Pilotless A/C
 

Hi.. It bothers me that on every forum that i visit that has to do with aviation i see those threads about how surplus pilots are and that they are a dying breed.

i am a student pilot myself and hope for many years of flying in my life as a pilot, but somehow these coversations make me a little uncomfortable about the future.

what do you think from a professional viewpoint about the future of the Pilot profession?

I don´t see computers taking over in some time but still it would bee nice to hear some comments on this :)

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

David
I'm an experienced airline captain, now working in the Unmanned Air Vehicle field. UAVs are here to stay and they are probably the most dynamic part of the aerospace industry at the moment. That being said, they will become a part of the picture, especially in the "3D" sector - dirty, dangerous and dull - but will not feature largely in the air transport world where people still understand that counter-intuitive judgements that a computer cannot make are sometimes necessary to avert disaster. I would guess - and it's only a guess - that the requirement for military combat pilots may decrease in the next generation but we forget at our peril that there is an awful lot more to aviation than engineering.
Good luck with your aspirations.

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

Well said Pirate. Short and to the point.

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I agree. You only have to look at the aircraft coming into service (A380, B787 etc) to see that 2-man crews will be required to fly these aircraft for decades to come. As to the way ahead in civil aviation, I would hazard a guess that some form of freight ac (although to date freight ac have been derivatives of airliners) would be the first unmanned commercial aeroplanes. Only when the public is comfortable with the practice would they get into an unmanned airliner.

I think those born today would have the option of a career as a pilot, but maybe not their children. It is one of those technology-dependent jobs that exist for a century or two and then become obsolete. Lucky we were born when we were.

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

I was involved recently with UAV integration into civil airspace , and the FAA position on this is that UAV should fly alonside civil aircraft and follow IFR rules on IFR flight plans.
The procedures are getting in place ( see access 5 project from NASA/FAA ) but the hardware is not yet mature. The global hawks cross the Atlantic every week but it is not yet that convincing for transporting precious goods and humans.

But I foresee in not too distant future ( 5-10 years ) that some "Dull "civil applications like crop spraying , helicopter logging work, watching pipelines or electrical powerlines, or report / relay sporting events,etc. would slowly find they way into specified UAVs. Gallileo with its better precision/reliability/integrity than GPS will also open new ways.

Watching some time ago the (rather bad) "Stealth" movie featuring an UAV, I guess that sort is too far off ( why put a seat / cockpit on it anyway ? ) but on that movie the UAV tanker was a good example of what they soon probably will do.

As a civil pilot you still have some carreer in front of you , but if fuel prices soar badly due shortage or otherwise, the first one to go will be the small ones, as the A380s and the like are (much) more fuel friendly per Tkm or PK .

So try to get to A380 ,or 340/787/ 747/777 if you can , the future is there I guess. for quite some time still, at least the next 30 years, with humans at the controls.

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

Good afternoon this is your electronic captain speaking . Welcome to pilotless jet 1 where nothing can go wrong... go wrong ...go wrong...........!
SLF wont stand for that so there will, in your lifetime always be pilots in planes. You will however probably be called systems managers and paid as such!!

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

Crop spraying and heli logging to me are two of the last candidates for a UAV application. Commercial airway-based IFR would be a hell of a lot easier to program than a hover 100' above a mountain forest with gusty winds and a longline. But that's just my uninformed opinion

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Eurofighter and JSF/F-35 are very likely going to be the last military manned aircraft built by BAE Systems. The military future is, as Pirate said, in unmanned aircraft. Human piloted commercial airliners are, however, here to stay for a long time.

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

I would imagine before pilotless a/c hardware and software techno would first be applied to road vehicles. Having said that, as of this era who's been on a big dipper and other fun fair rides that are software controlled?

DO'L

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

If pilotless fixedwings are thought provoking , just imagine a pilotless R22 helicopter crop sprayer .... :ooh:

I wouldn't fancy being in the vicinity of any pilotless helicopter, come to think of it... anyone heard of one yet?

BW

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

How long did it take to get rid of airliner Flight Engineer profession?

I suppose that the First Officer would be dumped some time before the Captain. After all, the planes were invented to be flown by 1 pilot, and there have always been 1 pilot planes.

The 1 pilot planes are now subject to limitations - number of passengers and what else... Who could press to get rid of those limits?

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

I cannot see "pilotless" airliners anywhere on the near horizon. Sure the technology exists - albeit in its relative infancy - but real human pilots (or maybe "flight managers") will be demanded by Joe Public.

And heaven help us all when we allow software/firmware 100% control; the moment the "bad guys" start hacking into that it will make the WTC attacks seem like a picnic :-(

OC

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

Pilotless aircraft and electronic captains ? Please no. It's bad enough today waiting for the little old lady on her way to see her grandkids as she tries to work out which seat is 42K. There's no way she'll be able to locate 101010K...

:E

I/C

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

How many driverless trains are there in the world?... I think that sums up the chances for pilotless planes... If the computer on the DLR fries then it just comes to a stop and everyone walks away.

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

I too think it unlikely that we'll see fully automated passenger transport within the next generation of pilots or aircraft... but there is a distinction between fully automated aircraft and remotely controlled aircraft... the idea of launching 300 pax into the sky then going off for lunch is highly unlikely.... however...those of us here in Afghanistan who regularly see military UAV's taxiing out ahead of us, being controlled by someone in California, can maybe visualise a passenger jet being similarly controlled...
Oh...and if anyone controlling the things from California is reading this...could you PLEEEEEZE taxi a bit faster ? :ok:

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I dont get the purpouse of having the pilots on the ground? :confused:, Not in an civil airliner anyway

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

Would like to see a pilotless aircraft with 235 people on board get into CFU on a !!!!ty day!

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ok.. But if a Pilot is needed i still want him or her to be ON the aircraft not on the ground :)

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

For the same reason they are not in UAV's ? :}

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

"For the same reason they are not in UAV's ?"

Hehe you mean that the pilots don´t get killed when their A/C been shot down :p

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

That's easy. They take up space, the two of them weigh as much as two more SLF, they need two more hotel rooms at the other end...

... And what stockholder wants to pay them for playing computer games? :uhoh:

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

I noticed someone mentioned that we don't have driverless trains. The reason for this (and also why no public transport systems are driverless) is because the only way they would be safe is if you could factor out any human element. By human element this is referring not to pilots but the people who maintain (and produce) the aircraft, trains, buses etc. Engineers (like pilots) are human and will make mistakes. These instances require the ability of out of the box thinking from the operator of the vehicle, especially if mistakes are made in relation to the computer responsible controlling the vehicle. Only when maintenance becomes either fool proof or automated will unmanned transport have the possibility of being implemented on a major scale.

On a personal note with a pilotless flight deck the argument for could someone hack into the computers of all the planes flying over the US, for example, and cause mass devestation is a strong one. If the security agencies can't keep their systems 100% secure there is no hope for airliners.

With regard to having pilotless military aircraft. This I am completely against. I do not believe we should ever have automated military as this simply removes the cost of war.

However, the disscussion of will there be a pilot career, due to it being replaced by a computer is not the more immeadiate case. The question you should be asking is "will there be a pilot career, due to there not being any fuel to run the aircraft on?". This because oil will run out well within my lifetime whereas the chances of pilotless aircraft in my lifetime is pretty remote.

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judging by some of the actions Ive seen, I thought we already had some pilotless aircraft!

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in military aviation i'm certain that the unmanned aircrafts will be a very big part of the picture but in civil aviation there's no way

if people hesitate flying just because an aircraft has props instead of jet engines i doubt they will fly in an aircraft conveyed by computers

and if i recall it correctly there was a test with an unmanned A320 or something, the famous clip on the net where it decends after a touch and go and flies touching tree-tops before crashing

also what if someone decides to shut down the GPS system? what if the analogue instruments get malfunctioned and starts feeding bad data to the computer and things go bad, what if someone jams signals when the aircraft is on a short final? there are no pilots onboard to visually discern the real runway from the jammed frequency, radar altimeters can be jammed easily and barometers break

i don't see a future in unmanned civil aviation within a century

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

Anything relying on total "remote control" is definitely at risk, for the reasons Ozcan mentions.

But how about a scenario where - like the much quoted DLR - there's a "driver" on board, who only overrides if there's something serious amiss?

I'm sure if we can trust systems to fly right up to the flare, then there's enroute stuff that can be automated.

The counter argument, is, I guess, that having crew on board won't save money so why bother with all the expense of developing such a system. The only then, I can think of, is if it's safer?

(And now, with no supporting facts either way, I disappear in a puff of badly thought through hypothesis. :) )

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

Think really hard about the following list of parameters for real aviation, Heavy and Light. If you will understand how painful it is (in a non-MIL environment) to pay for testing, repair, and replacement of very expensive complex systems components, time and time and time again, then likely you will conclude that inexpensive, interchangeable and amazingly adaptable crew persons will be desirable in the process for a long while to come.

Initial Manufacturing Cost,
Initial Capability,
Initial Operating cost,
Initial Reliability,
Initial Maintenance Cost
10 yrs later
Mid-life Capability,
Mid-life Operating cost,
Mid-life Reliability,
Mid-life Maintenance Cost
-Parts & skills availability
25-50 years later
End-of-life Capability
End-of-life Operating cost,
End-of-life Reliability,
End-of-life Maintenance Cost
-Parts & skills availability

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

I agree, more and more automation will come, I don't see a scenario with no pilot at all on airliners. But certainly one will be able to do the job in the future. "Beancounter's heaven." only half the pilots to pay. :uhoh:

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Problem with one-pilot vs five or ten thousand multiple-redundant onboard computer thingies is: "who wins the coin toss when flesh and silicon seriously disagree?".

At present, the toss favors the TWO guys/gals with the big watches.
With same rules, but only ONE person (i.e. no redundancy for the various failings to which the flesh is prone), most analyses would favor the (we're assuming they're "well-engineered and thought out", which may be the case 20 years from now) boxes.

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Hmm just great.. in the Paper today they say that Pilots are not needed anymore :confused: , whats up with all the fuzz about pilots these days

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Sorry folks, i'm an ATC type person and I'm just trying to get my head round this.....
.
After Take off, how much can the FMS do of your work anyway? Can the autopilot take you direct to destination and even land the damn thing if autoland equipped?

BBB

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

Well, take the example of the Helios Boeing 737. When the pilots were stupid enough to take off with outflow valves wide open, try to turn off the decompression warning instead of putting on oxygen masks and pass out as a consequence, the autopilot did what it was supposed to do if the pilots were playing cards etc. and not touching controls: it went on climbing to cruise level, flew to destination - and, when no one tried to land the plane, circled on its own around the last waypoint until it ran out of fuel.

Basically, I suppose that had pressurization worked, the autipilot would have done the same if the pilots, instead of fainting, would have got up, locked the empty cockpit and spent time in the cabin until reaching the hold pattern.

However, this is what actually was done by the autopilot of this (rather old) plane. What could an autopilot possibly be made to do?

Re: Pilotless A/C
 

But what if the autopilot would have been configured to go further than just the holding facility. I know thats not the done thing but isn't it conceiveable that a crew could program the system so that as soon as the aircraft takes off, the plane will fly itself to destination and make an approach?

That sounds fairly achieveable to me, so surely there must be limitations to the systems?

BBB

"That sounds fairly achieveable to me, so surely there must be limitations to the systems?"

Yes. For example, the aircraft arrives in the holding pattern, sets up for an approach, and the runway is blocked. How do ATC manage the stack?

Or, there is an on-board medical emergency requiring the aircraft to divert immediately, or a fire, or a disruptive passenger endangering the aircraft from within the cabin.

In cases like these, who re-programmes the aircraft? ATC? Ops? The FA? Or the senior passenger?

Airlines need a pilot to blame. In the event of an accident, a pilot who has made a mistake can be given the blame, be fired, the airline announces it in the media, gets a new pilot and carries on. If there's no pilot in the new, much publicised, all singing, all dancing "Blunderbus" and suddenly there's an accident because something went wrong with the aircraft, what does the airline do? Sell the fleet? :E

Shy Torque - I get your point, in fact I entirely agree with it! But your missing mine.

I was interested to know that if the crew configured the FMS on the ground, then after take-off, they pressed the autopilot would it fly to destination and land? What I meant by limitations was any selection of flap or landing gear issues?

BBB

Not in current aircraft. All gear/flap/slat selections are still entirely manual, not automatic. Also, an airplane flying in VNAV will climb to the pre-set altitude, but will not start a descent unless the pilot has manually entered a lower altitude in the mode control panel. Oh, and autobrakes need to be set manually. And thrust reverse is manual. And the approach mode needs to be selected manually. And the go-around altitude. And the speedbrakes need to be armed. And...

Of course one could automate all of that quite easily, but then we'll still not be able to have a pilotless passenger airplane, since take-off, weather avoidance (clouds, turbulence), TCAS manoeuvring (even controller-less ATC might not be able to avoid traffic conflicts, I guess), taxiing, and engine start-up need to be automated too. And at that stage we haven't even begun to consider the simplest of emergency scenario's.

No, I think I'll let someone more adventurous than me try that first automated flight. ;)

Xetro V..... Thank you for your reply, that is the sort of understanding I was trying to grasp! I'm sure that even the most cost-cutting technology-advanced company would find it hard to commision a pilotless aircraft in the commercial world. Even in ATC, boffins bark on about automating the whole system, but like in your situation what about emergencies? weather avoidance etc? I think its safe to say, Not in our life time!

Thanks again
BBB

Heh. I've printed this thread and will include it in a 'time capsule' being put in the footings of a new building my firm is doing work on. Estimated lifespan of the building is about 75 yrs, so it should make interesting reading (unless a UAV crashes and totals the structure in the meantime!)
:rolleyes:

RJM - Ha ha very funny. Some of us are actually learning things from this thread! Aircraft/Pilot/UAV limitations etc There are similiar questions being addressed in the ATC world right now!
.
.
I have a further question:- If the FMS was programmed from the holding facility to make a an approach at an airfield, how would it cope with changing from FL to Alt on the altitimeter?
BBB

Pilotless aircraft?
There are a few steps along the way and we may see one or two before too long.
First is the ability to operate unmanned aircraft in controlled airspace, which is being worked quite hard. See-and-avoid and failure tolerance are the issues, but I would be surprised not to see this within five years.
Next, what if someone takes the brains and electric actuators out of a UAV and makes a RoboCirrus, a FBW private airplane? Might be appealing because it would be simple to fly, and electronics and electric power are getting steadily cheaper and mechanical controls are not. Cost of ownership might be competitive.
Now, add elements one and two and add a big red button on the panel, for use in the event of emergency - pilot incapacitation, mechanical problems or operational issues that have put the pilot out of his/her skill level. And an XM datalink so that there is a human on the ground supervising the recovery to nearest airport. OnStar for aircraft!
And maybe next this becomes an amber button, for contingencies - it's turned foggy at my destination but I really don't want to divert.
And at some point along the way, FedEx adopts an unmanned cargo aircraft to replace its Caravans.

Hmmm.. freighters with no pilots in only maybe 10yrs ahead sounds pretty soon to me, too soon.. Like Captain Pirate said i think it will take a long time before they replace pilots! Why the hurry? all aviation anthusiasts nightmare must be when there are only computers left. Or? private planes without need for a pilot? i dont see the benefit really, sounds very very expensive:confused: