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AF 447 Search to resume

Old 5th Mar 2011, 22:20
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2319z has Alucia approaching the Mirafloras locks, the first of the three sets on her passage through the canal.

Edit: Hm, fiddling with the map I found more information.

The Whitney Bay is in the lead. And there are four ships still coming South to get through if they truly run only one way at a time. One of the four is just about clearing the locks at this moment. It looks like Alucia and Whitney Bay are going to get into the locks going North before the pipeline is cleared.

Go to the pancanal.com site and you can find live video of the passage if you get there soon enough.
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Old 5th Mar 2011, 22:27
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At 2326z the "Whitney Bay" & "Alucia" are entering Miraflores west.

Multimedia - PanCanal.com
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Old 5th Mar 2011, 22:36
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They are in the lock. The lock is closing. And a ship just entered the other end going South, on the other lane of course.
2135z
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Old 5th Mar 2011, 22:45
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There are 2 lock chambers, and you will see the vessels again (if sufficient lighting) when they are in or leaving the second chamber on the High Resolution camera.
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Old 5th Mar 2011, 22:55
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There is sufficient lighting. They turned on the lights. I guess they like to see what they are doing.
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Old 5th Mar 2011, 23:18
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On the webcam, looks like Alucia is exiting the Miraflores lock behind Whitney Bay now?

How many hopes and prayers must go with her...

(0025z Now see from map that Alucia has exited, leaving Whitney Bay behind.)

Thanks for all the links, you guys.
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Old 6th Mar 2011, 00:04
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For any who missed it: Alucia leaves Mirasflores lock...

http://i52.tinypic.com/33o17oh.gif (animated gif)
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Old 6th Mar 2011, 03:55
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For reference the Alucia is in the Western middle Gatun lock at the time this message was posted. So I suspect she'll be on her way and again out of our sight until she gets to Recife, estimated on the 18th at "22:11 (UTC)". I am amazed or at least bemused at the "precision" here. Gee, if she hits it on the head that says something about the sloppiness of airline flights, doesn't it?

(Grinning, ducking, running ->>>> THAT WAY FAST!) ->>>>>>>>>>>
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Old 6th Mar 2011, 05:39
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Alucia

She is still visible.
She dropped anchor at Colon on the other side of the Canal.

Ship trip are sooo slow...
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Old 6th Mar 2011, 21:29
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I am amazed or at least bemused at the "precision" here.
The accuracy involved is mind boggling when you consider that with a known distance and a best guess average speed, the computer doesn't understand such subtleties and the answer is always to x decimal places!

In any-case the best guess average speed appears to be 10.75 knots, and I suspect they will be lucky to maintain that, as for starters, the leg ENE to the north of Colombia is often subject to a strong ENE wind with accompanying sea and swells. After passing Curacao the winds will be lighter, but the surface current sets along the coast to the WNW and will peg back their GS.

Edit ::
ETA Recife 201103182011z per "Alucia" AIS
Last Pos'n. 201103061602z 9 43'N 79 31'W Distance 3141NM
Period 12 days 4 hours 09 min = 292.15 Hours
3142/292.15 = 10.75 knots

Last edited by mm43; 8th Mar 2011 at 21:22. Reason: typo - 10.75 knots
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Old 6th Mar 2011, 22:27
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Alucia's last position picked up by AIS was leaving Colon at 18:01z, and where she gives an ETA Recife of 18 March which is consistent with a speed of 12kn for the distance of 3,161nm. The last AIS data shows her at 12.9kn - consistent with wanting to get the hell away from the anchorage and arriving ships and into open water where the crew can settle into a routine for the next eleven days

Don't expect to see much of her until she passes Aruba and then north of Trinidad. Unless she surprises us and begins transmitting her position by satellite.
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Old 8th Mar 2011, 19:25
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JD-EE - the sloppiness of airline flights....

Totally off-thread but remotely related and on a lighter note: no need to run JD; a lot of us rely on the aviation equivalent of AIS to track where in the world our so-mobile family members are, so we know what time to head for the airport etc.

That's what I was doing on Saturday evening. And Sunday morning. And Sunday evening. Mrs b was returning from Miami to Rio on a flight that went tech for 16 hours. Mrs b is quiet, patient (she would be, considering who she married), pretty organized, understands that tech happens and prefers, when in doubt, to stay on terra firma until all's fixed.

And, for Lomapaseo's interest, she also comments favourably on what she sees as great forbearance and good communication from the flight deck in the pre-departure confusion. She is not amongst the group who are suing !
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Old 10th Mar 2011, 00:00
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The UN-organisation, IMO, in its International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) requires AIS to be fitted aboard international voyaging ships with gross tonnage (GT) of 300 or more tons, and all passenger ships regardless of size. AIS regularly transmits data on VHF in order to avoid collisions with other ships. It is estimated that more than 40,000 ships currently carry AIS class A equipment
Is this how Somali pirates seem to know just where their next target ship is and seem to manage to intercept so easily?
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Old 10th Mar 2011, 03:10
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HarryMann

A ship can switch off its AIS transmitter easily and I think most in the Indian Ocean do so. Whether they turn off the satellite transmitter as well as the VHF one, I wonder: there are pros and cons there. I've no doubt the Somali pirate backers (and many other organisations interested in targeting vessels with potentially juicy returns) have access to both. But so do the naval forces in the region. If you turn off the satellite tracking you disappear from the naval forces' screens as well. Sod's Law.
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Old 10th Mar 2011, 03:16
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The trouble with the Somali pirates, is that they will proceed many 100's of miles off the coast, and they themselves will not be detected by other ship's AIS. But they are equipped with a receive only AIS, and the rest is history.

It's a bit difficult to convince naval craft that you have a good reason not to have your AIS running when 200 miles or more from the coast, but as you know, the results are seen every day. The stuff that makes it to the media, is just the tip of the iceberg.
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 20:19
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I just watched this documentary on AF447, they suggest that super-cooled water vapour frooze the pitot tubes causing multiple system failures. The documentary can be seen here.

Lost: Mystery of Flight 447 - The Passionate Eye | CBC News Network
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Old 15th Mar 2011, 23:50
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Not available outside of Canada.
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Old 16th Mar 2011, 00:16
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The trailer for the CBC program can be viewed outside of Canada. That shows it to be basically the same program as both the one that aired on the BBC last year in the UK, and the re-narrated version that aired on PBS/NOVA last month in the USA. The trailer notes that the broadcast coincides with the start of the Phase 4 search, so possibly it has a little information added, but likely not.
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Old 16th Mar 2011, 00:22
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AF447 Documentary

There is really just one (speculative) documentary, produced by Darlow Smithson Productions. It was aired last year by the BBC in the UK and the PBS program NOVA in the US, and now by the CBC in Canada.


wes_wall -- you may view it here.
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Old 16th Mar 2011, 00:59
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And as for the "Alucia", last picked up by AIS north of Trinidad on 11 March, doing 11.8 knots. The ETA Recife, 18 March I think it was, looks good.
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