I've said more than enough in my previous post but maybe I should have added : if the Long Haul DEP slots don't materialise please don't blame the individuals on the recruiting team - those I know, right from the ex "boss" down, are very straight and forthright individuals and they will have been acting in good faith on information they had available to them at the time.

They may have been overtaken by events (including a new CEO) and the new business plan.

Ea300 my sim was early April.

Latest forecast which does not take account of aspirational part time bids is LHR and LGW A320 DEP for 2017. LH looks like it has enough bids to supply from internal applications. Most junior is 3500 for P2 777 and 3000 for P2 787 so that is about 5-6 years service. There are no forecast commands on A320 other than gatwick but that's bounced to normal levels of around 2300. Joining SH with a view of a quick command is probably going to disappoint. The LH P2 seniority levels would suggest it goes down to unfrozen levels so that could mean there could be DEP onto LH due to frozen bids. It's worth noting however unlike the A320 which was tagged as DEP the LH fleets just have a seniority number along side. It's not a clear cut answer but that's as much info as anyone has and should help people decide. My two pence, if I were swimming and got offered SH I would not be so bold as to turn it down to wait for LH.

Does anyone know rumours of recruitment opening again?

Allowed time in the hold pool has been extended to 18 months. Only 1 long haul aircraft being delivered next year not seen any mention of any short haul hulls.

Put those all toether and I guess the recruitment website will be quiet for a little while to come.

But then again that was yesterday's plan.

Even without new hulls it shouldn't be complete gloom and doom - as has been mentioned there's the issue of demand for Part Time working contracts, which if granted in significant numbers could produce some demand for new entrants, there's also the fact that retirements will start to pick up as people reach 65...

It's hard to see at the moment what will happen and whether there will be enough demand to trigger a call for LH DEPs in 2017 but as bex88 has said: " if I were swimming and got offered SH I would not be so bold as to turn it down to wait for LH."

I'm swimming having applied via the LH route. I've let BA know I'd accept a SH offer however judging by the email I received the other day and the fact pool duration is now 18 months, I have it in my head that I won't receive any offer (the email said no LH offers in 2017, and the 'majority' of SH offers would go to type rated guys- which I am not) until this time next year at the earliest.

Apparently there has been a significant reduction of about 12% of flying for next year, with some non profitable routes being canned, Chengdu was the first victim, more to come it would seem.

IAG lowers plans for capacity growth, fleet investment & profit, but keeps return on capital target

Food for thought.

70% of swimmers are non-type rated apparently. Keep up those hopes!

Don't know if you meant it like that Bex but as a pure guide of time to LH that's incorrect as of this moment. Seniority of around 3150 has been in the company four and a half years, I know that as I know a couple of people in that bracket personally. This month there are a few people leaving/having left the A320 fleet to go Long Haul with seniority of greater than 3400, 250 places junior to my friends, which makes their time in the company a little over four years (if that).

If you're not after a specific fleet then that's a possible indication of time to LH going forward, especially given the points Wiggy has made (retirements picking up), with the usual health warnings about the clarity of the crystal ball. Of course Bex if you're specifically referring to the Yammer post about the seniority required for internal transfer to the 787 fleet in 2017 then you're more or less right, although I'd edge closer to 5 years.

My advice? Take Short Haul if it's offered. If you really want to spend the rest of your career in BA it's an absolute no brainer. Waiting another 18 months will make a huge difference to your career in this airline, it's just one giant seniority machine and anyone joining would be best advised to get their name on the Master Seniority List at the earliest opportunity regardless of the fleet.

Of course you have the additional prospect of another black swan event making any recruitment in 2018 vanish and you will be kicking yourself forever if that is the case.

Hi Rex

Good post. Yeah it was a rough estimate. From last years bid guys who are on courses for the 2016 training year may have been in BA for about 4 years so just out of their training freeze. Next year my estimate was that that would increase and guys/girls would probably expect to serve their 5 year freeze. To sum it up, in my first year I moved up the seniority list about 70 places. In the last two years we have seen about 800 pilots join the list. This year commands are about 1400-1500 places higher. Seems like we all agree, when the phone rings take any fleet offered. Hopefully the company can continue to offer growth and good jobs for more pilots.

Hi Rex, there is only 1 weeks difference in time in BA between seniority of approx 3000 and 3400 as all the BMI guys joined together in 1 day in late April 2012.

Binsleepen cheers I didn't account for that but the central point I was making was that it's unlikely to be significantly longer than your engagement freeze before you can move off to Long Haul if that is what you wish. Of course as I said no one knows how this will pan out going forward. I would imagine though that the increased uptake of part time options to cope with the workload and the return of retirements post 2016 to the long term historical average will only aid matters.

More like 3180-ish to 3430-ish. There are only about 250 ex-bmi guys (and girls) from the takeover in BA.

It has been posted that some people are currently moving from short haul to long haul after about four years and it seems to be the assumtion that this will continue to be the same for anyone joing short haul in the future. At the same time, it has been posted that there are several hundred BMI pilots plus a further eight hundred new joiners between those people getting long haul positions now and any future joiners. Admittedly some of these pilots are already on long haul, but are we seriously suggesting nearly one thousand pilots will move from short haul to long haul over the next four years - just as a reduction in capacity has been announced in the five year plan? It does not add up.

Should someone in the pool from Sept 2016 until March 2018 who has let BA know they'd accept SH or LH, be worried they might not get called at all? Nothing is certain I know, and having taken three attempts to pass I know I'm happy to be swimming, just wondering if i might actually need a forth attempt somewhere down the road...

Hi VJW, I'm worried about not being called at all also but hoping that if there is some positive movement in 2017 then there might be a chance. I am non typed and run out end of 2017. Seems there have been some sim checks after us so that is always positive. Guess we will be quite near the top of the list as non typed coming to end of next year so hope always alive!

Hi basiljet and VJW

I'm in the same position as you. Hold pool runs out end of 2017.

I guess it just depends on when the recruitment can "confirm the requirement for 2018" and start offering positions.

If anyone can give an estimation on this that would be great.

Would have to sink in the pool after waiting so long

Glad not to be the only one in this unsteady boat. I'm hoping if they start hiring again in 2017 then we should be ok but I have no idea of what/if/when etc. Hopefully the next few months will reveal more so then we can continue to hope or move on. Hoping for the former though.