466,000 pilots required.
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2002
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From: uk
466,000 pilots required.
Yes, that's the amazing figure quoted in this weeks Flight International, of the requirement for New Pilots over the next 20 years. That is just over twice the number existing at present.
The article is actually about the problems that flight training organisations are facing at the moment, but the figures were researched by Boeing.
Even more surprising is the prediction that growth in the sandbox, which is causing enough of a stir already, will only account for 7% of that, with nearly a quarter of the new pilots being required in North America, which is on it's arse in terms of the job market right now. Dust off those C.V.s
I'm reminded of the famous exchange:
"Birdseed 123, you are number 12 in traffic, reduce to minimum".
"Number 12!? What's going to happen in a few years when there's twice as much traffic?"
"You will be number 24".
The article is actually about the problems that flight training organisations are facing at the moment, but the figures were researched by Boeing.
Even more surprising is the prediction that growth in the sandbox, which is causing enough of a stir already, will only account for 7% of that, with nearly a quarter of the new pilots being required in North America, which is on it's arse in terms of the job market right now. Dust off those C.V.s
I'm reminded of the famous exchange:
"Birdseed 123, you are number 12 in traffic, reduce to minimum".
"Number 12!? What's going to happen in a few years when there's twice as much traffic?"
"You will be number 24".
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 256
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From: South of the Watford Gap, East of Portland
The demand is already there in the middle and far east judging by the same ads that appear day in, day out, month after month.
Until such time as these operators bite the bullet and start training systems of their own they'll continue as I'd suggest the supply of type-rated crew ready to up-sticks is probably already exhausted.
Until such time as these operators bite the bullet and start training systems of their own they'll continue as I'd suggest the supply of type-rated crew ready to up-sticks is probably already exhausted.
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 305
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From: world
Come on guys... you're not actually falling for the old "pilot shortage" trick are you?
The pilot shortage has been talked about and coming since people started flying.. and is yet to make an appearance.
The pilot shortage has been talked about and coming since people started flying.. and is yet to make an appearance.
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 302
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From: uk
Half empty.
"Nice day, aint it"
"Aye, bet it will piss it down tomorrow, though."
"She seems nice"
"They all do 'til you marry 'em"
Oh well, while you guys are slitting your wrists, better make that 466,005.
"Aye, bet it will piss it down tomorrow, though."
"She seems nice"
"They all do 'til you marry 'em"
Oh well, while you guys are slitting your wrists, better make that 466,005.
Joined: Oct 2005
Posts: 201
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From: uk
23,300 pilot jobs each year WORLDWIDE does not amount to much. It also does not include:
1. Reality
2. Recessions
3. More recessions
4. Rising oil prices causing untold future problems
5. Changes to the retirement age as time passes
Boeing make aircraft that they want people to buy. They are not impartial.
1. Reality
2. Recessions
3. More recessions
4. Rising oil prices causing untold future problems
5. Changes to the retirement age as time passes
Boeing make aircraft that they want people to buy. They are not impartial.
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 108
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From: UK
"Nice day, aint it"
"Aye, bet it will piss it down tomorrow, though."
"She seems nice"
"They all do 'til you marry 'em"
Oh well, while you guys are slitting your wrists, better make that 466,005.
"Aye, bet it will piss it down tomorrow, though."
"She seems nice"
"They all do 'til you marry 'em"
Oh well, while you guys are slitting your wrists, better make that 466,005.
Brilliant... Thank you.
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 252
Likes: 0
From: Canada
....and my usual response to these claims, that's never answered -
What price of oil are they basing their forecasts on?
There aren't many of the worlds airlines that can have credible expansion plans once we're back into the era of $100+ a barrel.
What price of oil are they basing their forecasts on?
There aren't many of the worlds airlines that can have credible expansion plans once we're back into the era of $100+ a barrel.
Joined: Oct 1999
Posts: 628
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From: Ireland
There may well be a requirement for 466,000 pilots worldwide in the next 20 years probably to replace the 600,000 retiring/dying/losing their medicals/giving up in disgust pilots.
There's always been talk of the imminent pilot shortage. It just never happens but there's always jobs to be had. Mind you if the T&Cs continue to decline there will be a pilot shortage because it ceases to be attractive to anyone as a career just something you do for a while until something better comes along. Like working in a fast food joint.
There's always been talk of the imminent pilot shortage. It just never happens but there's always jobs to be had. Mind you if the T&Cs continue to decline there will be a pilot shortage because it ceases to be attractive to anyone as a career just something you do for a while until something better comes along. Like working in a fast food joint.
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 302
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From: uk
what about food, water, islamic turmoil, poverty...
climate change!
climate change!
The company will look after the rest...
Yes, what about all those things, anyway. I am assuming most of the doubters are new(ish) to the industry. I've seen this upturn happen three times already, and had to listen to all the reasons it couldn't happen.
"What about the financial crisis, fuel costs, recession" in the late 80's.
"What about the gulf war, fuel costs, recession" in the mid nineties.
"What about the other gulf war, fuel costs, recession" in 2004.
etc, ad nauseum, right up to the point where the company suddenly couldn't lease new airframes fast enough, trainers couldn't train because they were just trying to hold the programme together, F/O upgrades couldn't happen for the same reason. At which point all the people who had formed watery eyed huddles down the pub could now only be heard muttering "Well it seemed so unlikely". And (Gasp) payrises started to happen.
I've been there,(this will be the fourth time), it's going to kick off. You can send out the messages that you accept that it will continue to rain s**t for ever, and let that mind-set filter up through to the managers and bean-counters. Why you want to do that I can't imagine. You must have had at least a streak of optimism when you nuckled down to study stereo phonographic projections, or catastrophic winds for your atpls. I would say be careful what you wish for, but in this case it will make no difference, as it's on it's way.
And, yes Boeing want to flog aircraft. But they want orders in now, not in two or three years time when it's suddenly "How quickly can I get 50".
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 302
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From: uk
De Facto: thanks for that, although I think ASFKAP was being facetious.
Market forces are unstoppable in practical terms, and now they are in your favour, so dry your eyes, and think positive.
Quite fancy a couple of years in Vietnam, or India myself, then home to a friendly loco to work out my retirement. Should be refreshed enough by then to listen to why it wasn't possible to do what I just did.
Market forces are unstoppable in practical terms, and now they are in your favour, so dry your eyes, and think positive.
Quite fancy a couple of years in Vietnam, or India myself, then home to a friendly loco to work out my retirement. Should be refreshed enough by then to listen to why it wasn't possible to do what I just did.
Thread Starter
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 302
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From: uk
está loco dudarlo
If someone was trying to encourage me to make the best of a window of opportunity, I would be looking in the wrong direction if I was channelling my energies into arguing about it. Particularly someone who knows what they are on about.
It would be nice to avoid the carnage when the levee breaks, but I don't really care much as firstly, I already have a job, and secondly I am casting around for a better one, unless the present one gets even better!
Glass not only half full, but running over. Cheers!
Cost blamed as training lags pilot demand
It would be nice to avoid the carnage when the levee breaks, but I don't really care much as firstly, I already have a job, and secondly I am casting around for a better one, unless the present one gets even better!
Glass not only half full, but running over. Cheers!
Cost blamed as training lags pilot demand
Last edited by 16024; 15th February 2011 at 13:32.