How will flight be powered when fossil fuel runs out?
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Boeing and Airbus talk about producing so many thousand airframes over the next 2 decades, new runways being built, all very positive for aviation.
China, India and other eastern economies booming, oil consumption 80 million barrels a day plus.
Read "the end of oil" by robertson, there is no where near as much left as we think, with the current and increasing consumption rate, the easy to get oil could be gone in the next two decades leaving expensive and difficult to get supplies under the arctic etc.
There will have to be a major change in our lives, cars, trains etc may have electric power, there is nothing that I know of under development to replace a jet engine, will it be the end of aviation as we know it?
These times may not be as far ahead as we were lead to think.
This subject seems to recieve very little attention and investment, maybe we should all wake up to a future without oil?
China, India and other eastern economies booming, oil consumption 80 million barrels a day plus.
Read "the end of oil" by robertson, there is no where near as much left as we think, with the current and increasing consumption rate, the easy to get oil could be gone in the next two decades leaving expensive and difficult to get supplies under the arctic etc.
There will have to be a major change in our lives, cars, trains etc may have electric power, there is nothing that I know of under development to replace a jet engine, will it be the end of aviation as we know it?
These times may not be as far ahead as we were lead to think.
This subject seems to recieve very little attention and investment, maybe we should all wake up to a future without oil?
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Ethanol: See here what Dickie Branson says about it:
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10066397/
Virgin Airways eyes ethanol
Most of the discussion I see on alternative fuel source focuses on cars, but I've long wondered what's going to happen with the airlines. At least one of them is taking an aggressive look at alternative fuel sources, hoping to replace "some or all" of the 700 million gallons of fuel it currently uses each year with ethanol.
Tired of skyrocketing jet fuel prices, Virgin Atlantic Airways boss Richard Branson said on Wednesday he plans to turn his back on hydrocarbons and use plant waste to power his fleet.
“We are looking for alternative fuel sources. We are going to start building cellulosic ethanol plants (to make) fuel that is derived from the waste product of the plant,” he told Reuters in an interview in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates.
“It is 100 percent environmentally friendly and I believe it’s the future of fuel, and over the next 20 or 30 years I think it actually will replace the conventional fuel that you get out of the ground.”
By the way you can make ethanol from cellulose (trees, plants etc.)
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/10066397/
Virgin Airways eyes ethanol
Most of the discussion I see on alternative fuel source focuses on cars, but I've long wondered what's going to happen with the airlines. At least one of them is taking an aggressive look at alternative fuel sources, hoping to replace "some or all" of the 700 million gallons of fuel it currently uses each year with ethanol.
Tired of skyrocketing jet fuel prices, Virgin Atlantic Airways boss Richard Branson said on Wednesday he plans to turn his back on hydrocarbons and use plant waste to power his fleet.
“We are looking for alternative fuel sources. We are going to start building cellulosic ethanol plants (to make) fuel that is derived from the waste product of the plant,” he told Reuters in an interview in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates.
“It is 100 percent environmentally friendly and I believe it’s the future of fuel, and over the next 20 or 30 years I think it actually will replace the conventional fuel that you get out of the ground.”
By the way you can make ethanol from cellulose (trees, plants etc.)
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Ethanol is quite popular in Sweden. The fuel is called E85 and is 85% ethanol and 15% petrol. There are two problems. You get less miles per tank, and the car doesn't start when it is cold. All E85 cars have block heaters to prewarm the engine, but what do you do in the car park? But here the fuel is cheaper than petrol, and the cars are about the same price so it is popular amongst those who can live with the disadvantages. Also these cars are exempt from the congestion charge in Stockholm. But if you can live with the range decreases then I don't see why not for aircraft.
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I reckon once reality starts to bite then fossil fuel will be reserved for applications that really need it such as planes and fire engines. Electricity can be generated from nuclear, cars can run on hydrogen and electricity if they have to, etc. So it'll be mega rationed for essential applications only. I reckon no more than 20 years until this starts... Geez, even BushyBoy yesterday realised there was an issue with using so much oil! Only 10 years behind the rest of the world. Wonder if he'll massively increase taxes on gas guzzling 4x4s?
S
S
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This would get the NIMBYs up in arms:
http://www.megazone.org/ANP/
Quote:
The NEPA contract was with the Fairchild Engine & Airframe Co., and the work was conducted at Oak Ridge. By the end of 1948 the USAF had invested approximately ten million dollars in the program.[7] Extensive studies were conducted under NEPA from 1946 until 1951, at which time it was replaced by the joint Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) / USAF ANP program. The ANP program set forth the ambitious goal of full-scale development of aircraft reactor and engine systems. One of the factors that led to the creation of the ANP program was a study done at MIT by a group convened by the AEC in 1948 to look at the potential uses of atomic powered flight. "This study group, known as the Lexington Project, came to the conclusion that nuclear aircraft (manned) were likely less difficult than nuclear ramjets, which, in turn, would be less difficult than nuclear rockets to develop."[8] Ironically, this turned out to be the reverse of the proper order of difficulty, as later research and development would prove. Although nuclear ramjets, under Project Pluto, and nuclear rockets, under Project Rover, were successfully tested at the levels needed for operational use, an operational level atomic aircraft powerplant was never developed. In 1954, Raymond Clare Briant, who was then the director of the ANP Project stated that "manned nuclear aircraft pose the most difficult engineering development job yet attempted within this century."[9]
http://www.megazone.org/ANP/
Quote:
The NEPA contract was with the Fairchild Engine & Airframe Co., and the work was conducted at Oak Ridge. By the end of 1948 the USAF had invested approximately ten million dollars in the program.[7] Extensive studies were conducted under NEPA from 1946 until 1951, at which time it was replaced by the joint Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) / USAF ANP program. The ANP program set forth the ambitious goal of full-scale development of aircraft reactor and engine systems. One of the factors that led to the creation of the ANP program was a study done at MIT by a group convened by the AEC in 1948 to look at the potential uses of atomic powered flight. "This study group, known as the Lexington Project, came to the conclusion that nuclear aircraft (manned) were likely less difficult than nuclear ramjets, which, in turn, would be less difficult than nuclear rockets to develop."[8] Ironically, this turned out to be the reverse of the proper order of difficulty, as later research and development would prove. Although nuclear ramjets, under Project Pluto, and nuclear rockets, under Project Rover, were successfully tested at the levels needed for operational use, an operational level atomic aircraft powerplant was never developed. In 1954, Raymond Clare Briant, who was then the director of the ANP Project stated that "manned nuclear aircraft pose the most difficult engineering development job yet attempted within this century."[9]
Dog Tired
easy, two ways:
a) using hot air generated by those who 'run' the airlines to heat water, to make steam, to drive turbines, to run generators, to make electrix, to boil off oil from the sandy wastes of Northern Canada, to refine into Jet A1
or
b) pfm.
a) using hot air generated by those who 'run' the airlines to heat water, to make steam, to drive turbines, to run generators, to make electrix, to boil off oil from the sandy wastes of Northern Canada, to refine into Jet A1
or
b) pfm.
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Will Ethanol work in jet engines?
E85 is fine for piston engines - 105 octane, less engine wear, less pollution.
Freezing point is -114C so that's no problem. Anyone know if ethanol can be made to work in jet engines? .. if not we can always build some more Stratocruisers, Super Connies, DC-7C's .. bring back the romance of aviation!
TP
Freezing point is -114C so that's no problem. Anyone know if ethanol can be made to work in jet engines? .. if not we can always build some more Stratocruisers, Super Connies, DC-7C's .. bring back the romance of aviation!
TP
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One of the main problems with ethanol based eco-fuels is their propensity to absorb water. The mixture is entirely missible, as opposed to the usual scenario with oil/water or petrol/water mixes, where the petrol or oil floats on top of the water.
Therefore there won't be a visual clue as to the loss of grade of fuel or to the potential for corrosion. Obviously, with aircraft that are being used intensively, there will be little opportunity for problems to arise, but in the instance of aircraft that are stored, or used irregularly (as with much of the GA fleet), there might be difficulties.
I don't want to look for problems, as anything sensible that might be used as a solution to an inevitable shortage of petroleum based products should be welcomed, but as things stand there ethanol based fuel will create maintenance issues.
The
Therefore there won't be a visual clue as to the loss of grade of fuel or to the potential for corrosion. Obviously, with aircraft that are being used intensively, there will be little opportunity for problems to arise, but in the instance of aircraft that are stored, or used irregularly (as with much of the GA fleet), there might be difficulties.
I don't want to look for problems, as anything sensible that might be used as a solution to an inevitable shortage of petroleum based products should be welcomed, but as things stand there ethanol based fuel will create maintenance issues.
The
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Originally Posted by wsmempson
One of the main problems with ethanol based eco-fuels is their propensity to absorb water.....there won't be a visual clue as to the loss of grade of fuel or to the potential for corrosion......ethanol based fuel will create maintenance issues.
PP
Buzz off with BAF!!
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This may have been posted already in which case I apologise.
I seem to recall a scientist stating that hydrogen power is indeed
very clean.
The drawback is that it takes more hydrocarbon energy to extract and
refine hydrogen than the power it actually produces!!
I seem to recall a scientist stating that hydrogen power is indeed
very clean.
The drawback is that it takes more hydrocarbon energy to extract and
refine hydrogen than the power it actually produces!!
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Leftfield
While there would be a need to find an alternative fuel such as ethanol or filtered chip-fat, there may also be a change in the mode of transportation from jet ac to something like (cue uncontrollable laughter) .... airships! They have quite a good range and low fuel consumption as well as being able to carry outsize loads. Apart from that, they're rubbish.
But I digress. I would put my money on hydrogen-based fuel for a hydrocarbon replacement. Instability issues of hydrogen fuels would need to be addressed. Also, it is likely that the large amounts of hydrogen fuel required would need to be extracted from seawater, a process which needs enormous amounts energy, and so you're back to square one. I'm sure some bright spark will work it out.
But I digress. I would put my money on hydrogen-based fuel for a hydrocarbon replacement. Instability issues of hydrogen fuels would need to be addressed. Also, it is likely that the large amounts of hydrogen fuel required would need to be extracted from seawater, a process which needs enormous amounts energy, and so you're back to square one. I'm sure some bright spark will work it out.
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I'm sure some bright spark will work it out.
In general I think its important that people have a lot more respect for the oil that they use. When it's gone it's gone and it ain't coming back (well not for a few million years). We seem to have exhibited the most morally reprehensible wanton squandering of this resource.
A good place to understand what w're dealing with is a BBC radio program called 'The Crude Facts'. It used to be available on the BBC listen again website, not sure if it's still there.
When the oil is gone life will change beyond belief for us in the west. That said, best be off to work and burn a few tonnes!
By the way expect to see a lot more about this in the popular press in the future.
Last edited by bobmij; 1st Feb 2006 at 23:36.
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i understand that a jet engine will run on pretty much anything that will burn its just a question of getting the fuel air mix right.
Top Gear the other day, might have been a rerun but they had a car running on methane that was compressed and into a CNG tank on an old rover. Looked like it ran ok.
Top Gear the other day, might have been a rerun but they had a car running on methane that was compressed and into a CNG tank on an old rover. Looked like it ran ok.
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operational nuclear reactors have already flown. A flying test bed Convair B36 bomber contained radiation shielding and an operational reactor...they did not power the aircraft but were flying around to see if it could be done.
if you see an image of a B36 bomber with a giant radiation symbol painted on the vertical fin, than that is the one!
also, ideas for nuclear powered train locomotives have been around for along time...also turbine trains.
I even once witnessed a turbine powered auto at a fair back in '64 I think. not a jet pushing the thing like on the salt flats, but hooked up to a transmission like a large lincoln or cadillac.
jon
bring back NERVA
if you see an image of a B36 bomber with a giant radiation symbol painted on the vertical fin, than that is the one!
also, ideas for nuclear powered train locomotives have been around for along time...also turbine trains.
I even once witnessed a turbine powered auto at a fair back in '64 I think. not a jet pushing the thing like on the salt flats, but hooked up to a transmission like a large lincoln or cadillac.
jon
bring back NERVA
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The problem is already with us; see the increasingly difficult economics of 32-to 50-seater regional jets such as the Do328 Jet, EMB-135/145, CRJ100/200, etc. with a fuel price of US$ 60/barrel... Sooner or later, the problem will extend to the still popular 70-seaters (CRJ700, ERJ 170).
The recent upsurge in orders for more fuel-efficient aircraft such as the ATR42/72-500 is further proof.
Fuel costs are bound to replace wages as the no.1 cost for airlines in the medium term.
(As for trains needing to be electric-powered, that has been obvious for a long time overseas: in France, one can hardly find any fossil-fuel powered train anymore; they are nearly all electric powered - which means nuclear-powered in the French case).
Cheers
The recent upsurge in orders for more fuel-efficient aircraft such as the ATR42/72-500 is further proof.
Fuel costs are bound to replace wages as the no.1 cost for airlines in the medium term.
(As for trains needing to be electric-powered, that has been obvious for a long time overseas: in France, one can hardly find any fossil-fuel powered train anymore; they are nearly all electric powered - which means nuclear-powered in the French case).
Cheers
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Our elected leaders must surely see this coming, but nothing of great consequence is being done about it yet. 
We've got lots of coal ! - what about a coal powered craft ? - bit too smoky for you ?
We can use a reactor's electricity to create hydrogen. They are working on storage solutions for the big H - sponge-like solids are an interesting possibility.
We've got lots of coal ! - what about a coal powered craft ? - bit too smoky for you ?
We can use a reactor's electricity to create hydrogen. They are working on storage solutions for the big H - sponge-like solids are an interesting possibility.
Last edited by vapilot2004; 2nd Feb 2006 at 01:10.