I'm not so sure that everything will go back to what it was before. The fragility of the supply chains that resulted from globalisation will make a lot of people think whether there is another way to do things, especially when it comes to food security and medical supplies. I think we may well see the re-emergence of 'national champions' that allow countries to keep vital business production within the country.

.....or not

Supply chains have been vulnerable since we stopped doing everything in each village. But that made each village vulnerable to weather and/or crop disease.

Oh I think we would have noticed an increased death rate. Consider the problems that the Italians are having in their hospitals.

Thank you. I'm flabbergasted that this isn't obvious to some people.

+1 for Tacho, well +0.5 anyway. imo it's a good idea to have a bit of social distancing etc to slow down the spread, to give the medical system time to prepare a bit and to get a bit more understanding of the virus before it becomes truly pandemic (which it will, no doubt about that).

I've been chatting (at a social distance of course, since we're on different continents) with my brother about it all. He happens to be a virologist. We've agreed that the big problem with all the extrapolations and forecasts of millions dead is that nobody has a clue how many people get infected, have an immune response, but never have symptoms and maybe never become infectious. It's clear that pretty much all children and <20 follow this path.

As for becoming less dependent on China etc - ain't gonna happen, because the lowest price always wins. My favourite subject in that regard is supply of rare earths. They are essential for all sorts of things (notably electric motors) and they all come from China. There are plenty of reserves elsewhere, but every time anyone tries to reopen a mine, they fail because it's cheaper to get it from China. (Actually the last attempt in the US went broke, got bought by a Chinese company, then shut down). Do governments say "this stuff matters, we'll subsidise local production"? Hell no. Rinse and repeat for everything else.

I agree. Calling it "just a flu" is like calling MCAS running amok "just a trim runaway". Interestingly, initial reactions here when the MCAS issues were revealed were similar: "it's just media/social media induced hysteria" or "why is this such a big issue, you just do X".

I think the people downplaying COVID-19 will change their tune when their local hospitals are overwhelmed and long queues start forming at the cemeteries, like it's happening now in Italy.

Yes, technically it's a flu. But a flu that is very easy to spread and has demonstrated its ability to overwhelm healthcare facilities very fast, and seems to be more lethal compared to regular flu. But, since exponential growth is unintuitive to most people, it's hard for many to understand that having a perfectly manageable number of cases today can turn into hell in just a week or so.

Yes, we shouldn't panic, as panic doesn't solve anything. Yes, we should try to protect businesses and the economy. But don't call it "just a flu". It really isn't. And in my opinion the authorities are not overreacting. In fact I think in most cases they are underreacting and not taking strong enough measures until it's too late.

I am amazed at those who still brand this Virus a media hype; oh that it were. Speaking to my doctor the other day he quoted his contacts globally (he is a well connectd multilingual man) and from all the affected areas the feedback is the same. In his words "This is a very nasty virus; make sure you don't get it. If you do, you may have no more than 2 weeks left; that is a common exoerience speaking to doctors in Italy, Iran and the Middle East" So, go on dismissing it as just another flue bug and ignore the restrictions and whilst you may survive you could pass it on to someone who won't. That seems rather selfish.

I mean quotes like this were where we can start separating the smart from the less so. So much more to it.. UK and the USA. We’d to wake up fast.. and they are not alone.

What's happening in Northern Italy is a example of what could happen in any region if precautions aren't taken. Media hype my arse, the stories coming out of there are frightening.

+1. The flu is widespread and has killed 20k, covid has only reached a fraction of the population and has killed 3k. Not comparable. I can't understand why people still think this is over hyped when northern Italy is actually demonstrating in front of us what can happen in our own region. Was it a backlog of 132 bodies for a crematorium that can only process 25 a day? That's hardly business as usual ffs.

This thread has run amok and has little to do with aviation and more to do with what makes the sky fall.

I caution about listening to false prophets and instead pay attention to applied science to a collection of facts taher than what-ifs or one-offs

Lets get back to the thread subject

Bergamo - North of Italy
 

Bergamo is a lovely and very rich city in the North of Italy. Possibly one of the most efficient and beautiful towns on the planet. Bergamo even includes Unesco World Heritage sites. Top quality of life and highly productive across various industries. Very rich. Top of the top in Italy, highly efficient and highly organised. One of the best NHS in the world. Top Consultants. Top equipment.
Bergamo has witnessed military trucks moving coffins out of town. This means that the rest of the world is basically fuc**d.
All countries should take this virus very seriously and before it's too late or we will end up with millions of deaths. 9/11 will look like a non event vs Covid19. Wake up human race.

Not sure there will be an airline in the world that will survive the next 6 months other than in name. The phoenix will be interesting to see.

Whats the mean age of the hospitalisations there and what’s the mode age of the deaths recorded? Genuine question.

L.A. County confirms 61 new coronavirus cases, says median age among all patients is 47

Yes, Young People Are Falling Seriously Ill From Covid-19

In the U.S., 705 of first 2,500 cases range in age from 20 to 44.
And in Italy
More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

The media are spinning this regardless of how you regard the seriousness of the actual virus. I saw a banner headline the other day of a young guy in his twenties “killed by the Coronavirus”. Buried deeper down in the article somewhere it was revealed that he also had leukaemia (!) That’s disgusting journalism IMHO and is only feeding the frenzy, there’s a huge bit of context there that is being deliberately suppressed.

From the study (Italy) mentioned by Longtimer:
(death toll men, women, total)

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4ef7aaaa5d.png

Yeah... I take:

The "Who" to be an airline, rather than a person. Let's discuss the airline industry in this thread please. I know we all have our concerns ans beliefs with respect to the virus' effect on people, that's for a discussion elsewhere. Airplanes/Airlines/Pilot jobs here...

And crap ATC...(to bring it back to aviation :})