CAE Pilot Demand Forecast
Thread Starter
CAE Pilot Demand Forecast
Supercharged PPRuNer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Doon the watter, a million miles from the sandpit.
Posts: 1,183
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Training service provider forecasts big requirement for pilot training . . .
In other news, the Pope is a catholic and bears do their business in the woods.
In other news, the Pope is a catholic and bears do their business in the woods.
Thread Starter
...and simulator manufacturer ? Boeing and Airbus also have forecasts out.
I'd like to see a study from a 100% objective source (no financial interest in seeing the data show one conclusion over another) dealing with this outside the USA. That data may be hard to get from so many sources.
Mike McGee's study was just for the USA but was a very good one:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD351.html
I'm just a cranky skeptic. :-)))
I'd like to see a study from a 100% objective source (no financial interest in seeing the data show one conclusion over another) dealing with this outside the USA. That data may be hard to get from so many sources.
Mike McGee's study was just for the USA but was a very good one:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD351.html
I'm just a cranky skeptic. :-)))
Last edited by bafanguy; 20th Jun 2017 at 19:16.
N4790P
Am certainly not seeing that in this part of the world, in fact (a/c type dependent) we are experiencing quite the reverse for suitably licensed, qualified and experienced trainers.
N4790P
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: last time I looked I was still here.
Posts: 4,507
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Way too many guys with loads of experience looking for pre retirement work?
Experience as a pilot is one thing; as a trainer is another. Equally, experience as a pilot does not mean being suitable for being an instructor. Pilots & instructors are 2 different animals. They can be trained to live in the same skin, but not always. Selection is crucial. We've all known instructors who were dreadful, but they either sneaked their way in the 'old boys club' for an ego trip or extra pocket money. Noting wrong with the latter for the good guys. Passing on that experience is often much needed. Airlines that rely upon an SOP bible and 2 year experienced SFI's might not always produce the best educated pilot force.
Experience as a pilot is one thing; as a trainer is another. Equally, experience as a pilot does not mean being suitable for being an instructor. Pilots & instructors are 2 different animals. They can be trained to live in the same skin, but not always. Selection is crucial. We've all known instructors who were dreadful, but they either sneaked their way in the 'old boys club' for an ego trip or extra pocket money. Noting wrong with the latter for the good guys. Passing on that experience is often much needed. Airlines that rely upon an SOP bible and 2 year experienced SFI's might not always produce the best educated pilot force.
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: chances are, not at home
Posts: 334
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
We've all known instructors who were dreadful
Not altogether surprising really
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Europe
Posts: 98
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Guys (especially wannabees) just forget about these studies. They are totally useless and heavily influenced by whoever is paying. They want your money, and aircraft manufacturers want airlines to buy aircrafts.
I went myself to a few FTOs when I wanted to become a pilot. I remember being in one of them with the boss, and he was referring to one of these studies too. He was saying that after 2 years I would be with an airline, no doubt, that they were placing a lot of students in airlines and the demand for pilots was raising. This was during the crisis, I did not believe a single word. But many others did. This FTO closed down a few months later.
Nobody can predict the direction of this industry. Now it is a good time for opportunities, but will it be tomorrow too? It just takes a change in fuel prices, an international conflict, something falling off the sky... (fingers crossed not), and it is a game changer. People before the 9/11 could not even imagine that the next 15 years were going to be probably the hardest for this job, and after those 15 years T/C have gone.... somewhere.
If you really want to be a pilot, take flying lessons. Read, ask. Win the lottery/save up/have wealthy parents. But for heaven's sake, do it no matter what people say. I started training in one of the worst times ever where airlines were disappearing, and I got a job before finishing training in the right hand seat with permanent contract and nice salary. 3 years after I have even moved from there and came home. I have paid my loan off and have bought a nice house and a decent car.
It works as well the other way around. If you are not sure, do not get influenced by silly studies "mmmh I am not sure but they will need a lot of pilots so it is a good investment". WRONG. You never know. Chances are that when you finish training, the situation will be different. Leave studies apart and really think. As I said, take flying lessons, do some research. Find out about T/Cs and what can go wrong. I have been very lucky myself, but I know people who started training when things were similar to nowadays and never reached the right hand seat, or they went bankrupt. This job is not what it used to be, so you REALLY need to love this, whatever studies says. Studies won't say that you will struggle with money for a few long years, that you will work your ass off during many months, that you will probably be away from family and friends more than you would fancy. It does not say that this job is tiring and not healthy, does not mention your checks every 6 months, the low stability unless you are in certain airlines... it does not even have the "glamour" that it had a few years ago! So most people will look at you as a poor glorified bus driver. Forget about your BA neighbor with a 2 milion house, forget about Ferraris and about nice hotels with beautiful ladies. This job nowadays is all about loving what you do, because all the rest is or is going to disappear.
So **** the studies, and just follow what you really want to do, because nobody knows the future. And most importantly, make sure that you really know the realities of this job, because uniforms and shiny jets (or lack of) are amazing for the first few months, but after the initial dream-shock it all goes away, and it becomes your job and the way you are earning your money/building your life.
I went myself to a few FTOs when I wanted to become a pilot. I remember being in one of them with the boss, and he was referring to one of these studies too. He was saying that after 2 years I would be with an airline, no doubt, that they were placing a lot of students in airlines and the demand for pilots was raising. This was during the crisis, I did not believe a single word. But many others did. This FTO closed down a few months later.
Nobody can predict the direction of this industry. Now it is a good time for opportunities, but will it be tomorrow too? It just takes a change in fuel prices, an international conflict, something falling off the sky... (fingers crossed not), and it is a game changer. People before the 9/11 could not even imagine that the next 15 years were going to be probably the hardest for this job, and after those 15 years T/C have gone.... somewhere.
If you really want to be a pilot, take flying lessons. Read, ask. Win the lottery/save up/have wealthy parents. But for heaven's sake, do it no matter what people say. I started training in one of the worst times ever where airlines were disappearing, and I got a job before finishing training in the right hand seat with permanent contract and nice salary. 3 years after I have even moved from there and came home. I have paid my loan off and have bought a nice house and a decent car.
It works as well the other way around. If you are not sure, do not get influenced by silly studies "mmmh I am not sure but they will need a lot of pilots so it is a good investment". WRONG. You never know. Chances are that when you finish training, the situation will be different. Leave studies apart and really think. As I said, take flying lessons, do some research. Find out about T/Cs and what can go wrong. I have been very lucky myself, but I know people who started training when things were similar to nowadays and never reached the right hand seat, or they went bankrupt. This job is not what it used to be, so you REALLY need to love this, whatever studies says. Studies won't say that you will struggle with money for a few long years, that you will work your ass off during many months, that you will probably be away from family and friends more than you would fancy. It does not say that this job is tiring and not healthy, does not mention your checks every 6 months, the low stability unless you are in certain airlines... it does not even have the "glamour" that it had a few years ago! So most people will look at you as a poor glorified bus driver. Forget about your BA neighbor with a 2 milion house, forget about Ferraris and about nice hotels with beautiful ladies. This job nowadays is all about loving what you do, because all the rest is or is going to disappear.
So **** the studies, and just follow what you really want to do, because nobody knows the future. And most importantly, make sure that you really know the realities of this job, because uniforms and shiny jets (or lack of) are amazing for the first few months, but after the initial dream-shock it all goes away, and it becomes your job and the way you are earning your money/building your life.
Join Date: Nov 1999
Posts: 2,312
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Well until you do the maths!
There are 196 countries in the world and whilst some of them don't figure at all in aviation terms, others are particularly dominant in this aspect. But keeping things simple, if you divide 255000 by 196 the number comes down to 1301
Divide that result by 10 (years) and the number comes down to 130.
That is Two and a half pilots per week per nation on a non-weighted average.
Not very exciting is it!
There are 196 countries in the world and whilst some of them don't figure at all in aviation terms, others are particularly dominant in this aspect. But keeping things simple, if you divide 255000 by 196 the number comes down to 1301
Divide that result by 10 (years) and the number comes down to 130.
That is Two and a half pilots per week per nation on a non-weighted average.
Not very exciting is it!
You are spot on rat 5 and not for the first time. Flying and instructing are very different skills.
Thread Starter
Likely a good bit of truth in that statement. But...i think the subject is worth examination since accurate data is important to the aviation industry for planning purposes. Getting that data is an issue in itself.
The problem, in my view, is finding an objective analyst. As soon as money enters the equation, motivation becomes questionable because...humans.
I'm not sure where 100% analytical objectivity is found. Until then, we only have what we have to go on.
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Europe
Posts: 98
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
All they have done in guessing, making things up and adding a few thousands to other numbers.
There is no 100% analytical objectivity, because making guesses in aviation in 10 years time is simply trying to be Nostradamus. It is difficult for companies to forecast what is going to happen next year, let alone 10! One of the issues airlines had with MPL students was that they had to commit to their recruitment 18 months before they were actually needed, which was impossible to predict, especially for a few airlines. So if they could not predict 18 months... 120...
For a training provider, it is impossible to know how many pilots are retiring in the next 10 years, how many will lose their licences, how many won't pass the sim rides. It is impossible to predict fuel prices in 10 years, catastrophic events, interest rates, competition issues...
So they are playing. However signs the study, be it CAE, COA or CUA. They are playing, and they are playing with people's dreams, hopes and money. Let's be clear about this.
