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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 7th May 2020, 12:49
  #601 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Samju View Post
Is it possible for the Aircraft manufacturers to modify the seating arrangement in AC to fit into social distancing norms, instead of leaving the middle seats empty. Like, completely removing the middle rows and creating separate aisle for each column so that there is less cross overs or touching between the pax. This will boost the confidence of travelling public who may otherwise avoid air travel
They already do. They call it first class. Not many people can afford it though.
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Old 7th May 2020, 13:30
  #602 (permalink)  
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Although at the moment IATA is not recommending social distancing on board aircraft ( middle seat off) it is thinking about it : from their latest relaae :
Calls for social distancing measures on aircraft would fundamentally shift the economics of aviation by slashing the maximum load factor to 62%. That is well below the average industry breakeven load factor of 77%..With fewer seats to sell, unit costs would rise sharply. Compared to 2019, air fares would need to go up dramatically—between 43% and 54% depending on the region—just to break even.
But with current average load factors on international flights ( not domestic) in the 10-15% range they will have to do something more dramatic to get people back in aircraft ... masks, disinfectants and higher air recycling rates do not seem to be enough to have the desired effect..



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Old 7th May 2020, 15:56
  #603 (permalink)  
 
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Air fares of pre-covid levels will in any case see 50-100% increase due to cost of additional arrangements at the airport/ in flight. Persons will travel only if necessary or if they can afford as was the case before the boom happened in this century. But this means that 30-50 % of the current fleet may operate in domestic sectors saving some Pilot jobs albeit with reduced hours and pay. An optimistic view.
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Old 8th May 2020, 04:06
  #604 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
Although at the moment IATA is not recommending social distancing on board aircraft ( middle seat off) it is thinking about it : from their latest relaae :


But with current average load factors on international flights ( not domestic) in the 10-15% range they will have to do something more dramatic to get people back in aircraft ... masks, disinfectants and higher air recycling rates do not seem to be enough to have the desired effect..
I would suggest that until various governments remove their individual travel restrictions and or health policies, there is very little than airlines can do to influence load factors on international flights.
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Old 8th May 2020, 05:23
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Travel restrictions will be eased shortly. Solutions to problem of gainful utilisation of empty seating can also be found.Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks. The airlines have to work for building up the confidence of travelers instead of crying for help or pretending helplessness.This virus is going to stay with us and solution based approach should be adopted as we have to accept that travel is not going to be same as before for a long time.
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Old 8th May 2020, 05:48
  #606 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Samju View Post
Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks. .


Having spent my formative years flying around wearing a well fitting mask all the time I'd politely suggest from a psychological POVthat would be a step too for many/most regular men or women off the streets.

There would also be some practical problems:, for example to avoid breathing recirculated air you couldn't use a regulator with an "airmix" setting that mixes cabin air with the bottled gas, so everything you breath would have to come out of the bottle/tank - given that have you given any thought to how much bottled air you'd need to carry, even for a short haul sector, for the passengers..the scuba divers amongst us will no doubt be able to give us a clue.

If your idea is that instead of bottled gas you re-plumb/reroute an element of the Bleed air/AC system to feed the masks then aside from the engineering issue and weight problems you end up back with the psychological issues of expecting Mrs Miggins, aged 80, or master Miggins, aged 3, being expected to mask up for the flight..

Last edited by wiggy; 8th May 2020 at 07:28.
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Old 8th May 2020, 06:21
  #607 (permalink)  
 
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Reference the French border closures..big press conference yesterday..unfortunately for air travel they continue..

France will keep its borders closed to all but essential travel until at least June 15th, the Interior Minister has announced.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20200507/bre...east-june-15th

Contrary to some opinions expressed control over one's own borders is still allowed even within the EU....
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Old 8th May 2020, 10:58
  #608 (permalink)  
 
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Travel restrictions will be eased shortly. Solutions to problem of gainful utilisation of empty seating can also be found
all the evidence is that border controls may increase and others remain until we have a vaccine. Do please tell us the source of your interesting observation. And who is going to make the portable oxygen systems for everyone to wear between the terminal and plugging into their seat system.....
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Old 8th May 2020, 11:25
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post


Having spent my formative years flying around wearing a well fitting mask all the time I'd politely suggest from a psychological POVthat would be a step too for many/most regular men or women off the streets.

There would also be some practical problems:, for example to avoid breathing recirculated air you couldn't use a regulator with an "airmix" setting that mixes cabin air with the bottled gas, so everything you breath would have to come out of the bottle/tank - given that have you given any thought to how much bottled air you'd need to carry, even for a short haul sector, for the passengers..the scuba divers amongst us will no doubt be able to give us a clue.

If your idea is that instead of bottled gas you re-plumb/reroute an element of the Bleed air/AC system to feed the masks then aside from the engineering issue and weight problems you end up back with the psychological issues of expecting Mrs Miggins, aged 80, or master Miggins, aged 3, being expected to mask up for the flight..
Not entirely sure advocating carrying undeclared DGR is a clever idea.
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Old 8th May 2020, 12:37
  #610 (permalink)  
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Opening borders is a prerequisite to see pax back on international flights , but it is not a guarantee that they will do so in great numbers.
The reopening of Business in Georgia (USA) last week end is showing that people are not really prepared to take risks .
from an Atlanta news outlet :
Georgia's Reopening Has Been 'A Disaster' For Some Retailers Desperate For Revenue “That was the worst-case scenario, especially with all the marketing we did,” Zelaya said. “The reopening weekend was a disaster. We had two customers all weekend."

source : https://www.bisnow.com
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Old 8th May 2020, 15:58
  #611 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Samju View Post
Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks.

On a 12 hour flight?

All the various proposals to make aircraft 'safe' are simply uneconomic in the present aviation industry model. The best you can hope for is a vaccine or herd immunity - either of which will possibly take up to 2 years.
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Old 9th May 2020, 09:11
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Should the government and other agencies arrange everything in a democracy? You can also appeal to your citizenship to keep the necessary distance between others.

If it's too busy on that train and you feel you can't keep the social distance apart, get off and take the next less crowded train just like you would on a bus. These transport companies already provide extra trains and buses, only to allow you as a traveler to keep your distance.

In an airplane it is different you can not compare with the above, here are the airlines that must ensure that you can always keep social distance from a fellow passenger, when boarding and disembarking, but also during the flight.
This will take a lot of inspiration from the airlines, but I am sure that a solution can be found to the satisfaction of those who want to take the plane. The solution has to come, because it is now a matter of surviving for the airlines, they absolutely cannot turn their heads or cry as little babies at the ice cream shop.

It's just a new world and everyone will have to put in an extra effort for a while before it can return to normal.
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Old 9th May 2020, 12:01
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Despite the lockdown, we've settled at 5000 cases per day and 600 deaths per day for almost a month. Removing the lockdown now or at any point will result in a rapid daily rise. This thing is too damn contagious. Look at this and ask yourself, even with contact tracing and testing, without a lockdown, how on earth will the number of cases reduce to below 5000 per day? I just can't see it. A vaccine is 12-18 months away, until then, what? lockdown?


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Old 9th May 2020, 12:27
  #614 (permalink)  
 
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Exactly. That was always the issue with entering lockdown without a credible exit plan beyond hoping for an effective vaccine and/ or treatment to be developed in an incredibly short timescale. Lockdown for the long term is simply not a feasible solution.
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Old 9th May 2020, 12:57
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At the beginning of April they were testing 10K people a day. Now they are testing around 100K people a day. The number of cases being found now likely reflects the number of people being tested rather than a static number of cases in the country.
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Old 9th May 2020, 13:27
  #616 (permalink)  
 
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That's a valid point but one I've not heard anyone from ourleadership mention.
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Old 9th May 2020, 14:24
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Originally Posted by IBE8720 View Post
Can someone explain to me why ONLY the airline industry, according to the experts on this site, will have to enforce social distancong rules?

I am sitting on a train sharing a cabin with 4 complete strangers.
To get to the train station, I took a bus from the airport. On the bus, 3 or 4 people at least rubbed shoulders with me moving around. On the plane, I had people sitting within arms length distance of other passengers the entire flight.
To get to the plane, we were loaded onto a bus, standing room only. And there would have had to be 30-40 people o that bus.

I totally agree - if Social Distancing is required then it is as required on public transport as it is on an airplane. Which is why I dont understand some of the other rules that have been brought in in London. We have seen pavements widened by taking away one lane of traffic, they are talking about more roads blocked off for pedestrians, longer red light waits, more cycle lanes etc - all of these are going to increase congestion for cars at precisely the time when you want people to swap from public transport to private vehicles to allow for social distancing.

There doesn't seem to be an awful lot of joined up thinking.
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Old 9th May 2020, 19:26
  #618 (permalink)  
 
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Never lose hope (after the dip)

Hello, my aviation friends!

Times are hard for aviators, and so for me! My type rating with a European airline was stopped right in the middle of the simulator part in March and I don't know what will happen next.

That's why I share this video. It shows the airlines with the highest revenue in the world from 1995 - 2020. You can clearly see some huge decreases (for example during the crisis in 2008), but you know what? After the dip there was always a huge spike up!

So don't lose hope for the following months/years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxbpZ4tvOqc&lc=UgymdFBbSp-zCu5xAN14AaABAg

Airlines with the highest revenue 1995 - 2020

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Old 12th May 2020, 03:54
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Boeing CEO predicts coronavirus pandemic will claim a major U.S. airline. He didn't name names

Dawn Gilbertson
USA TODAY

9:11 pm May 11, 2020

With anemic passenger counts and no signs travel will rebound quickly from the coronavirus pandemic, airlines are fighting for their financial lives.

They're looking everywhere but the couch cushions to raise badly needed cash and the threat looms of major layoffs this fall.

Boeing CEO David Calhoun thinks one major U.S. carrier won't survive.

Calhoun, who replaced the plane maker's longtime CEO in January in the wake of the prolonged 737 Max crisis, made the prediction to NBC "Today" co-anchor Savannah Guthrie.

Guthrie, in an interview scheduled to air on the network Tuesday, asked Calhoun if "there might be a major U.S. carrier that just has to go out of business?''

"Yes, most likely,'' Calhoun said.

He didn't name names or define "major" airline in the 22-second snippet NBC shared ahead of the full interview.

Calhoun told Guthrie passenger traffic levels will not be back to 100% by this fall, when payroll protection for employees under the CARES Act runs out. Airlines have said they will have to cut payroll costs to survive if business doesn't rebound by then.

"They won't even be back to 25 (%),'' Calhoun said. "Maybe by the end of the year we approach 50 (%). So there will definitely be adjustments that have to be made on the part of the airlines.''
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Old 13th May 2020, 07:16
  #620 (permalink)  
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did you watch it ? anything interesting ? in an interview to Richard quest in CNN Al Baker on Monday , CEO from Qatar declared it will take at least 3 years for Qatar airways to rebound How to weather the storm is the critical thing for any airline today .
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