Not a big jet pilot so don't know the answer but if there was so much weight shift as to cause a major nose up and stall, then how; with barely minimum flying speed, did they get the nose back down below the horizontal ?

Just asking; but if the weight of those vehicles had moved very far back, wouldn't the crash have looked more like an SU-27 doing a tail slide ?

It looks like if they had another 1000 feet the outcome may have been different - that doesn't strike me as an unrecoverable "out of CG" problem.

The video is an omni-directional mic quite sensitive, its weird no impact sound was captured.

Just shockwave would have moved the diaphram

Dog
 

For those that are listening to the Video, at 1.35 you hear a dog whine in the car and he settles it down, guess he's some form of security on the base, don’t imagine to many dogs around there, Muslim country, they dont like dogs!

Accent
 

And its a British Accent!

The television report said it was an American crew.

Oval3Holer:
While I agree with most of your post regarding their efforts, I believe at some point desperation might have set in as nothing they were doing was apparently working and that lowering the gear might have been a last-ditch effort to somehow regain control. There are aircraft that have that as a procedure when you are in an extreme/unknown attitude (extreme being the case here..). As was pointed out- the gear looked like it was partially extended-giving credence to the idea that it was last-second, so its not an unheard-of thing to do-just my 2 cents worth, hopefully the cause will be found. My condolences to the families...

Either that or the gear was never raised in the first place

I dont know why, I have the feeling that despite that the situation was not correctable, they may have reduced the power setting to help them recover the nose.

I dont know how or why, but everytime I see the video I have this feeling.

I am not blaming anyone of course, but I thing that they may tried this to save the plane.

Cargo Crash at Bagram
 

Is it possible for a 747 freighter to land with the stab just inside the nose up greenband, and the Pilots forget to set his new stab trim for takeoff. As he rolls down the runway the nose gear prematurely lifts off and when he does pull back on the column the aircraft over rotates, stalls and crashes?

Dave, most aircraft will pitch forward in a stall. Not all, mind you, but most. This does not imply that the aircraft has recovered from the stall as such. In the case of an aft CofG problem once the aircraft recovers flying speed the problem will occur again leading to another stall. Whilst the aircraft impacts in a fairly level attitude this does not mean that it would have been recoverable if they had a few more thousand feet.

Barking:

quote:
It is as clear as day.
Extreme angle of climb causes cargo to shift that can clearly be seen as the
a/c passes the antenna, watch the tail, change of attitude, then stall, game
over.
Now the focus will be on the radical departure. Pilot or Company? Dead men cant tell tales.

Look I can tell you...has been sad before....There is no radical departure in OAIX for a B744. Just a standard NADP 1. So the extreme angle was not caused on purpose. It seems to me that the problem occured before or at rotation whether it was a cargo shift, runaway trim, or other control problems. The B744 will give a TO config warning if the stab trim is set wrongly once setting TO pwr fyi.

V2+10( to +20)
 

There seems to be a few posters here who have an issue with the "radical" departure.....which is far from the case. Those who [actually] fly here, please forgive me...
The recommended departure to fly out of Bagram is a STANDARD NADP 1 departure. You fly a pitch that will hold the speed within V2+10 up to v2+20 until 3000' AGL. This profile is flown every day, by thousands of airlines, out of thousands of airports. Nothing radical by the crew. Now, the pitch required to hold the airspeed within those parameters is dependent on available thrust versus the aircraft weight. If the plane is very light, and thrust is high, the pitch will be high, around 16-19 degrees. So, nothing radical, just standard procedures. That said, Bagram is at 4895' field elevation, so performance is slightly reduced, so pitch would be less. Also, if the plane is on the heavier side, like I surmise it is ( hearing that they are REMOVING MRAP's instead of flying them in ), and flight time about 7 hours, I would say the plane isn't exactly light. I would guess the initial pitch to stabilize the speed to be about 16-17 degrees.
So, even though this may be a " zone of conflict ", I don't SEE any way that the flight crew's flying this departure could be seen as radical, or any way out of the norm, or be so excessive as to contribute, or cause a load-shift.
Of course I am speaking to those pundits out there who have very little to no actual flying experience. To all others, forgive my dissertation.

*I didn't hear or see any evidence of the engines surging. Since one could hear the noise of the engines and see the tailpipes in the video.

I did hear the pressure change in the microphone when the plane hit and it sounded immediately clipped to me.

CVRs in cockpit do pickup 'evidence" of explosions both as clipped pressure changes and ringing of the plane structure. In fact the differences in timing between the two can be used to extropolate the location of the explosion, providing the CVR power remains. (I don't see this as germain in this event ?)

Im interested in resolving any possibilities of a cargo shift at VR since this might result in enough time for a crew radio call before a loss of control.

I believe that the CVR info will not be released without significant editing, since cargo flights tend to have extra people in the cockpit. Extras who have no flight control functions tend to verbalize excitedly in cases like this

Cargo shifted? Most probably, but until the work is done, we just don't know. Why is this being discussed as fact?
Someone asked earlier if there were any genuine aircrew left on this forum....an outsider looking in at this juncture would think not.

And what's with the "radical departure" nonsense? Just because you've seen a few C-117 photos in the publicity shots from the military that you think 747s with half a motorcade inside do this on the weekly run out of Bagram?

It's ridiculous....and more than that, to the crew involved.....it's downright disrespectful.

Get a life!

I dont know if this has been mentioned before. However on impact the landing gear appears to be down and locked.

Reading between the lines.
It looks to me like they where having major flight control anomalies at the point at witch you would normally retract the landing gear. ie More or less 50ft with a positive rate of climb.
I think that they where probably flighting to control the aircraft and where ether to busy or forgot to retract the gear. I dont think this was caused bye pilot error. If is more likely in my opinion that this was ether caused bye a loading or mechanical failure/error.

Children of a different Magenta Line
 

FirstStep: thank you for the detailed explanation. :ok:

Regardless of whether they were using NADP1 or NADP2, it appears from that brief video clip that things were going wrong before they had reached 800' ... caveat: since what is available on that video clip does not include the take off roll, rotation, etc, the observers in the tower may have seen something during rotation and takeoff that will change the course of this discussion were their observations available.

hectopascal:
Thank you, sir.

Thought: with reliance more and more on automation and software (my line of thinking at this point refers to the pre flight and mission planning phases) I'll guess that the NTSB team will look into possible GIGO issues before it ever got rolling.

You could expect that if you have no idea about aerodynamic design but No, all swept wings have some sort of washout. Wiki explains it. It'd be pretty dumb to design a wing that would stall tips-first, don't you think?? :cool:

Post removed thanks to a "polite" suggestion that it was rude to stacee.

Correct: The only life-saving technique in a significant cargo shift as such would be to roll into an IMMEDIATE bank, 30 to 40 degrees, whatever it takes to keep the nose from coming up beyond 18 degrees; maintaining configuration & power and accelerating in a continuous climbing turn with full forward stab and elevator. 250-280kts ...whatever speed and bank it takes to keep from stalling and to keep the nose down. When the nose is lowered, extra crew can go downstairs and push one or two pallets forward, or in case of vehicles, drive them forward.

For landing, it would be high speed, zero flaps or minimal flaps. Once stopped on the pavement, the tail would squat.

This scenario can be trained in the sim with a programmed CG shift at rotation.

normal initial pitch attitude
 

1st step;

Flight time from Bagram to Al Makthoum is about 2,5 hrs iso 7, depending on the headwinds.

I'd guess 40 tons of blockfuel, 50 max. Even with a (partial-) load of say 80 tons, that would give a not at all heavy TOW of about 285 tons (max structural TOW = 396 tons). Does anyone know the load yet?

During rotation you normally aim for about 15 degr pitch attitude, and as soon as you get airborne follow the FD and shoot for V2 +10.
Initial pitch attitude out of a field elevation of ±5000' with this kind of weight (and derated) would be around 13 degr I would guess. With a full rated TO it would be higher, then the 16-17 degr you mention could be right.
Perhaps they don't use derated TO's for safety reasons there, I don't know. I've never been there and wouldn't mind if it stayed that way.

On the Classic we used to calculate the initial pitch attitude, but on the -400 you just go for 15 degr and then follow the FD. Couldn't find a table for it.
Perhaps someone here has the info, if it is relevant that is.

re my earlier post and pj2's where we mentioned the gear was down on impact so it seemed possible it never was retracted after lift off if the crew faced immediate problems

i have now watched the video on a very big TV and i think i can make out the nose wheel doors are open ? just before impact so maybe the gear was being lowered again as some pilots have mentioned on here as an attempt to use this during a stall recovery...although someone mentioned (hotdog?) you do not do this on this a/c type....

I'm not 100% sure though as video is fuzzy when increased...that's all....
perhaps someone else will see better than me.

Considering the governing factors, i don't think this flight qualified as state aircraft under Art. 3 Chicago Convention.
It was a civil registered aircraft, operating under contract of carriage and there was no military personal aboard.

The accident investigation is thus governed by the Chicago Convention. Which means that the afghans have authority with the NTSB being merely observer.

This being Afghanistan of course, applying rule of (international) law is purely academic speaking.

Anyone who thinks that it would have made any difference whatsoever to the outcome of this catastrophe as to whether the gear was up or down is living in cloud cuckoo land.

The crew were confronted suddenly with an unflyable aeroplane.

In any event, all you MS experts out there should know by now that if hitting the ground becomes inevitable, it is always better to have the gear down than up. At least it will absorb some of the impact.

In this case, it was irrelevant.

The aircraft was en-route to DXB but does anyone know where it had arrived from. The crew compliment suggests a heavy crew.

Absolute ignorant here of all things military transport but assuming they were indeed moving those MRAPs how much actual space is there in the cargo hold for them to shift assuming a fully loaded aircraft ?

atakacs, go back a few pages in this very thread. There are some explanations of how to load an MRAP on a cargo plane, a picture of one strapped down in an aircraft, how many one can fit into a 744, and some of the other issues involved. :ok:


strapped in

someone who shipped MRAPS in

Things that go wrong when loads shift

possible reactions to a cargo shift

When I take off out of Bagram (in my B738):
On a relatively short flight (either back to Dubai or down to Kandahar).
With, say, 100 pax, and fuel being tankered (fuel in Bagram is cheaper than in Dubai... go figure?!).
Using full rated thrust (in order to, as fast as possible, put as much distance between me and any Taliban, i.e. a 'tactical' departure, as some might call it?!).

The acceleration down the runway can be breathtaking and the subsequent pitch angle required (i.e. to control the air speed within V2 to V2+15kts) is typically up to 25º nose up.

Just sayin'...

Stand corrected
 

Mariner,

Your numbers right on. Flt time is little over 2 hours ( not the 7 hours I posted ) the fuel and payload guestimate seems nuts on. Thanks.

This may be a factor, from flightradar 24 the aircraft left CHR/LFLX at 15:50Z on Sunday 28th, I understand from other sites that it routed to an airbase in Afgan before flying to Bagram. The crash occurred at 11:00Z on Monday 29th. assuming there was no slip crew available in either of the Afgan locations and the crew joined in CHR/LFLX then at the time of the crash they had been on duty for some 19+ hours. I might be wrong on my assumptions and maybe a fresh crew did join in Bagram.

WhyBy:

1. From that brief video clip, I don't see a spin in evidence. My own experience with spins is from smaller aircraft, which tend to go through stall, post stall gyration, and incipient spin stages (however brief) before entering a spin.

I freely admit to not being familiar with the characteristics of stall, post stall behavior, nor incipient spins in 747s. Some of the folks who did test flying back in the 60's or 70's may be able to explain that.

After reading GlueBall's post a page back, a possible explanation for what we see in that clip is that the second wing drop was an attempt by the flight crew to get the nose to drop (see below) and restore controlled flight ... we do see the wings returning to level before impact .. but they ran out of altitude for recovery.

I am sure there are other explanations.

From GlueBall:
FWIW

The Vehicle driver
 

So, the driver, presumably military and on duty in a military vehicle, probably on patrol in or near a secure and no doubt very sensitive area, sees this and downloads his vehicles dashcam onto the internet within 48 hours of a major incident/accident. All from a combat area.

Where do the authorities sit with that?

I wouldnt like to be that man right now.

UV:

Why assume the driver of the military vehicle is the one who downloaded the footage? After he returned to base I'm sure the contents of that camera were confiscated by persons higher up the pecking order than he. Anyone of whom could have done the same with the contents.

Perhaps the driver was not the person who uploaded the video? Just a thought... (sorry, just refreshed the page and saw someone already suggested same)

The flight did come indeed from CHR, and it landed somewhere else in Afghanistan before landing in OAIX. In regards to National they fly heavy crew most of the time I believe. (even if it is a relative short day)
As far as flight time goes...I believe it is more in the 3.5 hr range (depending of wind), since a lot of airlines (especially one being US) can not fly through Iranian airspace. Just my 2 cents.

Whilst I am fairly convinced by the load-shift explanation, I have in the back of my mind a DC8F crash caused by a rock/stone (?) jammed between the elevator/Stab during taxy-out control checks due "FOD" by the engines. On departure they could pull back, but not push forward. Judicious application of fwd trim might have saved the day, but time/altitude were in short supply.

Many possibilities here, even if I think it WILL be load-shift.


Edited to say, or was it a pax DC8 on a trooping contract ?

If it was a case of load shifting how were the crew ever able to get the aircraft back on a level attitude, which it was at the time of impact?

Was a there a report ever published on the loss of 747 N527MC ? Cargo shift there, the drivers fought 30 mns airborne and were lucky. Not found on NTSB.

http://www.pprune.org/freight-dogs/3...maged-lfw.html
ASN Aircraft accident Boeing 747-2D7B N527MC Lome Airport (LFW)

John Hill:

In a slip most of the drag comes from the vertical stabilizer. Hence the nose will drop.

Thanks, that makes sense..:ok:

John Hill: Not withstanding any possible effects of control and / or thrust inputs buy the pilots... when the aircraft rolled (to the right) and then slid sideways out of the sky, it's possible (probable?) that the sweep of the downward going wing would most likely cause that wing to generate lift (remembering that it's a very big wing, with a lot of sweep) and which... referencing my copy of D.P.Davies 'Handling The Big Jets' (3rd edition)... is a phenomenon that's more properly known as 'an increase in the projected span'.
Conversely, the wing on the other side would generate no lift and therein the asymmetric lift between the two wings would cause the aircraft to roll (in this case to what just happened to be an almost level attitude prior to it impacting the ground).