A New Age In T’s & C’s
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 167
Likes: 0
From: Right hand seat of a 777
A New Age In T’s & C’s
With the pandemic taking a firm grip upon the industry and with Supply and Demand having never been this far apart. How do we think the new world of T’s and C’s are going to look?
Do we think that we could start to see the age of the minimum wage pilot, working for his/her £9 an hour?
How far do we think some airlines will try to push the boundaries?
Do we think that we could start to see the age of the minimum wage pilot, working for his/her £9 an hour?
How far do we think some airlines will try to push the boundaries?
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 919
Likes: 6
From: uk
I think if you factor in training debt, we reached minimum wage for new pilots ages ago. Didn't Flybe have a bottom rung of about 18k?
For what its worth and having seen 3 major industry setbacks in my career, we ain't seen nothing yet. There are so many factors going against the resurgence of mass air travel that a huge contraction seems inevitable. Just imagine if a COVID19 vaccine is not found in spite of the global effort to make one, ther is no guarantee that this will happen. SO for an indefinite period we are left with an industry hamstrung by distancing rules and public fear. Contraction and immediate reduction to T&C's are likely. But, again if we imagine this is the new normal, the supply and demand for pilots will equalise and T&C's will improve again. Scarcity of labour is the about the only reliable thing that improves pay. Problem is, it may takes years to come to pass. Pray for a vaccine.
For what its worth and having seen 3 major industry setbacks in my career, we ain't seen nothing yet. There are so many factors going against the resurgence of mass air travel that a huge contraction seems inevitable. Just imagine if a COVID19 vaccine is not found in spite of the global effort to make one, ther is no guarantee that this will happen. SO for an indefinite period we are left with an industry hamstrung by distancing rules and public fear. Contraction and immediate reduction to T&C's are likely. But, again if we imagine this is the new normal, the supply and demand for pilots will equalise and T&C's will improve again. Scarcity of labour is the about the only reliable thing that improves pay. Problem is, it may takes years to come to pass. Pray for a vaccine.
Joined: Nov 2019
Posts: 3
Likes: 0
From: UK
It’s supply and demand. In 3-5 years we may actually have a pilot shortage and they’ll improve, like everything. For the time being there could potentially be thousands of unemployed jet pilots come July. It’ll be interesting to see how training organisations fair over the new few years.
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 411
Likes: 16
From: At Home
There'll be a wide variety in T's & C's across various regions, but for the most part I expect history will repeat itself.
Post COVID there will be a lot of highly experienced crew fighting over the scraps of jobs that remain, including new LCC startups offering barely above a living wage... many will walk away from flying, but others will take whatever they can get.
Fast forward a few years and millions wasted on management bonuses & Salaries, Airlines will attempt to expand again. Short memories will have forgotten the reason why there were so many cheap Pilots in 2020/21 and the Recruitment departments will be puzzled as to why they can no longer find suitable candidates to pay for an overpriced A320 rating, unable to comprehend that their treatment of today's Pilots resulted in Tomorrow's Pilot opting to take a trade instead.
Post COVID there will be a lot of highly experienced crew fighting over the scraps of jobs that remain, including new LCC startups offering barely above a living wage... many will walk away from flying, but others will take whatever they can get.
Fast forward a few years and millions wasted on management bonuses & Salaries, Airlines will attempt to expand again. Short memories will have forgotten the reason why there were so many cheap Pilots in 2020/21 and the Recruitment departments will be puzzled as to why they can no longer find suitable candidates to pay for an overpriced A320 rating, unable to comprehend that their treatment of today's Pilots resulted in Tomorrow's Pilot opting to take a trade instead.
Joined: Jul 2000
Posts: 2,848
Likes: 40
From: Dubai - sand land.
Originally Posted by macdo
industry hamstrung by distancing rules and public fear.
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 108
Likes: 0
From: Planet no. 3
Inflation
One thing I'm worried about is my (reduced) wage not going as far as it did before. Inflation and even hyperinflation will become a serious issue at some point, though it's unclear how exactly it will pan out.
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 919
Likes: 6
From: uk
The question for the airlines is, how long before the 'new normal' attitude to our mortality takes to catch on and can they survive the transition. I have the unenviable task of doing the weekly shop during this lockdown. A few weeks ago people were reasonable sensible except for the insatiable desire for toilet roll. In the last 2 weeks there is definitely a change to a more fearful population jumping out of the way of anyone coming close to them in supermarkets. The message to be afraid has been learnt , no doubt helped along by our sensationalist media, I think it will take a lot of unlearning before mass air transport happens again.
Joined: Dec 2001
Posts: 471
Likes: 31
From: Europe
I agree with this. If you live in parts of the world that have mosquitos, the chance of picking up malaria is a part of normal day to day life including the fact that malaria kills many more people than covid19 has/does. And malaria has an effective medication to both prevent and cure, but millions can't afford to take it. Life goes on.
The question for the airlines is, how long before the 'new normal' attitude to our mortality takes to catch on and can they survive the transition. I have the unenviable task of doing the weekly shop during this lockdown. A few weeks ago people were reasonable sensible except for the insatiable desire for toilet roll. In the last 2 weeks there is definitely a change to a more fearful population jumping out of the way of anyone coming close to them in supermarkets. The message to be afraid has been learnt , no doubt helped along by our sensationalist media, I think it will take a lot of unlearning before mass air transport happens again.
The question for the airlines is, how long before the 'new normal' attitude to our mortality takes to catch on and can they survive the transition. I have the unenviable task of doing the weekly shop during this lockdown. A few weeks ago people were reasonable sensible except for the insatiable desire for toilet roll. In the last 2 weeks there is definitely a change to a more fearful population jumping out of the way of anyone coming close to them in supermarkets. The message to be afraid has been learnt , no doubt helped along by our sensationalist media, I think it will take a lot of unlearning before mass air transport happens again.
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 2,777
Likes: 0
From: uae
Travel will recovery but people's disposable income will dictate the rate of return to the new normal . 380/747 and even 773 could be parked for years . LCC will be the new norm. Legacy wages very very slow to recover , if ever .
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 225
Likes: 15
From: malta
Of course this is also just a prediction, but this crisis is not caused by economic factors, like the last one.
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 704
Likes: 0
From: Europe
Of course, there's always the slim possibility of an apocalyptic scenario in which everyone going near an airplane in the foreseeable future will have to wear a full Hazmat suit and stay in a state-monitored quarantine centre for 14 days after arrival, but the consequences of this to the entire world (not just to aviation!) would be so devastating that anything and everything will be done to prevent it from happening.
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 25
Likes: 1
From: UK, Paris, Peckham, New York
Minimum wage? We have already bettered that.
Piloting was probably the only industry whereby us mugs pay 100,000 to get a licence, then pay for a type rating, then pay to sit in the seat on some pay to fly scheme.
Piloting was probably the only industry whereby us mugs pay 100,000 to get a licence, then pay for a type rating, then pay to sit in the seat on some pay to fly scheme.
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 203
Likes: 0
From: Planet earth
Stay strong united
This is not the time to accept low pay or poor conditions. Join a union if you are not in one. You have to look at the total cost of pilots to the operation. Look at our % cost versus the safety of the operation. The unions have to negotiate hard not to let executives take advantage. It is the executives who need to take a pay cut, and work on performance pay. We are the ones out there, if we screw up, people can get hurt. If you pay peanuts you get monkeys!! If aviation wants to have professionals safely you have to pay. We have to stay strong and united.
Joined: Apr 2020
Posts: 28
Likes: 0
From: Borders
Pilot salaries have been ripe for a "correction" for years now. From the point of view of the bean counters, it is absurd to pay such high salaries for a job that is as aspirational as airline flying. The new normal will probably look like minimum wage FO positions, and train driver-esque salaries for captains, but without any of the myriad benefits that come from being a train driver.
Joined: Apr 2006
Posts: 182
Likes: 29
From: where I lay my hat
Hardly likely IMO. That might attract the Instagram dreamers for a few years, but no-one would stick with the career long term at significantly lower wages than we have now. The job is much more disruptive to home life than driving a train or most jobs, training is self funded to the tune of €150k, and there's a greater potential for a screw-up to cost hundreds of lives... and actually there is more natural strength for industrial action, because grounding airliners costs millions.
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 863
Likes: 0
From: Amantido
I can't understand why you guys keep saying that training is in the region of €130k+. I paid around a third of the sums you mention, I received some very good modular training and it did not prevent me from obtaining a job at a respectable cargo operator. It doesn't take that much to make this smart decision when deciding what path to take with regards to training.
Joined: Oct 2017
Posts: 170
Likes: 0
From: Palmas
I can't understand why you guys keep saying that training is in the region of €130k+. I paid around a third of the sums you mention, I received some very good modular training and it did not prevent me from obtaining a job at a respectable cargo operator. It doesn't take that much to make this smart decision when deciding what path to take with regards to training.
It sounds really nice during presentation until they withdraw your contract and your family's house goes to the market as collateral. Or you realize that you'll be living slightly above poverty for the next 6 years.
Ultimately it comes down to a smart training decision but ironically young cadets are nowhere near good decisions. Can't blame them too much when you get those insta-pilots are shilling "free" training at the schools.
Joined: Apr 2020
Posts: 28
Likes: 0
From: Borders
Hardly likely IMO. That might attract the Instagram dreamers for a few years, but no-one would stick with the career long term at significantly lower wages than we have now. The job is much more disruptive to home life than driving a train or most jobs, training is self funded to the tune of €150k, and there's a greater potential for a screw-up to cost hundreds of lives... and actually there is more natural strength for industrial action, because grounding airliners costs millions.