How will flight be powered when fossil fuel runs out?
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Someone said this problem might arise in twenty or so years? I´m afraid that´s very optimistic! The big oil crisis is much much nearer than that! We´re already on the brink.
For aviation I don´t really see any alternatives to oil based fuels. Hydrogen isn´t gonna work. It requires huge tanks and, like somebody said before, you need a lot of energy to even produce it! Getting oil out of the tar sands doesn´t make things much easier as well. That also takes an incredible amount of energy to extract!
So I think that, already in a few years time, flying will again only be possible for the wealthy and rich.
Read some more information on this site and the links provided there:
http://www.oildecline.com
For aviation I don´t really see any alternatives to oil based fuels. Hydrogen isn´t gonna work. It requires huge tanks and, like somebody said before, you need a lot of energy to even produce it! Getting oil out of the tar sands doesn´t make things much easier as well. That also takes an incredible amount of energy to extract!
So I think that, already in a few years time, flying will again only be possible for the wealthy and rich.
Read some more information on this site and the links provided there:
http://www.oildecline.com
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Originally Posted by jondc9
o
I even once witnessed a turbine powered auto at a fair back in '64 I think. not a jet pushing the thing like on the salt flats, but hooked up to a transmission like a large lincoln or cadillac.
jon
bring back NERVA
I even once witnessed a turbine powered auto at a fair back in '64 I think. not a jet pushing the thing like on the salt flats, but hooked up to a transmission like a large lincoln or cadillac.
jon
bring back NERVA
From Wikpedia:
In 1950, designer F. R. Bell and Chief Engineer Maurice Wilks from British car manufacturers Rover unveiled the first car powered with a gas turbine engine. The two-seater JET1 had the engine positioned behind the seats, air intake grilles on either side of the car and exhaust outlets on the top of the tail. During tests, the car reached top speeds of 140 km/h, at a turbine speed of 50,000 rpm. The car ran on petrol, paraffin or diesel oil, but fuel consumption problems proved insurmountable for a production car. It is currently on display at the London Science Museum. Rover and the BRM Formula One team joined forces to produce a gas turbine powered coupe, which entered the 1963 24 hours of Le Mans, driven by Graham Hill and Richie Ginther. It averaged 107.8 mph (173 km) and had a top speed of 142 mph (229 km/h).
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Gtl or gas to liquid
What helps is a fuel that is stable at the pressures and temperatures encountered as well as having high calorific value. Liquid hydrogen does not do too well in this regard and alcohol is low in oomph.
Thirty years ago in the UK and still today in Hong Kong is a process that can contribute but needs development in parts. I refer to the catalytic rich gas process. Okay the front third was to do with naphtha, a low grade petrol going to waste. Forget about that bit for now. This feedstock was reformed into two parts hydrogen and one part carbon monoxide that was then carburetted with partially reformed naphtha to yield "town gas", a substitute for coal gas. And still is in use (search "Towngas", Hong Kong).
That if you like is the middle third. Today much industrial alcohol, esters, polyesters and some plastics comes from taking this synthesis gas and catalysing it first into alcohol and then higher hydrocarbons. This is the GTL technology, the third third, that is highly prized by Davy Technology, Johnson-Matthey (catalysts), and a host of others including every chemical and petroleum company in the world. They know that if they can get their hands on hydrogen and carbon monoxide all the rest is proven cheap technology. And a licence to print money.
Hydrogen is the easy part. From water releasing oxygen into the air. The difficult but not impossible part but requiring large amounts of energy is reducing carbon dioxide from the air catalytically into carbon monoxide. It can be done and if you need an artificial higher hydrocarbon because none is economically recoverable from natural sources then you have to pay for it. Nuclear power electricity? Perhaps. But needs must when the devil drives.
At the moment there is no need beyond keeping the research simmering away on the back burner (dreadful pun).
But for sure you can't lay a ruler on sales/travel graphs and predict away in isolation while others cientists are warning of a step function in world temperature rise, floods and horsemen riding about committing all sorts of unpleasant things.
Globalisation has fragmented rather than cemented global co-operation and in the face of USA, India, China what little old England and Aussie can do is like farting against the wind. Yet paradoxically if every country acted locally to secure its infrastructure and farm land against the inevitable floods it would be money better spent because nothing short of world wide catastrophe will convince mankind now.
But chin up! Man can produce an acceptable oil fuel at a price. Or else wait 400 million years and we shall be squashed up into oil to be burnt by whom?
I used to work for Bee Pee by the way but not as anything too bright. I have written Flight International many times offering an article but I have come to the conclusion that their journos are plain hacks and would not know their situpon from the bendy bit in the middle of their arm.
I'll leave you in peace but remember this - you heard it on pprune - gas-to-liquid technology is where the hot money in research is at, and furthermore makes a great deal of everyday stuff already. In thirty years she'll be commonplace. That's if we're still here.
James!
Thirty years ago in the UK and still today in Hong Kong is a process that can contribute but needs development in parts. I refer to the catalytic rich gas process. Okay the front third was to do with naphtha, a low grade petrol going to waste. Forget about that bit for now. This feedstock was reformed into two parts hydrogen and one part carbon monoxide that was then carburetted with partially reformed naphtha to yield "town gas", a substitute for coal gas. And still is in use (search "Towngas", Hong Kong).
That if you like is the middle third. Today much industrial alcohol, esters, polyesters and some plastics comes from taking this synthesis gas and catalysing it first into alcohol and then higher hydrocarbons. This is the GTL technology, the third third, that is highly prized by Davy Technology, Johnson-Matthey (catalysts), and a host of others including every chemical and petroleum company in the world. They know that if they can get their hands on hydrogen and carbon monoxide all the rest is proven cheap technology. And a licence to print money.
Hydrogen is the easy part. From water releasing oxygen into the air. The difficult but not impossible part but requiring large amounts of energy is reducing carbon dioxide from the air catalytically into carbon monoxide. It can be done and if you need an artificial higher hydrocarbon because none is economically recoverable from natural sources then you have to pay for it. Nuclear power electricity? Perhaps. But needs must when the devil drives.
At the moment there is no need beyond keeping the research simmering away on the back burner (dreadful pun).
But for sure you can't lay a ruler on sales/travel graphs and predict away in isolation while others cientists are warning of a step function in world temperature rise, floods and horsemen riding about committing all sorts of unpleasant things.
Globalisation has fragmented rather than cemented global co-operation and in the face of USA, India, China what little old England and Aussie can do is like farting against the wind. Yet paradoxically if every country acted locally to secure its infrastructure and farm land against the inevitable floods it would be money better spent because nothing short of world wide catastrophe will convince mankind now.
But chin up! Man can produce an acceptable oil fuel at a price. Or else wait 400 million years and we shall be squashed up into oil to be burnt by whom?
I used to work for Bee Pee by the way but not as anything too bright. I have written Flight International many times offering an article but I have come to the conclusion that their journos are plain hacks and would not know their situpon from the bendy bit in the middle of their arm.
I'll leave you in peace but remember this - you heard it on pprune - gas-to-liquid technology is where the hot money in research is at, and furthermore makes a great deal of everyday stuff already. In thirty years she'll be commonplace. That's if we're still here.
James!
Supercalifragilistic
expialidocious
expialidocious
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Originally Posted by tilewood
This may have been posted already in which case I apologise.
I seem to recall a scientist stating that hydrogen power is indeed
very clean.
The drawback is that it takes more hydrocarbon energy to extract and
refine hydrogen than the power it actually produces!!
I seem to recall a scientist stating that hydrogen power is indeed
very clean.
The drawback is that it takes more hydrocarbon energy to extract and
refine hydrogen than the power it actually produces!!
Scourge of Bad Airline Management!
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How does splitting water to produce hydrogen using solar, wind, wave, nuclear or biomass to generate the electricity to do it use more hydrocarbon energy than the hydrogen can deliver?
Funny to read the article by Sir Richard Branson. I read something similar recently, may have been an in flight mag, or Fortune or something - in which SRB was saying that he didn't intend to use ethanol in the aircraft, but increasing use of ethanol (in cars, trains, ships, buses etc etc) would eke out remaining supplies of oil so that current aircraft could go on a lot longer.
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Parallel thread in "Questions".
I suspect this question pops up with some regularity.
Re Hydrogen: It is not a natural fuel here on Earth. It must be manufactured; the BTU's you feed into its synthesis are recovered when it's burned (minus some process losses).
Re "nuculer": 2-3 guys in my lunch bunch began their careers on the ANP program. They warn the rest of us not to get too close...
I suspect this question pops up with some regularity.
Re Hydrogen: It is not a natural fuel here on Earth. It must be manufactured; the BTU's you feed into its synthesis are recovered when it's burned (minus some process losses).
Re "nuculer": 2-3 guys in my lunch bunch began their careers on the ANP program. They warn the rest of us not to get too close...
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Very interesting thread. Thanks for the information on the USAF X-6 (?) project too - the nuclear bomber program. The NASA X program only listed it as "cancelled". I always wondered what happened with it. Sorry for not adding anything...just wanted to say thanks! 
Psychophysiological entity
Based on little more than intuition, my feeling is that within a few years we will see acres, if not square miles, of beautiful modern aircraft parked waiting for a solution. Fiddling around with simulated hydrocarbons will be akin to fitting a gas bag to the roof of a car in WWII.
Huge fortunes, then the dying remnants of fortunes, will be thrown at the problem in a belated last-ditch attempt to continue life as we know it. I suspect that much of such funding will be spent on finding a way to cause the conversion of matter into energy–via a direct coupling with the universe. Science fiction? Well, perhaps, but right now we are seeing the specter of a fuel-less future, while at the some time, a feint image of the holy grail of propulsion.
There is little or no use in achieving a functional and safe source of atomic power in an aircraft, if we have no means of causing it to propel the vessel efficiently; using such advanced energy to continue to squirt us through the turbulent atmosphere would be preposterous.
Right now, research into particle physics shows promise of a new generation of propulsion. But that's all it is, a promise. Dan Brown is jut a tad ahead of his time I'm afraid, but I have no doubt where a good proportion of the GNP of all the major nations should be going...right now.
Life without transport will not just contract back into a warm sepia tinted existence for folk that live in pleasant villages, it will be chaotic...and deadly. If you don't think that's true, you haven't been watching the increasing need for gated, and guarded communities. The fabric of society is creaking already...even while it is still oiled.
Huge fortunes, then the dying remnants of fortunes, will be thrown at the problem in a belated last-ditch attempt to continue life as we know it. I suspect that much of such funding will be spent on finding a way to cause the conversion of matter into energy–via a direct coupling with the universe. Science fiction? Well, perhaps, but right now we are seeing the specter of a fuel-less future, while at the some time, a feint image of the holy grail of propulsion.
There is little or no use in achieving a functional and safe source of atomic power in an aircraft, if we have no means of causing it to propel the vessel efficiently; using such advanced energy to continue to squirt us through the turbulent atmosphere would be preposterous.
Right now, research into particle physics shows promise of a new generation of propulsion. But that's all it is, a promise. Dan Brown is jut a tad ahead of his time I'm afraid, but I have no doubt where a good proportion of the GNP of all the major nations should be going...right now.
Life without transport will not just contract back into a warm sepia tinted existence for folk that live in pleasant villages, it will be chaotic...and deadly. If you don't think that's true, you haven't been watching the increasing need for gated, and guarded communities. The fabric of society is creaking already...even while it is still oiled.
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A very interesting thread indeed, but I'm afraid the problem is much more complex then that.
Only about a third of crude is being refined for the use of propulsion of some sort (air, land and sea) Obviously, if we have no more fuel we have no means to power our conventional propulsion systems. Not only that, but think about lubricants. Sure, Skydrol is synthetic and many other lub's and greases are synthetic nowadays, but in order produce those synthetics we need chemicals.
Now another third of crude is being refined for medicine, chemicals and composite material such as plastic and rubber etc. Look around in your cockpit, galley, office and home. Lots of plastic-fantastic, rubber and other crude refined materials or derivatives. Take for example your standard XY ballpoint pen – everything but the metal tip (including the ink) is a crude derivative of some sort. Your clothing, your paint on the wall, your medicine and for your ladies the make up too just to mention a few.
The last third is used for the production of heat for private homes, industries power plants etc.
So if and when we run out of crude we'll be cold and miserable with reduced capacity of movement and a much reduced standard of living altogether. Even if we could theoretically power an aircraft with ethanol or nuclear reactors we'd still need lubricants, rubber and composite materials. I think all in all, not much will work once we run out of crude.
Only about a third of crude is being refined for the use of propulsion of some sort (air, land and sea) Obviously, if we have no more fuel we have no means to power our conventional propulsion systems. Not only that, but think about lubricants. Sure, Skydrol is synthetic and many other lub's and greases are synthetic nowadays, but in order produce those synthetics we need chemicals.
Now another third of crude is being refined for medicine, chemicals and composite material such as plastic and rubber etc. Look around in your cockpit, galley, office and home. Lots of plastic-fantastic, rubber and other crude refined materials or derivatives. Take for example your standard XY ballpoint pen – everything but the metal tip (including the ink) is a crude derivative of some sort. Your clothing, your paint on the wall, your medicine and for your ladies the make up too just to mention a few.
The last third is used for the production of heat for private homes, industries power plants etc.
So if and when we run out of crude we'll be cold and miserable with reduced capacity of movement and a much reduced standard of living altogether. Even if we could theoretically power an aircraft with ethanol or nuclear reactors we'd still need lubricants, rubber and composite materials. I think all in all, not much will work once we run out of crude.
"The INTRODUCER"
Ramasseur des pommes
Hydrogen power is a leading contender, and research appears quite well-advanced:
Solar-Produced Hydrogen
More Solar-Produced Hydrogen
If it proves to be commercially viable, sun-blessed countries will become major energy producers; something those of us in cloudier and more temperate climes need to consider. I suspect we'll end up "hedging our bets" and rely on a number of different renewable energy sources.
AppleMacster
Solar-Produced Hydrogen
More Solar-Produced Hydrogen
If it proves to be commercially viable, sun-blessed countries will become major energy producers; something those of us in cloudier and more temperate climes need to consider. I suspect we'll end up "hedging our bets" and rely on a number of different renewable energy sources.
AppleMacster
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--As the legacy petrochemical supplies become less available, their cost will increase.
--At some price level (appx equal to current petroleum prices, in Brazil) the cost of producing fuel from fermenting weeds or pommes frittes or methane-rich cows will equal the cost of equivalent fossil fuel. This will dramatically reduce the demand for fossil fuel futures and force sharp breaks in price. Supply demand will oscillate for a century or more, but 'free-market' economics will eventually lubricate a relatively smooth transition from Petroleum to the Panopoly of alternate fuels and energy sources, even as global energy demands increase.
--What the oil Cassandras are seeing now is really just a cloud, not the sky falling.
--If we can clean up our wasteful uses of energy in the process, that would not be so bad, tho. Unfortunately, travel for 'entertainment' might be one of the first wasteful uses to come under pressure.
--At some price level (appx equal to current petroleum prices, in Brazil) the cost of producing fuel from fermenting weeds or pommes frittes or methane-rich cows will equal the cost of equivalent fossil fuel. This will dramatically reduce the demand for fossil fuel futures and force sharp breaks in price. Supply demand will oscillate for a century or more, but 'free-market' economics will eventually lubricate a relatively smooth transition from Petroleum to the Panopoly of alternate fuels and energy sources, even as global energy demands increase.
--What the oil Cassandras are seeing now is really just a cloud, not the sky falling.
--If we can clean up our wasteful uses of energy in the process, that would not be so bad, tho. Unfortunately, travel for 'entertainment' might be one of the first wasteful uses to come under pressure.
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When the fuel runs out
If only existing oil were used only for fuel. Look at the ludicrous amount of non-essential plastic packaging on almost every product these days. All of this packaging is produced from oil. The taxing of excess plastic packaging would already help extend the time that we can still use oil as a fuel for transport.
Slightly off subject, but can anyone tell me why the diesel-electric principle used in trains cannot be used for private cars or at least commercial trucks? In this system a diesel (or turbine) runs at constant speed (greatly reducing consumption) and produces electricity through an attached generator. The electricity drives the wheels (in fact each wheel could become an electric motor in itself - the axle being the stator and the wheel the rotor). 4-wheel drive is achieved electronically rather than mechanically, gearbox is redundant and braking can be electric and regenerative.
Slightly off subject, but can anyone tell me why the diesel-electric principle used in trains cannot be used for private cars or at least commercial trucks? In this system a diesel (or turbine) runs at constant speed (greatly reducing consumption) and produces electricity through an attached generator. The electricity drives the wheels (in fact each wheel could become an electric motor in itself - the axle being the stator and the wheel the rotor). 4-wheel drive is achieved electronically rather than mechanically, gearbox is redundant and braking can be electric and regenerative.
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remember this too
Who says when oil runs out and global warming seriously kicks in that there will still be billions of people? There won't!
Provided that the population keeps above a certain critical mass advanced technology including nuclear power and steel-making may remain. With the oceans denuded of life scientists will be searching for a process to make a synthetic whale. Oil!
The supra-hot countries such as Russia, Siberia, Alaska, Yukon, Canada and the Maritimes will form a Confederation of Independent States (CIS).
In the frozen wastes of Africa they will just about get one VOR working by robbing parts from the NDB.
In Oz they'll blame the cold weather on the lack of Japanese tourists.
But for those still around, there will be masses of oil. At least 20 litres per person, maybe more.
One day two brothers, blacksmiths in the frozen tundra of Texas, wondering where the birds bo in winter and why they always are boeing north will invent the bicycle. Their names will be "Oh" and "U-U". Yes. Wright Oh and Wright Dubbya.
Unfortunately the chain rusts and they get arrested for riding their bicycle without a light. With them, for a brief moment the flame of invention flickers and goes out. Ten minutes later the cat goes out.
Man is now completely alone in the dark. You're only ever interested in one thing says Eve. Thinking as always as she masticates seal-hide of a nice new pair of Chew shoes.
Provided that the population keeps above a certain critical mass advanced technology including nuclear power and steel-making may remain. With the oceans denuded of life scientists will be searching for a process to make a synthetic whale. Oil!
The supra-hot countries such as Russia, Siberia, Alaska, Yukon, Canada and the Maritimes will form a Confederation of Independent States (CIS).
In the frozen wastes of Africa they will just about get one VOR working by robbing parts from the NDB.
In Oz they'll blame the cold weather on the lack of Japanese tourists.
But for those still around, there will be masses of oil. At least 20 litres per person, maybe more.
One day two brothers, blacksmiths in the frozen tundra of Texas, wondering where the birds bo in winter and why they always are boeing north will invent the bicycle. Their names will be "Oh" and "U-U". Yes. Wright Oh and Wright Dubbya.
Unfortunately the chain rusts and they get arrested for riding their bicycle without a light. With them, for a brief moment the flame of invention flickers and goes out. Ten minutes later the cat goes out.
Man is now completely alone in the dark. You're only ever interested in one thing says Eve. Thinking as always as she masticates seal-hide of a nice new pair of Chew shoes.
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Originally Posted by groundbum
Geez, even BushyBoy yesterday realised there was an issue with using so much oil! Only 10 years behind the rest of the world. Wonder if he'll massively increase taxes on gas guzzling 4x4s?
S
S
So in XX years time we wll be short of energy and short of food! So I guess none of us will be able to afford to travel.
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Hydrogen is attractive primarily for its low-emissions exhaust (namely H2O), but unattractive for its 1) cryogenic storage and 2) very low density (huge storage volume).
Methane is less of an obstacle on both counts. Besides, recent exploration suggests that frozen methane fields occur naturally, perhaps in commercial quantities.
Methane is less of an obstacle on both counts. Besides, recent exploration suggests that frozen methane fields occur naturally, perhaps in commercial quantities.
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bzh
I read the article on altenative energy in the Independent recently. Bio, possibly with an addative to prevent freezing, will do the job and smell better too.
I wonder if the oil companies are going to buy up all the corn oil and rape seed farms.
VP TAA
I read the article on altenative energy in the Independent recently. Bio, possibly with an addative to prevent freezing, will do the job and smell better too.
I wonder if the oil companies are going to buy up all the corn oil and rape seed farms.
VP TAA
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Of course, when the OPEC juice runs out or the global environmental damage has come to a point were burning fossil fuel is just no longer an option the oil companies will whoop out all the plans of alternative fuels they've collected over the years and save our day. Be it methane, ethanol, hydrogen etc. its all there already….
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Originally Posted by N380UA
Of course, when the OPEC juice runs out or the global environmental damage has come to a point were burning fossil fuel is just no longer an option the oil companies will whoop out all the plans of alternative fuels they've collected over the years and save our day. Be it methane, ethanol, hydrogen etc. its all there already….
