METAR for Cardiff and Jersey were:

EGFF 211644Z 2116/2212 22012KT 9999 SCT035 TEMPO 2116/2120 7000 -RA TEMPO
2120/2124 23016G26KT 6000 RA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 2120/2124 27020G30KT 4000 RA
BKN006 BECMG 2121/2124 28012KT TEMPO 2208/2212 6000 SHRA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO
2208/2210 3000 SHRA SHRASN BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 2210/2212 SHRA TSGS BKN008

EGFF 211820Z AUTO 22011KT 9999 -RA BKN021 OVC034 07/05 Q1014
EGFF 211850Z AUTO 23012KT 9999 -RA BKN020 BKN026 OVC045 07/05 Q1013
EGFF 211920Z AUTO 22011KT 9999 BKN033 BKN044 07/05 Q1013
EGFF 211950Z AUTO 22013KT 9999 BKN033 07/05 Q1012
EGFF 212020Z AUTO 22012KT 9999 SCT026 BKN034 07/05 Q1011
EGFF 212050Z AUTO 20012KT 9999 BKN023/// BKN039/// //////TCU 07/05 Q1010
EGFF 212120Z AUTO 20012KT 9999 -RA SCT024 BKN033 BKN040 07/05 Q1009
EGFF 212150Z AUTO 21012KT 6000 -RA BKN020/// OVC026/// //////TCU 07/06 Q1008

EGJJ 211707Z 2118/2203 20010KT 9999 FEW015 BKN030 TEMPO 2118/2124 -RA BKN015
PROB30 TEMPO 2118/2121 7000 SHRA BKN012 BECMG 2121/2123 22020KT BECMG 2202/2203
31017KT NSW SCT015

EGJJ 211820Z 22010KT 9999 SCT014 SCT025 BKN040 06/04 Q1019
EGJJ 211850Z 22011KT 9999 FEW018 SCT021 07/04 Q1018
EGJJ 211920Z 22011KT 9999 FEW016 SCT018 07/04 Q1018
EGJJ 211950Z 22012KT 9999 FEW018 SCT020 06/04 Q1017
EGJJ 212020Z 22013KT 9999 R26/1400 SCT014 07/04 Q1017
EGJJ 212050Z AUTO 22015KT 9999 1200 R26/1200 BR SCT014/// SCT018/// BKN033///
07/05 Q1016
EGJJ 212120Z AUTO 22015KT 9999 1400 FEW013/// OVC028/// 07/05 Q1016 RERA
EGJJ 212150Z AUTO 21015KT 9999 1400 FEW014/// SCT017/// BKN032/// 07/05 Q1015
RERA

A number of assets were utilised today, and they were stood down at approx 17:00 and the wind increased over the day. The earlier tasked assets involved in the search had been stood down in the early hours, as it would have been non-productive with the deteriorating conditions.

Unfortunately there was nothing found during today's search, and I'm not so sure the reports of red flares relate to the actual aircraft itself, and were more likely dropped by assets during the search.

FR24 didn't track it because, 'the transponder wasn't on or it was very old'.
Source: FR24

Seems the questions are getting answered..

Experienced pilot - named in some media.
PA46-310P from 1984 owned under the usual UK trustee system.
"old" transponder meaning Mode C?

God Damn Channel Islands - with it's own weather.
I've flown in there dozens of times and one minute you can count every star in the sky and the next - you can't see the end of the temp probe out the front of the windscreen.

The question of whether it was equipped with Mode S ELS/EHS (25' altitude resolution) or simply Mode C (100') is largely immaterial. As a 35-year-old privately-owned aircraft it almost certainly didn't have ADS-B, which means that it would only have transmitted altitude when interrogated by ground radar.

Single engine, winter, snow forecast, night, possibly chartered from the low bidder. Prominent entertainer having the arrangements made for them.

Did we learn nothing from Buddy Holly ?

Departed to Guernsey?

If that is the case and they wanted to land there, this would explain the altitude.

That was the Saturday Cardiff to Nantes flight, via Guernsey.

It would only explain the low altitude on yesterday's flight if they had also planned to stop there on the return. We don't know that.

Chartered? On the N reg?

Wouldn't be the least but surprised if some shenanigan like this was involved - but if so the CAA need to come down on the perpetrators like a ton of hot bricks.
We hear far too much of this sort of chicanery.
Remember the Dettori near wipeout at Doncaster(?) racecourse last year? Yet another N reg being flown irresponsibly & dangerously in UK airspace with high value clients on board. "Lent" by friends was it? I'll bet.

The great grey-area, dry lease hire... to quote a website offering such a service.

"All hires are on a “dry” basis, leaving customers free to organise their own flights and supply their own pilots. This makes the service very cost effective and flexible as overheads are kept to a minimum."

It also nicely sidesteps the reason why AOCs were created, SAFETY!