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And note that Germans do some creative statistics there.
If you had asthma and got COVID19 and then died - they count you as asthma death. So reality is muuuch worse there. & |
Originally Posted by Flyingmole
(Post 10712361)
But unfortunately what you have failed to factor in is just how infectious Covid-19 is. With Western European countries such as Germany now saying - based on their best available scientific advice - that 70% or more of their population may get infected this year it doesn't take a maths genius to work out that in Germany this would mean a 0.5% fatality rate would result in 400,000 deaths.
Like aviation that keeps on growing, the greater the population at risk, the greater the number affected by a single cause. What is needed is the relative contribution of a single cause over a fixed period of time, compared to the basic underlying risk of dying from any cause, known or unknown. Jet Blast |
Are there any stats on the numbers already well? The last graph (outcome of cases) is compelling. |
Originally Posted by Uplinker
(Post 10712242)
According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.
According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough. Time to stop panicking. Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals. Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too... |
Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 10712389)
Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.
Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too... Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested. |
Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 10712389)
Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.
Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too... 1% is the going rate - UK CMO Take a look at the facts about both topics |
In responce to the question "Who will still be here in 6 months". My answer,...Most of us...But with almost eight billion humans on this world the numbers will still be huge.
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Wait til this hits the 3rd world... Italy can't cope, imagine some parts of Africa...
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Originally Posted by Islandlad
(Post 10712418)
Did Al Gore do your modeling for that?
1% is the going rate - UK CMO Take a look at the facts about both topics https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca |
Originally Posted by 733driver
(Post 10712414)
I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%
Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested. |
Originally Posted by Islandlad
(Post 10712418)
Did Al Gore do your modeling for that?
1% is the going rate - UK CMO Take a look at the facts about both topics https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...-fatality-rate Yeah, the CMO says no problem- https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ave-it-says-pm Facts on that other matter https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-than-in-1990s |
Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 10712432)
But 1% is WAY lowball
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...-fatality-rate Yeah, the CMO says no problem- https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ave-it-says-pm Facts on that other matter https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-than-in-1990s |
Originally Posted by 733driver
(Post 10712414)
I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%
Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested. |
Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 10712427)
And, of course, your figures are based on "My Guess"- not the experts whose job it is to provide these figures.
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The U.K. CMO is saying that between 5000 to 10000 people in the IK have the virus, very few are confirmed cases. Like other countries the confirmed cases are the “tip of the iceberg”. So working on that premiss the death rate is about .7%.
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Originally Posted by Jonty
(Post 10712456)
The U.K. CMO is saying that between 5000 to 10000 people in the IK have the virus, very few are confirmed cases. Like other countries the confirmed cases are the “tip of the iceberg”. So working on that premiss the death rate is about .7%.
Once you are confirmed, the probability of dying is 3.4% (or whatever the number currently is), because you are now in the tested cohort, and we know the mortality rate of the tested cohort. |
Originally Posted by 733driver
(Post 10712454)
Wrong: My "guess" based on expert opinion I have read. I'm just making their bets guess my best guess. We do know the number of deaths but we (including the experts) can only guess the number of those infected. It's almost certain that many more people are invected but have not been tested.
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Originally Posted by cattletruck
(Post 10712268)
Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.... but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
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In 2017, there were 56 million deaths globally World population is approximately 7.7 billion. The worst case infection rate has been quoted as 80% which would give 6.16 billion. If the mortality rate of 1% is correct then 61.6 million extra deaths. I wish I hadn't looked now. |
Originally Posted by Wizofoz
(Post 10712389)
Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.
Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too... |
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