But BA don't know what their pilot's retirement plans are. Since the ending of compulsary retirement at age 55 pilot manpower planning at BA has become a real headache since BA have no idea who will retire and when. If all the over 55's left BA next year then yes, a figure of 500 might be credible, but my best guess is more like 200-300 tops.

The shortage isn't here yet, though for once I will not be in the slightest bit surprised if it does indeed arrive.

In the last few years carriers have tried short term measures such as increasing retirement age etc. These things can only ever give a very, very limited amount of benefit until you get bitten on the bottom.

I know for a fact the need of a few large UK airlines and a couple of very large European carriers. (Obviously I'm not going to go into detail here, but I am in a position to know about these things.) They are all gearing up for large recruitment drives as we speak. A couple of these are companies that haven't taken anyone on for 4-5 years and have even frozen the pay of their entire workforces and yet here we are with them going "uh oh, not enough crews" time to dust off the recruitment books.

This is happening now in what has ben described as the worst economic crisis for 70ish years. Give it another couple of years on the upturn away from economic meltdown and things will be changing rapidly indeed.

I have no idea about the veracity of a need for 466,000 pilots, but I do know that there have been very few trained in the last 5 years because recruitment has been limited (apart from RYR) and the availability of cheap money for training has all but dried up. This has put people off and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

I do not suggest that people spank £100K or do anything stupid like apply to CTC for a walletectomy on the basis of a Boeing forecast (or for any other reason for that matter), but I am convinced that the pilot job market is a whole heap rosier than it was a year ago and that it will only get better and better.

Lack of investment in any business ALWAYS comes home to roost and the lack of investment by airlines in pilot training will eventually come back to haunt. Not yet, but it will happen.

PPRUNE is always full of doom and gloom merchants and malcontents, often they have a point. In this case though, I'm not sure they do.

SAS
 

Say Again s l o w l y, you are bang on the numbers :D and its about time that the reality of our future is appreciated. Management always seem prone to miscalculating both airframe and pilot numbers and, as usual, a sudden abundance of sustained business results in some pretty interesting pilot recruitment programs...watch this space. :ok:

Yep, very good post by Say Again Slowly, very well put.

It's nice to read what I used to believe in firmly. Though I no longer subscribe to it.
I have had the fortune of been in one of the majors for years, after bashing around regionally. You folks should try understand the dxckhxxds in HR how their puny brains work when it comes to pilot recruitment. NO ONE, absolutely NO ONE will pay more than the top benchmark for expatriate left seat driver entry level of $15K/month total benefits, give and take a few hundreds.
I would be absolutely delighted the day does come that I'm proven wrong. Till then, watch out for all the fraudulent pilots in mass production from so call the up and coming aviation scenes.

Guess they will just lower standards to fill those flightdeck seats, the old T&C's will never return:

YouTube - Tommy's New Job - Come Fly With Me - BBC One:E

Lowering standards also include lowering pay-checks and you can always find someone willing to be a pilot for less (or even worse, paying). Airlines understood pretty well the concept of right seaters paying the monthly check to the left seaters ... and they call it 'cadet program'

Anyway
Latest projections suggest that a minimum of 50,000 additional pilots will be needed over the next eight years just to meet the requirements of current Chinese orders - and that doesn't take account requirements for business aviation and the entry of new airlines through the region.

With all the different articles regarding the declining standards, and now all these articles regarding 'Pilot Shortages cometh', and added to that these Pay 2 Fly Schemes, it could be very interesting times ahead!

The Asia Pacific region is going to be the area of most growth.....even more interesting!!

The large amounts of pilots that will be "needed" in the future will be delivered. As you can see from this forum, there are many people willing to dish out stupid amounts of money to get a job. The point is that these number are complete BS. No one knows how many pilots will be needed and how many will be found.

Its funny to observe how in some countries, even though there is a financial crisis taking place, airlines see this as an opportunity. If you get a job or not has nothing to do with these number i believe. It has everything to do with timing, luck, connections and a bit of persistance. One thing is for sure, its for sure not as bad as last year.. Hang in there everyone :)