466,000 pilots required.
 

Yes, that's the amazing figure quoted in this weeks Flight International, of the requirement for New Pilots over the next 20 years. That is just over twice the number existing at present.
The article is actually about the problems that flight training organisations are facing at the moment, but the figures were researched by Boeing.
Even more surprising is the prediction that growth in the sandbox, which is causing enough of a stir already, will only account for 7% of that, with nearly a quarter of the new pilots being required in North America, which is on it's arse in terms of the job market right now. Dust off those C.V.s
I'm reminded of the famous exchange:
"Birdseed 123, you are number 12 in traffic, reduce to minimum".
"Number 12!? What's going to happen in a few years when there's twice as much traffic?"
"You will be number 24".

Excellent ...

I'm really looking forward to my payrise and improvement in terms and conditions

And retirement, aged 80.

The demand is already there in the middle and far east judging by the same ads that appear day in, day out, month after month.

Until such time as these operators bite the bullet and start training systems of their own they'll continue as I'd suggest the supply of type-rated crew ready to up-sticks is probably already exhausted.

If that's what Flight are saying I wonder what CTC or Oxford are going to claim. 1 million? 2?

Come on guys... you're not actually falling for the old "pilot shortage" trick are you?

The pilot shortage has been talked about and coming since people started flying.. and is yet to make an appearance.

Half empty.
 

"Nice day, aint it"
"Aye, bet it will piss it down tomorrow, though."

"She seems nice"
"They all do 'til you marry 'em"

Oh well, while you guys are slitting your wrists, better make that 466,005.

23,300 pilot jobs each year WORLDWIDE does not amount to much. It also does not include:

1. Reality
2. Recessions
3. More recessions
4. Rising oil prices causing untold future problems
5. Changes to the retirement age as time passes

Boeing make aircraft that they want people to buy. They are not impartial.

466000 pay to fly schemes.

I think I might cry!

PMSL
Brilliant... Thank you.

....and my usual response to these claims, that's never answered -

What price of oil are they basing their forecasts on?

There aren't many of the worlds airlines that can have credible expansion plans once we're back into the era of $100+ a barrel.

what about food, water, islamic turmoil, poverty...
climate change!

There may well be a requirement for 466,000 pilots worldwide in the next 20 years probably to replace the 600,000 retiring/dying/losing their medicals/giving up in disgust pilots.

There's always been talk of the imminent pilot shortage. It just never happens but there's always jobs to be had. Mind you if the T&Cs continue to decline there will be a pilot shortage because it ceases to be attractive to anyone as a career just something you do for a while until something better comes along. Like working in a fast food joint.

You'll have to supply your own food and water.
The company will look after the rest...

Yes, what about all those things, anyway. I am assuming most of the doubters are new(ish) to the industry. I've seen this upturn happen three times already, and had to listen to all the reasons it couldn't happen.

"What about the financial crisis, fuel costs, recession" in the late 80's.
"What about the gulf war, fuel costs, recession" in the mid nineties.
"What about the other gulf war, fuel costs, recession" in 2004.

etc, ad nauseum, right up to the point where the company suddenly couldn't lease new airframes fast enough, trainers couldn't train because they were just trying to hold the programme together, F/O upgrades couldn't happen for the same reason. At which point all the people who had formed watery eyed huddles down the pub could now only be heard muttering "Well it seemed so unlikely". And (Gasp) payrises started to happen.

I've been there,(this will be the fourth time), it's going to kick off. You can send out the messages that you accept that it will continue to rain s**t for ever, and let that mind-set filter up through to the managers and bean-counters. Why you want to do that I can't imagine. You must have had at least a streak of optimism when you nuckled down to study stereo phonographic projections, or catastrophic winds for your atpls. I would say be careful what you wish for, but in this case it will make no difference, as it's on it's way.

And, yes Boeing want to flog aircraft. But they want orders in now, not in two or three years time when it's suddenly "How quickly can I get 50".

What do you mean by that GPTC Victim ??????

Its paid in just about one year as capt in china.
Last year take home,(saving):102000eur.

Oh and our salaries were increased 2 months ago,with more to come...

De Facto: thanks for that, although I think ASFKAP was being facetious.

Market forces are unstoppable in practical terms, and now they are in your favour, so dry your eyes, and think positive.

Quite fancy a couple of years in Vietnam, or India myself, then home to a friendly loco to work out my retirement. Should be refreshed enough by then to listen to why it wasn't possible to do what I just did.

16024

If by loco you are refering to the spanish meaning of the word then your in with a chance.

Anyone got a link to the Flight International article on this? Thanks, have tried a search to no avail.

está loco dudarlo
 

If someone was trying to encourage me to make the best of a window of opportunity, I would be looking in the wrong direction if I was channelling my energies into arguing about it. Particularly someone who knows what they are on about.

It would be nice to avoid the carnage when the levee breaks, but I don't really care much as firstly, I already have a job, and secondly I am casting around for a better one, unless the present one gets even better!

Glass not only half full, but running over. Cheers!



Cost blamed as training lags pilot demand

One day my ship will come in.With my luck i'll be at the airport.

:D:D:D

I do not believe this FTO / TRTO crap!!!! Trying to make people spend money

I find it difficult to believe that so many people doubt that we could run a little short of pilots. This is especially true for experienced operators. Let’s look at the facts:

1) Training is extremely expensive and finding funding for flight training is nearly impossible. Major training FTO's are being approached by multiple airlines to produce an impossible number of new blood. Highest bidder wins.

2) Air Forces are shrinking at an alarming rate due to massive cut backs and the introduction of UAVs.

3) The world wide retirement age is now 65. Many carriers were 50 at one point, moved to 55/60 and now on to 65. THIS AGE CHANGE CAN’T CONTINUE

4) Some countries are facing massive retirement bubbles (USA) due to demographics.

5) The manufacturers of aircraft (today along with the FAA) are predicting massive growth in the next 10-20 years.

6) We have just gone though the largest recession this new generation of pilots may ever see.

The gulf is going to get cleaned out as soon as the North American/European major carriers start hiring en masse (this is just starting) and wages in the region could easily double. Those low-cost airlines that chose the ‘We treat our crews like !!!!’ route are going to get hit very hard as well. The demand in China/India will be staggering making experienced well trained pilots a hot commodity. The loss of traditional seniority systems and final salary pensions at established carriers will only enable pilots who would normally hang about for 30 odd years to shop their experience around to the highest bidder.

I am not saying it is going to be all roses but if you look at the hard facts it is not looking bad at all. The airlines short sightedness in the last decade is going to come back to haunt them. They are now trying to prevent shortness in supply by reducing licensing time (MPL) and working to increase FTL’s.

You can’t squeeze blood from a stone and too little too late.

1) Training is extremely expensive and finding funding for flight training is nearly impossible. Major training FTO's are being approached by multiple airlines to produce an impossible number of new blood. Highest bidder wins.

who cares, parents will still pay megabucks for their spoiled kids...


2) Air Forces are shrinking at an alarming rate due to massive cut backs and the introduction of UAVs.

still, pilots will fly on the ground, they can log these hours as flight hours...


3) The world wide retirement age is now 65. Many carriers were 50 at one point, moved to 55/60 and now on to 65. THIS AGE CHANGE CAN’T CONTINUE

oh yes it will continue, no limit,based on your 1 st class

4) Some countries are facing massive retirement bubbles (USA) due to demographics.

doesn't mean they need pilot!!

5) The manufacturers of aircraft (today along with the FAA) are predicting massive growth in the next 10-20 years.

in 20 years, you will be too old. another BS from manufacturers...how they can predict the futur in 10 years if people drop bombs on their neighbour?

6) We have just gone though the largest recession this new generation of pilots may ever see.

pilots recession or P2f recession??

You'd think people would get tired of being negative and brutally pessimistic 100% of the time on pprune... not really!

7574ever,

this one's for you....

http://www.beyondchron.org/news/news...AM-3940637.gif

Hahahaha, that made for a good laugh. Now that is a different kind of pessimism, at least it's fun!

Pilot "shortage"
 

Having been in aviation both "fixing em and flying em" for neigh on 30 years I think there will never be a shortage of people to fly aeroplanes(note the Queens ENGLISH spelling), as such. What there will be is a shortage of pilots to fly on the Employers terms ,eg Jet2 are struggling to find people to pay for all training for a part time job(else why keep advertising?). So there will be a shortage of P2F and "interns of aviation" in a few years time. I do think that if the world does not run out of oil when the recovery starts for real(2017) that the demand for flying in the UK will return to prior 2008 levels with the same pilot requirement(a lot).

Yes, long term projections by those in the know IE: not just traders or airline pilots;)), call for oil prices to be between $65-80/barrell...short term spikes, notwithstanding.
Observation by Platts Oilgram project (long term) slightly lower.
And yes, I know many in the oil industry.

Why isnt 'captsuperstorm's ignorant wittering deleted too?!

Ok, in plain English...

Supply and demand dictate price in any industry, so in the coming years why should that be any different in the airlines?!

- there will be more aircraft (ie. More delivered than scrapped)
- there will be more passengers
- the increased retirement age will be reached by more silver haired aviators
- less newbies will be spat out of the schools

Conditions have to improve as we gain more choice of employers. P2F was around when I finished flying school, yet I haven't paid for any of my type ratings.

I'm not holding my breath... but neither am I slashing my wrists!

not necessarily.

Control of supply and demand also govern pricing structures; as does legislation, anti-competition rules, free trade agreements, taxation etc. etc.

all these also have an impact into the situation concerning pilot T&C's, income and disposable salary.

Really ? in the UK who provides access to the recruitment with potential employers ?

there's a lot of factors that need to be considered in the situation.

Sorry I should have said... Supply and demand AFFECT prices

Apologies again, I dont understand this comment...

salsa, likewise i wasn't clear. let me rephrase...

who controls, or provides access to the airlines that have the dominant recruitment demands?

I think a certain element of the control is in the hands of those who accept the conditions... at the moment I understand why they are being accepted. Hopefully in the future, less applicants will feel they have to.

the thing is we had a similar thread very recently, and the pilot shortage demand statement rears its head regularly. Most recently it was in a thread entitled BALPA - UK facing shortage of pilots

Rather than re-posting what has already been said, my comments are here and follow on in further replies...


http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/4...ml#post6051388

Quoting CaptainSuperstorm
UAV/RPA hours typically don´t count towards overall flying hours for a cockpit job. They do count towards a UAV/RPA job in the civilian world.

To state the obvious. Airlines in the so called first world are now a mature industry showing little linearity in their hiring cycles. New airlines aren't popping into existence, growth for any particular carrier is derived from general economic expansion or the poaching of someone else's revenue traffic. For pilot employment in a stagnant industry (with the exception of retirements) a gain at one carrier occurs because of losses at another. The overall number of employed pilots doesn't change and even though the music stops, the training machine continues to march on and add to the bottom of the unemployment pile where P2F can work its mischief.

Much of the anticipated growth will be in developing overseas markets. Some of the opportunities on offer will be worth investigating, many of them won't - and sooner or later the home grown talent will claim their own territory back.

And the projections are of course extrapolated from a less than lucid business model. Consider the future price of oil, a key component.

Your guess as to future pricing is as good as mine, or it would seem as that of other posters.



411A posted Feb 24th on this thread:

Nothing to worry about then. Or is there?


411A posted March 2nd Middle East forum - Life at Emirates:

I'd call that hedging on the price of fuel. :rolleyes:

The dice are definitely rolling on these projected 466,000 pilot slots.

It will be interesting in the USA for the regionals when the 1,500 hour and ATP rule kicks in.

While nothing is decided yet, the proposed EASA NPA 2010-14 absolutely doesn't state this. Quite the opposite actually, at least if currently regulated by Subpart Q. Don't know what the UK CAA FTL is at the moment, so I could be wrong on that part.

The recommended option would still be 900 hours per calender year, and max. 1000 per 12 consecutive calender months. This is actually MORE restrictive than the current limit of just 900 per calender year, which would make it possible to do 1200 hours in a 12 month running period.

I have heard BA plan to recruit 500 pilots this year or into the early part of 2012, depending on their retirement pilot plans.
Not sure if this is experience guys or integrated cadets?