Originally Posted by
bafanguy
accurate data is important to the aviation industry for planning purposes.
You have answered yourself. Accurate data coming from made up numbers made from a training provider, of course. Very trustable.
All they have done in guessing, making things up and adding a few thousands to other numbers.
There is no 100% analytical objectivity, because making guesses in aviation in 10 years time is simply trying to be Nostradamus. It is difficult for companies to forecast what is going to happen next year, let alone 10! One of the issues airlines had with MPL students was that they had to commit to their recruitment 18 months before they were actually needed, which was impossible to predict, especially for a few airlines. So if they could not predict 18 months... 120...
For a training provider, it is impossible to know how many pilots are retiring in the next 10 years, how many will lose their licences, how many won't pass the sim rides. It is impossible to predict fuel prices in 10 years, catastrophic events, interest rates, competition issues...
So they are playing. However signs the study, be it CAE, COA or CUA. They are playing, and they are playing with people's dreams, hopes and money. Let's be clear about this.