Space weather warning - cruise at lower levels 15 - 18 Nov???

[RMC]

Can someone in the know make sense of this. I subscribed to a US space radiation website in the Summer and this is the first daily e-mail I have had which says anything other than "risk very low" / "No activity".
Anyone able to decode or provide some advice on which of these warnings are of most interest to aircrew?


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2005 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 822
(S06E55) produced two M-class flares: an M2.6 flare at 0421 UTC
and
an M3.9 flare at 1423 UTC. A Type II radio sweep was observed in
association with the M3.9 flare. Region 822 is a magnetic
beta-gamma spot group and has grown over the past 24 hours. The
remainder of the disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
at
moderate levels. If the region continues to grow, there is a
possibility for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated
period of active conditions from 0000 UTC to 0300 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class MÂ Â Â 50/50/50
Class XÂ Â Â 05/05/05
Proton    05/05/05
PCAFÂ Â Â Â Â Â green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed          14 Nov 092
Predicted  15 Nov-17 Nov 095/100/105
90 Day Mean       14 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active               20/20/20
Minor storm          10/10/10
Major-severe storm   05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active               25/25/25
Minor storm          15/15/15
Major-severe storm   05/05/05
 Â

[stue]

Eeeerrrrrr..............What??

[JustaFew]

Looks like space invaders screen. Does your subscription include a decode?

[Rabbit 1]

Total ignorance here too, but could it be tied to the Leonid meteor shower that happens around those dates?

[Groundloop]

Nothing to due with meteor showers. Possible solar flare activity on surface of sun. Sends high energy particles into space producing possible displays of Northern Lights, disruption to radio comms and possibly above normal levels of radiation at cruising altitudes.

Didn't Concorde have a radiation alert facility as cruise altitudes of FL600 or so meant less atmospheric absorption of solar radiation. If warning sounded immediate dscent to lower levels was required. Or did I just imagine that?

[SSC]

Assuming this isn't the one you've signed up to..... have a look at this site for some good background - and some nice pics.

http://www.spaceweather.com/

[snooky]

THIS article gives some shocking figures as to the radiation levels that can be experienced at high levels during solar storms.

It surprises me that when these events occur, lower levels are not mandatory.

[jmk]

I can help. Look at Part 3 of that forecast and specifically, look at the "Proton" probabilities. If those predictions are high -- >75% or so -- then be aware of an increased risk of a radiation storm that may affect airline ops. These effects would be most acute on polar flights.

[PAXboy]

It surprises me that when these events occur, lower levels are not mandatory.

Wot and burn more fuel that we cannot surcharge the pax for??? Or am I just too cynical for life on this planet?