I can't believe people are arguing against experience.

Would you get on a flight knowing the drivers were going to be a 2000hr new captain and a 250hr FO?

I don't think the argument is "against experience" it is that within the context of the discussion, "experience" isn't the all encompassing panacea that some might suggest.

Would you get on a flight knowing the Captain had 18,500 hours and the F/O 2,760 hours?

Sure you would. Read all about it on page one.

I think the real people that are arguing against the importance of experience are people who own and finance airlines and inexperienced pilots.

I can understand both but the inexperienced pilots who take low paying jobs will soon realize that their salaries don't go up as they gain experience, they just get replaced.

The facts are that modern commercial jet aircraft are highly automated, highly reliable, and very easy to fly compared to older aircraft. They are designed to be so highly automated and redundant as to be largely "idiot proof." Modern flight training techniques are very good as well.

Yes experienced pilots in the cockpit are great to have but the airlines are realizing they're not necessary. The frequency of accidents with inexperienced pilots and modern aircraft is lower than historic rates of highly experienced pilots flying older aircraft. In other words, the aircraft are compensating for inexperience and there's no objective data to show that inexperienced pilots are less safe.

Pilots have become a commodity and are easily replaced with new pilots. The topic of this thread states that things must get worse before they get better and it's absolutely true. Basically high paying piloting jobs will become so rare that the dream or the promise will no longer be enough incentive for people to invest so much in the career. But I think the result will be that the profession becomes less prestigious and the airlines will simply follow the Chinese model of hiring and training kids out of school and paying them average wages (except they will do it far more efficiently). It will be a good job but not great....on par with a train operator. We may likely even see single pilot cockpits.

That's where I see the future heading and the professionals will move on to other careers...thus my handle ..."life after aviation"

Maybe some of us will find jobs flying older planes with "steam gauge" panels and cable flight controls or heaven forbid....propellers...that these younger generation of pilots would be incapable of handling safely.

How true. I have 61 types in my logbook. Of those there are only 3 where a MPL pilot could legally be on board as flight crew.:hmm:

The current system of student pays works because there is enough of an over supply that airlines can still choose the top performers. But the supply of "not quite good enough" graduates with 100,000 + pound debt increases every day. The word is already getting out and the supply of dreamers with the talent and dosh has to start drying up. The big schools have to keep the numbers up so that means lowering the entry standards. This is inevitable

Those previously mentioned top performers combined with what is generally considered as very robust training departments at both of the big LOCO's is keeping the current situation safe. However the bean counter executives always over reach. So the next "cost management initiative" is IMO absolutely going to be cutting back on the training standards.

Now we have the stage set for a pilot who can keep trying because he has the money if not the talent to get the initial qualification, gets hired because he has the ticket then goes to an airline for IOE run by a cut to the bone airline training office.

Sadly the only thing that causes real change in commercial aviation is a smoking hole with lots of dead bodies. Things will only change if it turns out that a more money than talent new FO who bought his way to the flight deck was a causal factor.

But things are not bad enough yet. I give it another 5 years before the chickens come home to roost.

For those who think people don't care, look at what politician mandated regulatory changes happened in the US after the Colgan Q 400 crash in Buffalo. Europe has not had its Colgan yet, but it is going to happen

A smoking hole with lots of dead bodies won't necessarily improve things for pilots. In fact quite the reverse is possible. When (not if) the first A-380 augers in and takes out 400 souls, if human error is the cause, the race will be on to perfect the pilot-less airliner. Indeed, if the fate of the MH aircraft is determined to have been a deliberate act (and I am certainly NOT implying that it was!), the race could be on soon to make it impossible to send an airline aircraft anywhere other than where it can be safely landed. Progressively, we will see pilots less in control, and ergo, less valued by the beancounters.
The only thing that will slow (but not halt) progress to pilot-less would be if said A-380 goes in as a result of a major design flaw in its automation. Yes, before you jump on me, I know all about the team of heroes who saved that Qantas A-380, and who could forget Capt Sullenberger? But automation failure was not the root cause of either of these events. So, had either event occurred in a pilot-less aircraft who knows if a co-ordinated team of ground control geeks would have or could have handled it? Probably not right now. But fast forward 20 to 25 years and it is quite possible that technology will allow remote control management of virtually any problem short of in-flight break-up.
Therefore, 20+ years from now things will have only got worse for pilots. The few good jobs will be on older airframes where experience may still be well regarded.

I don't know, I think that FO number low. Maybe if he was ex-military, or maybe if the majority of it came slogging out 6 or 10 legs a day to put 5 hours in his logbook otherwise I'd expect more if I was putting my family on that flight.

Sadly the only thing that causes real change in commercial aviation is a smoking hole with lots of dead bodies.

You mention this at the same time as speculating that airline bean counters will cut training standards which might lead to this. Even if it did, and it has in recent years in a rather major airline, it will be the XAA's who demand an improvement in training standards and not the internal bean counters. They have already run cost/risk assessment scenarios whereby they believe what size and number of 'mis-haps' they can sustain. It will all be down to the XAA's to demand change, but they seem to act retrospectively rather than proactively.

- experience is good - Nobody can argue against that.

Say we have a good candidate for the job - chances are he will make the selection grade for a qualified cadetship scheme. Think BA/LH.
The same candidate would probably also succeed on the self-improvement route.

Imho it all comes down to a good selection process - and equal pay for all who make the grade.


cheers,

I disagree with some of what lifeafteraviation says. Modern aircraft are not easier to operate than the last generation - automation and FBW modes are getting ever more complex and confusing, especially when they malfunction, and modern airframes are not designed to be hand flown so much, so their handling qualities are worse. Compound that with decreasing training, experience levels and currency in manual/raw data/visual flying because of company SOPs, plus harder and harder rostering and you have increasingly difficult operation, I'd say.

As for it being only managers that say experience levels are irrelevant, many experienced captains on here have repeatedly said that they ave seen many highly capable cadets and suspect experienced FOs. Experience is just one factor in a bundle of requirements to make competent pilots, and many of us over estimate the effect of experience alone.

I think it's a given we aren't refering to incompetent pilots in this thread. I agree no amount of experience will make up for outright incompetence.

But an inexperienced pilot does not equal an experienced pilot basic aptitude considered roughly equal. It does not even come close, and while it may work out ok on the typical day to day operation - when weather, fuel, ATC, technical or other issues arise I think you would see where experience becomes irreplaceable in a hurry.

But isn't this debate about whether things will get better for pilots in the future? As in recognition, job opportunities, terms and conditions?


I say "no" - as a lifetime career for anyone starting out today it's all downhill from here.

Mach E Avelli- you are right about it being all down hill from here. Pilots need to shift their mindset from being the salaried professional to being skilled workers who negotiate a good wage and fair promotion through collective bargaining. In the same way that train drivers do, they are actually able to negotiate very reasonable conditions. We are to, we have a strong hand to negotiate with.

Companies like ryr do need to be boycotted by experienced Pilots who have options elsewhere. They have failed to comply with simple European wide laws such as paying taxes, or allowing employees a trade union or even an employment contract. The British government has started to close the loopholes specifically exploited by this cowboy operation.

In the US the Regulator didn't demand change, public opinion did. The politicians saw they had to Do Something so they passed legislation that required the FAA to make an ATPL a requirement for acting as a crew member of an airliner. The FAA didn't want to change the rules, and the airlines sure as hell opposed change but they got over ruled.

The result is the supply of starry eyed 250 wannabes with SJS who are willing to work for peanuts is now totally and completely eliminated. This has already caused the "better" operators to poach crew from the crap operators who are now parking airplanes because they don't have enough pilots. Signing bonus's are now routine and better T & C 's for all, are inevitable.

But like I said earlier until an EU airline has it's "Colgan" nothing will change.......

Big pistons you absolutely have it right regarding the mechanics of how the whole thing develops Ts and Cs wise if the American model is introduced.

There always has to be some influx of cadets into the system. But not to the ratio we currently have in the UK (and Europe) it is extremely damaging to the crews and potential crews in the industry.

And while ever Joe Bloggs and hundreds of Joe Bloggs mates can get into the right hand seat of the upper tier of jobs with less than 300 hours experience and over 100k of debt, and then be given a job on the ts and cs at ryanair and ezy and the like. The whole thing will continue to regress as time moves on. Terms and conditions will continue to degrade and as sweeping across the board statement then the power of the relationship between employer and employee becomes imbalanced in the employers favour

Just a possible scenario for consideration. Joe Bloggs attends large fto is given the large fto school propoganda the ignore people on here like myself and others who are out of touch/bitter/failed etc etc (in actual fact I have a genuine interest in how the UK job market is continuing to evolve) Joe then pays lots of money gets into debt but manages to secure a right hand B737 or A320 job at either a blue Irish company or a slightly better quality orange UK company. The cadet has made it, and the long and winding path to TRE and big money is on as promised.

Then on this happy path something happens and Joe loses his job (unlikely but entirely possible)

now Joe is in exactly the same position as lots of other guys out of work with possible bags more experience than him and cannot get a foot in anywhere even though ryanair and ezy are recruiting straight from the ftos in numbers (Joe knows this because he was there in recent years he knows how many cadets are been pushed into the system from the bottom) now Joe sees why there is concern out there outside the bubble of the fto propoganda machine

The arguement about experience can be seen from two ways as is clearly identified on this thread, and there are possibly good and bad points to both in actual fact. Yes too much inexperience is obviously not good, not so much on a nice sunny morning hop to majorca and back but more a tricky night into bilbao in foul wx and problems on board and failures. Experience cannot be replaced in this case however to freshen a team of workforce up cadets are bright quick to learn enthusiastic and on the whole happy with their lot

i am very strongly of the opinion that a steady influx of cadets/apprentices/trainees is absolutely essential to any industry. The idea of having all experienced people is absurd and is not actually effective.

The problem we have in the UK is the ratio of cadets going straight into the better jobs in the better machines and with the better salaries, to what I would refer to as the old self improvers coming through all non integrated programs. This ratio has shifted considerably in the favour of the cadet specifically into ryr and ezy and also in other areas.

This ratio shift is not the only cause for the erosion in both the stature of the career as a whole and the ts and cs regression. But it is definately a very very large part of the reason.

The only winners in this are the employers and the ftos.

Colgan wasnt cadet related. But the following action was definately good for the employees. Across the board. Even for cadet Bloggs as he did actually get the right hand seat of the jet, as like everyone else he had the skills and the determination however it just took him a little longer time wise.

I enjoy flying with cadets but just dont think the current set up is doing ANY of the crews out there any favours. Its actually a wonderful set up if you are on or can somehow get on the payroll of one of the ftos, or if you are a performance manager or accountant at one of the airlines.

So true...

I appreciate your point. It's true that some old school pilots had a very difficult time transitioning to modern aircraft not because the complexity was so increased but because the implementation of systems integration was so different. Old school auto mechanics these days have similar issues. The transition from purely mechanical skills to complex systems operators. But those pilots were overly dependent on their flying skills IMO and the modern generation of electronics junkies may be more suited to operating computerized aircraft. Like teaching granddad to use his iPad.

I remember when the 757s came out and everybody talked about "glass cockpit experience" as if it was another holy grail box needed to be checked on the way to the big leagues. The facts were later discovered that transitioning from "steam gauges" to glass was statistically easier for pilots than the other way around and the inherent mechanical lag of older panels had actually forced pilots to learn better instrument flying skills (old study....don't ask me to look it up plz).

The point I am making is that modern systems management can be trained in the classroom and simulator far more effectively than the skills needed to fly older aircraft. Competence is certainly a mask for inexperience...not a substitute... but we all need to start somewhere.

The critical phases of flight, ie taxi, takeoff and landing are still manually controlled as ever they were, perhaps with the very occasional exception when low visibility procedures are in force for autoland. The same manual handling skills are therefore in evidence most days - and arguably more so on days when the wind is blowing as AS alluded to. Most professional airline pilots based in the UK would argue handling skills are still pretty important after the winter we've just had.

I've always felt the real skill though is in effective management, especially of failures, which have become increasingly complex with the advert of new aircraft.

All this while flying more sectors and hours than ever before.

Increasingly complex....maybe. The chance of such complex failures have become increasingly rare though. Still...they are academic and can be taught in a classroom or sim. Personally, I find the systems of modern aircraft much easier to manage... Maybe experience has made it easier, maybe it just easier.

Lifeafter, that's a fair point. I see a mixture amongst my colleagues, with some old boys not far from retirement who are very averse to the FMC and its related modes and a fairly open interpretation of SOPs, and new guys far too reliant on automatics, FMC and SOP. I consider myself somewhere in the middle, perhaps a little closer to the old school than the new, but the two philosophies are generally very distinct within the age groups and it is an effort to get the youngsters to think for themselves. Once up to speed, they are quite capable, but it does take a while of exposure on the line. Arguably, the old boys can be brought up to speed more quickly and cheaply as their issue is just one of habit - they have to understand the electronics in order to be rated and routinely checked, after all.

Personally, I find it hard to believe things will improve, at least by any considerable margin. There are just too many willing dreamers and the perception is that we have a cushy job. Ask not just passengers and public but any non-pilot in the industry and they all think we earn a fortune, have a simple job, lots of time off and spend the day posing and fending off young girls. Even the crewing and ops guys don't comprehend the crappy hours, the difficulty of an approach in bad conditions with a broken jet, the job insecurity (not just companies folding, but medical issues, fuel prices and so on), the studying and potential consequences of the six-monthly checks, the spy in the cab and so on. Even wannabes don't get it, or they wouldn't sign up to the FTOs. Until we can get others to understand all of what our job entails, not just the '60s glam image, then we won't see anything move in the right direction.

Until the :mad: hits the fan of course.....:ugh::rolleyes:

Cadets are so far up their own arses it actually makes them dangerous! I speak with knowledge......

Give me an FO with HANDLING experience please!!!!