While I agree it is not all doom and gloom. We have to keep one thing in mind though. Package Holiday operators like TUI, Jet2 and others are by law accountable when their customers cannot complete their holidays. They either have to provide their clients vouchers or worse, reimbursements. They also have to work out how much of the damage they can share with their suppliers (airlines / acco / etc). The problem is if one big player falls this might trigger a chain reaction. Package operators like TUI, who have expensive assets like airplanes and hotels are hit the hardest I guess. Luckily TUI was in reasonable good shape.

Hope so, just booked a holiday with them for next year!

Tour operators continue to offer uber low deposits on holidays next year. I'm not holding my breath but hopefully people will take a small punt on a credit card and book a something for next year. Cash flow for these businesses is absolutely vital right now. Without it we expect some high profile casualties over the coming months.

It is far too early to make assumptions about how the industry will shape up! We can all agree it will be a very bad year for Aviation, some weaker Airlines will fail and there will be mistrust between nations and some loss of consumer confidence. However, we are assuming science and technology don’t play their part! Some of the biggest brains on the planet are working tirelessly to find testing kits, trial medication and find technology solutions to allow life to prevail. These are the darkest days now, and it’s understandable to feel vulnerable..... But just like this nasty virus finds a way, humans will find a way. I recall 9/11 was the end of aviation, confidence gone, there will be no demand for air travel, it’s over!

I’m sure there will be many who say the issue is not the virus it’s the impending recession.... Fair comment. However, unlike 08-10 recession there will be a level playing field globally, there won’t be austerity like last time as the world is currently closed for business. Opening the cash taps will be the only way to jolt business and people back to life! I imagine we are only scratching the surface of the state aid that will be required this year. But, remember there are large numbers of people who won’t even notice a difference to daily life... Some even better off.

Also, consider the Government are well aware of the immense pressure on the Aviation sector at the moment. Like many other industries there will be benefits in the form of tax reliefs, APD etc. Plus Airports, foreign countries will be desperate to entice the British public through their gates and to their shores. There will be a period of reduced costs for Airlines. Now, the big one...... Oil.... tanked... through the floor! As this is the biggest single unit cost for most Airlines, we can likely see a period of reduced fuel prices, which could be immensely significant for many Airlines over the next few years in terms of recovery.

Now let’s look at UK Aviation in isolation. In the leisure market a significant player ( TCX ) went bust last year causing a natural contraction. Also, the demise of a Flybe has left a hole in domestic travel which the Government will be keen to see plugged. There is a possibility of a couple of high profile players becoming insolvent, and it is likely the long haul market will be suppressed for a few years to come. However, I recall in the wake of 9/11 a certain Irish Airline picking up large quantities of cheap Aircraft and embarking on a significant growth cycle... We can assume there will be cancelled orders and excess stock of Aircraft knocking around for the next few years.... This will be viewed as opportunity by the more bold/shrewd in the industry.

Ultimately no-one knows what will happen, Aviation is hurting and will hurt More over the next 6 month. The significant pain will be short term ( maybe 3 months more ). A key question I ask myself is the international relationships and trust. If country A is clear, but B has seen a flair up in cases... Will travel restrictions be imposed/remain It is conceivable trust in the market will disappear in the short term, but effective treatment and testing, followed by a vaccine with 12-18 months will see a sustained recovery. I guess we can largely write off this year in Aviation, but I would ask the doom merchants to provide data of demand, forward bookings for this winter or maybe next year. Until we see that sort of data, assumptions are based on people’s own fear and propaganda.

There is no doubt Aviation will bounce back, it may take time and it may change. However, unlike many other occasions there is motivation to get business working. I personally believe the package holiday will emerge even stronger. The benefits of ABTA/ATOL. Also, the concept of all inclusive... ‘ I pay my money and sit by a pool and be catered for...don’t need to leave my hotel and mix .’ It’s simple human nature. That, backed up by science and technology will facilitate the crazy Brits darkening the shores of Benidorm and Magaluf once again. We need to sit tight and ride a very nasty storm and hope our employers have the resources to see the light at the end of the tunnel. But more importantly focus on the bigger picture of thousands people loosing their life... and doing our bit!

Vokes55 What type of flying do you do? Because unless you are doing schedule round the UK with weekends off or are part time having any kind of social life is very difficult.

What are you doing with your free time? Oh maybe I shouldn't have asked ;)

I would agree, almost all my friends (and lots of them are not high earners) are saying things along the lines of "I hope my holiday in July, August, etc. is still on"

I have no "new found free time" BUT I have been 'self-isolating' from the news for about 3 weeks now. I do not need to watch repetitive doom mongers. I walk the dogs, work in the garden, read books, listen to music and go to work. And life is enjoyable. Not a single thing that you watch in the news is going to change your career over the next few weeks. But trying to find something 'between the lines' (or between the twaddle?) in the news can be depressing. So cheer yourself up and just don't watch it. This applies to every airline and every flying job at the moment.

Some interesting points, please tell me us you have data that the aviation industry will be back to normal by the winter?
Most agree that the industry will bounce back, that in itself doesn’t make one a sage on the subject, as to when this happens, well, that’s for the debate, but past events have shown that as global disruptions to the world economy go, this hangover may take a few more years to get over than you infer.

More like good job TUI got a bail out from the German government.

would the GerGov give a “bail out” to an unhealthy company?
The Bail Out in fact was a loan that had to be approved by the banks. You think the banks would approve if they expected TUI not to be able to ever pay back?

I don't think governments always bailout healthy companies do they, they wouldn't be bailing it out if it was healthy. Healthy companies have cash reserves to cater for the unthinkable.

Quick look at TUI AG's books and they were forecasting a net profit of approximately £500 million, however they have a net debt of over 5 BILLION, so basically they have zero cash in in the bank, hence the reason for needing bailing out.

TUI AG is certainly not a company I would put any cash into.

At the moment it is not a bailout. It is a line of credit which may or may not be needed depending on how long the current situation lasts. It is a prudent move as there is still much uncertainty and it is better to have it in place now rather than trying to find support later should the world situation deteriorate further. As to putting money into the company, the current situation did not deter a multi-national investor buying 3.5% of the company.

banterbus

I agree in part with both Big X and Banterbus. Using the GOV job retention scheme is indeed a very prudent and sensible business move. It simply makes sense - it's effectively free money and will increase the sustainability of the cash reserves the company has. However the communication has to date in my opinion been lacking. The letter we all received was half baked, and unintentionally (I have no doubt) caused a lot of anxiety and uncertainty to a lot of staff. Almost a week on and the fact is, there's not one of us employees who have been furloughed, who have any firm idea of what we may or may not be paid this month or in the months to come. Yes, we all assume there will be an uplift of some kind, but that is actually only an assumption - I'm 100% certain it's a correct assumption, as our Management do actually care, but still, it is an assumption. So yes, I agree the use of the furlough scheme is a good thing, but let's not pretend the communication around has been anything other than dismal.

Because of the low interest environment that has been around since 2008 I think you’ll struggle to find any big multinational businesses that hasn’t taken advantage of debt and low interest rates. Which with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have just got even lower.

DTG, EZJ both have net cash. DTG probably has one of the strongest books amongst the airlines.

Any company with more debt that it can pay will eventually go bust, doesn't matter how cheap the debt is, you have to pay it back one day.

I’m certainly not suggesting this winter and next year it will be back to the good times! I am not inferring that. Outside the Flight deck I work with Aerodrome stake holders and regulators across the globe. It is widely expected it will take several years to recover ( if it’s even possible ) to 2019 traffic levels. However, so many people talk of Aviation being doomed, shrinking to nothing, and all sorts of other scary prospects. However, we must look at each event in isolation. P*ssed off Brits stuck at home for extended periods being part funded by the Government! Oil costing a fraction of what it did previously. Chancellors motivated to prop economies up, not normal in a recession.

I am for not one second suggesting how this may play out.... It is severe for the industry! But.... in the UK we have seen a number of Airlines fail prior to COVID, so there has been a natural contraction. I personally have lived through 9/11, SARS,MERS,swine flu and two significant gulf wars. I am saying that humans do and will find a way to trust the industry again, and they will!. Things will certainly change, it will be most prevalent in long haul markets and business travel. But I genuinely am mildly optimistic that we can and will prevail unlike other times of setback. I do believe a I unilateral global response is key and the limiting factor until we see a vaccine available.

It’s easy to think that way. The reality is that debt does not ‘have to be paid back one day’. Rather, it needs to be serviced and debt rolled over. It’s easy to confuse what an individual might have to do, with loans and credit cards and the reality of how business works.

I’ve been investing for 30 years, I know how it works, but thanks for trying to educate me.

Find a company with excessively more debt than profit, short it and over the long run you will win.

Thomas Cook was one of them, so was FlyBe (it made me a significant amount shorting these) Aviation examples but there are hundreds of companies with excessive debt.

https://www.flightglobal.com/strateg...137774.article

I found this article, copied from another thread very interesting, as a view from an analyst that seems fairly balanced, pointing that the aviation industry as we knew it in January will take a few years to return.

“...It also warns of weak traffic growth stretching deep into the upcoming decade. “It will take until 2022 or maybe 2023 to recover the level of traffic seen in 2019, since aviation volumes are directly related to economic activity and the world economy will shrink through this outbreak...”

Jet2 have announced their pay intentions during furlough and for a fixed period of April to Sept 2020. Basic salary will be reduced by 30.00% for Captains, 24.81% for Senior First Officers, 23.14% for First Officers, and 18.56% for Second Officers. When the airline starts flying again, but during the period April to Sept, by 20.00% for Captains, 14.56% for Senior First Officers, 12.09% for First Officers and 8.54% for Second Officers.

The % reduction is only lower In jet2 because the pay scales are less than other U.K. airlines in the first place so the addition to the government max furlough amount is roughly the same.

tui pilots are very happy with their covid deal and the collaborative approach from management has been warmly received. EasyJet on the other hand have pilots rejecting deals and management making grabs on terms and conditions.

looking at how pilots have been treated during the furlough certainly indicated Tui and jet2 are the employers of choice amongst these.

tui also receiving massive state support from the German government.

I work for Tui and fly with plenty of ex easyJet, Ryanair and jet2 pilots, I don’t know any that have voluntarily gone the other way.

I do. Not many I will grant you, but there are guys at Jet2 that left Jet2 to go to TUI and hated it and have returned.

Does anyone notice a trend here that anything even remotely positive mentioned about TUI is quickly knocked down by those at Jet2?

Why is that?

I notice that when Thomas Cook were still around it was a friendly competitive attitude, just banter between colleagues at the two employers.
Certainly only my opinion but it’s quite sad that it’s not just the odd comparison of T’s and C’s these days, the impression I get more often that not is it’s basically whatever Jet2 do is the best, and anyone else can happily keep quiet.

unfortunately the management culture is “ let’s give um a good kicking”.
whether it is other companies,airports, or more importantly employees that are deemed unworthy.

I was one of the 600 who lost their job when Thomas Cook folded. Luckily, I was offered a new job with Jet2. I have found them to be excellent and I'm very happy with the overall package. I applied for dozens of jobs but my main focus was staying in the UK. I'm sure I would have been equally happy with TUI but I didn't get an interview.

Some people are rather childish about "their airline" being better or superior to others. What matters is that as an employee you are happy. Simple as that.

Lets hope we are all around wearing our existing uniforms 6 months from now.

What a pointless statement. The work which Jet2 and Tui short haul do is broadly similar in the destinations they fly to. But Tui’s terms and conditions are significantly better. Hence the significant flow of (excellent) Jet2 pilots to Tui. The fact that a handful may have returned to Jet2, says nothing. It’s about as relevant as saying my grandad lived to be a 102 even though he smoked 50 cigarettes a day. Anecdotally it’s true, but hardly disproves the accepted facts.

I would disagree, I was merely pointing out that the comment that inferred that nobody leaves TUI to go to Jet2 is incorrect.

TUI do have better T’s and C’s but their swapping round of 787 to 737 and sending people to Scandinavia and bullet trips followed by taxis across the country doesn’t suit all. Don’t get me wrong, Jet2 has warts, as do all airlines.

I would go with a similar view to Whitemonk - Jet2/Tui top of the list, EZY next, BA if it suits you personally and McDonalds before Valdermort Airlines.

I find it extremely hard to believe they “hated” being at TUI. What’s to be hated about better Ts&Cs, better pay and opportunity for LH?

I agree with the other posters. Most of us have a “we’re all in this together” kinda attitude but the J2 brigade soon turn up to shout them down!

If you want to play that game I flew with a few ex J2 Captains in my FR days and they said they’d never go back - must be something wrong with them huh?

And if you want to play THAT game, I was at Britannia when far better T&C’s than the current TUI offering were the norm and saw sizeable numbers leave for EasyJet, Virgin, BA and the Middle East, never to return. Must be something wrong with them huh?

channel express fly flowers from Bournemouth to the islands, Britannia fly passengers around the globe,
its the mental aspect of a wanna be culture

No airlines’ T&C’s are as good as they were 15+ years ago chap.

I’m merely trying to understand certain J2 guy’s insecurities which become apparent whenever anybody says something positive about TUI.

Case in point I guess.

Or maybe it’s because J2 guys are soundly fed up with the derogatory comments directed to them and the company over the years, a number of which were from TUI pilots. Guess drinking all that kool- aid has provided a certain level of resilience.

And as for the “No airlines’ T&C’s are as good as they were 15+ years ago chap.” comment. There’s one where T&C’s are significantly better than they were 15 years ago ‘chap’.

Yet even this quote is misleading. There are pilots who are dual fleeted. Many were surprised that this option was so heavily bid for and over subscribed during the last bid round. Some pilots like it! The Scandinavia flying suits some people very well and there is an element of taxing from one base to another. But it is hardly a significant part of most pilots experience in Tui. You are quite simply wrong and as others have pointed out, question your motives. I wish Jet2 pilots well and I hope their terms and conditions improve quickly to rival those that Tui presently enjoy. We are all in this together.

Agreed, and no further comments from me. Good luck to everyone no matter what colour your fuselage.

FNF. The trick is to not spend your life in that hotel room, but get out and about.

That's just absolutely beautiful when you're young, dumb and full of :oh:​​​​​​

It's easy to get into that lifestyle but it doesn't appease to everyone.

Jet2 vs TUI vs shorthaul vs long haul vs could’a vs should’a vs would’a and then there’s the haters.
Whatever airline you work for (I’ve worked for more than half a dozen) there are always those who spend their time bitching about everyone but themselves. Thankfully there are some who are more self aware and appreciate what they have, spend some time reflecting and appreciate the simple things. It generally keeps getting better for those types, whoever they work for. Ts and Cs apart some people will never be happy. A group of people can convince themselves that the sky is green or that their airline isn’t going bust, it doesn’t alter the reality. I don’t get the jealousy, it’s a free market.
Im at TUI, flying long haul and happy. If the pay check goes into the bank on the 25th I’ll be even happier. It’s always been month to month in my head.......it’s all a bonus, nothing is a certainty. It’s going to end one day so enjoy the journey. I remember the good guys I’ve flown with in whatever airline under whatever Ts and Cs we had at the time. CV19, I Hope, will come to an end and we can all get back to flying, with a big smile on our face.

I was in Britannia too.

Exactly how many people, do you know who left Britannia to go to

1 easyjet
2 virgin

Britannia had a better pension than the current Tui one but my work life balance is much better now than it ever was in Britannia days.

I know 1 who left to go to easyJet for a quicker command and a basing not offered by Britannia. There are undoubtedly many more coming the other way. My Britannia colleague went for a virgin interview and they asked him what he was doing there, he stayed in Britannia/Tui in the end.

Britannia and Tui have their faults but it’s simply not realistic say that sizeable numbers leave for easyJet and virgin.

in the same way that Tui doesn’t get pilots from BA because their terms and conditions are seen as better.

whatdoesthisbuttondo

I’d disagree, plenty of people have left TUI and gone to Virgin in recent years. TUI’s highly average pension, lack of a proper salary scale (with top salaries a lot less), endless positioning on certain fleets and the threat of dual fleet saw many post-2012 joiners leave in the last couple of years. Mainly to BA, but they hire huge numbers of people compared to Virgin so that’s why you hear less of it.

Different story to those who joined pre 2012. Britannia is also a different story. But I’m talking about today.

TUI is still a good company, and better than J2 and Ryanair in my view. But I’d rather be at BA or VS. Some of the more senior TUI guys fail to understand this, but I think some of them forget what conditions new joiners are coming in on.

I’m with the orange lot, been there 16 years there must be a reason, oh yes I’m home with the family everyday, despite popular belief I can count on one hand how many 4 sector days I’ve done in the past 6 months and I’ve not know anyone leave here to go to TUi. I bid for what I want and generally get it. Yes we have a new bloke from Ryanair who used this crisis to try and force a Ryanair contract on us and the entire workforce including base management united and said no. I’m sure he will try again but after his efforts I cannot see how he can maintain his position.

Now the main point is it doesn’t matter what airline you work for. The best ones are the ones who pay you a competitive package, give you the base you want, be financially secure and give you the lifestyle that works best for you. Everyone is different. I have no interest in long haul, or flying back from Turkey touching down at my base at 6am, but that’s me and everyone is different.

Right now fingers crossed we all pull through together.

FNF. I suggest another career If you do not enjoy visiting places and the company of others. Aircrew are generally able to get on with colleagues professionally and socially even when few will ever make it to your xmas card list.