SAAB's new turboprop
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Looking at the article below 2,500 new TP's will be needed and there is also a comparison between A & B.
Proud to fly a Turboprop: Q400 vs ATR72 « The Flying Engineer
Proud to fly a Turboprop: Q400 vs ATR72 « The Flying Engineer
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excellent link jacx123!!
the fact they are both predicting a lot more demand still doesn't open the door to SAAB as they will have to meet the startup costs etc as previously discussed ad infinitum in this thread
the fact they are both predicting a lot more demand still doesn't open the door to SAAB as they will have to meet the startup costs etc as previously discussed ad infinitum in this thread
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Hullo Harry,
Is your point that you think production start up costs are a major obstacle for Saab, should they re-commence an STC derivative SF34 or SB2000 or are you saying something else entirely?
If you are talking about development and production start up costs for an all new larger aircraft, as some are suggesting, then I think I agree with you unless the risk was shared with a number of partners and history has shown that such partnerships are fraught with problems, such as Saab's original partnership with Fairchild in producing the SF34.
Is your point that you think production start up costs are a major obstacle for Saab, should they re-commence an STC derivative SF34 or SB2000 or are you saying something else entirely?
If you are talking about development and production start up costs for an all new larger aircraft, as some are suggesting, then I think I agree with you unless the risk was shared with a number of partners and history has shown that such partnerships are fraught with problems, such as Saab's original partnership with Fairchild in producing the SF34.
Last edited by THE ORACLE; 3rd Jul 2012 at 09:29.
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Oracle
I don't want to repeat the whole thread but to summarise - my position is:-
1. Even restarting production of any airliner is not low cost
2. Modifying or upgrading an old design is high cost
3. designing a new aircraft is immensely costly
4. the SAAB design was a good one but the operators at the bottom (<70 seat) end of the market cannot afford anything other than used aircraft in any numbers
5. even the current TP builders are struggling to make a consistent profit
thus the idea of Saab going back into production is unlikely - a pity but there you go - UNLESS they are relocated to China or similar where the profit motive is less pressing
I don't want to repeat the whole thread but to summarise - my position is:-
1. Even restarting production of any airliner is not low cost
2. Modifying or upgrading an old design is high cost
3. designing a new aircraft is immensely costly
4. the SAAB design was a good one but the operators at the bottom (<70 seat) end of the market cannot afford anything other than used aircraft in any numbers
5. even the current TP builders are struggling to make a consistent profit
thus the idea of Saab going back into production is unlikely - a pity but there you go - UNLESS they are relocated to China or similar where the profit motive is less pressing
Last edited by Heathrow Harry; 4th Jul 2012 at 08:35.
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I don't think you are right HH. A modern turboprop with 70 seats or more seats, good runway performance and plenty of poke is exactly what the airlines will buy. Jets are good but nothing can really match the kg/seat/nm fuel burn of a turboprop - especially if the sector times are similar. With current (and predicted) fuel costs, there is a large hole in the market.
Last edited by Piltdown Man; 4th Jul 2012 at 08:44.
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PM,
The aircraft you describe is the Q400 which has sold in respectable numbers but costs $22m and can only be afforded by relatively well-healed carriers or those enjoying sovereign support.
Heathrow Harry was specifically discussing aircraft with <70 seats and, in general, this thread has discussed the demand for aircraft to replace the many 30 - 50 seats tps which are now getting very old. That there is a demand in this segment is not in doubt, it is just the inability of the carriers in the segment to afford anything other than very cheap used equipment which is the problem.
The aircraft you describe is the Q400 which has sold in respectable numbers but costs $22m and can only be afforded by relatively well-healed carriers or those enjoying sovereign support.
Heathrow Harry was specifically discussing aircraft with <70 seats and, in general, this thread has discussed the demand for aircraft to replace the many 30 - 50 seats tps which are now getting very old. That there is a demand in this segment is not in doubt, it is just the inability of the carriers in the segment to afford anything other than very cheap used equipment which is the problem.
Last edited by Torquelink; 4th Jul 2012 at 09:42.
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precisely Torquelink
it's a matter of financial capability and few airlines operating on thin routes can generate significant income - evern decent airlines such as AirNorth in Darwin operate Brasilias and Metros on most routes
it's a matter of financial capability and few airlines operating on thin routes can generate significant income - evern decent airlines such as AirNorth in Darwin operate Brasilias and Metros on most routes
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HH:
Kindly share some of your wisdom regarding your above 1-5 points, backed up with factual numbers, since it seem you know something no one else does.
Kindly share some of your wisdom regarding your above 1-5 points, backed up with factual numbers, since it seem you know something no one else does.
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go read the last 50 years of Janes AWA, Flight & Flying
full of companies grossly underestimating time and cost of development, re development & upgrades on commercial aircraft
full of companies grossly underestimating time and cost of development, re development & upgrades on commercial aircraft
I wouldn't dispute any of HH's 5 truisms , though I disagree with his conclusion.
Having said that, 3 of the 5 points he made are irrelevant - relating to restarting production of an upgraded old design - which clearly isn't what Saab are contemplating.
Yes, developing a new design is horrendously expensive, no argument with that statement. However the fact that Bombardier and ATR are struggling to make a profit competing with each other (with two products, neither of which can be stretched much further) doesn't necessarily mean that an all-new 90-110 seat Saab with the new GE engine wouldn't do well in competition with jets in the under 400nm market.
Having said that, 3 of the 5 points he made are irrelevant - relating to restarting production of an upgraded old design - which clearly isn't what Saab are contemplating.
Yes, developing a new design is horrendously expensive, no argument with that statement. However the fact that Bombardier and ATR are struggling to make a profit competing with each other (with two products, neither of which can be stretched much further) doesn't necessarily mean that an all-new 90-110 seat Saab with the new GE engine wouldn't do well in competition with jets in the under 400nm market.
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Interesting to read the following quote.
"Maritime Airborne Surveillance is a fast growing market throughout the world. With the 340 MSA, Saab has a market position where we will be seeing a substantial increase in airborne systems," says Rickard Hjelmberg, Vice President, Maritime Surveillance Area within Support and Services.
"Maritime Airborne Surveillance is a fast growing market throughout the world. With the 340 MSA, Saab has a market position where we will be seeing a substantial increase in airborne systems," says Rickard Hjelmberg, Vice President, Maritime Surveillance Area within Support and Services.
Last edited by jackx123; 7th Jul 2012 at 16:18.
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No doubt Saab is busy with producing a sort of mini-AWACS on 2000 and 340 basis, however this is irrelevant to building of new aircraft. Vice versa Saab is cashing on hi-tech aviation related technologies, which is everything else than aircraft production (same model was successfully adopted earlier by BAE Systems). If you visit their facility at Linkoping, their hangars are full of airframes undergoing military conversion. But this has nothing to do with aircraft production.
I think we assume SAAB is developing a new 90 seater because they were in talks with GE regarding their new engine aimed at the 90 seat market. An artical recently suggests the CPX38 will be in the 4000-6000HP range. The original SAAB 2000 had a derated AE2100 set at 4150SHP. GE is looking for a 15-20% reduction in SFC on this engine with similar savings in maintenance costs due to electronic engine monitoring technologies.
Based on 15% fuel saving applied to the S20 it would have comparable fuel usage to the ATR42(500/600) per sector for a few more seats, 50 knots more speed and cruise altitudes up to FL310.
There is still some hope for a new 2000.
* I would expect the 15% reduction would be compared to current technology and offer much improvement over the AE2100 on the S2000.
Based on 15% fuel saving applied to the S20 it would have comparable fuel usage to the ATR42(500/600) per sector for a few more seats, 50 knots more speed and cruise altitudes up to FL310.
There is still some hope for a new 2000.
* I would expect the 15% reduction would be compared to current technology and offer much improvement over the AE2100 on the S2000.
Last edited by 43Inches; 11th Jul 2012 at 11:58.
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43,
An interesting comment that contines this discussion. Furthermore the SB2000 airfame can be configured for up to 58 passengers by replacing the aft 'hot' galley with the smaller forward unit and istalling the 4 across back row bench and an additional seat row.
Extra passengers and new motors producing 15 percent lower fuel burn for the same performance would impressively reduce regional operator unit costs for airlines choosing to operate such an aircraft.
Harry,
I was amused when you cited 50 tears of reading Jane's, AWA, Flight and Flying as your authoritative references to JackX's request for clarification.
I think all your references are reliable organs, where the journalist's indeed did their jobs by reporting the news that aerospace companies (in this case made) and resisted the current journalistic tendency of trying to create the news themselves and fit it into a real time media grap or a sound bite.
My point is that aerospace companies (in this speculation - Saab) do their own thing, which is commented on by journalists at the time as news and afterwards as perspectives on the decisions that were made.
None of the high quality preiodicals you mentioned, to the best of my knowledge, has ever attempted to predict the future. They have only ever commented on the successes or otherwise of the decisions made by their subjects and indeed, when this discussion is over and Saab reveals what they will do, or not on this subject, Flight, et al, will write either a news breaking story or a nice little retrospective feature accordingly.
An interesting comment that contines this discussion. Furthermore the SB2000 airfame can be configured for up to 58 passengers by replacing the aft 'hot' galley with the smaller forward unit and istalling the 4 across back row bench and an additional seat row.
Extra passengers and new motors producing 15 percent lower fuel burn for the same performance would impressively reduce regional operator unit costs for airlines choosing to operate such an aircraft.
Harry,
I was amused when you cited 50 tears of reading Jane's, AWA, Flight and Flying as your authoritative references to JackX's request for clarification.
I think all your references are reliable organs, where the journalist's indeed did their jobs by reporting the news that aerospace companies (in this case made) and resisted the current journalistic tendency of trying to create the news themselves and fit it into a real time media grap or a sound bite.
My point is that aerospace companies (in this speculation - Saab) do their own thing, which is commented on by journalists at the time as news and afterwards as perspectives on the decisions that were made.
None of the high quality preiodicals you mentioned, to the best of my knowledge, has ever attempted to predict the future. They have only ever commented on the successes or otherwise of the decisions made by their subjects and indeed, when this discussion is over and Saab reveals what they will do, or not on this subject, Flight, et al, will write either a news breaking story or a nice little retrospective feature accordingly.
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The Saab CEO has been talking to Bloomberg at Farnborough about a possible resumption of civil aircraft production (as a JV with India). I can't find an English-language link - here is the original Swedish report.
Google translates part of it as:
Google translates part of it as:
"We started the evaluation for almost two years ago. There will be a completely new aircraft, and not quite like the Saab 2000, "reported Mr Buskhe have said about the plans, which should require an initial customer order to be realized.
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A complete translation from swedish:
Saab is considering resuming the manufacturing of civilian aircraft.
Saab considering resuming its production of civilian aircraft, an operation which has been down for 13 years.
July 11th, 2012 at 16:10
Bloomberg News writes after an interview with CEO Håkan Buskhe at this year's air show in Farnborough, England.
"We started the evaluation almost two years ago. It will not be a completely new aircraft, nor quite like the Saab 2000", Håkan Buskhe is reported to have said about the plans, which should require an initial customer in order to be realized.
Bloomberg News writes that the plans were raised due to increased fuel prices, which increases the demand for relatively fuel efficient so-called turbo-prop aircraft (propeller aircraft of the type that Saab 340 and 2000).
For any production, a joint venture with a not yet designated companies from India may be the case, according to Håkan Buskhe, but points out that the Indian market is not large enough alone to justify a resumption of production. India, according to Bloomberg News, expressed interest in a domestically-developed regional civilian aircraft.
Saab's media relation Manager Erik Magni says to News Agency Direkt that the discussions on civil aircraft production so far are at an early stage, and that decisions for production are not included. He also mentions that it is natural for Saab to keep up with the development of civil aircraft, given the large number of Saab 340 and 2000 still in operation.
"Today there is more than 450 Saab 2000 and Saab 340 (our civilian aircraft) in operation and they are expected to fly for years to come. We have a responsibility to keep us updated on the market and technology", said Saab spokesperson Karin Walka in an email to News Agency Direkt on Tuesday, speaking of the discussions on the possible resumption of production of commercial aircraft.
Saab considering resuming its production of civilian aircraft, an operation which has been down for 13 years.
July 11th, 2012 at 16:10
Bloomberg News writes after an interview with CEO Håkan Buskhe at this year's air show in Farnborough, England.
"We started the evaluation almost two years ago. It will not be a completely new aircraft, nor quite like the Saab 2000", Håkan Buskhe is reported to have said about the plans, which should require an initial customer in order to be realized.
Bloomberg News writes that the plans were raised due to increased fuel prices, which increases the demand for relatively fuel efficient so-called turbo-prop aircraft (propeller aircraft of the type that Saab 340 and 2000).
For any production, a joint venture with a not yet designated companies from India may be the case, according to Håkan Buskhe, but points out that the Indian market is not large enough alone to justify a resumption of production. India, according to Bloomberg News, expressed interest in a domestically-developed regional civilian aircraft.
Saab's media relation Manager Erik Magni says to News Agency Direkt that the discussions on civil aircraft production so far are at an early stage, and that decisions for production are not included. He also mentions that it is natural for Saab to keep up with the development of civil aircraft, given the large number of Saab 340 and 2000 still in operation.
"Today there is more than 450 Saab 2000 and Saab 340 (our civilian aircraft) in operation and they are expected to fly for years to come. We have a responsibility to keep us updated on the market and technology", said Saab spokesperson Karin Walka in an email to News Agency Direkt on Tuesday, speaking of the discussions on the possible resumption of production of commercial aircraft.
There will be a completely new aircraft, and not quite like the Saab 2000
It will not be a completely new aircraft, nor quite like the Saab 2000
Bing translates the original Swedish as "There will be an entirely new aircraft"
Sounds like SAAB might be involved in the RTA-70 program. This is a high wing, T-Tail design starting at 70 seats. An all new design although some initial pictures and mockups looked like a cross between an ATR and the Dash 8. The program seemed to dissapear a few years back after the government wanted it changed to a turbofan design.