Ukraine War Thread Part 2
Not good news
https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...skiy-bodyguard
Ukraine sends reinforcements to Kharkiv region to repel Russian advances
More reports are coming to us on the situation in the Kharkiv region.
Ukraine defence ministry said on Friday that it has sent military reinforcements to help repel Russian attacks in border areas of the Kharkiv region in the northeast.
More reports are coming to us on the situation in the Kharkiv region.
Ukraine defence ministry said on Friday that it has sent military reinforcements to help repel Russian attacks in border areas of the Kharkiv region in the northeast.
Tabs please !
Design clearly based on the Skyranger.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30642
Ideal for evading ground based detection - too small too slow and little mass...
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/30642
Ideal for evading ground based detection - too small too slow and little mass...
Russia’s killer Lancet drone runs on American AI
https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/russia...n-american-ai/
This whole globalization thing went too far. The West is defeating itself. What ever happened to COCOM?
https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/russia...n-american-ai/
This whole globalization thing went too far. The West is defeating itself. What ever happened to COCOM?
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Russian forces have crossed the border and advanced one kilometer into the Kharkiv region according to NHK news.
I don't think that aircraft is actually a Skyranger (of French origin). These tube-and-canvas ultralights are pretty derivative, the Ukrainians could easily design/modify one to their requirements & build domestically.
(If you didn't notice the sarcasm dripping from your screen ... for about a year and a half the "send me Vipers" noise went on and on. What problem are you trying to solve? The Vipers will in due course have a role to play, but it isn't magic).
They could also save pretty heavily on construction/materials, given that each airframe only has to be used once!
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You could use bamboo for some parts..
Indeed!
We saw these Aussie mini-drones made of waxed cardboard, which is somewhat analogous.
This is a very curious war... positional trench warfare a la WWI, with an array of high- and low-tech innovations, many of which neve seen before on the battlefield. It will be written about and analysed for decades to come. We might be witnessing a secular change in the nature of warfare itself.
Or not. Time - and the identity of the victor, and nature of victory - will tell
We saw these Aussie mini-drones made of waxed cardboard, which is somewhat analogous.
This is a very curious war... positional trench warfare a la WWI, with an array of high- and low-tech innovations, many of which neve seen before on the battlefield. It will be written about and analysed for decades to come. We might be witnessing a secular change in the nature of warfare itself.
Or not. Time - and the identity of the victor, and nature of victory - will tell
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Major new Russian offensive across the border underway near Kharkiv, towns in between being evacuated, Ukrainian reinforcements being rushed to the area.
US supplying additional emergency HIMSRS from US army stocks.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...on-2024-05-10/
US supplying additional emergency HIMSRS from US army stocks.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...on-2024-05-10/
According to Ukrainian sources quoted on the BBC the incursion has been stopped.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pyv8q94g1o
Hopefully the West doesn't conflate current Ukrainian weakness due to the reduced supply of weapons with Russian superiority in strategy and tactics. All the recent Russian advances have done is elevate Pukin's domestic political capital. Give the Ukrainians the ammo, weapons and supplies to GTBJD.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pyv8q94g1o
Hopefully the West doesn't conflate current Ukrainian weakness due to the reduced supply of weapons with Russian superiority in strategy and tactics. All the recent Russian advances have done is elevate Pukin's domestic political capital. Give the Ukrainians the ammo, weapons and supplies to GTBJD.
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Sacrificial probing attacks to find out where and how the Ukrainian defences are located...
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Group N, or Group North, is starting to form on the northern border area of Ukraine...
it will be in 3 groups, from reports probably with the following force:
Bryansk force - 8500 troops, probably 2 brigades or regiments.
Group Kursk - 10,800 troops, 3 brigades or 3 regiments.
Group Belogorod - 31,200, probably..
A combined arms army with a division and a brigade of infantry,
another infantry brigade,
SF brigade or airborne brigade,
TD regiment,
artillery brigade,
rocket brigade,
service and support brigade.
Currently this unit HAS NOT FORMED!!!!
Recently Group North was assigned the new commander….
it will be in 3 groups, from reports probably with the following force:
Bryansk force - 8500 troops, probably 2 brigades or regiments.
Group Kursk - 10,800 troops, 3 brigades or 3 regiments.
Group Belogorod - 31,200, probably..
A combined arms army with a division and a brigade of infantry,
another infantry brigade,
SF brigade or airborne brigade,
TD regiment,
artillery brigade,
rocket brigade,
service and support brigade.
Currently this unit HAS NOT FORMED!!!!
Recently Group North was assigned the new commander….
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russian Duma wants to assign 2 hectares of land from each of the occupied territories to those taking part in the SMO.
Seems a bit excessive for a grave, but maybe they mean to grow a lot of sunflowers……
Seems a bit excessive for a grave, but maybe they mean to grow a lot of sunflowers……
I have noticed a lot on Twitter recently that Russian troops of all ranks are wearing UK pattern camo, as in the image above.
I do wonder if this is Chinese knock offs or if they have access to ex UK stock, or they are being supplied by the same companies.
If its the latter, then these companies need to loose their contracts.
I do wonder if this is Chinese knock offs or if they have access to ex UK stock, or they are being supplied by the same companies.
If its the latter, then these companies need to loose their contracts.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
ISW:
Russian forces have begun the first stage of an operation in Kharkiv Oblast that advances multiple Russian objectives. Russian forces likely will not seize Kharkiv City. 🧵(1/3)
Available evidence indicates that the initial Russian attacks are reconnaissance in force and not yet a major drive to seize Kharkiv City.
This operation seeks to advance the following Russian objectives:
1⃣ Fix Ukrainian forces across the theater to thin Ukrainian forces out along the 600-mile frontline and create opportunities, specifically in Donetsk Oblast.
2⃣ Draw Ukrainian forces towards Vovchansk to facilitate Russia’s ongoing efforts to seize Kupyansk, which has stalled in the past six months.
3⃣ Create a “demilitarized” or “sanitary” buffer zone in Ukraine as the Kremlin has explicitly sought since early 2024.
4⃣ Instill panic in Ukraine.
5⃣ The operation also can set conditions for a larger future offensive operation on Kharkiv City.
2/ Russian forces likely will not seize Kharkiv City.
Open-source information indicates that Russian forces likely have roughly 50,000 troops in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts – a force insufficient to seize Kharkiv City.
The current geographic extent of the reported attacks on the morning of 10 MAY from Vovchansk to Hoptivka is notably narrow and centered on the northeast of Kharkiv.
If the Russian command intended to seize Kharkiv City, then Russian forces would have likely also attacked to the west and northwest of Kharkiv City as well.
3/ Russia is leveraging Russian airspace as a sanctuary to strike Kharkiv Oblast.
Russia’s use of Russian airspace for these attacks highlights the urgent need for the US to provide more long-range air defense assets and to allow the Ukrainians to use them to intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace.
Ukraine would be better able to defend Kharkiv Oblast if Ukrainian air defenders could intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace before they drop their glide bombs.
Russian forces have begun the first stage of an operation in Kharkiv Oblast that advances multiple Russian objectives. Russian forces likely will not seize Kharkiv City. 🧵(1/3)
Available evidence indicates that the initial Russian attacks are reconnaissance in force and not yet a major drive to seize Kharkiv City.
This operation seeks to advance the following Russian objectives:
1⃣ Fix Ukrainian forces across the theater to thin Ukrainian forces out along the 600-mile frontline and create opportunities, specifically in Donetsk Oblast.
2⃣ Draw Ukrainian forces towards Vovchansk to facilitate Russia’s ongoing efforts to seize Kupyansk, which has stalled in the past six months.
3⃣ Create a “demilitarized” or “sanitary” buffer zone in Ukraine as the Kremlin has explicitly sought since early 2024.
4⃣ Instill panic in Ukraine.
5⃣ The operation also can set conditions for a larger future offensive operation on Kharkiv City.
2/ Russian forces likely will not seize Kharkiv City.
Open-source information indicates that Russian forces likely have roughly 50,000 troops in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts – a force insufficient to seize Kharkiv City.
The current geographic extent of the reported attacks on the morning of 10 MAY from Vovchansk to Hoptivka is notably narrow and centered on the northeast of Kharkiv.
If the Russian command intended to seize Kharkiv City, then Russian forces would have likely also attacked to the west and northwest of Kharkiv City as well.
3/ Russia is leveraging Russian airspace as a sanctuary to strike Kharkiv Oblast.
Russia’s use of Russian airspace for these attacks highlights the urgent need for the US to provide more long-range air defense assets and to allow the Ukrainians to use them to intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace.
Ukraine would be better able to defend Kharkiv Oblast if Ukrainian air defenders could intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace before they drop their glide bombs.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukrai...oil-refineries
Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries
Tendar:
Just like I predicted and assessed the Ukrainian air campaign against Russia's oil refining industry as being extremely effective, the magazine "Foreign Affairs" confirms my assessment.
Hitting Russian refining infrastructure only brings benefits with little or even no risks. Russia's loss of refining products even pushes the Russian regime to extend crude oil exports and by doing so rather even pushing down crude oil prices, because it cannot store oil in large quantities.
Shutting down oil wells is even more expensive. Repairs are costly, sometimes not feasible as well as time-consuming. Spare parts are in most cases on sanction lists.
While oil prices worldwide are unaffected by the Ukrainian campaign, prices for refined oil products in Russia are rising. Aside from a higher strain for the war industry as well as for the army (logistics chains are getting even longer), it will actually cause much higher inflation as Russia has already.
Due to the re-import of refined oil products, Russia will be exposed to normal market prices, which for the average Russian, who never had to experience anything like this in the past - neither in the Soviet Union nor even in the 1990s - will come as a shock.
What the news magazine forgot to mention is the political strain.
Russian oligarchs are increasingly losing money on an epic scale. The Putin system, however, is based on two pillars: favors and force. It was quite common that Putin compensated oligarchs for loyalty when those got hit by foreign sanctions, but those means are not infinite, especially during war. The less favors can be used, the more the regime has to use force, which in return will have a backlash.
In the end, more and more people in the systems will silently question the soundness of Russia suicidal path and might feel increasingly inclined to ditch the dictator in the Kremlin. The fragile scale is getting out of balance.
Either way, it only proves that Ukraine's air campaign against Russia's refining industry is an excellent strategy to exert massive pain against the the Russian regime and population.
It is not a fast weapon, though we can already see the first side effects, but it is merciless one, which will yield tremendous results over a foreseeable period of time.
In the end, Ukraine's air campaign has evolved into the most effective sanction against Russia. It is unlikely and would be unwise to give up on this.
Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries
Tendar:
Just like I predicted and assessed the Ukrainian air campaign against Russia's oil refining industry as being extremely effective, the magazine "Foreign Affairs" confirms my assessment.
Hitting Russian refining infrastructure only brings benefits with little or even no risks. Russia's loss of refining products even pushes the Russian regime to extend crude oil exports and by doing so rather even pushing down crude oil prices, because it cannot store oil in large quantities.
Shutting down oil wells is even more expensive. Repairs are costly, sometimes not feasible as well as time-consuming. Spare parts are in most cases on sanction lists.
While oil prices worldwide are unaffected by the Ukrainian campaign, prices for refined oil products in Russia are rising. Aside from a higher strain for the war industry as well as for the army (logistics chains are getting even longer), it will actually cause much higher inflation as Russia has already.
Due to the re-import of refined oil products, Russia will be exposed to normal market prices, which for the average Russian, who never had to experience anything like this in the past - neither in the Soviet Union nor even in the 1990s - will come as a shock.
What the news magazine forgot to mention is the political strain.
Russian oligarchs are increasingly losing money on an epic scale. The Putin system, however, is based on two pillars: favors and force. It was quite common that Putin compensated oligarchs for loyalty when those got hit by foreign sanctions, but those means are not infinite, especially during war. The less favors can be used, the more the regime has to use force, which in return will have a backlash.
In the end, more and more people in the systems will silently question the soundness of Russia suicidal path and might feel increasingly inclined to ditch the dictator in the Kremlin. The fragile scale is getting out of balance.
Either way, it only proves that Ukraine's air campaign against Russia's refining industry is an excellent strategy to exert massive pain against the the Russian regime and population.
It is not a fast weapon, though we can already see the first side effects, but it is merciless one, which will yield tremendous results over a foreseeable period of time.
In the end, Ukraine's air campaign has evolved into the most effective sanction against Russia. It is unlikely and would be unwise to give up on this.
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ORAC, many thanks for keeping up your invaluable commentary. I trust that your other current activities will not inhibit this.
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