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AF447

Old 12th Sep 2009, 10:05
  #4361 (permalink)  
 
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Surely it is just those conditions, and the 'relative flyability' that is being investigated and quantified by BEA and Airbus as we speak. It's certainly something that from the uncertainty evinced here, seems to require re-quantifying... especially for increasing levels of turbulence and decreasing levels of instrumentation.

Some of these pages contain discussion of the existence and capabilities of Airbus simulators extending the envelope beyond normal line-training purposes.
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Old 12th Sep 2009, 21:12
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10,000th post: once round the clock, congratulations

BOAC, how's the rust ?
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Old 12th Sep 2009, 22:22
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Mr O - it is best not to mention that here - PPRuNe Towers gets awfully excited about that sort of thing.....
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Old 13th Sep 2009, 13:16
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Read an interesting comment in Flight International yesterday in one of the letters, suggesting that a [panic] button be introduced along the lines of the airbus ditching button alluded to in the Hudson river incident, but with the effect of tranmitting an automated mayday message.

The idea being to reduce pilot workload if they find themselves in a true mayday situation. The idea being to automatically provide basic details, position, airspeed, flight number etc. from data entered into the flight computer prior to take off & in-flight updates to aid in any search should the worst happen.

Forgive me for my ignorance of the ACARS system [I don't get into the "front offices" very often], but wouldn't it be easier to make the automated reports sent on ACARS include position, speed, altitude & heading, or to have separate ACARS reports of this data, say every five minutes mandated when out of range of ATC radar / radio?
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Old 14th Sep 2009, 02:20
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Hi,

but as you point out, the airplane is certified.
Certification
One can ask:
In his commercial operation life the de Havilland Comet was certified or not ?
Think about.
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Old 14th Sep 2009, 10:36
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Yes, it was certified of course; then withdrawn for a few months while very extensive investigation was made of every possible aspect that might have brought down G-ALYP out of Ciampino. Quite a few modifications were made, including electrical and fire safety before it was re-issued.
2 weeks later G-ALYY was lost and the certificate withdrawn indefinitely whilst the largest accident investigation of its kind took place.

It was this investigation that introduced cyclic water-tank testing to establish a safe fatigue life of a/c pressure-hulls.
The original CoA was based on extensive testing of samples and sub-sections of the fuselage.

I think it is a rather trite point you make....
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Old 14th Sep 2009, 16:08
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HM,

I think you may have overreacted a tad to jcj's post. I take his point to be this: certification is not a perfect process.

Especially with the speed of change in technologies, design and construction procedures, significant issues can and will arise before, and occasionally even after, certification.
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Old 14th Sep 2009, 21:16
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OK, just a tad

The point surely, is whether the Cert requirements stipulate manual handling capability to be demonstrated in such a potentially degraded aircraft at night, in turbulence, up at cruise altitude and speed.

I imagine not!
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Old 14th Sep 2009, 21:58
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but if, as we suspect, they flew headlong into CB then they would be subjected to such massively differing conditions, huge updrafts, multiple lightening strikes, changes in wind direction, intensity,ice ingestion, potential for engine flame out etc. Its possible that NO aircraft would be flyable under those conditions -or even maintain structural integrity as it appears AF447 mostly did.

Tho 'handflyability' w/o machine assistance is something needed, wouldnt they be better off if they had REAL weather radar (one that did the active scanning up and down and around and with different intensity parameters..automatically), + training how to use it?
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Old 14th Sep 2009, 22:17
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and maybe even be looking at it, understanding what it means for their continued safety of flight......
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Old 14th Sep 2009, 22:40
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wouldnt they be better off if they had REAL weather radar (one that did the active scanning up and down and around and with different intensity parameters..automatically), + training how to use it
maybe but pure speculation just as maybe something totally different may have occurred
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Old 15th Sep 2009, 02:19
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Hi,

Weather radar ? sure.
Anyway it was a possibilty to have a great help ..... from the weather satellite(s) ..
Air France dispatch sended (ACARS) at 00H31 (BEA report p 61)

BONJOUR AF447.METEO EN ROUTE SAILOR:PHOT SAT DE 0000Z:
CONVECTION ZCIT SALPU/TASIL .- PREVI CAT:NIL.-SLTS DISPATCH

This was a old satellite meteo report.
Nevertheless was available a other satellite imagery dated from two hours before the AF447 approach the bad zone.
This was not sended to AF447.
AF447 had only a TEMSI outdated of 24 hours.
What is the point to have old weather report for planning a flight?
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Old 15th Sep 2009, 02:52
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The use of such a report is very much like the use of the 4300+ posts here previously. Not much use if you don't pay attention.

Trust me here. Several hundred crossings of this exact route are speaking.

ANYONE that has flown this route KNOWS about the WX in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The WX severity that particular night was actually WANING from the 5 to 7 day cycle it usually follows RELIGIOUSLY that time of year.

The Zone forecast for that region was exactly accurate. No one should have been surprised by the WX that night. This crew had traversed this route the other direction a day or so earlier; In WX that was almost at PEAK of cycle.

The other 9 flights that traversed that exact region (all with the same WX reports) within 4 hours all went thru without difficulty.

Somehow these facts keep escaping from collective consciousness every 10 pages or so.
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Old 15th Sep 2009, 11:26
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The other 9 flights that traversed that exact region (all with the same WX reports) within 4 hours all went thru without difficulty.

Somehow these facts keep escaping from collective consciousness every 10 pages or so.
But isn't that what often creates an accident - the unexpected co-incidence of several contributory factors - or a sequence of (likely or expected) events occuring in an unexpected or rare order.

Are we really 'forgetting' the fact that an accident is an unexpected occurrence ?

Last edited by HarryMann; 15th Sep 2009 at 11:36.
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Old 15th Sep 2009, 13:51
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Harry, may I also add that an accident is caused by humans and should be avoidable. An 'act of God' may have brought down AF447, but as had been said many times other flights passed through the ITCZ without mishap. The flight crew were familiar with this region. Oh for the CVR.
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Old 15th Sep 2009, 13:57
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yes, but how many with AA probes ?
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Old 15th Sep 2009, 14:03
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useless...

without the CVR/FDR this thread is now completely useless.
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Old 15th Sep 2009, 14:04
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jcjeant, the satellite image referred to in the message sent at 0031 hours to AF447 was the image from 0000 hours; it was not an image from a day earlier.

The weather-related messages between AF447 and AF dispatch
à 22 h 51 l’équipage demande et reçoit les METAR des aérodromes brésiliens de Belo Horizonte, Salvador de Bahia et Recife,

à 0 h 31 le dispatch envoie le message suivant :
« BONJOUR AF447
METEO EN ROUTE SAILOR :
PHOTO SAT DE 0000Z : CONVECTION ZCIT SALPU/TASIL
PREVI CAT : NIL
SLTS DISPATCH »,

à 0 h 33 l’équipage demande et reçoit les METAR et TAF des aérodromes de
Paris Charles de Gaulle, San Salvador et Sal, Amilcar.

à 0 h 57 l’équipage se renseigne sur l’utilisation du deuxième aérodrome
d’appui ETOPS et le dispatch répond à 1 h 02,

à 1 h 13 l’équipage demande et reçoit les METAR et TAF de Dakar,
Nouakchott et Natal,
The BEA preliminary report does not include the image from 0000 hours. The earliest image in the report is for 0037 hours, which shows the presence of a mesoscale convective system along the route of flight.

A scientist at the Jet Propulsion Lab, NASA sent the following imagery to Tim Vasquez. Note the comment that several storms at 0330Z, by this NASA lab's calculations, had penetrated the troposphere.



Air France 447 - AFR447 - A detailed meteorological analysis - Comments from pilots and other aviation professionals
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Old 15th Sep 2009, 17:25
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AJ, I do not think your comment is fair to the people who have taken a lot of their time gathering facts and figures relating to AF447 demise. The BEA and AF are being very economical with the facts known to date, so there are those who try to use their knowledge and skill to enlighten us as best they can. We all want the BBs to be found.
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Old 15th Sep 2009, 17:35
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fruitless

Promani,

I am just saying that this discussion will be fruitless at this point, with all that could be discussed effectively taken into account.

Nothing against the people who are cooperating here. It was just an advice.
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