Two Million Aviation Jobs by 2030
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Two Million Aviation Jobs by 2030
From Airliner World
"An ICAO study released in March estimate that demand for aviation personel will reach 2 million by the year 2030 and reveals a shortfall in training capacity in existing facilities, equivalent to 160,000 pilots, 360,000 maintenance personnel and 40,000 air traffic controllers.
The study projects the number of 'commercially operated aircraft' will jump from 61,833 in 2010 to 151,565 between 2010 and 2030 and estimates the number of annual departures will increase from around 26 million to almost 52 million in the same period.
This would "more than double the current number of aviation personnel worldwide.""
"An ICAO study released in March estimate that demand for aviation personel will reach 2 million by the year 2030 and reveals a shortfall in training capacity in existing facilities, equivalent to 160,000 pilots, 360,000 maintenance personnel and 40,000 air traffic controllers.
The study projects the number of 'commercially operated aircraft' will jump from 61,833 in 2010 to 151,565 between 2010 and 2030 and estimates the number of annual departures will increase from around 26 million to almost 52 million in the same period.
This would "more than double the current number of aviation personnel worldwide.""
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won't we be out of oil by then?
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I seem to recall that a few months ago Boeing were projecting a need for around another 1 million pilots and engineers worldwide over the next 20 years. It sounded great, until you got the calculator out:
It is until you start to strip away some of the numbers:
5 countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and the USA account for roughly 48% of the worlds population and that is broadly where the main expansion is forecast. Good news if you are a citizen of one of those countries looking to train for one of these careers in the next two decades. However take out a proportional 48% and that million is now down to 520,000.
Pilots and engineers. If you are interested in the former and assuming a rather generous even split, that whittles the figure down by a further 50% to 260,000.
Of the remaining 190 countries (some don't count, and some count more than others in aviation demographic terms,) but for the point of illustration share out the remaining number equally, and you are now down to an average of 1368
Over how many years? 20! That is about 68 a year. Not that stunning really, and these are optimistic figures from a party in whose commercial interest it is to talk up the market.
Of course 68 is no more accurate in any one domain, than a million is as a glitzy number. Rather like winning a million on the lottery being tempered by the fact that you have to share it with 14,706 other winners as well. Statistics are magical versatile things, and rather like beauty, are very much in the eye of the beholder.
5 countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and the USA account for roughly 48% of the worlds population and that is broadly where the main expansion is forecast. Good news if you are a citizen of one of those countries looking to train for one of these careers in the next two decades. However take out a proportional 48% and that million is now down to 520,000.
Pilots and engineers. If you are interested in the former and assuming a rather generous even split, that whittles the figure down by a further 50% to 260,000.
Of the remaining 190 countries (some don't count, and some count more than others in aviation demographic terms,) but for the point of illustration share out the remaining number equally, and you are now down to an average of 1368
Over how many years? 20! That is about 68 a year. Not that stunning really, and these are optimistic figures from a party in whose commercial interest it is to talk up the market.
Of course 68 is no more accurate in any one domain, than a million is as a glitzy number. Rather like winning a million on the lottery being tempered by the fact that you have to share it with 14,706 other winners as well. Statistics are magical versatile things, and rather like beauty, are very much in the eye of the beholder.
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Very well said indeed, Bealzebub
After years of going through various carriers, reading all the BS either A/C Manufacturers or IATA trying to sell, I have come to one and only conclusion. That the ploy is needed, to continue to "inspire" capable developed countries' young lads to sustain the Employers' market scenario.
Very unfortunately, the supply of aspired chaps will not run out. Especially from places like India and South America where their citizens do speak fluent enough English, to yet provide a constant flow of supply of cheap labour. Just wait for another decade or so, till the Chinese get their manufacturing chain of supply of aviation personnels ready!!
I still love the job, but not the money anymore. As soon as I have my last mortgage covered, hopefully in less than couple years from now, I'm out of here and there's one more vacancy to add to wonder number of 2 mil. Don't bother trying to shoot this poster, as I seriously have no objection to individual's choice of cheapening yourself with any P2F, self sponsored ratings and all. Enjoy your pursues, and it's always good to have some dreams to lead you on.
Edited for typo
After years of going through various carriers, reading all the BS either A/C Manufacturers or IATA trying to sell, I have come to one and only conclusion. That the ploy is needed, to continue to "inspire" capable developed countries' young lads to sustain the Employers' market scenario.
Very unfortunately, the supply of aspired chaps will not run out. Especially from places like India and South America where their citizens do speak fluent enough English, to yet provide a constant flow of supply of cheap labour. Just wait for another decade or so, till the Chinese get their manufacturing chain of supply of aviation personnels ready!!
I still love the job, but not the money anymore. As soon as I have my last mortgage covered, hopefully in less than couple years from now, I'm out of here and there's one more vacancy to add to wonder number of 2 mil. Don't bother trying to shoot this poster, as I seriously have no objection to individual's choice of cheapening yourself with any P2F, self sponsored ratings and all. Enjoy your pursues, and it's always good to have some dreams to lead you on.
Edited for typo
Last edited by break_break; 21st Apr 2011 at 06:27.
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The above "calculation" may sound disappointing but you cannot calculate like that:
1. If it's a Mio or 10% or 1000% of that nobody knows because we don't know the future.
2. Even if the Bricks and USA count for 50%, they will never be able to fill the places (well, the US are), so the traffic and hence the positions is filled by western countries (airlines and/or jobs)
3. 190 countried there are - but how many airlines/jobs in Tuvalu, Guadeloupe, Andorra?
4. If you look at present trends, it is not likely that countries without western education and standards can become source and home of reliable aviation systems. That's why these jobs are filled by western employees. Think of an "emiratization" of the future aviation. As soon as gaps are getting wider, local basings/commuting will become standard.
1. If it's a Mio or 10% or 1000% of that nobody knows because we don't know the future.
2. Even if the Bricks and USA count for 50%, they will never be able to fill the places (well, the US are), so the traffic and hence the positions is filled by western countries (airlines and/or jobs)
3. 190 countried there are - but how many airlines/jobs in Tuvalu, Guadeloupe, Andorra?
4. If you look at present trends, it is not likely that countries without western education and standards can become source and home of reliable aviation systems. That's why these jobs are filled by western employees. Think of an "emiratization" of the future aviation. As soon as gaps are getting wider, local basings/commuting will become standard.
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Dani,
i take your point however beazlebub is breaking down the figures, which are not accurate themselves, as no one can dictate the future the figures presented are generalisation, so likewise breaking them down can be done in general terms.
[pedant mode /on]
BTW its BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) not Bricks.
[/pedant mode off]
The prinicpality of Andorra as you rightly point out would not have a huge demand for Airline pilots within its boundaries, however, a country like India or China, the UK, the USA etc would have a greater demand than say Zambia, Botswana, Guyana or say Switzerland.
i take your point however beazlebub is breaking down the figures, which are not accurate themselves, as no one can dictate the future the figures presented are generalisation, so likewise breaking them down can be done in general terms.
[pedant mode /on]
BTW its BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) not Bricks.
[/pedant mode off]
The prinicpality of Andorra as you rightly point out would not have a huge demand for Airline pilots within its boundaries, however, a country like India or China, the UK, the USA etc would have a greater demand than say Zambia, Botswana, Guyana or say Switzerland.
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It's BRICK
some include Korea as one of them. Hyundai and Kia are bigger than Embraer ;-)
Switzerland doesn't fit into your picture of African states. It is an aviation super power and has more airline pilots than Italy, Austria, Belgium, or all of the Scandinavian countries combined.
Dani
(working for a Portuguese airline)
some include Korea as one of them. Hyundai and Kia are bigger than Embraer ;-)
Switzerland doesn't fit into your picture of African states. It is an aviation super power and has more airline pilots than Italy, Austria, Belgium, or all of the Scandinavian countries combined.
Dani
(working for a Portuguese airline)
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this is closer of the reality, when fuel will be gone!
how can you predict the future in 20 years when they are unable to predict a worldwide crisis coming???
and the worse, nothing has been done to prevent another crisis which will be in 2018, or in 6 months.
when you see at the USA printing money like crazy, I would be more worry about tomorrow, than in 20 years. oh well!
"An ICAO study released in March estimate that demand for aviation personel will reach 200 by the year 2030 and reveals a shortfall in training capacity in existing facilities, equivalent to 16 pilots, 36 maintenance personnel and 40 air traffic controllers.
The study projects the number of 'commercially operated aircraft' will jump from 61 in 2010 to 151 between 2010 and 2030 and estimates the number of annual departures will increase from around 26 to almost 52 in the same period.
This would "more than double the current number of aviation personnel worldwide."
how can you predict the future in 20 years when they are unable to predict a worldwide crisis coming???
and the worse, nothing has been done to prevent another crisis which will be in 2018, or in 6 months.
when you see at the USA printing money like crazy, I would be more worry about tomorrow, than in 20 years. oh well!
"An ICAO study released in March estimate that demand for aviation personel will reach 200 by the year 2030 and reveals a shortfall in training capacity in existing facilities, equivalent to 16 pilots, 36 maintenance personnel and 40 air traffic controllers.
The study projects the number of 'commercially operated aircraft' will jump from 61 in 2010 to 151 between 2010 and 2030 and estimates the number of annual departures will increase from around 26 to almost 52 in the same period.
This would "more than double the current number of aviation personnel worldwide."
Last edited by captainsuperstorm; 22nd Apr 2011 at 07:21.
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It's BRICK
some include Korea as one of them. Hyundai and Kia are bigger than Embraer ;-)
some include Korea as one of them. Hyundai and Kia are bigger than Embraer ;-)
Negative. Korea is part of the N-11.
The BRICs economies do seem
to be ahead of many other developing economies, both
large and small.
We also present a detailed study of the prospects for
another set of developing countries, a group we call the
N-11.the Next Eleven. Of them, only Mexico and
perhaps Korea have the capacity to become as important
globally as the BRICs
the BRICs stand out relative to the bulk
of these other candidates, in terms of the potential to be a
major economic force. Of the other countries we look at,
only Mexico and perhaps Korea have the potential to rival
the BRICs.economies that we excluded initially because
we view them as already more developed.
We call this larger developing-country set the Next
Eleven (N-11), though whether they will .emerge. is still
an open question for many. This group shows broad
representation by region and includes Bangladesh, Egypt,
Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan,
Philippines, Turkey, Vietnam.
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No. BRICK is as correct as BRIC.
You may know that Bric is not an official organization. It's just a standing expression. Somebody found it cool so the expression stayed.
Source Wikipedia
You may or may not find several other terms or thesis or expression. You cannot say one is right or wrong. There is no patent on it and no physical law that proves it.
Cheers,
Dani
You may know that Bric is not an official organization. It's just a standing expression. Somebody found it cool so the expression stayed.
Also, because of the popularity of the Goldman Sachs thesis "BRIC", this term has sometimes been extended whereby "BRICK"[37][38] (K for South Korea), "BRIMC"[39][40] (M for Mexico), "BRICA" (GCC Arab countries – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates)[41] and "BRICET" (including Eastern Europe and Turkey)[42] have become more generic marketing terms to refer to these emerging markets.
You may or may not find several other terms or thesis or expression. You cannot say one is right or wrong. There is no patent on it and no physical law that proves it.
Cheers,
Dani
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won't we be out of oil by then?
