Think we’re still a few weeks away from the results. Someone dragged up last years results today and it made it look like this years results had been released. They haven’t.

Oh :mad:, that is quite possibly what I saw earlier in passing. Apologies for the false alarm..as for yammer :p

Well disappointing news then. Keeping on waiting and hoping for a better one. Cheers.

2018 PRIAM bid results are now out. I have no idea how it effects recruitment, although there do seem to be a lot of new short haul commands from seats which presumably need replacing with new entrant FOs. I think there are a fair few cadets waiting to come in although again, I don't know numbers.

As I have a vested interest (and I'm bored on a domestic nightstop with it teeming down outside) I've had a quick skim over the results directly affecting my status and consequently pilot recruitment. My count shows circa 100 Heathrow Airbus F/O's (including the LCY Fleet) leaving the RHS off to either Long Haul or taking their Command in 2018. This does not include Gatwick F/O's; of which there are also at least 20 or so. So I would hazard a guess of circa 120 F/O's requiring replacement, before you get into the argument of appropriate crewing levels.

Part time will also come into play but, just at a quick glance, I haven't seen all that much aspirational part time being granted. Right to request will push the figures up but obviously we're not party to those figures.

Interestingly, there have been a significant number of Freeze Waivers this year. If the recruitment policy now going forward is to only recruit low hours cadets from CTC (L3) and the rest then that trend will only continue. A glimmer of hope for those of us waiting to escape Short Haul.

Well Rex, correct me if I am wrong but I guess we should take that as good news. Something seems to be moving creating a vacuum to be replenished with new workforce.

60-odd FPP guys in the pipeline, and a stated intention for BA to further recruit white-tails directly from CTC. Plus easyJet seemingly being very well crewed in the RHS for summer ‘18, so there’ll likely be a surplus of cadets in the market.

If the training department can cope with the volume of sim sessions and line training sectors these guys will generate, sadly even us 320-rated swimmers have no chance. Non rated guys and gals, I’m afraid I think you’ve got more chance of platting fog.

I would LOVE LOVE LOVE to be proven wrong in the coming months...

The other unknown currently is what plans IAG have for the Monarch slots they are reportedly acquiring at LGW.

I believe LGW slots will be for Level ? Some good competition for NAS

The latest crumour here is that BA will keep them warm for 2 years or so, until LEVEL is able to set up in LGW.

But bad news for BA pilots, current and future.

Not if they're after a long haul command it's not.

In any case long haul low cost is a completely flawed business model. This has been proven time and time again. The 787 hasn’t magically overnight made long haul low cost viable, there’s much bigger factors at play here than -albeit reasonably significant - but ultimately marginal savings in fuel burn.

Level’s sole raison d’etre is to hurt Norwegian’s bottom line and to ultimately quicken the process of their demise at the same time as preventing others from entering the market. I would never regard it as some existential threat.

If you get the cost base low enough (ie s***e employee T&Cs) and target the correct market, routes etc it just might work. Ezy and FR will be watching with interest. Norwegian and Level are geared up very differently from Laker, People Express etc.

If Level prospers it will place more pressure on legacy contracts like BA offer. £100k a year for an F/O with aspirational fleet moves, pension, sick pay, private healthcare etc at a loco anyone? Any Norwegian 787 pilots care to comment? If Level eventually replace the 777 operation at lgw that’s a lot of BA job opportunities lost for good. And they are about to establish a foothold. If they beat off Norwegian I can’t see them disbanding the whole thing once they have got their teeth into pilot basic pay and other T&Cs in general. It is Alex Cruz’s wet dream to see off the Pay Point Scale and replace it with just the 3 basic F/O/SFO/CPT increments. If you want a Level long haul command on vastly reduced terms and no way back into BA then it’s all yours.

Whatever way it is dressed up this is bad news for BA pilots. I think it is very much an existential threat.

Interesting discussion point on LCLH On the Aero society website....

https://www.aerosociety.com/news/in-for-the-low-cost-long-haul/

BMRR the real fact is the revenue generated by the premium seats on the beach fleet far outweighs what BA/IAG could earn by sticking a load of Level A330’s onto the same routes and filling them up with cheap fares. The margins are far better (even after crew costs).

IAG aren’t in this for the consumer, there’s no reason why they would give up that section of the market and, in future, make less money operating the same routes in a low cost fashion. Make no mistake Level is all about making Norwegian bleed and getting rid of a permanent threat to their profits and return for shareholders. The only reason it even works is because IAG got some end of line A330’s for a ridiculously low price. Going forward that’s not going to be sustainable.

I get the paranoia but ultimately an airline (or airline group) wants to maximise its profits as much as possible (hence the battle with Norwegian in the first place). I very much doubt IAG are in the business of sacrificing profit just to target and decimate the T’s & C’s of a small portion of its workforce.

So, what happens to Level’s workforce once their task is complete?

NOR are doing a lot more than LGW, my understanding is they have a number of AOC applications around the globe, including South America.

In the mean time, quite happy to use and abuse Level for its loss leading seat prices in its attempt to unseat NOR! ;)

They will carry on as they are, as a niche operation. It’s not the future. LCLH never has been and never will be. Norwegian can have as many AOC applications as they like, the fact is that their business model depends totally on low oil prices and low interest rates. The moment either or both rise (and oil prices are creeping up slowly) they are dead in the water.

Re FW’s - a chunk of them are 767 FO’s who are currently frozen but need a new home next year when the fleet goes hence the waiver. Although I did note some Airbus FO’s also getting FW’s too. I suspect it’s likely to be a blip akin to the uber junior commands in 2016

There’s about 50 FW’s off the Airbus. That’s almost 10% of the entire fleet. By contrast there’s only about 14 767 FO’s moving and let’s face it that’s not a real Freeze Waiver anyway as you alluded to. The recruitment team have already admitted that future recruitment - certainly in the near future - will be sourced entirely from cadets (primarily from L3 by the looks of it). They could very easily have filled the long haul slots this year with DEP’s from the pool instead of waiving freezes. They didn’t. That is a big indication that if the training capacity allows it, the trend toward freeze waivers will continue in 2019 and 2020 when they have new Long Haul aircraft arriving and retirements to replace.

Ah ok apologies I hadn’t studied the results that closely. I thought it was a smaller number than that but you’re right, 50 is significant.

As for the 767 waivers, those that have joined in the last few years are still engagement and equipment frozen so although the equipment is going, the engagement means that the company could have chosen to direct rather than grant aspirational bids. So to me it feels like a proper freeze waiver. No idea what the future recruitment plans are but maybe you’re right. Who knows.