AF447

[ILS27LEFT]

My strong assumption

Yes mine was certainly a very strong assumption based on established facts regarding the weather, documented also on this forum. The pilot of AF 447 also radio-communicated the turbulence shortly before the series of faults kicked in.
All Weather radars were showing serious weather indeed, I am not talking about the radar on board this specific a/c, nobody knows if that was fully working in fact, but I am referring to the numerous public weather radars fully available on the web for that area at that time. Plenty of screenshots available online. Definitely serious weather but absolutely average and forecasted for the area and they were flying through it or very close to it, this alone would have never brought the plane down. We all know this.
I have never said that the weather caused this accident, what I have "rumoured" in my previous post instead is that established bad weather (fact) associated to the "apparently confirmed" pitot problem (nearly a fact) is a recipe for disaster, in my opinion, due to coffin corner and total lack of air speed data.
I do not think anybody can deny this.
Can anybody fly through coffin corner without airspeed data and survive?
As I said I also believe that ground speed data lost signal from satellite due to weather which normally is not an issue at all.
Again, a combination of factors but AF did not change pitot on this A/C as per AirBus notice. Coincidence or possible cause?

[Interflug]

The pilot of AF 447 also radio-communicated the turbulence shortly before the series of faults kicked in.

No factual information exists about this claimed communication (in public). It might be just a myth.

[etsd0001]

We know in one case that the VS mounting lugs failed laterally, all at once, across many layers of composite material, in AA587. This must have taken the structural engineers somewhat by surprise.

Not so.

From the Airbus FCOM Bulletin 815/1

The Rudder should not be used:

- To induce roll
- To counter roll induced by any type of turbulance

Whatever the airborne flight conditions may be, full or nearly full opposite rudder pedal inputs must not be applied. Such inputs can lead to loads higher than the limit, and can result in structural damage or failure

The rudder travel limiter system is not designed to prevent structural damage or failure in the event of such rudder system inputs

[HarryMann]

Can anybody fly through coffin corner without airspeed data and survive?

This term seems to be acquiring a life of its own... Coffin Corner. Goodness knows what any lay members of the public would think reading 'that' statement.

1) You don't fly 'through' that region, as if it's a part of the sky, you fly 'within' an altitide speed band, a regime, tight or wide in extent, as explained 100's of posts ago, probably +/- 25 kts plus other 'certificated' margins on top of that.

2) We don't know for sure that ALL airspeed and attitude data was lost, do we?

3) It's the turbulence that would be the primary difficulty, rather than being within a restrictive flight regime per se, if all airspeed data was lost, since a default attitude and power setting is the recommended 'exit strategy'

I agree a very serious situation would exist when losing airpseed data when 'way up there', and would be amplified by manifold issues at night in turbulence/ice/preciptation/lightning...

But saying flying 'through coffin corner' without airspeed data gives totally the wrong impression...

[ILS27LEFT]

My reply

I am quite sure I read it somewhere on an official source, I could be wrong of course but I think it is irrelevant because the fact that significant weather was in the proximity of this A/C I still see it as a clear FACT.
I think it is also a proven FACT that pitots had not been changed by AF on this specific machine.
Anything else is rumours and speculation of course but the two FACTS above "could" have been the initial trigger of a full loss of control with all consequences associated to this.
If the pitot issue will be confirmed as main trigger nobody can blame the two or 3 professional pilots in the cockpit.
I say this because I am also sure they knew very well about this pitot problem and they were all well trained on how to react to loss of airspeed data at altitude and in turbulence, but again real weather could have made it impossible. Sims, unfortunately, cannot fully replicate reality.
Reminder: it is not always easy to avoid those massive CB, sometimes you have no choice and go back, sometimes something strong, thick and black just comes out of nowhere, plus nobody knows if their wx radar was working and telling the truth.
Only this.

[HarryMann]

Originally Posted by ILS27L

Definitely serious weather but absolutely average and forecasted for the area and they were flying through it or very close to it, this alone would have never brought the plane down. We all know this.

We don't, flying through very serious weather can bring aircraft down if control is lost - fact - which is why a/c have weather radar and pilots everywhere avoid the worst, even with fully operational air data displays - because you just don't know what is inside! Nature is not just incredibly powerful, but incredibly unpredicatble...

[Bearcat]

Harry, unfortunetly coffin corner could be a very signicient part of this accident if the data is retrieved to show that the aircraft flew through an area of ISA+45 due convective lifting from the CB's in this ITCZ area. An A330 with 1.3G protection flying at max alt then going through this warm patch....well red bars will be meeting red bars on the speed tape.....

[eliptic]

i guess this thread did not leave out any form of possible reason of the accident ,,maybe the only missing link would be the lockness

Regards to the Crew i think the majority of pilots would face the same destiny as the AF 447 guys did,, thinking of collected experience

it is very sad when speculations start depending on clothes on or not, especially for the relatives to the victims ,, get that box recover now!!

[HarryMann]

Thanks Bearcat, well aware...

I just think the post was adding little to what has been said ad infinitum so far, and sounded 'alarmist' in it's use of phraseology..

Flying 'through coffin corner without airspeed data'...

The a/c was probably flying up in that region and then lost airspeed data (probably)...

A very different emphasis, no ?

PS. We also don't know it was at max alt for its weight at the point

[Farfrompuken]

ILS27L et al.

All this talk of wx avoidance and turning back etc. is all very 'armchair'.

Having flown through that region on many nights, sometimes you have to thread your way through the best (but no means nice) way possible using radar and eyes to guide you.

Turning around wasn't an option for me for 2 reasons: 1) past LPD to an island destination and 2) you'd be flying back through precisely the weather you were trying to avoid in the first place!!

Not been on AF447, I can't comment too much on their options, however stooging through the ITCZ isn't enjoyable, less so if you're facing failures many hours from a safe haven. Turning around may not have been an option.

I suggest we all await the official reports before spouting any more waffle.

[eliptic]

Grrr,

I can not for 1 second understand WHY in 2009 a so critical item as a black box should be aloud to follow a A/C down to the bottom of the sea

Thats totally insane,atleast they could put it in the v/s!! that one seams to exit and float most of the times

[Gringobr]

Oxygen masks

Oxygen masks have been found from AF 447
No comment......
Peças e objetos do voo AF 447 - Álbum de Fotos - UOL Notícias

[grizzled]

More Pix.

This was published today. As it was taken at a photo session arranged by Brasilian authorities at Recife, one might assume more specific photos of the items will soon show up online.

[kilomikedelta]

Debris Photos

They're all aat: FORÇA AÉREA BRASILEIRA - Asas de um povo soberano

[Gringobr]

Autopsy results

Although this has been on the news here in Brazil for hours, I have not yet seen it mentioned here, I sent a post but did not get published here
basically most of the bodies had severe head injuries, none died from drowning..
No trace of fire or explosion was found on any bodies.
they were found in two separate areas, suggesting, only possibly, breakup in flight

[J.S.]

News from brazilian TV newsprogram

Hello all, I´ve followed and read all postings from 1st (closed) to this topic, many interesting things I´ve read since then.

Just 30 minutes ago, in the daily night-news-program on the brazilian TV channel "Band", the leader of the IML in Recife said (Institute for autopsies):
"The 16 bodies we´ve pre-autopsied, so far, can´t be recognized and or identified by parents/related persons. No one of the recovered bodies had clothes on. No one of the bodies had water in their lungs nor signs of smoke. No one of the bodies apresented any kind of fire/heat exposure. Allmost all bodies show middle to heavy internal contusions."

The conclusion from the news-reporter was for then, as he said:
"The theory comes near that the AF 447 suffered a quick decompression while in almost cruising altitude with or without total desintegration of the a/c and that the passengers and crew may have died before the impact on the ocean."

Sorry if my portuguese > english translation isn´t 100%, at least I din´t used some auto-translators...btw. I´m german.

Actual images of found debris you´ll find here: gallery on brazilian news-site: G1 > Mundo - NOTÍCIAS - Air France voo 447: galeria de fotos

[zak0r]

No one of the recovered bodies had clothes on.

A very large percentage of accident victims in the Alps who slip/fall/tumble down mountains and experience a strong impact falling or multiple tumbling falls are stripped of their clothing. I'd like to point that climbers in the Alps dont(cant!) suffer Rapid Decompression yet often end up without clothing when falling down the hill.

[Backoffice]

Hold contents

Just to throw another thought in here.
I wonder what was in the hold apart from containerised baggage..i.e. any large bulk cargo items that may or may not have been tied down and, might in the turbulence attain enough momentum to punch a hole in the skin.

[YRP]

I know little about IT, but as you say, there MUST be a way that modern aircraft can transmit "burst" transmissions on a regular basis (say every 20min) to home base including ALL the info that would normally be stored on the FDR/CVR?

OK a lot can happen in the 20min between transmissions, but surely a pattern may emerge leading up to a serious incident?

Of course there is a way, 747guru. The technology exists - satcom/phone link. But it would have to be way more frequent that 20 minutes to be useful. Back of the envelope calculation, you're talking a couple of satphone voice calls worth of bandwidth, continuous.

Not an expert, but the cost would be approximately equal to the pilots' salaries for the flight.

If you were going to spend that kind of money to improve safety, is that really the most effective way to do it? What do you really get out of it?

(Standing by to be flamed)

[DC-ATE]

etsd0001 -

The rudder travel limiter system is not designed to prevent structural damage or failure in the event of such rudder system inputs

Huh? Explain please. If it's not designed to prevent damage, what is its purpose?