AF 447 Search to resume
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: London
Age: 68
Posts: 1,269
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I sincerely hope the BEA has followed the sometimes exceptional high level discussions on the previous thread here. It was giving an original and structured angle on the choices the recovery task force had been taking.
A forum at it's best!
A forum at it's best!
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Foster City, California
Posts: 12
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: France
Posts: 25
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Link to French Newspaper Article
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Camel jockey
Posts: 183
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
With a price tag of 4mil per person on board, it's little wonder AF are pointing the finger away from them-selfs, however there language suggest that there may be a rift in the relationship between AF and airbus over this accident. but to suggest that no blame lies with them after there crew flew into cells is laughable.
It will indeed be interesting to see which area's BEA come up with for the new searches.
mm43 would it be asking to much to ask you if it would be possible to see how the areas search look overlay-ed on the location of the body's and parts found. I know that there are many great charts on the thread but don't recall one that has both on one chart.
It will indeed be interesting to see which area's BEA come up with for the new searches.
mm43 would it be asking to much to ask you if it would be possible to see how the areas search look overlay-ed on the location of the body's and parts found. I know that there are many great charts on the thread but don't recall one that has both on one chart.
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: in a plasma cocoon
Age: 53
Posts: 244
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Jeff
PS) The backdrifting studies are also supposed to increase this probability. The phase IV will also take in account the backdrifted areas already searched without results (mostly north of LKP). Maybe the phase IV will search the poorly explored areas produced by the Mercator PSY2V3 model (page 130 of the report below), W-SW of LKP, near the region where the pinger signals have been supposedly detected/identified by the French Navy & Thales.
http://www.bea.aero/en/enquetes/flig...oup.report.pdf
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: France
Posts: 2,315
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I would say.... not a lot.
However, one could hope for a bit of luck in actually finding some large parts of the wreckage itself.
I'm amazed actually that all the commentary is always about finding the recorders, and not about finding the wreckage field.
The exact location alone would tell us a lot more about the actual timing of the events, and each identifiable piece of wreckage will be able to 'tell its tale' to the experts, much like the few pieces picked up from the surface already have done.
And large parts of the structure (parts of the wings, large fragments of the fuselage, possibly the horizontal stabilisers, and the engines) would all have sunk relatively fast, and constitute far more obvious 'targets' for a search (sonar and otherwise) than two relatively 'minute' black (orange) boxes.
I suppose the real 'hope' is to find the wreckage itself... and that the FDR and CVR have gone down with the wreckage and can still be found that way.
CJ
However, one could hope for a bit of luck in actually finding some large parts of the wreckage itself.
I'm amazed actually that all the commentary is always about finding the recorders, and not about finding the wreckage field.
The exact location alone would tell us a lot more about the actual timing of the events, and each identifiable piece of wreckage will be able to 'tell its tale' to the experts, much like the few pieces picked up from the surface already have done.
And large parts of the structure (parts of the wings, large fragments of the fuselage, possibly the horizontal stabilisers, and the engines) would all have sunk relatively fast, and constitute far more obvious 'targets' for a search (sonar and otherwise) than two relatively 'minute' black (orange) boxes.
I suppose the real 'hope' is to find the wreckage itself... and that the FDR and CVR have gone down with the wreckage and can still be found that way.
CJ
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NNW of Antipodes
Age: 81
Posts: 1,330
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
bia botal
The composite below is comprised of the original BEA image showing the areas searched during the Phase 3 search, and overlaid with the initial aerial search (as stated by the FAB), the Pollution Spot, and the initial positions of bodies recovered. The bodies recovered on 6 June 2009 are identified.
It can be assumed, that those parts of the aircraft that sunk did so almost immediately, otherwise if there was a wide dispersal of wreckage that slowly sunk, then the chances of one or more items being found increases significantly. This means that if the major parts of the (broken) aircraft sunk almost immediately, their bottom footprint will not be large.
The white bordered area has not been searched, and a small extension along its southern edge would cover the Pollution Spot, for which a plausible explanation has not been established.
mm43
.... would [it] be possible to see how the areas search look overlay-ed on the location of the body's and parts found?
It can be assumed, that those parts of the aircraft that sunk did so almost immediately, otherwise if there was a wide dispersal of wreckage that slowly sunk, then the chances of one or more items being found increases significantly. This means that if the major parts of the (broken) aircraft sunk almost immediately, their bottom footprint will not be large.
The white bordered area has not been searched, and a small extension along its southern edge would cover the Pollution Spot, for which a plausible explanation has not been established.
mm43
Last edited by mm43; 27th Nov 2010 at 23:08. Reason: updated graphic
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NNW of Antipodes
Age: 81
Posts: 1,330
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
bearfoil
Radii are 10NM out to the 40NM established search radius.
The laptop was recovered along with a body shortly after 1800z on 8 June 2009. The position is outside the the graphic above, and was near 4N 30.5W.
All that data is back in "this" thread. I have the distinct impression that everything that has been raised in this thread is going to be done to death again in the new R&N thread.
mm43
Radii are 10NM out to the 40NM established search radius.
The laptop was recovered along with a body shortly after 1800z on 8 June 2009. The position is outside the the graphic above, and was near 4N 30.5W.
All that data is back in "this" thread. I have the distinct impression that everything that has been raised in this thread is going to be done to death again in the new R&N thread.
mm43
Guest
Posts: n/a
mm43
Thanks for your patience and your amazing work here. I have only one small suggestion re: repetition. This thread will get periodically re-invigorated with the passage of time and the acquisition of new data. This is not necessarily a bad thing,imo. My assumption is that this thread is read by many who are not technical, or conversant in the topics in discussion. "Read The Thread!" falls on deaf ears, perhaps, and I think work like your own is well served by an occasional "visit" to prior comment.
much respect, bearfoil
Thanks for your patience and your amazing work here. I have only one small suggestion re: repetition. This thread will get periodically re-invigorated with the passage of time and the acquisition of new data. This is not necessarily a bad thing,imo. My assumption is that this thread is read by many who are not technical, or conversant in the topics in discussion. "Read The Thread!" falls on deaf ears, perhaps, and I think work like your own is well served by an occasional "visit" to prior comment.
much respect, bearfoil
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: us
Posts: 694
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Boeing and Air France are studying the effect of very small ice particles at high altitude on the pitots. Being discussed in the tech forum re: the search resuming on AF447.
http://www.pprune.org/tech-log/39510...ml#post6084726
http://www.pprune.org/tech-log/39510...ml#post6084726
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: france
Posts: 21
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
4greens
4Greens said
Qantas had a similar problem flying to Perth some six months ago and the crew handled it ok.
Maybe new approaches to crew training required for some other airlines.
Qantas had a similar problem flying to Perth some six months ago and the crew handled it ok.
Maybe new approaches to crew training required for some other airlines.
You seem to know things that even the best informed investigators don't.
Thank you.
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: france
Posts: 21
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
AF had several other incidents regarding icing of pitot probes on airbus, some with total loss of airspeed informations, which didn't end like af447.
So ?
Please avoid any quick conclusions based on irrelevant facts.
So ?
Please avoid any quick conclusions based on irrelevant facts.
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Germany
Age: 47
Posts: 402
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
i truly think nor air france neither airbus are interested in publishing the true story to public.
its not a kind of conspirancy- the accident happened as it gets . but when whe know the truth the basic considerations would be that our air france hereos were not that smart since they flew in significant weather on the one hand and on the other hand the A330 finally gave up in these conditions.
on the one hand we would have a false pilots decisions and on the other hand we would have an aircraft failure under sever econditions where boeing surely would give us data where a 777 would probably survive under similar conditions.
since no survivors are there out its now nothing more than money and reputation for air france and airbus.
its not a kind of conspirancy- the accident happened as it gets . but when whe know the truth the basic considerations would be that our air france hereos were not that smart since they flew in significant weather on the one hand and on the other hand the A330 finally gave up in these conditions.
on the one hand we would have a false pilots decisions and on the other hand we would have an aircraft failure under sever econditions where boeing surely would give us data where a 777 would probably survive under similar conditions.
since no survivors are there out its now nothing more than money and reputation for air france and airbus.
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: US
Posts: 497
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Most of the incidents I heard of were daytime incidents. That makes it easier in VMC conditions. From the crash results the FO's were flying it and the captain was in back taking his rest so the question is how qualified were they to command the plane. I know they were legal but could they handle all pitot/static info being lost in the dark? The captain might have been able to find a way to just fly GPS GS for a while to sort things out. Who knows? Not saying they did anything wrong just wondering if more experience might have saved them. Hope they find the black boxes to end the mystery.
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: NNW of Antipodes
Age: 81
Posts: 1,330
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Bearfoil
As requested, I have added another layer on the graphic to give an indication of how the surface current may have moved bodies and debris. There is no exact science involved here; more intuitive based on some evidence which indicated that the current was flowing to the NE in the SW quadrant of the search area at the time of the impact. That current was observed to back to the North over the next 6 days, and is evident in the northern sector where the bodies tracked to the north following the initial sighting. A lot of the miscellaneous debris moved way to the west of the track drawn here, on account of windage and the prevailing ENE winds.
I suspect the "Ursula" sighting on 5 June 2009 wasn't recovered until either the 7th or 8th.
As drawn, the sharp end of the "horn" is in another unresolved area, i.e. "L'Emeraude" pinger tapes. Mathematically, the position could equally be near the "Pollution Spot", but the math(s) involved cannot take into account the unpredictable whims of surface currents and wind when arriving at a probability.
This unresolved tiff between the MoD and MoT which happened to involve Thales, contracted to the MoD and Airbus, may actually be something relevant to the search. The parties involved aren't making their thoughts on this public though.
mm43
As requested, I have added another layer on the graphic to give an indication of how the surface current may have moved bodies and debris. There is no exact science involved here; more intuitive based on some evidence which indicated that the current was flowing to the NE in the SW quadrant of the search area at the time of the impact. That current was observed to back to the North over the next 6 days, and is evident in the northern sector where the bodies tracked to the north following the initial sighting. A lot of the miscellaneous debris moved way to the west of the track drawn here, on account of windage and the prevailing ENE winds.
I suspect the "Ursula" sighting on 5 June 2009 wasn't recovered until either the 7th or 8th.
As drawn, the sharp end of the "horn" is in another unresolved area, i.e. "L'Emeraude" pinger tapes. Mathematically, the position could equally be near the "Pollution Spot", but the math(s) involved cannot take into account the unpredictable whims of surface currents and wind when arriving at a probability.
This unresolved tiff between the MoD and MoT which happened to involve Thales, contracted to the MoD and Airbus, may actually be something relevant to the search. The parties involved aren't making their thoughts on this public though.
mm43
Last edited by mm43; 28th Nov 2010 at 03:46.