MH17 down near Donetsk [Archive] - Page 3

Passenger 389

20th Jul 2014, 05:15

@SLFplatine said:

Multiple reports indicate that it was known several days prior that the undisciplined irregular separatist/rebel army had acquired control of a SAM system capable of bringing down large aircraft at altitude. Now, if so, and if Kiev was aware (and there are multiple reports indicating they were) why they did not immediately close the airspace over the area within which said undisciplined irregular armed units were operating is a question they need to answer.

One possible answer (according to the Wall Street Journal):

[The counterintelligence chief at Ukraine's national security service, Vitaly Nayda,] said that his agency became aware that the rebels possessed three Buk-M1 antiaircraft systems, as of July 14. On that day, a Ukrainian military Antonov An-26 transport plane was shot by a surface-to-air missile, killing two crew members.

* * * *
Another Ukrainian official with oversight over civil aviation matters said that the government never considered closing off the entire airspace of the eastern region because they never dreamed that the Russians or separatists would target civilian air traffic.

U.S. Points to Russian Missile Connection in Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Crash - WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-intel-points-to-russian-rebel-missile-connection-in-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-crash-1405816389)

Translation - inertia, perhaps busy with other matters, coupled with absence of imagination, no sense of urgency, and neither contemplating nor understanding how a Buk-M1 system potentially might be used by "undisciplined irregular armed units" (as opposed to how the system was designed to be used by a well trained, disciplined team.) Maybe some compartmentalization of information as well.

We are talking about government work, after all.

guestofguest

20th Jul 2014, 05:46

Russia radar must be monitoring that area closely at the time the plane was down.

So Russia would have evidence if it was NOT shot down by pro Russia folks.

Now Russia said nothing about the radar records.

They must have known who shot the plane down.

Capvermell

20th Jul 2014, 05:49

Possibly the only evidential proof of a missile strike will be shrapnel recovered from the victims at autopsy.

Isn't there any chance that ATC Radar will have captured the missile's path from launch to impact with its target. Of course as the Ukrainians have not so far come up with anything then perhaps not. No doubt ATC monitoring facilities in that region are still primitive in the extreme.

However this is unlikely to be tried in any court of law for a long time but the unofficial trial of the rebel separatists will come in terms of the sanctions and other pressure imposed on Russia by the West. Since the separatists and the Russians (who quite unbelievably gave them these weapons without providing the supervisory personnel to ensure that a mistake like this dd not take place) are blatantly guilty unless they can prove otherwise the same rules of evidence as a court needs to send someone to prison are not going to be required to impose sanctions on Russia or cancel the 2018 World Cup in order to punish Putin personally.

Green Guard

20th Jul 2014, 06:04

Ukraine responsible for airspace safety: IATA (http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/ukraine-responsible-for-airspace-safety-iata-20140720-zuzmp.html)

rottenray

20th Jul 2014, 06:05

Over at the airliners.... post 51 in part 3 MH17 crashes in Ukraine has an unauthenticated TV screen shoot of the remains of the SAM.

If you view the full-size image, it's obviously a photoshop job.

The base picture is a photo of a CNN screen, with heavy edits:

1 The perspective of the screen and the top
"bug" vary greatly - "sneider" panel vs. bottom graphics.

2 Is there really an anti-aircraft missile out there that has exposed bolts in the slipstream? Looks more like a buoy.

3 The shadow from the fin does not match any other shadow angle in the rest of the image.

(view full at http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsxabpVIAAALK9c.jpg:large)

Lone_Ranger

20th Jul 2014, 06:34

Once again, as a NTSB trained aircraft accident investigator I am appalled by the treatment of this crash site.

This was not an accident, it was murder

As this is not an accident, but a deliberate shoot down of a civil airliner

Oh righto, as an NTSB trained accident investigator, (if that's actually true) tell me, do you conclude all your cases from stuff you've seen/heard on the TV/Internet and without being anywhere near the accident?

Propoaganda feeds off the weak minded and their ill informed reinforcement

mickjoebill

20th Jul 2014, 06:40

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/07/20/article-2698689-1FCC7A1600000578-149_634x396.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/07/20/article-2698689-1FCC7A1600000578-149_634x396.jpg
For what its worth….
If you look closely at the trail near the ground it does a dog leg, is it consistent with a post launch correction?

Quantum of Solace

20th Jul 2014, 07:00

Probably more consistent with the normal effect of air currents on the smoke otherwise known as wind movements from the surface to higher altitude.
It seems that the conspiracy theorists are running amuck on this site.
That doesn't apply to your post Mickjoebill.
Given a choice of a conspiracy or a stuff-up the stuff-up is more likely.

currawong

20th Jul 2014, 07:39

Why this aircraft?

Why not the one before, the one after, or all after a particular time?

OleOle

20th Jul 2014, 07:40

The weather on the daily mail image is quite different to the weather in the videos of the impact you can watch on youtube e.g:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdmM6pWoHso

In all the videos there are flat extending cu, reports of cb further south also indicate convective activity that day. The daily mail image shows a sky without any convective clouds.

The vegetation doesn't seem to match either.

Above The Clouds

20th Jul 2014, 07:49

Capvermell
Isn't there any chance that ATC Radar will have captured the missile's path from launch to impact with its target. Of course as the Ukrainians have not so far come up with anything then perhaps not. No doubt ATC monitoring facilities in that region are still primitive in the extreme.

I can assure you that in that part of Russia / Ukraine the ATC radar tracking abilities are far from primitive, they may let you think they are.

Pucka

20th Jul 2014, 08:43

Let's hope that with all of the debate about whether MH17 and other traffic should even have been on that airway, that ICAO and IATA decide on a consistent plan to avoid hot airspace and airways that are proximate to hot zones. Afghan, Syrian! Libyan and Iraqi airspace should now be considered areas to avoid...even possibly Pakistan for overflight! particularly to their North and Western boundaries...this also puts the Pilots decision to accept the given CFP route into question..handing back authority to the crew again?

SadPole

20th Jul 2014, 08:53

@Green Guard (http://www.pprune.org/members/19828-green-guard)
Ukraine responsible for airspace safety: IATA (http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/ukraine-responsible-for-airspace-safety-iata-20140720-zuzmp.html)
Finally some meaningful discussion and data in the media.

http://images.smh.com.au/2014/07/20/5610315/1405830401939.jpg-620x349.jpg

KLM809 flight-paths are especially revealing. Clearly, they attempted (and twice flown) through what was officially closed airspace of the Crimea restriction zone, which was safe (but officially disallowed), and on other occasions flown the northern Donetsk route, which was officially open, but obviously very unsafe due to confirmed SAM activities. Coincidence, or did they try to steer off the Donetsk route but on some occasions were not allowed to.

Therefore, situation was a complete FUBAR. Local ATC should have closed the airspace in situation such as this and ICAO should always be breathing down their necks when something like this goes on. Instead, it appears everyone was playing politics, as usual. Trying to punish Russia by excluding Crimea space to force the routes over Ukraine did not make any sense as the traffic had to enter Russia space anyway. If someone was determined to play such punishments, restricting all Russia east of Ukraine would have made much more sense.

This is why blaming MH staff for this in any way is insane. How could they do things differently? By having their own intelligence crew for each country they are overflowing? Monitoring press reports about who and when captured SAMs?

Yes, it's disgusting that any cretins would be shooting at things in the sky without knowing what they were shooting at. But, ironically, for them to know what they were shooting at, they would have to have full support of Russian radar and C&C facilities - meaning full Russian involvement and not silly proxy games.

But, from the rebel point of view, (being bombed and shelled daily) it is easy to see why they would think that one would have to be completely NUTS to fly over that area.

(p.s. - From the maps, next time I'm flying I would go for BA or AirFrance. They obviously sensed the FUBAR, even though were not legally required to do so, and routed clear of it. )

Mark in CA

20th Jul 2014, 09:07

It now appears all of the bodies that have been recovered have been taken "somewhere" by pro-Russian forces in the area.

Associated Press journalists saw the pro-Russia rebels putting bagged bodies onto trucks at the crash site Saturday in rebel-held eastern Ukraine and driving them away.

Ukraine: Rebels have taken all plane crash bodies (http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-rebels-taken-plane-crash-bodies-082424096--finance.html)

A later report now says they've been put into refrigeration:

http://news.yahoo.com/rail-workers-bodies-ukraine-crash-put-refrigerator-trucks-075954241--sector.html

Pontius Navigator

20th Jul 2014, 09:24

Isn't there any chance that ATC Radar will have captured the missile's path from launch to impact with its target. Of course as the Ukrainians have not so far come up with anything then perhaps not. No doubt ATC monitoring facilities in that region are still primitive in the extreme..

Actually a primitive ACT system might rather than a modern one that will usually only be working on secondary radar.

There is more chance of Ukrainian military radar seeing the intercept, but whether they recorded the data is something else.

Regarding Russian radar it depends on the distance from the border.

Then considering detection of the SAM radar(s), that is unlikely as a ground-based detection system would need to be within a few miles of the battery. Best bet for detection would be AWACS but the transmission duration would probably be brief.

TC_Ukraine

20th Jul 2014, 09:33

Ukrainian military forces lost all radars at eastern Ukraine during conflict. some were captured, other destroyed. Uksatse lost one secondary radar.

Pontius Navigator

20th Jul 2014, 09:45

TC but are there radars still under their control nearby?

I think Ole's comment on the missile smoke trail is right, do you concur?

Capetonian

20th Jul 2014, 09:53

i also feel sorry for Malaysian Airlines as they have had two major disasters not of their making!That statement is very much open to debate.

However ......... reading some of the reports about not just the shooting down of the aircraft, which I still believe may have been accidental, I am filled with revulsion at the way the 'authorities', for want of a better word, in Ukraine, have handled this, obstructing salvage efforts, not treating the deceased with even the minimum of respect, allowing looting ......... it is beyond belief. How appalling for those who have lost loved ones to see their bodies being treated in this way.

MH17: Malaysia Airlines crash victims robbed of their dignity by rebels - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10978577/MH17-Malaysia-Airlines-crash-victims-robbed-of-their-dignity-by-rebels.html)
.... bodies were being left to rot amid the wreckage in temperatures of 85F (29.4C), ........
“It basically looks like the biggest crime scene in the world right now, guarded by a bunch of guys in uniform with heavy firepower who are quite inhospitable.”
Ukrainian officials accused the rebels of destroying evidence of “international crimes” and allowing cash and credit cards to be stolen from the dead. In September 1978 an Air Rhodesia Viscount was shot down by Zipra terrorists. 18 people survived and half of those were slaughtered on the ground by the terrorists. In February 1979 another RH Viscount was shot down. The BBC 'chose' to omit these two events from its list of civilian shootdowns published a few days ago.

Reverend John Da Costa, Dean of St. Mary and all Saints in Salisbury delivered a sermon at the memorial for the victims of the first massacre. Much of what he said applies to MH017.

I fear that after the rhetoric from Obama and Cameron, a few verbal slaps on the wrist will be delivered to Mr. Putin for covertly supporting the rebels, and this will all die down and be forgotten.

I'm not aware of any statement from Ban Ki Moon of the useless toothless UN taking on this - I may have missed it.

David Cameron said the European Union needed to “reconsider its approach to Russia”, suggesting further sanctions are likely (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/10978454/MH17-Vladimir-Putin-must-feel-pain-of-sanctions.html)

Amid growing condemnation Mr Hammond told the Telegraph: “It’s a fundamental principle of human decency that the victims and their possessions should be treated with dignity. I have seen reporting in the media which suggests that these norms are not being respected. We have no evidence that this is the case - but if it turns out to be so, those responsible can be sure they will be held to account for their crimes."
A senior British source said: “Putin needs to feel some pain before he will change his behaviour.”

I'm sure Putin is quaking in his boots.

The Silence is Deafening (http://www.rhodesia.nl/silence.htm)
Much of this applies today as it did 36 years ago.
Nobody who holds sacred the dignity of human life can be anything but sickened at the events attending the crash.........But are we deafened with the voice of protest from nations which call themselves "civilised"? We are not. Like men in the story of the Good Samaritan, they "pass by, on the other side." One listens for loud condemnation.
One listens and the silence is deafening.
One listens for loud condemnation by the President of the United States.
One listens for loud condemnation by the Pope, by the Chief Rabbi, by the Archbishop of Canterbury, by all who love the name of God.
Again the silence is deafening.

First, those who fired the guns. Who were they? Youths and men who, as likely as not. Men who went over to the other side in a few months were so indoctrinated that all they had previously learned was obliterated.

Second, it is common knowledge that in large parts of the world violence is paraded on TV and cinema screens as entertainment. Films about war, murder, violence, rape devil-possession and the like are "good box-office". Peak viewing time is set aside for murderers from Belfast,, Palestine, Europe, Africa and the rest, to speak before an audience of tens of millions. Thugs are given full treatment, as if deserving of respect.
Not so the victims' relations.
Who else is to be blamed?
The United Nations.......... I am sure they both bear blame in this. Each parade a pseudo-morality which, like all half-truths, is more dangerous than the lie direct. From the safety and comfort of New York and Geneva, high moral attitudes can safely be struck. For us in the sweat, the blood, the suffering, it is somewhat different.
. The ghastliness of this ill-fated flight ...... will be burned upon our memories for years to come. For others, far from our borders, it is an intellectual matter, not one which affects them deeply. Here is the tragedy!
The especial danger of Marxism is its teaching that human life is cheap, expendable, of less importance than the well-being of the State. But there are men who call themselves Christians who have the same contempt for other human beings, and who treat them as being expendable.
.
I have nothing but amazement at the silence of so many of the political leaders of the world..

ilesmark

20th Jul 2014, 10:40

Pontius Navigator

20th Jul 2014, 11:02

Hi all.

Apols if this has been posted before, but a Kazakh-Russian acquaintance who I've been talking to about this ghastly tragedy has mentioned that a BUK missile is only accurate up to 6000 m if fired from a single launcher, and that to down a plane at 10000 meters needs a whole network of 3-4 stations working.

Is this true?

No. It is all to do with PK - kill probability. To achieve a 95% probability you may need 2 missiles etc. Firing just one against a manoeuvring target may have only 30% and maybe 50% on a large non-'manoeuvring' one.

It is in the nature of statistics that a single missile may get a hit.

Cows getting bigger

20th Jul 2014, 11:13

Pontius Indeed. Furthermore, in this circumstance the target was almost definitely not trying to evade the missile nor would it have had defensive aids, all adding to the PK.

stuckgear

20th Jul 2014, 11:13

I'm assuming that Russia has a case to answer in criminal terms, for the supply of these things in the first instance

Does Russia have a case to answer over the Antonov also shot down preceding MH17.. or the Hind's also shot down?*

Dangerous Escalation in Ukraine: Separatists May Have Captured More than 100 Missiles (http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/07/18/Dangerous-escalation-in-Ukraine-separatists-may-have-captured-more-than-100-missiles)

The self-defense forces of Donetsk People’s Republic seized control of a Ukrainian anti-air military installation, RIA Novosti reports.
"The forces of Donetsk People’s Republic assumed control of A-1402 military base," the militia's representative said. According to him, it is an anti-aircraft missile forces facility equipped with Buk mobile surface-to-air missile systems.
During the last several days the militia took control of two internal security troops' installations in eastern Ukraine.
This report, from the end of last month, has had little play in the Western media, which has preferred to focus on reports from security sources that the rocket launchers (and tanks and APCs) used by the separatists were supplied by the Putin regime.

Meanwhile MH17 Tragedy is 'An Opportunity' Says Crass Eurocrat (http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/07/19/Crass-Eurocrat-calls-Malaysia-Airlines-tragedy-an-opportunity)

In a display of insensitivity extraordinary even for a Brussels bureaucrat, a European Union official has told journalists that the downing of the Malaysian flight over Eastern Ukraine "provides an opportunity" for the EU to have "direct contact for the first time" with pro-Russian separatists.

The playing of politics over this, from all sides, is objectionable and an offront to the victims. I for one am disgusted over the political leverage MH17 is being used for.

Note: * i have no particular love for Russia, the Ukraine, the EU and am only looking at MH17 as a tradgic incident with cause and circumstance.

hamster3null

20th Jul 2014, 11:15

Hi all.

Apols if this has been posted before, but a Kazakh-Russian acquaintance who I've been talking to about this ghastly tragedy has mentioned that a BUK missile is only accurate up to 6000 m if fired from a single launcher, and that to down a plane at 10000 meters needs a whole network of 3-4 stations working.

Is this true?

I have not seen anything of a kind in any SA-11 spec writeups. A single launcher in autonomous mode has a radar with the range of 65-75 km and there's no plausible reason why it should only be accurate to 6 km.

Also keep in mind that it's designed to handle supersonic fighter jets (moving up to mach 2.5) so a 777 would be a very easy target.

Ian W

20th Jul 2014, 12:25

We need some objectivity here.

Their is no evidence that either the separatists nor their alleged Russian sponsors are responsible for this, and any reports by OSCE observers need to be taken within the context of their agenda, they are not as many imagine totally unbiased.

I would also take with a pinch of salt the reports of drunk separatists shooting their guns whilst swigging from bottles as they loot passenger belongings. Somebody is pushing their agenda it seems.

We even have the US arguing (quite rightly) for a full independent investigation and then in the next sentence stating that this was the fault (indirectly or directly) of the Russian Federation.

What we don't have is any facts.

This is totally false.

We have some 'facts'

* MH17 was shot down
* Irregulars supported by Russia are preventing civilian access to the crash site and recovery of civilian bodies

They are indisputable 'facts' for you.

Russia / Putin could provide access to that site in minutes. If Russian special forces which are doubtless in large numbers 'close to the scene' were ordered to make that crash site available to recover bodies the irregulars would not dare intervene.

The fact that Russia is not assisting even in just the humanitarian recovery of bodies of civilians means they deserve all the opprobrium people wish to give them.

OleOle

20th Jul 2014, 12:35

Interview with Michael Bociurkiw (OSCE) who is/was on the crash site:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESzmymN5JCc#t=69

Graphic summary of the crash site:

Malaysian MH17 Airliner Crash Photos (http://cryptome.org/2014-info/mh17/mh17.htm)

Easy Street

20th Jul 2014, 12:45

To all those wondering how the Americans claim to know what happened, try reading these Wiki references. Surface radar observations are not required.

MASINT (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measurement_and_signature_intelligence)

Space-Based Infrared System (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-Based_Infrared_System)

Space Tracking and Surveillance System (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Tracking_and_Surveillance_System)

Trumpet (satellite) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trumpet_(satellite))

These systems would tell the US exactly where the missile was launched, track the missile in flight, observe the explosion, analyse the spectral traces of the missile efflux and the warhead detonation, and record the SAM radar emissions. The missile's speed and trajectory and the characteristics of the efflux, warhead and radar can all be used to identify the missile system.

With all this information to hand, you can understand why Obama was in a position to point the finger only hours after the news broke. The accident site will yield more information; explosive residues, missile parts, etc, and those will be the sticks with which the international community beats Russia in due course. The US will almost certainly keep its MASINT secret because:

1) Those who already know what happened (e.g. Putin) will merely have their knowledge of US MASINT capabilities enhanced;
2) Those who disbelieve everything the US says will just say the US is lying;
3) Those who believe the US don't actually need to see the evidence in order to trust what Obama said.

So I think there is little chance we'll ever see any of this highly-classified intelligence. But perhaps the conspiracy theorists might consider that the US case against the separatists is based on evidence more substantial than a few tweets, a Facebook post and a (allegedly) doctored telephone conversation.

Ian W

20th Jul 2014, 12:46

Multiple reports indicate that it was known several days prior that the undisciplined irregular separatist/rebel army had acquired control of a SAM system capable of bringing down large aircraft at altitude. Now, if so, and if Kiev was aware (and there are multiple reports indicating they were) why they did not immediately close the airspace over the area within which said undisciplined irregular armed units were operating is a question they need to answer.:ugh:

Possibly they thought that nobody would be so stupid as to take out a civil airliner at random.

Also as evidenced here by the 'professionals', pilots and civil aviation experts are not exactly knowledgeable about the capabilities of military hardware.

Perhaps the military intel being passed to civil should be 'dumbed down' and instead of "the rebels have several Buk launchers" it should have been "the rebels are operating surface to air missiles which can destroy aircraft up to 72,000 ft". Then the FL320 restriction would have been seen as less than adequate.

SadPole

20th Jul 2014, 12:52

If Russian special forces which are doubtless in large numbers 'close to the scene' were ordered to make that crash site available to recover bodies the irregulars would not dare intervene. That's not exactly true and shows that the West is again looking at the whole thing through the prism of their fantasies about Ukraine, and not realities on the ground.

Kiev government took power through a coup, was opposed by most of the population of the Eastern Ukraine. Almost entire military in Eastern Ukraine rebelled against Kiev, and they have all the equipment that Western Ukraine has. What's more, Kiev had to pretty much build the leadership and new army (national guard) from scratch because most of them were Russians opposing Kiev and part of the problem was that cash-strapped Ukraine was not paying the soldiers for months.

The only reason the rebels were not using SAMs before was because it took Kiev a lot of time to reassemble something resembling an air-force - the rebels had nothing useful to shoot at.

It was totally childish by the West to treat the insurrection in Eastern Ukraine as bunch of drunk losers with peashooters and not trained military force equal to that of Kiev. Their equipment and training is at least at the level of Kiev forces. The fact that Kiev forces were scoring some victories lately (marked with heavily shelled towns) shows that Putin was actually bowing to pressure and stopped supporting the rebels in meaningful fashion. So, ironically, he probably is in this mess because he unplugged the rebels from C&C support.

BUK system is intended as completely mobile platform intended to secure air-space for advancing tanks and rest of such toys. It can operate as part of integrated system, but its chief purpose is being an autonomous weapon protecting advancing columns on the ground. Interestingly, even Russia does not have effective countermeasures/control of BUK because they lost some of their advanced planes in Georgia because of BUKs smuggled from, (where else?) Ukraine.

p.s. In today's speeches, Ukrainian politicians demanded advanced weaponry from the West so they can finally "bring order".

robdean

20th Jul 2014, 13:09

Sad Pole,
I'm sure there is a lot of insight in what you write. And indeed Putin seemed to be pulling back from supporting the rebels: I wonder if missiles might have been either an intended counterbalance to the overall weakening of support or possibly a more locally instigated attempt to offset that pullback.

I must suggest, though, that the Western picture of primitive ignorant drunken thugs rather than a disciplined military force is maybe less derived from prejudice than from endless video footage of drunk unwashed chaps in balaclavas waving AK47s and apparently under no coherent authority or acting in anything like a civilized manner...

5 APUs captain

20th Jul 2014, 14:01

2 SadPole:

Yes, you are absolutely right, but: not pro-western comments are deleted usually.
I have relatives in Cremea as well as in Donetsk area and know a bot more, then european and american "writers", but.... I have no right to write what I know about this case.

Kellydavies

20th Jul 2014, 14:56

I agree. Let them think they can manipulate the evidence when we already know. It's really ignorant to think this can be completely covered up so my concern is the same.

rog747

20th Jul 2014, 15:10

TEEEJ

20th Jul 2014, 15:22

Tsenis,

I agree it is easy to jump to conclusions and it does need verification. If it is indeed Krasnoarmeysk it should be easy for the person on Twitter making the claim to photograph the exact location seen with billboard, road etc.

Other claims have been made about the transporter truck.

Looks like the same transporter truck with Buk on back? Claimed to have been seen in a rebel convoy that entered Snizhne.

http://media2.romaniatv.greenlab.ro/image/201407/w400h400/arma2_30847600.jpg

http://img.topky.sk/big/1383733.jpg

Claimed to have been seen in convoy with a separatist truck although there doesn't seem to be any footage of the two together? The milita truck appears to be one of the separatist "Mad Max" type conversions?

Max Max truck conversions at 0:26, 01:00 and in convoy at 02:46

llJdvbBIiGQ&feature=related

Kellydavies

20th Jul 2014, 15:31

If you are looking for an apology 26 years later, as a US citizen, I feel remorse my country made such a horrible mistake taking almost 300 innocent peoples lives and my heart goes out to the families. I wish we would have apologized more than paying $60 million dollars which shows responsibility, but I wish we would have shown more feeling.

I was a widow at 20 with a 3 week old son after a plane crash and while money can never replace the loss of a husband and father, atleast the US government gave $60 million to the families to try to make the lives easier for the loved ones lost. Financial help would have greatly helped me raise a child alone and I would have felt his life had value and frankly, Food, clothing and shelter would have been the apology I needed more than words.

As a pilot, we have much responsibility to stay on course and not stray into hostile territory and to vigilantly monitor 121.5 and other frequencies when near danger (like in the case of Iran Air). Even in non war zones, like flying in the US, if I lose radios and fly into Washington DC and NY and do not follow procedures, there is a possibility, another terrorist act could be suspected and I may be shot down by my own country to prevent thousands from being killed. The job of an airline pilot is no joke and you have to know what you are doing.

Flying through a war zone where planes have been shot down a few days ago is just irresponsible. Our airlines management must be aware of where they send their crew and aircraft and put them in harms way and not wait for the information to come to them. Airlines management must be proactive! In the case of Malaysian, other airlines understood not to fly in this area. There are layers of protection and everyone must do their part responsibly. My airline put out bulletins to all pilots, that we were prohibited from flying in the area Malaysian was in.

That aside, anytime innocent people are killed tragically those responsible should, admit their mistakes like men instead of sub human beings below animals, show remorse and human feelings for their mistake and make restitution, not to mention cooperate as much as possible.

TEEEJ

20th Jul 2014, 15:42

Rottenray,

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsxabpVIAAALK9c.jpg:large

That is the remains of an anti-tank guided missile. Looks like a Konkurs? That area must be littered with ordnance and remnants so no wonder that a journalist would come across it.

stuckgear

20th Jul 2014, 15:52

Russia / Putin could provide access to that site in minutes. If Russian special forces which are doubtless in large numbers 'close to the scene' were ordered to make that crash site available to recover bodies the irregulars would not dare intervene.

The fact that Russia is not assisting even in just the humanitarian recovery of bodies of civilians means they deserve all the opprobrium people wish to give them.

I disagree.

Wtih the western media playing the propganda that it was Putin's finger on the button, if Russian forces were to become involved in military action to secure the site, then it throws up all kinds of allegations that Putin/Russia is taking over the site for whatever nefarious puproses anyone can wish to alledge.

Further, it would become a international issue in that one state was sending military personnel into another state and would engender shreiks of declaration of war/state take over, with the resulting allegations against Putin/Russia.

Putin's response has been that there must be a thorough and objective investigation, which in all respects, emotive issues and shrieks and finger pointing aside is actually correct.

The site is on Ukranian soil, it is down to the Ukranians, no matter what faction to ensure that international incident investigators and recovery teams be given access.

As per Putin, a thorough and objective investigation not including political leverage must take place. The media is shreiking from all sides with fantasy, allegation and in some case downright lies and fiction. This has NO place in an investigation into the loss of a civil aircraft with the souls on board.

Using this for political leverage is an offront to the victims and families of the passengers and crew.

A_Van

20th Jul 2014, 15:57

Gentlemen, why not to talk technical issues (or issues that may be related to facts) rather than emotions and politics?
I am not sure the recorders will help if it were a ground-to-air missile. Studying the debris may only help if it were not the "Buk" system involed, but a larger one like C-200/300. The locations of the latter ones are known well enough and this could narrow the scope. But the Buks are owned by all the sides currently blaming each other.
A couple of days ago the US officials vaguely mentioned they had some proofs that the launch was triggered from the territory controlled by the separatists (village or town of Snezhnoye). Could all this stuff be put on the table? If they refer to the early warning satellite system (which indeed works 24/7), its accuracy is in (big) question. I assume that the 90-95% probability ellipsoid is measured out in tens of miles and thus could also cover the locations of some Buk launch systems of the regular army.
The Russian MoD reported shortly after the accident that their stations of radio-intelligence recorded the Buk radar signals operating in different combat modes, the signals coming from several Buk complexes arranged in a networks. They were, for sure, the army ones (because only army has the networks of them). It is also known that they were relocated to the conflict area shortly before the tragedy. Actually means nothing, only proving that the teams were either training or testing the systems.
If there were some LEO satellite photos ("spy sats") that pictured the launch, this would raise another question: how could it happen that the camera was looking at this particular location at this particular moment? The constellation of those sats is not covering the whole earth area on the 24/7 basis, at all. They are orbiting the planet, not hanging on a geostationary orbit or a highly-elliptical one.
Thus, I am afraid that totally convincing "technical" proofs would not be found.

stuckgear

20th Jul 2014, 15:58

Dutch relatives speaking on SKY news just now at Schipol Airport say

''Mr Putin - I want my children home -- I want to arrange their funerals - where are they? - they are rotting in field somewhere''

shameful

Yes it is shameful.

It is shameful that the media frenzy, devoid of facts, is playing politics.

Ukraine is a separate state to Russia, Putin has no control over Ukraine.

The Ukranians are not retards, they are not some alternative species, they are not incapable people.

The correct statement should be:

''Mr Yatsenyuk - I want my children home -- I want to arrange their funerals - where are they? - they are rotting in field somewhere''

The media behaviour on this is not only disgusting it is highly dangerous and inflammatory.

sitigeltfel

20th Jul 2014, 15:59

if Russian forces were to become involved in military action to secure the site, then it throws up all kinds of allegations that Putin/Russia is taking over the site for whatever nefarious puproses anyone can wish to alledge.

Putin is desperately trying to distance himself from this tragedy. If he was to use the influence he undoubtedly has, it would place him even closer to culpability.

AreOut

20th Jul 2014, 17:12

the responsibility should be shared between those who shot down the plane, those who improperly trained them and those who allowed the plane to fly that corridor because they sure were informed of aforementioned two facts

Rakshasa

20th Jul 2014, 17:30

There are counter claims that the alleged video was shoot in Krasnoarmeysk which is controlled by Ukrainian government since May.

Transport of BUK System to Russia filmed – really?

After some geolocation work I tend to believe this version of the story, although reluctantly since I know both parties are engeaged in a dirty Pr war.

Any way I do not base conclutions on videos & pictures posted here and there without verification

tsenis, the Krasnoarmeysk claim has already been disproved on other websites. You can see a low rooftop in the back ground, meaning the terrain slopes and there are trolley bus cables visible behind the billboard.

Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian held) sits on a flat plain and doesn't have a trolley bus line.

Krasnodon (rebel held) sits on a hill and does have a trolley bus line.

Chronus

20th Jul 2014, 18:21

Until very recently on another thread we were debating the issue of Heightened Security Alert, emergency laws and measures. It seems fat lot of good it did making sure all air travellers had charged up batteries for their lap tops, tablets, mobile phones, shavers and all manner of other electronic gizzmos. All the spooks must have been so busy with this nonsense they overlooked the obvious, the real shooting war going on over there in Eastern Ukraine. Should they also not be held accountable for this tragedy.

olasek

20th Jul 2014, 19:23

Speed of disclosure, impartiality, and co-operation is what this incident desperately needs right now. Primarily for the sakes of the victims' relatives.
Tell this to the masked and camouflaged rebels who control this piece of land, or tell this to whoever controls them, otherwise it is meaningless.

grebllaw123d

20th Jul 2014, 19:28

Rottenray has in post #528 a link to a site showing remains of a missile found at the crash scene(?):
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsxabpVIAAALK9c.jpg:large

He has the opinion that the picture shown has been photoshopped and gives a number of reasons for his standpoint.

I do not know whether the picture is photoshopped, but I am convinced that the missile shown is NOT a SA11. I have compared the missile shown with a very clear picture of a SA11 from the following link:
Buk missile system - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system#mediaviewer/File:9K37_Buk_M1_SA-11_Gadfly.JPG)

Look at the fins for example - on the missile shown in the first link they are almost as high as the diameter of the missile itself. On the next link (showing a genuine SA11!) they are about half the size of the missile diameter.
And there are no external fasteners on a SA11, and although hard to judge, I should think that the first missile is much smaller that a SA11.
I also think that a missile falling from more that 10000 meters would show much more damage than can be seen on the picture.
Whether the missile shown is an anti-tank missile as suggested by TEEEj in post #564, I do not know.

I do think that the B777 was shot down, but with a missile not in any way connected with the remains shown in the first link.

slip and turn

20th Jul 2014, 19:43

I don't know if others have yet seen it, but FR24 are now providing access to a form of playback.

The flight appears to have reached FL310 overhead Bielefeld in western Germany long before cruising across Poland at that altitude. Upon entering Ukraine airspace over an hour later, it climbed to FL330 and appeared to remain at that altitude for over an hour before it was downed.

On that evidence, any spin on that story that the aircraft was instructed to descend from FL350 to FL330 "only minutes before" it was downed would appear to be extremely questionable.

I do not for one minute believe that any major power ordered or manipulated the shootdown, but it is surely an international crime by unknown individuals working for major powers that these types of weapon were knowingly and recently entrusted to thugs and incompetents and thereby civilian traffic was permitted to be routinely and unknowingly risked daily.

Since the major powers like to play politics while loved ones lie rotting far from home with no-one admitting anything, I would like to know whether it is Aviation War Risks underwriters or Aviation Non-War Risks underwriters who are preparing to shoulder this loss ? Or will they and their advisors also be playing politics tomorrow Monday morning in the City?

Had any underwriters already designated this airspace as a war zone ?

I heard this weekend that there are over 40 current wars being waged in this world. How many get flown over daily as routine? I wonder how many are designated as actual war zones by aviation underwriters who are supposed to be the risk experts?

con-pilot

20th Jul 2014, 19:51

I heard this weekend that there are over 40 current wars being waged in this world. How many get flown over daily as routine? I wonder how many are designated as actual war zones by aviation underwriters who are supposed to be the risk experts?

With my last company we had "War area" coverage, it cost extra, not all that much either, but we did have coverage for overflying an active war 'zone/area'.

I seem to remember some exclusions, but what areas I cannot recall now.

WilyB

20th Jul 2014, 20:00

SadPole (p.s. - From the maps, next time I'm flying I would go for BA or AirFrance. They obviously sensed the FUBAR, even though were not legally required to do so, and routed clear of it. )

Interesting that the two European countries with the most complete military forces were the only ones to really pay attention.

What I don't get is KLM? AF was avoiding Ukraine, but KLM was not... :ooh:

slip and turn

20th Jul 2014, 20:08

What I don't get is KLM? AF was avoiding Ukraine, but KLM was not...Homogeneity and synergy at its most flakey ? Or simply different insurance underwriting arrangements permitted to persist ? I wonder what those who know the answer within the group and in the City are thinking right now.

SAMPUBLIUS

20th Jul 2014, 20:10

Here is video proof

Black box retrieved at Ukraine crash site | Video | Reuters.com (http://www.reuters.com/video/2014/07/20/black-box-retrieved-at-ukraine-crash-sit?videoId=324293961)

con-pilot

20th Jul 2014, 20:18

Most likely the "black boxes" are not going to show a thing except normal ops until they suddenly stop, when the tail was blow off by the missile.

Sea-man

20th Jul 2014, 20:47

Can someone explain why some airlines were flying through the area and others not i.e. based on which criteria, and what's the meaning of closing an airspace up to FL320? If a SAM able to get to, say FL300 wouldn't it be able to get to FL330 or higher? Either the FL320 cap was intended to provide some margin over a SAM operating altitude of say 20000/25000 ft. But not being an expert, how many missile systems reaching 20000 ft wouldn't be able to get much higher? It seems to me either the decision not to close the entire airspace earlier was very irresponsible or the airlines flying through eastern Ukraine hadn't done a proper risk assessment or both. Obviously I would expect the uncertainty over an airspace closing boundaries to be higher in cases of war/conflict like this than, say , of a volcanic ash cloud where there would be measurements, models to extrapolate the concentration of ash. Here, as soon as authorities have reason to believe there is a use of advanced weapons (not short range, not near surface) then shouldn't they factor uncertainty much more hence closing airspace? And knowing this may be not the case with some governments, shouldn't airlines factor it by taking over the risk and hence avoiding completely the area (as apparently some have done?)

SLFplatine

20th Jul 2014, 20:49

What I don't get is KLM? AF was avoiding Ukraine, but KLM was not...Perhaps because the KL flights were to Kuala Lumpur and the AF flights were to Bangkok?

Profit Max

20th Jul 2014, 20:57

But not being an expert, how many missile systems reaching 20000 ft wouldn't be able to get much higher?Most of the ones you would normally worry about when overflying areas with rebels, terrorists, or the like. The missiles they usually have are launched from the shoulder, and will only reach targets flying at 25,000 feet or lower.

olasek

20th Jul 2014, 21:05

then shouldn't they factor uncertainty much more hence closing airspace? Listen, it is easy to laugh now, post fact and point out that it was obvious that airspace should have been closed. If you are so clever and everybody else so dumb you should have been here the day before this shooting and warn everyone. Knowledge about what weapons were in the area (and some could imply be rolled in through the border within hours) was quite sporadic and incomplete, not to mention it was hard to predict someone would be so dumb to shoot up and not even engage in routine warning to traffic in the area.

1stspotter

20th Jul 2014, 21:10

Rottenray has in post #528 a link to a site showing remains of a missile found at the crash scene(?):
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsxabpVIAAALK9c.jpg:large

He has the opinion that the picture shown has been photoshopped and gives a number of reasons for his standpoint.

I do not know whether the picture is photoshopped, but I am convinced that the missile shown is NOT a SA11. I have compared the missile shown with a very clear picture of a SA11 from the following link:
Buk missile system - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

CNN was showing footage of what looked like the crashscene of MH17. However the video showed parts of the MH17 crashscene mixed with parts of another crash scene in Ukraine. Most like the IL76 crash scene. The missle is not a SA-11.
See this image https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/490955162635497472/photo/1

Video of CNN here First-hand account of MH17 crash site: Bodies are scattered ? The Lead with Jake Tapper - CNN.com Blogs (http://thelead.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/17/first-hand-account-of-mh17-crash-site-bodies-are-scattered/)

AirScotia

20th Jul 2014, 21:10

Most of the ones you would normally worry about when overflying areas with rebels, terrorists, or the like. The missiles they usually have are launched from the shoulder, and will only reach targets flying at 25,000 feet or lower.

This excludes flights in normal cruise, but presumably not those that have unpredicted issues such as depressurisation?

wiggy

20th Jul 2014, 21:21

Frankly over the last couple of days I must admit I've been amazed at how many of my colleagues seem to be gob smacked that a SAM can "get high enough take out an airliner".....best I can politely come up is to refer them to Gary Powers.....

These darn things will either struggle to get above 15k .....or they won't struggle at all .....

In the former case we make sure we're not in the envelope, in the later case we just have to overfly the sites ( I'm sure I'm not the only one who has seen the "Star of David" entanglements around some Middle eastern cities, one in particular ) and realise that we rely on some sense of decency, ROE, and order. I have certainly had reason to hope that someone was not as daft , as olasek put it, to be "so dumb to shoot up and not even engage in routine warning to traffic in the area".

HappyAs

20th Jul 2014, 21:31

Interesting perspective from a disillusioned Russian journo
Russian media is covering up Putin's complicity in the MH17 tragedy | Masha Alekhina | Comment is free | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/19/russian-media-cover-up-putin-mh17-tragedy)

jmmilner

20th Jul 2014, 21:41

What I don't get is KLM? AF was avoiding Ukraine, but KLM was not...AF and KLM were merged at the corporate level back in 2004. I'd put down AF's choice of route down to being the most direct route from CDG while KLM made the equivalent choice from AMS. Saving money on every flight is what drives routing decisions, not the remote chance that flying one route verses another will result in a black swan.

That MH elected the least costly route is an even more obvious economic decision for an airline that was already in terminal condition.

Easy Street

20th Jul 2014, 21:44

In the light of apparent scant understanding of SAM capability and its implications for overflight of conflict zones, could there be a case for ATPL knowledge to include some very basic stuff about the differences between MANPADS and radar SAMs, and an overview of some unclassified "Jane's"-type performance figures? At least that knowledge would give pilots an insight into why their company's minimum flight level over Afghanistan is X, or why they need to avoid Eastern Ukraine by Y miles. Surely that knowledge would be more useful than a lot of the other stuff in ATPL....

For the earlier poster asking about why FL320 and below were considered higher risk... 24000ft is about the max capability of state-of-the-art MANPADS, of the type that you would expect only major militaries to have (but who knows?). Add a 33% safety margin and you get 32000ft. The performance of these things falls away very rapidly outside their envelope. In all likelihood you'd be perfectly safe at 300. So there is no need to add a further margin onto what was already a generous safety factor - for a MANPADS.

The moment it looked likely that radar SAMs were being thrown around, that whole calculus should have been thrown out. The appropriate question was then "how far do I need to avoid the area by"? There are a couple of radar SAMs that can be overflown safely at 300+, but the SA-11 isn't one of them.

jmmilner

20th Jul 2014, 22:25

In the light of apparent ignorance of SAM capability and its implications for overflight of conflict zones, could there be a case for ATPL knowledge to include some very basic stuff about the differences between MANPADS and radar SAMs, and an overview of some unclassified "Jane's"-type performance figures?As in most things military, maximum performance figures are highly classified and depend on a multitude of factors. Ranges for MANPADs generally assume the target is high performance aircraft that can maneuver aggressively and deploy countermeasures (chaff, flares, jamming) in response to onboard and remote (e.g. AWACS) tracking, lockon, and/or launch warnings. Indeed, defeating a MANPAD these days is often more about geometry and maneuvers (at 6 to 9Gs) to bleed the missile of its finite supply of kinetic energy, something commercial aircraft are unable to do.

Shots at non-maneuvering targets (historically large bombers) would still face countermeasures, while typical commercial aircraft engaged with favorable attack geometry would be a best case for the missile. Other factors not considered are launches from significant heights (Afghan mountains anyone?) which both reduce the distance to a given flight level and increase the missile's range due to reduced air friction.

Once the missile is radar guided, altitude becomes your enemy, not your salvation. The game becomes a combination of low-level flying using terrain masking and the curvature of the earth to defeat ground-based radar, stealth to reduce detection ranges, and speed to challenge the response time of the missile launch system.

All this is a long way of saying that what you are suggesting might give some future airline, government, and/or ICAO some legal cover the next time this does (it will) happen, but nothing else.

AreOut

20th Jul 2014, 23:22

"Listen, it is easy to laugh now, post fact and point out that it was obvious that airspace should have been closed."

now? There is a ukrainian member here on PPRune that wondered why that airspace isn't closed 10-15 days before the crash, and you can be sure there were many professionals (military and civilian) in Ukraine that wondered the same. Why that decision was not brought is anybodys guess.

"These darn things will either struggle to get above 15k .....or they won't struggle at all ....."

BUK will go to around 50K so only Concorde should be safe...oh wait we ditched it because of noise and costs that didn't pose problems half a century ago.

"As in most things military, maximum performance figures are highly classified and depend on a multitude of factors. Ranges for MANPADs generally assume the target is high performance aircraft that can maneuver aggressively and deploy countermeasures (chaff, flares, jamming) in response to onboard and remote (e.g. AWACS) tracking, lockon, and/or launch warnings. Indeed, defeating a MANPAD these days is often more about geometry and maneuvers (at 6 to 9Gs) to bleed the missile of its finite supply of kinetic energy, something commercial aircraft are unable to do."

except israeli El Al...and people were mocking them about that, now I don't say those would 100% work against SA-11(as those countermeasures are designed with MANPADs in mind) but survivability percentage would be significantly higher

RatherBeFlying

20th Jul 2014, 23:30

Most likely the "black boxes" are not going to show a thing except normal ops until they suddenly stop, when the tail was blow off by the missile.The FDR will yield an exact position where power was lost from the tail being severed shortly after detonation. From that position it will be possible to determine the area where the launcher could be located. Shrapnel marks will provide information on missile aspect which may be used to derive the missile vector back to the launch site.

porterhouse

20th Jul 2014, 23:39

BUK will go to around 50K so only Concorde should be safe
Actually BUK goes to 72K so only SR71 would be safe :}

AreOut

20th Jul 2014, 23:51

newer BUK missile does but I think they had the older type which maxes out at around 50

Pace

21st Jul 2014, 00:13

Really whatever the missile was the guilt of who shot down the aircraft was clearly displayed by one sickening fact!

Anyone who was innocent and wanted to show to the world that fact would have secured the crash site and allowed the investigators to remove the bodies with dignity and to then examine every bit of wreckage which itself would have identified the weapon used.

The guilty ones are those that allowed bodies to be removed took away the evidence and stopped the investigators from having access to the crash site.

The DPR and their Russian masters were guilty of this atrocity and proved this with their own actions over the crash site and attempts to clear the evidence.

tsenis

21st Jul 2014, 01:23

May be you can take a look:

who is vandalizing (https://vine.co/v/M2WLQjDuOhA)
who is not (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGvF8GLVKp4#t=18)

also may be take a look at seperatists leader interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AuZ1Ok3s_I&feature=youtu.be) regarding the situation on the ground and how difficult is for them to handle it, lets see their point of view before we jump into conclusions

Don't take me wrong, myself don't have any conclusions yet, I just wait for all this info-war dust to settle down.

olasek

21st Jul 2014, 04:44

Removing wreckage to hide cause of accident as described by US politicians?
Not by US politicians but by OSCE who observed the scene. You don't move actual hardware pieces around unless investigators tell you so. And specially if you are "poor", with dilapidated equipment you don't volunteer and move things around, right?

Maybe they or their government just don't want to go into a war zone
maybe they don't want to be pushed around and micromanaged by masked commandos who tell you where to look and where not to look and look at their watches and tell you your time is up.

mickjoebill

21st Jul 2014, 05:44

Forensic dentist, former assistant surgeon to Oz army, Dr Griffiths interviewed on ABCTV today.

Says the reported delay in refrigerating bodies does not affect victim identification because visual identification has proven time and again to be inaccurate. Decomposition of 5 days, in his experience of the Tsunami, does not affect victim ID.

He gave an example of the Bali bombing, where 18 families had positively identified their loved ones by visual reference, but the bodies were fortunately, not released until DNA was processed.

Of these 18 victims, 9 were wrongly identified by the visual method by their families:eek:

Sadly infants take longest to identify as they have no dental records.
He says 3 weeks is typical for such incidents.

He commented that following Lockerbie there is conjecture, but no evidence if anyone can survive a similar breakup at high altitude. Unless there are survivors it is conjecture, he said.

Severe Clear

21st Jul 2014, 05:44

A while back I posted BUK can climb to at least 72,000' (likely a good deal more)
See Wiki and Jane's for answers to your query. Unless you are drone flight or invisible there are S.A.M's in or near E.Ukraine that will blow you out of the sky.

Any pilot with a curiosity and a computer will find the reality.

207592

21st Jul 2014, 06:06

Has any contributor examined photographs of the debris with a view of spotting damage attributable to a missile strike? I believe I saw fuselage skin exhibiting an outward bend to a panel edge, and a substantial box section that apparently had peculiar failure lines. I have no relevant qualification, but maybe an engineer current on type might be able to say? (I presume accident investigators, past or present, will already have done this, but are wisely keeping their counsel.)

Mahatma Kote

21st Jul 2014, 06:17

It's notoriously difficult to determine if an explosion is internal or external based on a few photographs.

You can easily get impact damage on one part of an aircraft from an explosion on another part. Even disintegrating wheels do this.

A proper investigation - which will happen for sure - will determine the location and type of any disruptive event. For reference, look at the NTSB report on TWA-800 which spent a very long time eliminating a US Navy missile, or terrorist missile, or an internal bomb as the cause for the observed damage.

Bobman84

21st Jul 2014, 06:43

As with another poster, very few people are asking why this particular plane and not Singapore, Air India or any others flying in the vicinity that day.

It takes the BUK 5 minutes to warm and launch a missile, which clearly shows intention to target this specific craft.

No airliner would have such luck to lose two 777s in 4 months without more to the story (as usual).

Blackjack_

21st Jul 2014, 06:46

I expect that the NTSB will be involved in the MH17 investigation as manufacturing country authority. It could even involve the FBI due to American casualties.

They sent out about 45 of our guys at the ATSB to assist alongside NTSB and other investigators. Quite a few very serious jobs involving our guys recently instead of the usual and more common GA incidents and loss of separation investigations/reports.

Hopefully these guys will be alright while investigating.

vianostra

21st Jul 2014, 06:54

Gotta love the comments here about media reports from eastern Ukraine... is it a "media scrum" traipsing around and through the site, or just "media scum"?

Did anyone catch the live Sky News presentation by Colin Brazier yesterday?

Oh why Colin and Sky News production and broadcast team? So wilfully and deliberately, joyously and gleefully, tampering and interfering with evidence and the crime scene by rummaging, sifting, rifling through ( call it what you may ) victims personal belongings on the crash site.

And then for Colin and Sky to apparently apologise and excuse this shameful, appalling, grotesque, disgusting, disgraceful, unprofessional and potentially criminal activity by journalists as due to being caught up the "truly macabre, horrific situation. There is a degree of anarchy and lawlessness." What a horrific and distasteful piece of so-called journalism.

Sadly Colin and Sky News are no better than the assorted motley crew of criminals, hooded thugs, rebels, armed separatists, Russian supporters and protagonists, and other low life that most ppruners here are rightly railing against.

Truly hope that oxygen thieves and appalling and pathetic little men and scumbags like Colin Brazier never make it on to air today and ever again, otherwise I might have to review the Sky subscription.

mickjoebill

21st Jul 2014, 06:55

BBC radio report;
Rebel leader was interviewed, says the bodies in the refrigerated railway cars will be handed over to international investigators, when they arrive.

Scores of volunteers helping in search of bodies.

Fergal Keane's report shows that what appeared to be looting was a typical military response.

BBC News - MH17 air crash: Pro-Russia rebel video of crash aftermath (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28396638)

Media timeline would have us believe the investigators were scared away by a single shot fired by a sole inebriated soldier a few days ago?

I feel for the ill trained and equipped, firemen, local coal miners police and villagers having to deal with the scene.

Average net income in Ukraine is under $200 a month, less in rural areas.
Expecting a western rescue response is unrealistic.

It is a conflict, if not a war zone, it is as chaotic if it had happened in any such area.

Ornis

21st Jul 2014, 06:57

I am sure this was an accident (and nothing more than bad luck for MAS). Had Obama got on the phone to Putin: "Vladimir, we gotta get out heads together on this, what do you want to do?", it's just possible we might have seen some cooperation, at least enough to recover the bodies. Threats were never going to work. Putin doesn't have to do anything and Obama won't. I hope. It's a tragedy for the families but it's not the end of the world. Yet.

dodger_16

21st Jul 2014, 07:01

Every one of the 600 hundred posts above is guesswork, fodder for Daily Mail readers. Sure, speculation with a bit of technical jargon thrown in to make the posters look clever. As someone above said, probably feeding the tabloids.

The supposed experts on SAMs and black boxes etc who are coming out of the woodwork to show off their superior knowledge all miss the point. So do the spookers with their number 17 theories. They are scratching at the surface. This latest incident is another move in a political chess game over which only a small number of individuals world-wide has any knowledge, let alone control. It's all about money.

Whether Putin The Terrible is a bad boy or not, whether Obama has another agenda, as Ron Paul alleges, it doesn't really matter. It'll be forgotten in a few weeks like the last one has been and the truth, as ever, will be concealed because the general population is more interested in celebrities' boob jobs and next week's booze binge and the media is all run by a few select individuals in collaboration with the governments.

ISIS (or IS, who have clearly been having a rest) will be back next week executing children with Ebola and Malaysian airlines will continue to operate as though nothing happened.

Storm in a tea-cup. Sorry about the passengers but, as someone pointed out, the same number of civilians (maybe more) has been killed so far in this Ukranian conflict and get killed in every other conflict every day without the Daily Mail blinking an eye, just not affluent, air travelling white people. A couple of political doctors died, lawyers and bankers whose lives are apparently worth so much more than doctors killed in Iraq, Syria or anywhere else. And who cares about bankers.

Good work, western media, sold a lot of newspapers I hope. :D

dsc810

21st Jul 2014, 07:13

@Mahatma Kote
There is a war zone out there.....it really is not like a normal functioning place with a police force, a compliant population and rule of law....let alone an air accident investigation team.

There will be no 'proper' investigation...any more than there is one is other plane crashes in conflicts.
I guess from launch traces/AWACS/Sat data etc the USA/USSR already know exactly what sub-type of missile it was and from exactly where it was launched.
We know what brought the plane down - the only thing 'we' don't know is who fired it.
I reckon in a few weeks time it will all have been "forgotten" much like MH370 has been.

Anyway
I've long ago issued instructions to those I know that if I get wiped out in a mega-one rather than the usual rubbish about how wonderful I was and how deeply I will be missed to instead issue a statement that I was a complete f'ing moron and didn't give a t8ss about anything.

1stspotter

21st Jul 2014, 07:48

Some images of MH17 remains were shown on internet. Those were damaged by what looks like shrapnel.
Anyone can identify:
-if these are parts of Boeing 777
-if this damage is likely to be caused by a missle like SA-11?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtDH0h0CEAA86Pt.jpg:large

Here is another one
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtDSVRZIQAAR8sZ.jpg:large
and here
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtDEIn0IIAAIo9k.jpg
and here
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtDWnTlIQAAxkIa.png:large

wasthatit

21st Jul 2014, 08:04

Are the 'rebels' this incompetent?

1. The conversation between a rebel commander and one of his troops about the incident is intercepted and available to western media within hours of it happening. The Ukrainian army must know the moves of the rebels before they even make them!

2. The rebels / Russians try to 'spirit away' the BUK launcher with a missile clearly missing. This is done in broad daylight on the back of a low loader with no escort and not even a tarpaulin to try to disguise it.

3. We are told the FDR has gone to Russia. But first we see it being carried across a field (again in broad daylight, with no covering) when the place is full of journos with HD cameras filming them.

Jbardey

21st Jul 2014, 08:10

@Bobman re: SAMs (http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/543733-mh17-down-near-donetsk-30.html#post8572647)

Even missiles from 1961 only had a warm up time of 30 seconds.

V-755U 20DSU (Guideline Mod.3) surface to air missile
AP-755 autopilot, steering fins.
Time to spin up gyroscopes before launch: 30 second
Time to keep gyroscopes spinning without overheating: 5 minutes

This gives a 777 at cruise speed of 900km/h time to move less than 1km which is nothing when you've got detection and missile ranges of 45km to 75km and a target that can't detect, let alone manoeuvre or deploy countermeasures to avoid you.

All this info based on the SA-2E SAM system. For more details check out the "SAM Simulator (https://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home)" and read the supplied documentation then give it a go. You'll be achieving 80% kill rates against similar targets (I use the B52 target drone) in no time at all. You'll see exactly how hard it is to identify different targets from radar scope, but how easy it is to detect, track, lock and fire on a target.

SadPole

21st Jul 2014, 08:13

@Pace

Anyone who was innocent and wanted to show to the world that fact would have secured the crash site and allowed the investigators to remove the bodies with dignity and to then examine every bit of wreckage which itself would have identified the weapon used.

The guilty ones are those that allowed bodies to be removed took away the evidence and stopped the investigators from having access to the crash site.Sorry, but this is just very silly propaganda. Did anyone (EU, OSBE, NTSB) come there with some equipment to deal with the decomposing bodies and evidence or did they just send several whiners to look and complain?

Yes - some international body should have instantly sent troops there to secure the site together with the equipment to collect the bodies and the evidence. I am quite sure all sides would have agreed to it. It was not done because everyone wants to play politics with it, with decomposing bodies, with grieving families and their rage, western politicians first of all.

What was done on the ground was organizing a massive search party for the bodies to collect them and to put them on a train, in refrigerated cars, in order to send them to the West. Did you want them to be left rotting in the fields in 90+ deg F/30+ deg C scorching heat so that politicians could play politics with it some more????

The search party consists mainly of local miners who are well versed in rescue operations as they often have to deal with retrieving bodies of their friends buried in the mine.

cwatters

21st Jul 2014, 08:29

Sorry, but this is just very silly propaganda. Did anyone (EU, OSBE, NTSB) come there with some equipment to deal with the decomposing bodies..

They tried. The OSCE initially sent a team of 80 people with transport. Only four people were allowed access, only on foot and only for one hour.

DIA74

21st Jul 2014, 08:32

We are all speculating, but few are asking WHO would have anything to gain by this awful crime. Surely not the rebels - unless they thought it was incoming military. I tend to think Ukraine would be most likely to gain from it. And of course, if Ukraine did know the rebels had this hardware they stand some responsibility for not shutting down airspace.

AreOut

21st Jul 2014, 08:37

@severe clear

newer variant can, it seems there was an update in 1984 which increased the ceiling for ~26K feet (from 46 to 72), I have read on a russian forum that the system they operated was "more than 30 years old" so I guess it was the older missile

Buk missile system - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system)

not that wikipedia is the most reliable source but they should be right here

@Duralumin
"I'm surprised that no comparison is being made with the Vincennes shoot down of the Iran Air Airbus. The Vincennes captain had all the information including the transponder squawk yet he still shot."

that shows that highly trained professionals also make mistakes, however this is a bit different case as it involves more sides that could be labeled responsible, including those who improperly trained them and actually enabled them to use the weapon and those who had the info about the weapon and their trigger-happiness and still didn't close that airspace

@wasthatit
"Are the 'rebels' this incompetent?"

unfortunately they are...

@Xulu
"I'd like to see the UN move in to secure the area. Then if the rebels have a problem with that, we can destroy them - and if the Russians have a problem with that, then tough luck, they aren't going to declare war on the UN."

heh, there is a small problem..Russians can veto any UN decision

clipstone1

21st Jul 2014, 08:44

As a buyer of Aviation Hull & Liability insurance, Underwriters rarely if ever classify overflight as "War Zones"

The usual rules are if you're flying into a war zone (or what may be considered a former war zone), that is material and depending upon where it is there will be an additional charge. There's no additional charge or restriction to fly into Israel at the moment.

For overflight, so long as the commercial airlanes are open and in using them you're not in contravention of any EU or UN sanctions, there has historcially been no consideration by Underwriters. That may of course have changed as of last Thursday (but we have not been asked any questions about the routes our airlines operate)

orbitjet

21st Jul 2014, 08:58

Breaking News

Heavy gun fire at train station where bodies are stored.

One person dead and buildings are on fire.

Reports of Ukraine tanks moving in.

Journos detained and people are advised to stay indoors.

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/donetsk-train-station-under-fire-with-reports-that-ukrainian-army-is-attacking-rebel-stronghold/story-fnizu68q-1226996517311

Ida down

21st Jul 2014, 09:00

Well let me assure you it does not suit Australia. With 38 dead, and so far not respect shown, indeed indifference to the distressing scenes, this country is far from amused. The Ukraine has requested we send Crash Investigators, they are either innocent, or sure most of the parts needed to make a judgement are now on someone's mantel piece. We would like our dead back, and we would like the perpetrators brought to justice. And it is unlikely we will give up until we get both. We are a small country but a determined one. Putin is going to find us very irritating.

Volume

21st Jul 2014, 09:17

-if these are parts of Boeing 777The first picture is a piece of fuselage crown skin between the cockpit and the first door. The others are not as easily identified.

SadPole

21st Jul 2014, 09:26

@cwatters (http://www.pprune.org/members/43381-cwatters)
They tried. The OSCE initially sent a team of 80 people with transport. Only four people were allowed access, only on foot and only for one hour. Problem is, this cannot be confirmed at all from horse's mouth. See OSCE website:

Ukraine, a developing story | OSCE (http://www.osce.org/ukrainemonitoring)

I could have missed something, but it appears that members of Special Monitoring Mission for Ukraine (that was already there prior to the crash - so they are not crash investigators who know what they are doing or have any equipment) went to the scenes and initially were not allowed to walk around all of the debris field. Then the media, in their usual manner, "improved" upon the story, one copying from another and spicing it up to arrive all sorts of "outrageous" stories. What is your source for OSCE team of 80 people with transport? What was the transport?

OSCE latest news release on the subject is a call for, well "doing something":

In the Declaration, the Permanent Council also supports calls for an open, transparent and independent international investigation, in co-ordination with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), including with participation of technical and forensic experts from the Ukrainian, Malaysian, and Dutch governments as well as other technical and forensic experts and relevant regional bodies.Meanwhile, Putin in his speech calls for a real international investigative team on the site, not some unequipped half-assed observers. Again, it probably is also BS, but it is interesting to compare the BS from both sides.

You would think that internet would have prevented from playing the old propaganda spice-up news stories games.

maliyahsdad2

21st Jul 2014, 09:34

Quote:
-if these are parts of Boeing 777
The first picture is a piece of fuselage crown skin between the cockpit and the first door. The others are not as easily identified. Volume,
Surely they are all of the same part, but it has been turned over in each photograph.

skridlov

21st Jul 2014, 09:35

I notice that in the media there's a constant reiteration of the fact that the use of the Buk missile system (about which I know nothing more than I read on a daily basis here and elsewhere) would require expert assistance from specialists in, or from, the Russian military. This is constantly quoted as undeniable evidence of direct Russian complicity in the act itself. Their ongoing supervision of the insurgency is a given whereas their direct participation is yet to be conclusively demonstrated.

As has been argued previously in this thread there are certain to be many people in Ukraine, especially the eastern Russian speaking region, who were or are current or former members of the Soviet, Russian or Ukrainian military. Amongst whom there are sure to be people trained in the use of this system.

Now I believe, as probably do the majority of spectators to this tragedy, that the evidence of culpability emerged very rapidly during the first few hours after the event, well before the various "interested parties" were able to start manipulating the news in order to serve their various agendas. So I find it very odd that all the politicos from the "victim" countries plus the USA keep insisting that the mere fact of the Buk system's use is de facto evidence of direct Russian participation in the missile's use. This is perfectly possible, quite obviously, but it seems to me to be very shaky as "evidence" and I'm puzzled as to why it's become so prominent.

Caygill

21st Jul 2014, 09:53

Breaking News

Heavy gun fire at train station where bodies are stored.

One person dead and buildings are on fire.

Reports of Ukraine tanks moving in.

Journos detained and people are advised to stay indoors.

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel...-1226996517311

This is REALLY, REALLY bad news. The broader context is that Ukrainian govermental forces seem to have started an offensive on Donetsk (http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741594).

I guess from a military strategy standpoint in make perfect sense to use the window of confusion, but it would be really bad news for the investigation.

Anyone with a rough map of Donetsk vs the crash site?

Caygill

21st Jul 2014, 09:56

Found it: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/17/world/europe/maps-of-the-crash-of-malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17.html?_r=0

Ptkay

21st Jul 2014, 10:11

Breaking News

Heavy gun fire at train station where bodies are stored.

One person dead and buildings are on fire.

Reports of Ukraine tanks moving in.

Journos detained and people are advised to stay indoors.

Read your link and then post.

Heavy gun fire at train station , yes, but in Donetsk, not where the bodies are...

Also fighting and shelling in Donetsk, not at the crash site.

1stspotter

21st Jul 2014, 10:12

This is an interesting article by David Cenciotti. He is a journalist with good knowledge on military aviation.

According to an authoritative source, two Su-27 Flankers escorted the Malaysian Boeing 777 minutes before it was hit by one or more missiles.
The Aviationist » ?All flights, including Malaysian B777, were being escorted by Ukrainian Su-27 Flanker jets over Eastern Ukraine? (http://theaviationist.com/2014/07/21/su-27s-escorted-mh17/)

A quote:
In other words: since the Russian interceptors had downed a Su-25 on the previous days, the Ukrainian escorted all military and civil flights over eastern Ukraine on Jul. 17. Including MH17.

Anyone who flew in this area ever noticed being escorted?

funfly

21st Jul 2014, 10:37

Reading the Dodger-16 post above I can understand his reasoning but if we always stand back from world events and shrug our shoulders then we allow people to freely get away with unsocial activities.

Yes we should also question the death roll in the Middle East etc. but this is a forum of people with an interest in flying so it is obvious our chatter should be around flight related subjects.

There is one factor about flying incidents in the 'we could have been there' attitude which doesn't apply to disasters across the world happening to 'other people' - this might be a poor reflection on us but it is a fact.

dukof

21st Jul 2014, 11:26

What Did US Spy Satellites See in Ukraine? (http://www.commondreams.org/view/2014/07/20-5#.U8xnvqgV-Iw.facebook)

U.S. intelligence agencies do have detailed satellite images of the likely missile battery that launched the fateful missile, but the battery appears to have been under the control of Ukrainian government troops dressed in what look like Ukrainian uniforms.CIA analysts were still not ruling out the possibility that the troops were actually eastern Ukrainian rebels in similar uniforms but the initial assessment was that the troops were Ukrainian soldiers. There also was the suggestion that the soldiers involved were undisciplined and possibly drunk, since the imagery showed what looked like beer bottles scattered around the site, the source said.

oldoberon

21st Jul 2014, 11:38

Volume,
Surely they are all of the same part, but it has been turned over in each photograph.

the three links are certainly all the same part, but they are not the same as the main image.

xcris

21st Jul 2014, 12:15

For those interested, detailed description of BUK SAM Systems and the corresponding A-A missiles.
9K37/9K37M1/9K317 Buk M1/M2 / SA-11/17 Gadfly/Grizzly / C????????? ???????? ???????? ???????? 9?37/9?317 ??? ?/?1/?2 (http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-9K37-Buk.html)

However, some discussions are misleading, assuming that a whole anti-aircraft complex has been involved in MH017 shot-down together with a complicated chain of command. In it's logic any single isolated unit (TELAR - launcher and radar) is capable of acquiring, targeting and engaging targets individually.
Individual units (erector/launcher) may be fitted with own radars, but IMO that's not mandatory for a successful launch against a big surface rectilinear-track and constant relatively low speed target. The missile carrier is equipped also with an IR seeker and an electro-optical sighting system by which means the crew may initiate a launch without radar aid - the so-called SACLOS logic (semi-automatic command to line-of-sight). By those optical means, as well, in case of radar jam the crew can track the target and up-link corrections to the missile through radio-command. On top, both SA 11/17 are equipped with onboard radars (monopulse semiactive or active - the newest type - radar homing seeker). It's not clear they are 'fire-and-forget' - capable missiles (like the ex-Soviet 'cousin' SA-19) but it's not unusual for such equipment once airborne to seek, lock-on and track a target on its own.
Adding that the shot-down occurred in daylight and good visibility is plausible that the launch was initiated in a rush, at sight, with no proper preparation and id.

jcjeant

21st Jul 2014, 12:47

A thing easy to have in hand (as they are in the ukrainian official hands) for the international investigators are the ATC records (conversations and radar records)
That's the first thing that investigators examine in a crash case ... long befrore examining the black boxes
What happend with this crash?
Not a word of those evidences !

KatSLF

21st Jul 2014, 12:59

This is REALLY, REALLY bad news. The broader context is that Ukrainian govermental forces seem to have started an offensive on Donetsk (http://en.itar-tass.com/world/741594).

They have been progressively taking back the region, bit by bit. That is why they were flying transports -- to supply their isolated pockets of regained territories. It was those transports which became separatist targets, and for which MH17 was mis-identified.

Russia cannot openly help the rebels at this point, so it may be all over fairly soon.

TC_Ukraine

21st Jul 2014, 13:00

I say again, there are no Spanish ATCO working in Ukraine. and can't be at all. theory about escorting by fighters is also stupid. Radar and voice recordings from ATC won't help for investigation. MH17 disappeared from screen during frequency change to Rostov's sector. other traffic flying behind saw nothing (both TCAS and visually).

pvmw

21st Jul 2014, 13:10

What exactly were they targeting?I think your error is to assume they were actually "targeting" anything. I'd suggest they were the same sort of untrained, undisciplined thugs who are to be seen spraying the countryside randomly with fire from their AK47s in "celebration" in third world conflicts everywhere.

New expensive toy supplied by Uncle Vlad. Minimal training, no discipline and no actual understanding of the world outside their immediate brain-washed surroundings. I doubt they were educated enough to realise that international flights take place over the little bit of disputed territory they call home. In their mind, they are fighting a "war" against a government that has aircraft. They don't have aircraft, therefore anything flying above them must be the enemy.

In the final analysis, the ultimate responsibility is with those that gave them these toys and encouraged them to use them. Unfortunately it is the way of the world that they are never held accountable.

Lonewolf_50

21st Jul 2014, 13:20

IFF was created for military usage and when civilians use it's function they do it 180 degrees opposite from the way a military would use it.

Since a military can't get the enemy to squawk an identifying code they have their 'friendly" A/C squawk a unique code.

Thus military air defense ignores all codes except the one they are looking for, and they wouldn't give a hoot if a target is squawking the same code used by airliners. Some of us used to call this doctrine "squawk or die" :eek: but the squawk in question was Mode IV.
I am sure most people can understand

Why civ airliners are not going to be equipped with Mode IV.
How an open IFF squawk can be spoofed.
This means that civ airliners flying near dangerous areas require procedural means of airspace management to avoid danger. The Malaysian flight, and the others who were flying through that airspace volume, assessed a low but not zero risk, I would guess. Well, the "not zero" risk paid off, as they say in Vegas. :{

Lord, please don't make me flash back to real world airspace volume management in real life ... some of my worst headaches came from that. :(

OleOle

21st Jul 2014, 13:24

Lots of detailed photos of the debris:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroenakkermans/sets/72157645790319631

Pace

21st Jul 2014, 13:33

PVMW

The only problem with your Dads army theory is that it takes a lot of skill and training to operate these missiles so someone with those skills had to be assisting Captain Mannering?

That does not preclude a mistaken target or overexcitement fogging the proper identification of that target with tragic results and a political self goal with damage rectification which is what appears to be happening

pace

Caygill

21st Jul 2014, 13:50

Not 2 SU-27's, but SU-25 according to Russians: Ukrainian Su-25 fighter detected in close approach to MH17 before crash - Russian military (http://rt.com/news/174412-malaysia-plane-russia-ukraine/)

A_Van

21st Jul 2014, 14:12

Briefing of the Russian MoD 2-star general and a traffic control person:

?????-??????????? ?????????????? ?????????? ?????? ?? ???????? Boeing-777 - YouTube

They do not state anything for sure, but raise some questions on some strange things happened on that day/time.

1. The activity of Ukrainian radars (including those of air defense systems) dramatically increased on that day.
2. There was a military aircraft (supposedly Su-25) flying in a close vicinity (3-5 km) of MH-17 before and shortly after the Boeing was shot.
3. MH-17 deviated its course to the north getting out of the pre-defined corridor shortly before the trouble.
4. One of the Ukrainian BUK launch complexes that were relocated to the area a few days before the tragedy, was additionally moved to a new place, very close to the line between the army and the rebels. Immediately after the tragedy it was moved back.
Etc.

Anyway, there is an English translation, those interested may listen and watch.

Nemrytter

21st Jul 2014, 14:46

3. MH-17 deviated its course to the north getting out of the pre-defined corridor shortly before the trouble.From our data in the area this appears to be true. In the last couple of minutes of the flight MH17 seems to have changed heading by about 14 degrees. FR24 agrees but with a smaller HDG change.

ULMFlyer

21st Jul 2014, 14:54

A 0.82 Mmo Frogfoot with a service ceiling of 7 km was in "close approach" to a 777 at FL330?

Sukhoi Company (JSC) - Airplanes - Military Aircraft - Su-25Ê - Aircraft performance (http://www.sukhoi.org/eng/planes/military/su25k/lth/)

TEEEJ

21st Jul 2014, 14:55

Here is Carlos back in May 2014. Perhaps someone can translate? Is he claiming to be an ATCO in the video?

PrFCqQvBzf4&feature=related

He obviously has history with the state sponsored Russia Today so perhaps his social media was an easy target for the Russian Internet Troll Army?

The following is a google translation of the video description. Is Carlos playing them along as to his job description or is it a case of a misinterpretation?

Express what one thinks about the crisis in Ukraine can even lead to an alien to be forced to flee for their lives Kiev. It is the case of a Spanish air traffic controller who was threatened by supporters of the Maidan.

Carlos, who spoke with RT on the condition of anonymity, has received threats despite not defending any interest. "I have my opinion and my view of a normal person, with a separate work [unrelated] or media, or any political party, nor to any association."

Thrust Augmentation

21st Jul 2014, 14:56

What a tragedy this is.

The media are in such a frenzy to get the latest useless nugget of convenient information / disinformation out that suits their agenda (on both sides) that they seem to be missing much.

While I'm not saying it wasn't a missile, other than US satellite information is there anything to suggest it was a missile? Surely the launch of a missile of the type which was supposedly responsible would have been noticed by someone / something other than a US satellite?

What are the hard fact's about the fighter escort?

Those apparently responsible for the launch were drunk as the supposed launch site was littered with beer cans - can a satellite differentiate between a soft drink can, an aerosol can & a beer can? If it can, how does the presence of beer cans prove that those who launched the missile were drunk?

I suspect that the Western media may have overplayed the brutality & ignorance of the locals & rebels - the story at one point on Sunday was that they were running about pissed, letting rounds off & blocking / intimidating investigators. Yet at the same time there are images of rescue workers clearing the site of bodies & attempting to bring some order - the widely shown image of the rebel(?) soldier holding up a cuddy toy has been used out of context so many times it's just sickening.....

300 people have needlessly lost their lives & the media on all sides are turning it into something like an election run-up funfair, complete with spin doctors & B.S.

DaveReidUK

21st Jul 2014, 15:10

This is an interesting article by David Cenciotti. He is a journalist with good knowledge on military aviation.

According to an authoritative source, two Su-27 Flankers escorted the Malaysian Boeing 777 minutes before it was hit by one or more missiles.He doesn't say that at all, at least not in the link that you posted. He simply quotes his source as saying that if Su-27s were monitoring/shadowing the 777 as it flew over eastern Ukraine, the Buk operators may have mistaken it for a Ukrainian AF aircraft.

He (Cenciotti) also helpfully informs us that:

the operators inside the Buk could "read" the Boeing 777′s altitude and transponder and could easily identify the civilian plane enroute from Amsterdam to Kuala LumpurReally?

A_Van

21st Jul 2014, 15:16

2 ULMFlyer

Regarding Su-25:
1. 7000 m is a "static ceiling", "dynamic ceiling" is much higher, at least 10 km is quite reachable.
2. To release an air-to-air P-60 missile there is no need to equalize the altitude with the target aircraft.

However, it looks quite unlikely that 777 could be completely destroyed by such a small missile as P-60. Unless it exploded directly in front of the cockpit making the crew inoperable instantly plus resulting in massive cabin depressurization....

threemiles

21st Jul 2014, 15:16

The picture shows SIA351, not MAS17 in close proximity to another target.
Also a flight squawking 3416 at FL400 on opposite path.
it seems the Russians are trying to argue that Ukraine fighters have hidden behind the civil airplanes.

SadPole

21st Jul 2014, 15:17

So far, it has only been played around EE, and not the West.

Russia says they have evidence that Ukraine did it and so does the US since US surveillance satellite was passing over Ukraine at that very time.

Russian Ministry of Defense Press Conference on #MH17 07/21/2014 - YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bNPInuSqfs

xcris

21st Jul 2014, 15:37

It's already said, but I put some emphasis on this:

"Service ceiling (without external ordnance and stores), km 7"

(Sukhoi's official website Sukhoi Company (JSC) - Airplanes - Military Aircraft - Su-25Ê - Aircraft performance (http://www.sukhoi.org/eng/planes/military/su25k/lth/))

With ordnance this ac is simply unable to climb further. I agree, (perhaps) it doesn't need to climb to 330 to fire a missile at a 330 target (I don't know the radar angle capabilities, but keeping in mind it's primary role is ground attack I really doubt it's able to track targets at a high angle), but for what reason the Ukrainians would have used a SU-25 for such dreadful mission and not a SU-27, a SU-24 or a MIG-29 instead?!

Lonewolf_50

21st Jul 2014, 15:59

I personally do not want to be dependent on the USA for energy any more than I do Russia. In many ways they are both as bad as each other, big bully nations with a huge sense of entitlement and have proved many times that they do not care who gets in their way. That's rich, considering who posted it, and the user name. ;) How soon we forget. England was a signatory to the guarantee of Ukraine's sovereignty when USSR/CIS broke up, remember? :}

The points you made on energy strategy and political moves in that realm are well put, and valid even today. One of the sound bytes on this side of the pond that got a lot of play was "drill baby drill" with an eye to greater reliance on domestic sources rather than foreigners ... and of course our domestic oil lobby having an eye on jobs and balance sheets. :ok: Follow the money.

How does that tie into this shoot down? I find it hard to believe that Vlad and his crew are directly involved in this event, as he doesn't need any more bad press than he already has. The narrative being suggested, that the more pro-Russian faction in Ukraine needed to establish that it owns the air volume over the territory it holds dear (SAM's are a fine air denial means) makes much more sense on a lot of levels. That faction isn't in a position to give a crap about large muscle movement energy policy, what they want is to be in a political sphere more to their liking ... which looks a bit more toward Moscow than Kiev. That's the whole point of their uprising: they don't like what's going on at the highest levels of government in Ukraine.

Lon More: Dutch tv just showing the investigators being threatened by rebel troops if they try to approach the main wreckage. Seems a bit Obvious who's trying to hide a smoking gun Yep, nothing subtle about that move.

sadPole, thank you for the post with the KLM tracks etc. Sometimes, a picture paints a thousand words.

Caygill

21st Jul 2014, 16:25

Nothing really makes sense to me here unless it was intentional or a false flag operation. If it was the rebels by mistake it will eventually come out, if it was the Ukrainian military by mistake it will probably also come out, and if it was the Russians shooting over the border it will certainly come out. I mean if it was an accident - whoever to blame - the only rational thing would be to come straight and apology! It has happen before and unfortunately it can happen again.

I don’t get it :rolleyes: Just hope a proper investigation can get started.

AirScotia

21st Jul 2014, 16:29

OleOle

21st Jul 2014, 16:32

http://www.kyivpost.com/media/images/2014/07/20/p18tam2qpf1pdvrdq155i19q11q9o4/big.jpg

from
Financial Times: The MH17 debris left untouched and ignored (http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/financial-times-the-mh17-debris-left-untouched-and-ignored-357018.html)

AirScotia

21st Jul 2014, 16:41

Black boxes to be handed over to Malaysians, according to BBC newsflash.

Edited: rt.com says:

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak says the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 black boxes will be handed over to the Malaysians in Donetsk at 9pm Ukrainian time. The bodies of 282 victims of the crash are to be flown to Amsterdam.

Prime Minister Najib Razak said an agreement had been reached with militiamen at the scene of the crash that the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 black boxes will be handed over to Malaysian authorities in Donetsk at 9pm Ukrainian time.

skridlov

21st Jul 2014, 16:49

In view of the fact that Obama has already stated that the USA has data showing the use of a SA missile to bring this aircraft down it seems perverse in the extreme not to make some of the raw data available right away, even if in limited resolution. Not doing so just helps accelerate the storm of disinformation.

In the case of a "normal" accident investigation you could say that holding back would be prudent however given the likelihood that other evidence is already compromised revealing some of the data might at least shut down some of the disinformation.

fireflybob

21st Jul 2014, 16:52

Nothing really makes sense to me here unless it was intentional or a false flag operation

Caygill, I agree with this statement.

One thing is for sure - the only aircraft flying in that area post the M17 downing are military now. So "they" know who the enemy is now.

Eclectic

21st Jul 2014, 16:56

It seems that no-one fired at MH17 - not the Kiev government, nor the pro-Russia rebels, nor Russia itself. It would therefore be in the interests of all three parties to start examining the wreckage for evidence of mechanical failure, bomb, etc. (After all, hasn't the world been on high alert recently for warnings about a plane being targeted?)

The fact that all three aren't co-operating to get investigators to the site as quickly as possible suggests to me that not one of them think it was mechanical failure or a bomb. Why are they all so sure?

If nobody shot at the T7 then how come the wreckage has shrapnel holes?

Also how come the USA IR satellite saw the missile plume. And the AWACS over Romania watched it happen?

And why were the Russian militia claiming to have shot it down on Twitter and in a phone call?

archae86

21st Jul 2014, 16:56

Lots of detailed photos of the debris:

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroen...57645790319631
While much of the damage in those photos looks to my unexpert eye like the effects of an airplane tearing itself to pieces by aerodynamic loads operating on whatever the initial damage was, at least one of the photos seems perhaps to suggest high-speed external impact.

grazing with exposed honeycomb (https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroenakkermans/14698693231/in/set-72157645790319631)

buffalox

21st Jul 2014, 17:02

According to the BBC the train with refrigerated containers has finally left and is bound for the Netherlands. Good news at last.

A_Van

21st Jul 2014, 17:09

SadPole

You wrote: "Russia says they have evidence that Ukraine did it...."

As far as I heard, there was no definite statement that the Ukrainian forces shot the plane. And this should be appreciated in contrast to many western officials who have immediately found (better say assigned) who were the bad guys.

Regarding the words that "and so does the US since US surveillance satellite was passing over Ukraine at that very time", it is not clear what was actually meant. The LEO sat, or the ones of these constellations:
Lockheed Martin-Built SBIRS GEO-2 Missile Defense Early Warning Satellite Certified for Operation · Lockheed Martin (http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/news/press-releases/2013/december/1217-ss-sbirs-geo-2.html)

GEO and HEO sats do not "pass over" any particular region. The first ones are hanging over the equator permanently, the HEO ones are over the intended region/hemisphere for some 18-20 hours a day.

xcris

I fully agree that it looks absolutely stupid to use Su-25 for any air-to-air strike if there are Su-27 and MiG-29 available (Su-24 is a bomber).
Perhaps it (Su-25) was used just to monitor how the situation was developing? In particular, to make sure the poor 777 indeed reached the ground....

liider

21st Jul 2014, 17:13

According to the BBC the train with refrigerated containers has finally left and is bound for the Netherlands. Good news at last.

To Kharkov, not to Netherlands.

ensco

21st Jul 2014, 17:15

The return of the bodies is important, and not just out of respect for the dead and the families.

Autopsies can be an enormously important part of the forensics in understanding airline crashes.

AirScotia

21st Jul 2014, 17:22

If nobody shot at the T7 then how come the wreckage has shrapnel holes?

Also how come the USA IR satellite saw the missile plume. And the AWACS over Romania watched it happen?

And why were the Russian militia claiming to have shot it down on Twitter and in a phone call?

Eclectic - I haven't seen evidence for this - do you have a link?

Yes, it seems a logical inference that the plane WAS shot down, or all parties concerned would be eager to get investigators involved.

Eclectic

21st Jul 2014, 17:29

@AirScotia

It was a Tweet.
But the assets are there: NATO to fly AWACS planes over Poland, Romania to monitor Ukraine crisis | global aviation report (http://globalaviationreport.com/2014/03/11/nato-to-fly-awacs-planes-over-poland-romania-to-monitor-ukraine-crisis/)

Edit, found this: https://twitter.com/TafkanMeh/status/489906873005801473

SadPole

21st Jul 2014, 17:30

@AirScotia

The fact that all three aren't co-operating to get investigators to the site as quickly as possible suggests to me that not one of them think it was mechanical failure or a bomb. This whole nonsense with not allowing access to the debris field appears to be complete propaganda by Obama and Kerry. OSCE clearly described what happened, and it Obama's and Kerry's interpretation is just scummy politics of Wag the Dog at its finest.

OSCE actually complained again and again that the site is open to everyone - which resulted, among other things, in hundreds of :mad: of all sorts taking thousands of pictures and posting them on the internet, many of them showing dead bodies, until web operators started removing them.

In an interview on Friday evening with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, Michael Bociurkiw, the OSCE spokesperson for the Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, said the site’s perimeters were “not secure whatsoever.” Said Bociurkiw: “It’s very easy for anyone, really, to walk in there and tamper with evidence or debris. So a lot of work needs to be done. A lot of professional work needs to be done very, very quickly.”The Crash of MH17: Where Are the Facts on the Ground? - Businessweek (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-19/the-crash-of-mh17-where-are-the-facts-on-the-ground)

I am really personally getting tired of cheap US propaganda for complete morons.

- If someone tries to guard the site - SCREAM - they are limiting access
- If they don't guard the site - SCREAM - they are allowing tampering with evidence
- If they leave the bodies laying in the fields in scorching heat - SCREAM - they are disrespecting the bodies
- If they start collecting them - SCREAM - they are disrupting evidence on the ground
etc.

It's getting very tiring. The only way to do this right would have been to send UN troops right away with all the proper equipment. And if any of the sides objected, then say who and why refused access. None of it was done. Everything else is BS for the dumb masses.

Piper1987

21st Jul 2014, 17:31

Sky news are reporting that the trains containing the bodies are en-route to Kharkiv where they will be handed over to Dutch officials before being flown to the Netherlands in a Hercules.

That's good news, seems that things are moving in the right direction just wish it hadn't taken so long.

Other reports seem to be very contradictory about the possible fighter escort provided to MH17.

Was hoping to have more facts by now instead or more speculative reporting.

SLF305

21st Jul 2014, 17:34

Regarding the words that "and so does the US since US surveillance satellite was passing over Ukraine at that very time", it is not clear what was actually meant. The LEO sat, or the ones of these constellations:
Lockheed Martin-Built SBIRS GEO-2 Missile Defense Early Warning Satellite Certified for Operation · Lockheed Martin (http://apicdn.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=1e857e7500cdd32403f752206c297a3d&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news%2F543733-mh17-down-near-donetsk-33.html&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.lockheedmartin.com%2Fus%2Fnews%2Fpress-releases%2F2013%2Fdecember%2F1217-ss-sbirs-geo-2.html&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Frumours-news-13%2F)

An irony for the Russians is that the SBIRS GEO-2 satellite was launched for the US Air Force using Russian built RD-180 engines. :ooh:

Caygill

21st Jul 2014, 17:34

Re Su-25 ceiling. In the official press conference (http://youtu.be/4bNPInuSqfs?t=13m7s) the Russian general specifically said that the SU-25 can briefly reach 10km, and the default ordanance includes the R60 air-to-air missile (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-60_(missile)).

highflyer40

21st Jul 2014, 17:43

I can't see the Americans lying about the satellite evidence of a SAM launch, as they would know that too many people would have also had the equipment in place to call them on their fabrication.

As to the who's and whys the most probable is an cock up by the seperatists thinking they were firing on a military aircraft. nothing else makes sense. too many risks so so little gain for either the Russians or the Ukraine.

xcris

21st Jul 2014, 17:47

Also how come the USA IR satellite saw the missile plume. And the AWACS over Romania watched it happen?

A Romanian news agency (Mediafax) reported on Friday July 11 that NATO will analyse the onboard data from the two AWACS deployed in Romania and Poland from the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. According to the quoted source (a NATO official) the two AWACS were on service at the time and data has been sent for analysis, but "due to the distance from the service area and the crash site we don't expect that any of the AWACSes to have records of the accident"

NATO analizeaz? datele de zbor ale avioanelor AWACS din România ?i Polonia, în tragedia din Ucraina - Mediafax (http://www.mediafax.ro/externe/nato-analizeaza-datele-de-zbor-ale-avioanelor-awacs-din-romania-si-polonia-in-tragedia-din-ucraina-12941894)

Caygill

21st Jul 2014, 17:49

Further picks from the press confrence: "..the US had an experimental satellite capable of tracking missile launches flying ower the area at that exact time. Please show the world community this information...". 23m37 of the press conference (http://youtu.be/4bNPInuSqfs?t=23m37s)

Tape ends with Russians telling that they will turn over all this material to the official investigation.

aterpster

21st Jul 2014, 18:12

con-pilot:

I agree, nothing else makes sense. I refuse to believe that Putin had a thing to do with this, my guess is that he was just as surprised as everyone else that a civilian airliner was shot down by the Ukrainian rebels.

He gave his permission, express or implied, to allow sophisticated BUK launchers to be delivered into rebel territory. Also, he surely knew about the other shoot downs in the days preceding MH17.

Machaca

21st Jul 2014, 18:44

Appears the puzzle pieces are indicating detonation proximal to port side of nose:

http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/MH17Sec41Frag1a_zps19639e06.jpg (http://s337.photobucket.com/user/motidog/media/MH17Sec41Frag1a_zps19639e06.jpg.html)

http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/MH17Sec41Frag1d_zps8462ba6d.jpg (http://s337.photobucket.com/user/motidog/media/MH17Sec41Frag1d_zps8462ba6d.jpg.html)

http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/MH17Sec41Frag2a_zpsda72b6f7.jpg (http://s337.photobucket.com/user/motidog/media/MH17Sec41Frag2a_zpsda72b6f7.jpg.html)

http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/772Sec41Puzzle1_zpse3cf4a51.jpg (http://s337.photobucket.com/user/motidog/media/772Sec41Puzzle1_zpse3cf4a51.jpg.html)

http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/MHNosePort1_zpsecf38792.jpg (http://s337.photobucket.com/user/motidog/media/MHNosePort1_zpsecf38792.jpg.html)

DespairingTraveller

21st Jul 2014, 18:49

He gave his permission, express or implied, to allow sophisticated BUK launchers to be delivered into rebel territory.
Hmm. I'd be very careful about arguing that the Head of Government of a country that supplies arms to one side or another in a conflict is personally responsible for what they are used for.

Next thing, we'll have POTUS and The Prime Minister hauled off to The Hague to stand trial for "civilian collateral damage" in <insert name of chosen conflict theatre>... People in glass houses...

Also, he surely knew about the other shoot downs in the days preceding MH17.
Shame that nugget of information, seemingly in the public domain, didn't find its way to the Ukrainian equivalent of the FAA/CAA or to Eurocontrol. Then someone might have closed the damned airspace and 298 people would going about their lawful business.

(Neither of those comments are intended to imply support for one side or the other, by the way. But using the deaths of innocents to make geopolitical hay while the sun shines doesn't exactly present an edifying spectacle, IMHO.)

OleOle

21st Jul 2014, 18:50

from Justin Bronk on twitter:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtFdZCdCIAAxSQ0.jpg

Bigger version here: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtFdZCdCIAAxSQ0.jpg:large
Was that really the vector of the missile ?

highflyer40

21st Jul 2014, 19:14

surely the nail in the coffin is the tweet by the rebels claiming to have shot down an aircraft..?

coming from the same account they have tweeted from for months, and then deleted soon after it became apparent they had messed up.

you can bet twitter has had a pretty close look at that account for any tampering and would be screaming to high heaven if they knew anything

in regards to the above "news article" alex jones could make a conspiracy out of me going to the grocery store. completely non credible

Art-Deco

21st Jul 2014, 19:17

RE: Oleole.
There´s just a catch, the damage on the right side wing doesn't match only 1 missile strike, so the question is if there was 2 Missiles..?
http://beforeitsnews.com/contributor/upload/362270/images/сбивал-не-бук-м1.jpg

And why is some holes going inwards-while other going outwards....?

toaddy

21st Jul 2014, 19:24

The countries with satellite and sensitive surveillance assets are likely hoping that explosive material residue and warhead fragmentation holes in both the plane parts and bodies will confirm an AA missile and squelch any doubts without having to cough up data that would show means and methods. The photos above seem like a good start.

The post (at 1522 GMT) by Igor Strelkovo aka Igor Girkin on the VKontake social media site after the shootdown (at 1415 GMT) bragging and taking credit for it is hard to ignore. He said it fell near Torez, near Progress mine, in an open field and that "civilians were not injured. We have video." It was posted so fast they didn't wait to confirm what was shot down. The post was changed at 1610 GMT after it was discovered to be a civilian airliner, it now basically said...'it wasn't us.' At 1656 GMT he added ... we don't have such weapons. Social media is a double edged sword these days. Luckily the internet doesn't have an erase button, once posted...it's there forever.

alex_pur85

21st Jul 2014, 19:33

Russian separatists did not think that would happen, they would shoot down other aircraft who was there to fly below the Boeing BUT slightly different route.

AreOut

21st Jul 2014, 19:50

"Was that really the vector of the missile ?"

makes sense, since the plane was allegedly moving towards the missile(at a slight angle) and BUK missile explodes as soon as it gets to the proximity of the aircraft...

WillFlyForCheese

21st Jul 2014, 20:36

by tsenis (http://www.pprune.org/members/183871-tsenis) - Post #586:

May be you can take a look:

who is vandalizing (https://vine.co/v/M2WLQjDuOhA)
who is not (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGvF8GLVKp4#t=18)

also may be take a look at seperatists leader interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AuZ1Ok3s_I&feature=youtu.be) regarding the situation on the ground and how difficult is for them to handle it, lets see their point of view before we jump into conclusions

Don't take me wrong, myself don't have any conclusions yet, I just wait for all this info-war dust to settle down. Oh please.

BBC News - MH17 air crash: Fears crash site evidence could be lost (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28396638)

Who's removing evidence from the crash site?

SLFplatine

21st Jul 2014, 20:38

The only way to do this right would have been to send UN troops right away with all the proper equipment. And if any of the sides objected, then say who and why refused access. None of it was done. Yes, well would be very nice but the small problem here is that UN troops do not exist -the UN does not maintain a readily deploy-able military force. The UN can pass a resolution to deploy international troops under its aegis that member states would contribute for the particular mission. This process takes a considerable amount of time and is therefore not a viable option here.

Joles

21st Jul 2014, 20:40

But that was not the only plane to fly A87 TAMAK SARNA that day in fact an AIR INDIA flight was 24 miles ( 90 seconds) away

Maxan_Murphy

21st Jul 2014, 20:57

tsenis

21st Jul 2014, 21:05

@WillFlyForCheese

I don't see somebody stealing evidence in this video.
If you mean the "black" box somebody has to pick it, as matter of fact I believe it is been delivered to the Malaysians as we speak.
Besides if the Dutch are satisfied then I can't complain myself. (https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10152245191727934)

May be this journalist is also tampering (https://twitter.com/mpoppel/status/491300527079444480) ?

Sunfish

21st Jul 2014, 21:06

infrequentflyer789

21st Jul 2014, 21:26

????????? ???????????? ???????? : ???????????? ??????? ?????????? ????????? (http://stat.multimedia.mil.ru/multimedia/photo/gallery.htm?id=17402@cmsPhotoGallery)

official site of russian army

on the last picture they claim it's from Krasnoarmeysk which is under ukrainian control from 11th May, I don't think they would put it on official site without checking it

the pictures before are also interesting and tend to put the blame on ukrainian army however if I got that right from my bad russian they don't have hard evidence only allegations, mainly that there was a Sukhoi fighter very near 777 and rebels might have mistaken their goal or thought Sukhoi is escorting the AN26 transport aircraft

Makes no sense (although my Russian is practically non-existent).

- the images / diagrams show a 777 with 4 engines...
- pictures show (claimed) Ukrainian ground based arms, and then a Ukrainian fighter trailing the 777, but why would Ukraine target their own fighter from ground, or why would they use a large SAM to down an a/c if they already have a fighter on the target ?
- claiming there was a Ukrainian Su that confused the rebels into shooting it down makes no sense when the Russians / rebels also claim that they didn't do it and that they only have MANPADS ?
- elsewhere they claim Ukraine shot it down thinking it was Putin's plane - as if Putin's plane is going to fly over Ukraine with a Ukrainian Su next to it ?

p2re

21st Jul 2014, 21:44

The photos published on mil.ru (http://stat.multimedia.mil.ru/multimedia/photo/gallery.htm?id=17402@cmsPhotoGallery) are the same photos that were shown on Russian MoD conference (http://www.vesti.ru/only_video.html?vid=610598) today (Russian with English translation). Key thesis they were talking about, based on ATC radar data, satellite photos and their own analysis:

MH17 had an unexplainable deviation from the air corridor just before it crashed - just before Donetsk it went 14 km north, leaving the corridor, then apparently tried to return, and then was shot down
Ukrainian army had a number of "Buk" squads present in the area whose range covered MH17 crash location
There was Su-25 climbing towards the MH17 that got closest at 3-5 km distance from the Boeing
technically the Su-25 might reach 10 km and could be equipped with air-to-air rockets

This is more-less what they said. At least items 1 and 4 should be easy to verify, others are practically unverifiable.

AirScotia

21st Jul 2014, 21:52

I can't find confirmation that the black boxes were handed over at 7pm UK time, as agreed. Anyone know anything?

WillFlyForCheese

21st Jul 2014, 22:09

@tsenis -

Did you not hear the pro-Russian militia officer say that they were taking things from passengers, putting them on a truck for sorting out later?

Did you see the pro-Russian militia dumping out backpacks and rummaging through the personal effects of passengers?

Did you see the part where the pro-Russian militia were talking about looking for memory sticks to collect - because of the data they might contain?

And you accuse a bumbling UK reporter of vandalizing the scene by going through a single suitcase?

Now - I agree that the bumbling reporter should not be touching anything at the site and has inappropriately disturbed what I would call a crime scene. But - to suggest the pro-Russian militia are doing nothing wrong is a complete joke. Are you that blinded by dogma?

AirScotia

21st Jul 2014, 22:31

From the BBC:

Ukraine rebels hand over black boxes
Breaking news
Eastern Ukraine rebels have handed over two MH17 black box flight recorders to Malaysian experts, reports say

The Old Fat One

21st Jul 2014, 22:48

For crying out loud! can people stop moaning about the flight path, it was planned and approved and flown by hundreds of flights in the week leading up to this tragedy, although the pilots deviated from the exact route they did nothing outside of SOP.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing but no room for it here.

pretty much disagree as much as it is humanly possible to do.

I come from a military aviation background, so maybe I see things differently, but in my line of business you don't fly over a SAM site which you know is operating below period.

In what universe is this hindsight? It is open air knowledge to anyone with an internet connection that there were SAMs in hands of gung-ho barely trained operators in this area. Likewise, the SAM envelopes were easily obtainable, without recourse to military intelligence.

Why do you think vulnerable civilian airliners with a duty of care to the passengers have some sort of immunity to hostile action and/or cockup/incompetence?

Takes some sort of hand-in-the-sand blinkered stupidity, to front up in hostile airspace with this you-can't touch-me I'm on an airway attitude.

We have have one thing in common though. I too hope the lawyers get stuck in...but its the aviation authorities and airline I want to see sued back to the stone age.

Complacency, driven by economic convenience IMO.

PS

And yeah, the murderous thugs that shot them down are evil beyond belief, but that's war for you...trouble is we've stopped calling it war now...that's an inconvenience as well.

AirScotia

21st Jul 2014, 22:52

http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m210/cpav11/MH17blackboxes_zpsa7c1d1d7.gif (http://s105.photobucket.com/user/cpav11/media/MH17blackboxes_zpsa7c1d1d7.gif.html)

toaddy

21st Jul 2014, 23:00

Looks like the pinger is missing from the FDR, it's still attached to the CVR.

Fornax

21st Jul 2014, 23:01

Agree with TwoOneFour regarding the "amazing" Russian press-conference.
Showing a stationary primary target after MH17 was hit/got into trouble. They really think a SU25 can hover? And why did the target show up just after MH17 was hit - where was it before? Suddenly they can track it after MH17 disappears? What about the theory it could be a big part falling off the 777 giving a primary blip? Amazing how naive the Russkies think the rest of the world is, showing this as proof. Our primary radar (for civilian ATC) can pick up large flock of birds. A big piece from an airliner would naturally give a primary echo.

Regarding the Spanish controller Carlos who supposedly knew two Ukranian planes shot down MH17 - hes another piece in the Russian media war.
Slik ble den «spanske «flygelederen Carlos» et symbol på Russlands feilslåtte propaganda - nyheter - Dagbladet.no (http://ipad.dagbladet.no/2014/07/19/nyheter/utenriks/russland/ukraina/mh17/34420973/)
His twitter account has been debunked and is now closed. Same account was used during the Euromaidan-protests.

On the other side we have experts saying the BUK would easily identify a civilian airliner and its transponder... Really? More likely a lone BUK not in link with other radar systems can only track primary targets - not distinguishing between military, civilian, flock of birds...whatever...

Which side fired the missile is another matter. But showing evidence like this is embarrasing imho.

Return 2 Stand

21st Jul 2014, 23:06

I noticed the pinger was missing too!?! Should this happen?? makes you wonder the point of the MH370 search if it might not even be attached to the FDR.

AirScotia

21st Jul 2014, 23:13

http://i105.photobucket.com/albums/m210/cpav11/MH17blackboxes2_zps49a8f902.gif (http://s105.photobucket.com/user/cpav11/media/MH17blackboxes2_zps49a8f902.gif.html)

AreOut

21st Jul 2014, 23:23

"And yeah, the murderous thugs that shot them down are evil beyond belief, but that's war for you...trouble is we've stopped calling it war now...that's an inconvenience as well."

mistakes like this happened to russian military (on several occasions), ukrainian, czech, yugoslavian and even american, some of those even during the peacetime

so we can't call them evil murderous thugs because of the shooting, however handling of the incident and not accepting responsibility is what makes them such, but we should have in mind several of aforementioned countries also didn't accept it...

AirScotia

21st Jul 2014, 23:24

Tweet from ABC's Moscow correspondent:
Kirit RadiaVerified account
‏@KiritRadia
Rebels declare 10km/6+ mile ceasfire around #MH17 crash so investigators can work on scene. Earlier today Ukraine propsed 40km/25mile radius

infrequentflyer789

21st Jul 2014, 23:27

I noticed the pinger was missing too!?! Should this happen?? makes you wonder the point of the MH370 search if it might not even be attached to the FDR.

Arguably shouldn't happen, but has done in the past.

Rob Bamber

21st Jul 2014, 23:44

It's hard getting an overall picture from all the conjecture, and, lets face it, propaganda written here. Here is an attempt at a summary of the facts and evidence we actually have so far of the crash itself:
1) MH17 crashed, apparently shot down by a SAM.
2) President Obama states the US has intelligence that it was shot down by a missile provided by Russia, but provides none of that evidence.
3) Reports state that the so-called "pro-Russian militias"* have acquired Ukrainian AA regiment(s), including up to 100 BUK missiles. This ties in with the fact that the Crimean and eastern Ukraine population is predominantly Russian-speakers, and pro-Russian, so that when seceding, any military installations in the region would most likely immediately fall into "rebel"* hands.
4) The Russian MoD has held a press conference showing evidence that
- the Ukrainian military had maximum radar activity and an AA installation in the area at the time of the crash,
- MH17 changed course just before crashing,
- there was another unidentified military aircraft in the vicinity of MH17 when it went down,
- social media pictures of an AA vehicle fleeing the area afterwards had the wrong type of armament, and was not in the city it was claimed.
The Russian MoD also asked the US to present its evidence, and stated clearly that Russia had not supplied arms to the so-called pro-Russian militias*.
5) The tail of the 777 broke off in air, and the main part of the fuselage fell with both engines still attached, and fuel tanks apparently intact.
6) Photos have been published showing damage apparently caused by shrapnel/fragmentation of AA weapon, to a part of a wing and the port side of the 777 cockpit.
7) There has been a leak that the US intelligence actually implicates the AA installation responsible was manned by Ukrainian troops, possibly lacking discipline, rather than "pro-Russian rebels"*.

* the political reality in Ukraine at the moment is complex and confused. Labels given to groups participating in the conflict tend to reflect the writers' opinions rather than the truth on the ground.

I think I have summed up all the hard evidence we can count on at the moment, though I would welcome being corrected.

AirScotia

21st Jul 2014, 23:49

Interesting read.

New Statesman | If you lived in Russia, this is what you?d believe about the crash of MH17 (http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2014/07/if-you-lived-russia-what-you-d-believe-about-crash-mh17)

infrequentflyer789

21st Jul 2014, 23:59

Would an Su25 engage in a pull up manoeuvre to allow an R60 homing missile to lock on to a higher altitude target? The Russians allege the military aircraft their radar painted began to climb just before MH17 went down.

R60 is IR - would go for an engine. Also a much much smaller warhead (than a BUK), would take out an engine, might not be fatal (much smaller civilian aircraft have survived). It _might_ take out a wing, and I think there are some witness reports of the plane falling with a wing off. However, that wouldn't account for the damage shown to cockpit fuselage panels in the photos, and I am not convinced it would account for breakup of the fuselage at altitude and bodies falling away from the main wreckage. My feeling is a BUK looks a lot more likely.

Hyperveloce

22nd Jul 2014, 00:11

Do the shrapnel/fragmentation damage to the (left) underside wing and (left) side port of the cockpit suggest that the missile was zooming up to the A/C from its left side ?

Rob Bamber

22nd Jul 2014, 00:32

This "leak" was manufactured by some 3-rd rate media outlets .... The media I trust more say the US intelligence photo show the suspect missile battery being moved across the border to Russia after firing - with one missile visibly missing. My list of evidence was gleaned from reading all the info on this thread, and trying to filter out all the conjecture, opinion and conspiracy theories. The fact I have mentioned a piece of evidence should not be construed as indicating it is true; only that it is there.

The "leak" you have referred to has been assigned to an award-winning investigative journalist. If he comes out and refutes the claims of the "3-rd rate media outlets" then of course it ceases to be evidence.

When you say "The media I trust more", please give us a link, because in this thread I have seen no media which say the US intelligence photo show the suspect missile battery being moved across the border to Russia after firing - with one missile visibly missing.

JamesT73J

22nd Jul 2014, 00:36

The missile will normally be guided to lead (rather than lag it as might happen in a pure pursuit) the target, and it was likely in the front quarter so it might be expected that the nose took the brunt of a proximity detonation. It's not easy to tell but the cockpit window skin looks sooted and very badly damaged, a bit like the 'shatter zone' mentioned in the PA103 report.

As for it falling largely intact apart from the empennage, I'm not so sure. There were some very large pieces away from the main site - a row of seats and associated cabin items landed in someone's allotment.

Whatever damage to the aircraft may be academic as if the above scenario did occur there is a good possibility the crew were incapacitated immediately.

Edit - Have those pieces from the previous page's photos been moved from where they fell? They have been burnt at the extremities, and the window frame has a pattern that I thought might be mud but it actually looks like a gas path.

con-pilot

22nd Jul 2014, 00:43

When you say "The media I trust more", please give us a link, because in this thread I have seen no media which say

the US intelligence photo show the suspect missile battery being moved across the border to Russia after firing - with one missile visibly missing.

Well in the US the media that has reported this, including vidoes is;

ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, CNN, MSNBC and Fox.

None of which is controlled by the government. Although NBC is questionable.

olasek

22nd Jul 2014, 00:44

When you say "The media I trust more", please give us a link, because For example here but you can find it really anywhere. Also listen what John Kerry said (I hope you know who he is), he mentioned what kind of intelligence US has and who this missile battery belonged too. Or what British Prime Minister Cameron said. And forget stupid journalists, specially 'award winning' (I bet some Russian journalists) who like to engage in inventing truth. If you don't smell an obvious fabrication when somebody claims there are photos with missile launcher and beer bottles - I can only feel sorry.

U.S. Points to Russian Missile Connection in Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 Crash - WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-intel-points-to-russian-rebel-missile-connection-in-malaysia-airlines-flight-17-crash-1405816389)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2699170/Is-BUK-missile-launcher-shot-MH17-smuggled-Russia-Motorist-captures-military-truck-carrying-BUK-M1-border-town.html

Flash2001

22nd Jul 2014, 01:11

I have heard that the missile in question has an expanding rod warhead. Would this not leave a very readable signature on the target (Linear perforation) and some easily identified pieces on the ground?

Thrust Augmentation

22nd Jul 2014, 01:21

I have read that it doesn't have an expanding rod warhead, but there is one piece of wreckage that does seem to show signs of being ripped through by something. Although that being said, it could have been damaged by other debris, cabling or the likes.

HERE (http://www.standard.co.uk/incoming/article9616569.ece/alternates/w620/MH17crashsite.jpg)

toaddy

22nd Jul 2014, 01:34

I believe I read this was an older warhead, a fragmentation type instead of the expanding rod type.

I've been wondering if/how a fragmentation missile would cause a plane, as big as a T7, to come apart in the air. From what I've read the 154 pound warhead fragments and bits go everywhere at crazy speeds so it cuts through whatever it hits. I read somewhere that the proximity fuse activates at around 100 meters (or it might have been yards). The impacts in the parts look like golf ball size and smaller, are there also some larger bits of frag that could chop off whole sections of a T7?

I can easily see how it will bring down the plane, cutting hydraulics, killing the pilots, destroying components, etc. But what actually causes the entire tail to separate at altitude? Is it from aerodynamic forces when/if the plane changes orientation with respect to the 500 plus mph slipstream. Is the concussive blast sufficient to move the plane, lop off the tail, etc. ? Or is it just the fragmentation that does the damage ? I have some understanding and experience with radar and tracking systems but no experience with explosives. I'm just curious. I suppose it's morbidly curious but the engineer in me would like to know. thanks.

porterhouse

22nd Jul 2014, 01:54

, cutting hydraulics, killing the pilots, destroying components,I hope by "components" you also mean such vital pieces of fuselage/wing construction as spars or ribs - they carry all the loads - you can only sufficiently weaken some of them in few places and aerodynamic forces plus 'zipper' effect will do the rest and the whole thing will unravel in midair.

JamesT73J

22nd Jul 2014, 02:03

It's easy to forget the speeds modern air transports fly at. Once structural integrity goes physics will do the rest.

The missile does not even have to 'destroy' the plane, a loss of control is enough to Overstress it.

barit1

22nd Jul 2014, 02:15

The expanding-rod warhead (like a wristwatch band) is hardly a "new" design. As a student engineer I worked at Bendix Missile Systems and became familiar with the SAM-N-6 RIM-8 Talos - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talos_missile) design. Its expanding-rod warhead dated to at least the mid-50s.

lomapaseo

22nd Jul 2014, 02:26

But what actually causes the entire tail to separate at altitude? Is it from aerodynamic forces when/if the plane changes orientation with respect to the 500 plus mph slipstream.

PA103 broke the tail off due to aerodynamic forces following the loss of the nose.

These forces were in a pitch down mode and also acted on the engine fans as well

Somewhat academic if the DFDR doesn't show anything.

papapapahotel

22nd Jul 2014, 02:36

Olasek, Thanks for links to pictures by Daily Mail and other. Re denial of location of truck carrying SAM vehicle on road as being from another area, car dealership sign, etc. (Picture 8). It would be easy to identify the location of picture 6, which is in the middle of a town with shop sign, and which shows the same truck (White cabin with blue stripe and yellow side cover behind cabin).
If the publisher of both photos has not come forwards, it is probably because it would be inconvenient for him/his organization to do so.

HappyAs

22nd Jul 2014, 02:59

My guess is the reason the separatists and their "supporters" have agreed to hand over the black boxes is because the information contained in them will support what everybody already knows; that MH17 was shot down by a surface to air missile. What the investigators really need is access to the remains of the aircraft.

hamster3null

22nd Jul 2014, 03:41

My guess is the reason the separatists and their "supporters" have agreed to hand over the black boxes is because the information contained in them will support what everybody already knows; that MH17 was shot down by a BUK surface to air missile.

It will not support even that. It will support that MH17 was shot down by a missile. Black boxes won't tell you if it's SA-11 (Buk), SA-20, S-300, or even air-to-air R73.

wdew

22nd Jul 2014, 03:52

Then the blast should have been starboard side. Those pilots were likely killed in the blast looking at the cockpit shrapnel marks. RIP

WillFlyForCheese

22nd Jul 2014, 03:53

Well - looking at what appears to be shrapnel holes where shrapnel pierced the hull of the aircraft near the cockpit - prayers go out to the pilots, crew, and passengers on board.

Pure speculation - but that shrapnel likely ripped through everything and everyone in the cockpit and sealed the fate of MH17. Shrapnel also likely ripped through at least the forward passenger cabin.

Not hard to picture what happened next.

Accident or intentional act - what happened to that plane and it's passengers is a tradgedy. Holes of Swiss cheese lining up? Doesn't matter here.

Can't imagine the milliseconds that preceded the break up of the aircraft and the chaos.

God rest their souls.

Load Toad

22nd Jul 2014, 04:02

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/21/world/europe/wreckage-offers-clues-on-why-flight-17-went-down.html

Mozella

22nd Jul 2014, 04:29

It is unlikely (but not impossible) that MH17 was shot down using a R60 IR guided missile. Here's why I think so.

There is a great deal of misunderstanding about how missiles work, especially in the media. Arguing that such a missile "would go for an engine" and that the cockpit damage we see with MH17 would eliminate an R60 as a possibility makes some false assumptions.

Guiding a weapon using a signature radiated by the target itself is a weapon designers dream come true. "Heat seekers" take clever advantage of a byproduct of jet engines, namely IR radiation. Some IR guided missiles have been designed to home on the IR signature the hot metal of a jet engine; others home on the hot exhaust plume. Most missiles of this type have a contact fuse, but actual contact with the target is more a matter of luck than anything else. And while it is true that IR missiles have been known to fly right up the tail pipe, this event is very rare. Near misses are the norm and that's why all missiles of this type have proximity fuses, usually optical or radio proximity types. The R60 can be configured with either type of fuse. A successful R60 intercept could result in damage anywhere on the airframe, including the cockpit.

The R60 can certainly bring down a 777, but success is far from guaranteed. The small 3kg expanding warhead can cause only so much damage, but sometimes small damage is sufficient. Airliners, when intact, are quite strong. But once the integrity of the airframe is compromised an airliner operating at around Mach 0.8, can break apart very quickly from aerodynamic forces.

So was it an R60? The photos I've seen of the skin of MH17 showing wide-spread and severe damage suggest that the aircraft was downed by a large blast/fragmentation warhead like the one found on the SA-11, not the much smaller expanding rod warhead associated with the R60.
The R60 has a practical range of around 4km and a very limited head-on capability. That means it's likely an R60 attack would be visual from the rear quarter. Any fighter pilot worth his salt could certainly recognize a 777 at 4km range and not confuse it with a military aircraft, especially a twin engine turboprop. By the way, a 777 has a huge IR signature from the engines, especially from behind and below. An IR missile would not prefer a heated pitot tube.

I understand that the SA-11 can be deployed from a sophisticated multi vehicle system including several types of radar and a command and control protocol which should minimize accidentally misidentifying and shooting down an airliner. This is what you would expect if the SA-11 system were operated by a fully operational army defense system. But it appears that the missile can also be fired by minimally trained solders from one vehicle using just the guidance radar after observing nothing more revealing than a "blip" on their screen. Given a trigger happy crew without any real idea of what they're shooting at, makes a mistake like this one much more likely to be caused by a ground based missile crew as opposed to a more highly trained fighter pilot who can see his target with his eyeballs.

When I was a kid flying combat missions over North Viet Nam I watched many of my fellow pilots as they were downed by SA-2 missiles. The fragments of the 777 which fell to earth are not inconsistent with the fragments produced when a SA-2 makes a successful intercept.

In summary, the bulk of the evidence points to a SAM, as far as I'm concerned, but unlike some, I'm not sure just exactly who did the shooting.

Mark in CA

22nd Jul 2014, 05:31

Some info about the "unusual" kind of insurance policy Malaysia Airlines has:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/22/business/air-insurers-worry-after-malaysia-airlines-latest-crash.html?ref=business

mickjoebill

22nd Jul 2014, 05:57

Reported by Reuters on Friday 18th of July
Sergei Kavtaradze, told Reuters by telephone: "Today 17 new workers and four official experts from Kiev arrived in Donetsk. Soon they are due to arrive at the site of the tragedy. We support the maximum number of experts possible."

A spokesman for the OSCE in Geneva said about 30 of its observers and experts were already at the scene and a "contact group" of diplomats from the OSCE, Russia and Ukraine had met and spoken with separatist leaders by video link earlier.

A single warning shot fired in the air, to keep the party on the road and not shots fired at OSCE members as reported.
Rebel's commender fires a warning shot when 2 #OSCE members leaved the road to inspect #MH17 part in a field. Mission left back to #donetsk

Monday 21st July
The Dutch expert Mr Van Vliet told reporters at the station: “I have inspected the train and the wagons and the quality of the storage is good … acceptable.”

So..
Three days to gather bodies over a 25 square kilometre area, in the middle of a war zone by a population that is one of the most literate, yet poorest in Europe.

The black boxes were handed over once the Malaysian investigators arrived as promised the day that the boxes were found by separatist leader Alexander Borodai.

The bodies left a day after the search was finished and as promised, to a destination under control of the Dutch.
The separatists were reported as saying they would not send them to Keiv, so a delay, if any, could be attributed to figuring out the logistics of separatist controlled train meeting a Dutch plane in a safe location.

The journalists first on the scene were allowed access as they were already accredited with paper passes because they had been reporting on the conflict.

It is understandable and reasonable (in context), that a relatively small military force would initially seek to protect itself from evidence being tampered with by the enemy and so restrict access to outsiders.

“You can walk around the crash scene, there’s nobody stopping you,” Fairfax Media's chief correspondent, Paul McGeough, said. “Once you have one of these Mickey Mouse press passes that the rebel government - so called rebel government - will issue you with … you’re pretty well free to go where you want to go.
“At the railway station … where the train [holding the bodies of victims] is sitting at the platform, as I approached the platform a guy came at me with a gun ordering me to back off. I showed him my press pass, he smiled and said ‘come on in'.”

Looting of valuables seems to have taken place, a ghastly aberration of human behaviour that is not uncommon, four were arrested in Lockerbie and over forty took souvenirs of the Space Shuttle crash.

If the separatists wanted to hide tampering or nefarious activity they could have simply asked the media to leave.

In the absence of investigators the wreckage was disturbed to remove bodies, this is called tampering with evidence by western politicians.

"Grotesque violations" at the crash site according to the Oz foreign ministers address to the UN, but the balance of evidence suggests it is the circumstance of where the crash occurred that has had the most impact on a lack of an efficient sterile, clinical western cleanup, with the media kept at arms length.

The irony is that a full-on western response with victim mapping ect, would have delayed the removal of victims, as experienced at Lockerbie and other disasters.
The boy lay at the bottom of my stairs for days. Every time I came back to my house for clothes he was still there. 'My boy is still there,' I used to tell the waiting policeman. Eventually on Saturday I couldn't take it no more. 'You got to get my boy lifted,' I told the policeman. That night he was moved."
Pan Am Flight 103 - Metapedia (http://en.metapedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_Flight_103)

“After the crime, comes the cover-up,” Mr Abbott said. “What we have seen is evidence tampering on an industrial scale — and that has to stop.”

So an industrial scale criminal cover-up, in front of scores of cameramen and photographers?…PM Abbott's past poor accuracy on filtering fact from fiction about such matters is on record..
“We are confident that we know the position of the black box flight recorder to within about a kilometre…"
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 black box in an area 10km by 10km | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-black-box-in-an-area-10km-by-10km/story-fnizu68q-1226880483186)

Looters and the industrial scale criminal behaviour aside, hats off to the ill-equipped and trained local police, miners, fireman and villagers for locating, marking and moving the victims, they deserve our respect,

as Dutch Forensics expert Peter Van Vliet said:
"I think they did a hell of a job in a hell of a place".
BBC News - Dutch forensic team 'impressed' by work at MH17 crash site (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28405448)

The question is whodunnit and why?

OleOle

22nd Jul 2014, 06:59

Satellite imagery of the debris field:

DigitalGlobe's Before and After Satellite Images of MH17 Crash Site | On Space (http://aviationweek.com/blog/update-digitalglobes-and-after-images-mh17-crash-site)

Volume

22nd Jul 2014, 07:09

aterpster

22nd Jul 2014, 07:19

funfly

22nd Jul 2014, 07:24

Despite the rhetoric, I have the distinct impression that whoever was in charge of the area at the time most likely did a good job - the area was kept secure and within a very short space of time, considering the environment, a refrigerated train was located and moved into place. Bodies were collected, bagged and placed in the container. The black box was located and kept secure.

The men involved were not from a highly trained established army but a rebel group with political motivation. They seem to have done pretty well in the circumstances.

Skyjob

22nd Jul 2014, 07:50

What I gather from reading many sources by now is that an individual BUK missile launcher's radar will not display civil aircraft transponder codes on a stand-alone basis. In order to display such codes the individual launch vehicle would have to be tied into either the ATC system's radar or a central military radar with ATC secondary radar capabilities.

Any person can acquire and use a secondary transponder receiver, freely available over the internet to purchase. It would be a standalone unit, and not integrated with warfare equipment, but available, yes. Would they use such equipment? Would make sense, but doubtful.

A_Van

22nd Jul 2014, 07:50

2 Funfly

Yes, I had the same feeling that the locals had done a good job. Note, that most of the people involved were not armed rebels (those were rather commanding) but ordinary farmers, retired miners and similar folks just living around in small villages. Blaming them that the bodies were not carried with due dignity and that they were picking up and looking at some personal items sounds too demanding.

Volume

22nd Jul 2014, 08:02

there is one piece of wreckage that does seem to show signs of being ripped through by somethingThis piece is the center section of the horizontal stabilizer box, made from brittle carbon fibre material. It has most probybly been destroyed by impact forces. This looks like the typical failure mode for carbon fibre material. The item is (reasonably) protected inside the fuselage tail cone, and not very likely to be damaged by a missile.

phazey

22nd Jul 2014, 08:04

Looking at the picture on the ground, could it be cellophane wrap - the kind they use to wrap pallets ?

CAT1

22nd Jul 2014, 08:18

On the rare occasions I still look at this site, I'm always immediately reminded why my visits are so rare. Any time anything happens in aviation, all the conspiracy theorists, armchair experts and the odd person who just wants to say something different, whatever it is, all come out of the woodwork and turn any semblance of informed and rational discussion into a free-for-all of ill-informed and ill-considered conjecture.

To the poster who thinks the rebels have done a good job in securing the crash-site, well done sir! You evidently think leaving the bodies of victims of a major disaster lying in the sun for three days is perfectly acceptable. Not to mention tampering with evidence, looting and threatening journalists and investigators. Great job.

Then we have the chap who thinks the cockpit was "ground zero". I guess we're always going to have a few of them. It's just purely coincidental that a rebel leader is saying they've shot down a civilian aircraft. Maybe they mistakenly though they'd fired a missile, none of them could actually remember how many they had in the first place. And then we have the experts, who conveniently ignore all the evidence because they know better. I mean, taped conversations admitting to shooting down an aircraft, a BUK missile launcher driving back to Russia, a trace of a missile launch, they are all just circumstantial evidence, which doesn't prove anything.

Why is the idea that the plane was shot down by mistake by a bunch of nationalist thugs, and that someone had seriously miscalculated in providing them with sophisticated weapons, so hard to accept?

I'm surprised no one has yet suggested the wreckage in Ukraine is actually MH370. But maybe I shouldn't be putting ideas in anyone's heads.

OleOle

22nd Jul 2014, 08:19

It definitely is larger than toilet paper, but I have no idea what it is.

The cargo manifest lists 2 x 72.6 kg of textiles - maybe rolls of fabric?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-19/full-passenger-and-cargo-manifest-flight-mh-17

Mark in CA

22nd Jul 2014, 08:20

Interesting look at the public relations battle going on, and how Russia's control over their media influences people's perceptions there.

As the crisis surrounding the plane crash deepens and as calls for Vladimir Putin to act grow louder, it’s worth noting that they’re not really getting through to Putin’s subjects. The picture of the catastrophe that the Russian people are seeing on their television screens is very different from that on screens in much of the rest of the world, and the discrepancy does not bode well for a sane resolution to this stand-off.

The Russian Public Has a Totally Different Understanding of What Happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 17

Russia Conspiracy Theories Trap Putin Malaysia Airlines MH17 | New Republic (http://www.newrepublic.com/node/118782)

DaveReidUK

22nd Jul 2014, 08:33

I'm surprised no one has yet suggested the wreckage in Ukraine is actually MH370. But maybe I shouldn't be putting ideas in anyone's heads.Too late. They already have:

??????, ???????? ????????????? ??????? ? ? ??? ???????????? ??????????????? / news2.ru (http://news2.ru/story/416696/) (original)

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http://news2.ru/story/416696/&edit-text=&act=url (Google translation)

G0ULI

22nd Jul 2014, 10:01

CAT1
Your comments regarding the bodies being left in situ are unwarranted. The deceased crew of the US helicopter that crashed in Norfolk, UK were also left in situ for three days, although covered, while the site was rendered safe and investigations and coroners requests were carried out.

The MH17 crash site should be treated as a crime scene until whatever happened has been established. This scene is in the middle of a war zone with limited resources available to conduct any form of investigation, let alone preserve every minute detail at the scene. So leaving stuff in situ as long as possible is probably the best that can be hoped for in the circumstances.

All things considered, access to the wreckage site has been remarkably open to reporters and investigators. It is unreasonable to expect Western European or US standards of scene preservation and analysis, but since it is pretty obvious what happened (in a gross sense) the minutea really doesn't matter that much.

The investigators and local population are doing their best in what are very unpleasant, unstable and difficult circumstances and are to all be commended for their actions.

Caygill

22nd Jul 2014, 10:10

Sorry but what is staying on topic?

Pace, IMHO that is avoiding broading the topic to geopolitics, ethnity, etc. Once we know what has actually happened, we might debate contributing factors, but not the other way around.

I'm not rying to moderate this board, but I recon that we are touching areas sensitive to many ppruners, and those areas are not really the primary cause of this tragedy.

Stanley11

22nd Jul 2014, 10:29

cellophane wrap

If you're referring to the long strips during the initial crash, cellophane wrap is so difficult to unroll. It would be very unlikely that it unraveled itself during the fall.

Apologies if you're referring to another issue.

mustrum_ridcully

22nd Jul 2014, 10:47

Italian newpaper (Corriere Della Sera) is running a story where Russian separatists supposedly admit to them shooting down MH17 thinking that it was a military plane.

«Così è stato colpito l’aereo» - Corriere.it (http://www.corriere.it/esteri/14_luglio_22/cosi-stato-colpito-l-aereo-0a7e5f9e-115f-11e4-affb-3320a03d21e8.shtml)

PerAsperaAdAstra

22nd Jul 2014, 11:10

I find it curious some people are so bent out of shape of the handling by the seperatists of the wreckage/bodies, terrible as it is and certainly should not be excused or go uncriticised, but get real, this is a very poor, pretty unloved part of the world, not exactly known for it's universities and Nobel lauriets..... If this had happened in some African countries, it would make this emergency response look very professional.

Fitter2

22nd Jul 2014, 11:14

Some people seem to be giving credit to the separatists for 'handing over' the flight recorders.

Have they considered that they were vital evidence in a criminal investigation, removed from a crime scene.

TV reporters have plenty of photograhs of heavy equipment moving sections of the airframe before crash investigators have arrived. Early shots show collections of passports - what else of the passengers poossessions have been collected of looted.

The behaviour is all consistent with unacceptable interference by the local 'militias' whoever is directing them.

Pace

22nd Jul 2014, 11:25

The problem with the black boxes is that firstly they are not going to contain anything which will add to the facts we already know which is that the aircraft was shot down by a missile.

Secondly the black boxes themselves are now suspect.
Where have they been since removed? As one aviation Authority stated it is not out of the realms of reality to remove data which was unwanted and return the black boxes as in original state.

So in reality an empty public relations exercise in this situation

I also find it amazing how the emphasis is now changing in these threads to what a great bunch these people are who shot down a civilian aircraft.

I strongly suspect it was an accidental target which has turned around in a very negative way against the rebels if in fact it was the rebels who shot it down and not a direct import from Russia with 6 Russian trained troops operating it and now hastily removed.
i have visited that region. yes the majority are poor and most are decent people who will have been horrified by the accidental loss of innocent lives so I would be surprised if the majority of even rebel troops are not gutted by this mistake

ensco

22nd Jul 2014, 11:26

The handing over of the black boxes is not a big deal. Autopsies are likely to be more informative.

SloppyJoe

22nd Jul 2014, 11:32

Did it ever occur to you that maybe they were moving large pieces of wreckage to get to the decomposing body/parts of a person. What would you prefer, leave them under it rotting or move a piece of wreckage that has fallen 33,000ft to its random resting place. Did they lift it and take it away? You don't know and neither do I as it was only reported that they were moving wreckage and disturbing the evidence. I expect they lifted it, removed the body and then put it back.

I honestly think it is quite disgraceful how this is sometimes being reported and it is obviously having the desired effect on the people who just soak it up without ever contemplating why.

PerAsperaAdAstra

22nd Jul 2014, 11:34

"As one aviation Authority stated it is not out of the realms of reality to remove data which was unwanted and return the black boxes as in original state."

You must be kidding! Everyone has been apalled at the poor and unprofessional handling of the site, then some "expert" thinks these cats might decide to put down their vodka bottles and carry out a highly technical removal of data from an FDR returning it to it's original state....now that is "armchair expertise"!

oldoberon

22nd Jul 2014, 11:34

This picture (https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroenakkermans/14698656261/in/set-72157645790319631/) (from the collection posted before) seems to show the "toilet paper" discussed before as seen falling from the sky in the video. It definitely is larger than toilet paper, but I have no idea what it is.

thank you, been waiting to see a photo of it, certainly doesn't look like a new form of chaff (as suggest a few pages back).

Often in the galley area you see rolls of blue or white kimwipe paper could it be that. It fell vertically (not fluttering around) suggesting the inner roll support was glued to the paper. It was all close together in the fall suggesting a common location in the aircraft (main galley?)

Severe Clear

22nd Jul 2014, 11:45

From WAPO

"In the agonizing quest to pin down exactly what happened when Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 went down over Ukraine last week, Web archivists and other digital sleuths are playing an unusual potentially pivotal role"

How Web archivists and other digital sleuths are unraveling the mystery of MH17 - The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2014/07/21/how-web-archivists-and-other-digital-sleuths-are-unraveling-the-mystery-of-mh17/)

oldoberon

22nd Jul 2014, 11:56

Re moving the bodies, provided the markers sticks have a ref number which is repeated on the body bag, it will be possible to see which part of the aircraft they were seated in.

Any tampering with bodies, like removing shrapnel will be evident at autopsy.

Re who did it, I think if the rebels knew it was the Ukraine forces they would have had a secure cordon in place immediately, nothing would have been touch and the experts would have been allowed and escorted for safety ASAP. They are not stupid and would not have wasted such an good propaganda opportunity.

Yes we saw collections of passports and bank cards etc but how do we know at this stage they won't be handed over to the investigation team, after all they have been witnessed with them and didn't confiscate the film.

Personally I believe it was a rebel c*ck up, but now their initial panic is over are they likely to make their position worse by holding on to these items, after all the pax list is known so it is easy to get the passports and cards cancelled.

SLFplatine

22nd Jul 2014, 11:56

Posted by Pace
Secondly the black boxes themselves are now suspect.
Where have they been since removed? As one aviation Authority stated it is not out of the realms of reality to remove data which was unwanted and return the black boxes as in original state.Posted by PerAsperaAdAstra
You must be kidding! Everyone has been apalled at the poor and unprofessional handling of the site, then some "expert" thinks these cats might decide to put down their vodka bottles and carry out a highly technical removal of data from an FDR returning it to it's original state....now that is "armchair expertise"! Hardly think that was the suggestion. If one thinks about it just a little bit one might consider that the expertise to conduct a highly technical removal of data from an FDR could be resident in Moscow (or elsewhere in Russia) No?

Severe Clear

22nd Jul 2014, 12:16

Malaysia plane crashes in Ukraine - The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/malaysia-plane-crashes-in-ukraine/2014/07/17/ff0f1708-0dd4-11e4-b8e5-d0de80767fc2_gallery.html#item0)

SLFplatine

22nd Jul 2014, 12:35

From the NY Times online this AM:
The wreckage, photographed by two reporters for The New York Times in a field several miles from where the largest concentration of the Boeing’s debris settled, suggests that the destruction of the aircraft was caused by a supersonic missile that apparently exploded near the jet as it flew 33,000 feet above the ground, according to an analysis of the photographs by IHS Jane’s, the defense consultancy.article link:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/22/world/europe/jet-wreckage-bears-signs-of-impact-by-supersonic-missile-analysis-shows.html?_r=0

photo
http://static01.nyt.com/images/2014/07/22/world/MISSILE01/MISSILE01-master675.jpg

igs942

22nd Jul 2014, 13:11

Quick question for the experts (of which I am not).

Anyone know if it is possible to ascertain whether a CVR/FDR has already been opened/analysed? I know these units are sealed to protect them from excessive trauma/heat/water ingress so would the seal effectively be broken if data had already been accessed?

infrequentflyer789

22nd Jul 2014, 13:20

one might consider that the expertise to conduct a highly technical removal of data from an FDR could be resident in Moscow (or elsewhere in Russia) No?

Isn't it far more likely that expert advice from Russia was either:

a) how to wipe the data entirely (then can blame MH pilot for turning stuff off, with handy recent example of MH370).

or (even more likely)

b) that the data will tell no one anything about _who_ fired whatever took the plane down, so just hand the things over and make yourselves look good for once.

givemewings

22nd Jul 2014, 13:33

I think we're confusing food grade cellophane wrap and freight/cargo wrap. That's what it looks like to me. Seems too big to be anything from the galley...

Did anyone stop to think perhaps the passports were collected by locals with no knowledge other than that some of the wreck was burning and they wanted to preserve them for the authorities to help with confirming identities?

Not everything must have an evil motive, it could be plain ignorance of crime scene protocol. As mentioned, many of the volunteers were miners and farmers from local towns.

As for tampering with the recorders- there is a photo of a guy carrying it. You really think they're going to try do something to them with the media knowing, recording and having them down as the first people to touch it?

OleOle

22nd Jul 2014, 13:38

Minutes before the crash caused by a missile strike, the AI pilots had also heard the controller give the Malaysian aircraft MH17 what is called "a direct routing".

Air India flight was 90 seconds away when missile struck Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 - TOI Mobile | The Times of India Mobile Site (http://m.timesofindia.com/india/Air-India-flight-was-90-seconds-away-when-missile-struck-Malaysia-Airlines-Flight-MH17/articleshow/38702536.cms)

A_Van

22nd Jul 2014, 13:48

Was surprised to read such an article written by a US person:

What Did US Spy Satellites See in Ukraine? | Consortiumnews (http://consortiumnews.com/2014/07/20/what-did-us-spy-satellites-see-in-ukraine/)

Looks like this guy was investigating the Iran-Contra case, wasn't he? Or just a peanut gallery?

Ronald Reagan

22nd Jul 2014, 13:54

Perverted truth: How rebel mourning MH17 victims was turned into looter with trophy
http://rt.com/news/174332-ukraine-plane-photo-perverted/

Andy_S

22nd Jul 2014, 14:12

Perverted truth

Very apt words for a link to an RT story......

ZeBedie

22nd Jul 2014, 14:18

Is there any chance that a Ukrainian military transport would be heading East into Russia, as MH17 was? Is the Ukrainian government on good enough terms with Moscow for that to be possible?

Volume

22nd Jul 2014, 14:19

I don´t know whether we have somebody with more detailed knowledge at hand... but that piece of fuselage shell must be from the crown area of the cockpit. It is painted white, so according to the MH colour scheme it must be from the upper half of the fuselage (the lower is grey). There are no continuous stringers, so it must be from a quite far forward location. That would imply, the rocket actually exploded above and ahead of the aircraft, while all graphics shown so far seem to show an explosion in line of the approach from below (probably making use of the momentum the warhead already has approaching at supersonic speed).

Mora34

22nd Jul 2014, 14:29

Very apt words for a link to an RT story......

Did you even bother to read what it said. Anyone with half a brain could draw the same conclusion from the video.

SAMPUBLIUS

22nd Jul 2014, 14:46

22nd Jul 2014, 01:18 CAT1 said

I'm surprised no one has yet suggested the wreckage in Ukraine is actually MH370. But maybe I shouldn't be putting ideas in anyone's heads

Russian news media has already done that !:mad:

KatSLF

22nd Jul 2014, 14:49

The locals (civilian and otherwise) made all the right moves here (the initial shot aside, if it was them). They quietly found and picked up the bodies, collected most possessions, found the black boxes...

AND GAVE THEM TO THE RIGHT PEOPLE -- the recorders to the airline which owned them, the bodies to the country which lost the most. Not to middlemen (Russia, Kiev, whatever supposedly neutral international investigators were coming). What does USA have to do with this? did they even have a single soul on board?

They also videoed most of what they're doing, so if people would just stop editing them , they'd tell the truth of what went on. They did the work while everyone else is still just screaming invective at each other.

The Mayalsians, if they have any sense, will ask for blackbox help from Australia, who they already have arrangements with because of MH370, and not let the US get their hands on them either.

SadPole

22nd Jul 2014, 14:51

@ZeBedie

Is there any chance that a Ukrainian military transport would be heading East into Russia, as MH17 was? Is the Ukrainian government on good enough terms with Moscow for that to be possible? The strategy of Kiev gov was to surround the rebel cities and cut them of from supposed logistical support from Russia. The only way they could supply their troops was by air. See map: blue and yellow (flag of Ukraine) is the area controlled by Kiev gov. Clearly they were fighting the situtation where their yellow area of advancement on the Russian border was facing the danger of being surrounded.

http://euromaidanpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ATO.jpg

Similarly, the Kiev troops had a reason to activate their SAMs because they made a claim that it is Russian jets that are shooting down their transports, and not rebel SAMs.

Russian jets shoot down Ukrainian warplane over Ukraine: Kiev military (http://news.yahoo.com/russian-jet-shoots-down-ukrainian-warplane-over-ukraine-101707138.html)

Clearly, both sides had reasons to use SAMs in that mess.