747-400`s future

[747 forever]

4 engines 4 ever! So why don`t other airlines (mainly asians) get high capacity planes for its us route? JAL operate 2 planes on each american city. For a broke airline I think if it gets a high capacity plane it is gonna help them. They will need less crew, get less fees, and less drink food etc to load it with. Good eh?

[747 forever]

good news, Lufthansa will refurbish 10 747-400s starting this April. Not much change to the business class but economy will get PTVs. This is good. Plus a 747-400 stored in Hamburg will be brought back into service

[747 forever]

Looks like business is more important than the environment, well there will be the day were the government gives limits to how much planes are operated and that is when the big birds come in handy.

[Semu]

Back to the original question. Few pax -400s will be flying by 2020. There will be some in specialty niches, no doubt, and some VIP birds. The freighters will be around for a long long time for a simple reason: Airbus put the flight deck on the 380 on the centre deck so it will never make a cost effective nose loader (as well as looking like it has a receding hair line). I expect the 747-500 (-8F) will serve the specialty freight market for all of our lifetimes.

[K_9]

Originally Posted by 747 forever

Looks like business is more important than the environment, well there will be the day were the government gives limits to how much planes are operated and that is when the big birds come in handy.

Government will limit carbon emissions per seat-mile or lb(freight)-mile. As others have said repeatedly, it is not efficient to use a 500 passenger airplane on a route with only 50 passengers. Your suggestion to fly it once a week would never work, either--I don't want to fly from Indianapolis to Seattle and then wait in the airport for 4 days to catch a flight to Fairbanks on an A380. I could drive there in that time if I drank enough Red Bull.
Another reason: airplanes are extremely expensive and they don't make money by sitting on the ramp. If you're paying $100,000 a month for an airplane lease, do you want it to earn you money 4 times a month or 4 times a day?

[747 forever]

I think that short routes (within the country) will be replaced by trains. High speed trains are really efficient and on a national geographic channel episode the train makers are hopping to replace planes for short hauls. China has plans for that, they are already building the rails for it

[K_9]

Originally Posted by 747 forever

I think that short routes (within the country) will be replaced by trains. High speed trains are really efficient and on a national geographic channel episode the train makers are hopping to replace planes for short hauls. China has plans for that, they are already building the rails for it

Rail is about the most efficient mode of transportation out there. However, it will be quite some time before it is widely implemented and used in the United States. We're impatient and like our cars. Not to mention we are rather spread out and would require a prohibitively large amount of new infrastructure to serve anything other than major cities and whatever minor cities happen to be along those corridors and large enough to warrant a stop. Hopefully we can at least move forward with the plan to add that level of service, although it seems like the Republicans want us to keep driving Hummers everywhere instead.

[barit1]

Semu:

The (744) freighters will be around for a long long time for a simple reason: Airbus put the flight deck on the 380 on the centre deck so it will never make a cost effective nose loader...

What if someone invents a jacked-up cockpit a la the old Carvair/DC-4 conversion? This is aviation, and people are always pushing the envelope.

[K_9]

Originally Posted by barit1

Semu:

What if someone invents a jacked-up cockpit a la the old Carvair/DC-4 conversion? This is aviation, and people are always pushing the envelope.

I think, in all probability, we would be more likely to see a swing-tail modification (a la 747LCF)than a re-design of the nose section if it were done by a third-party. I think raising the cockpit would make for a very difficult retrofit on an airplane like the A380. Unless, of course, Airbus itself made the design change for a new freighter derivative. Probably wouldn't be economically viable, since the 747s and AN-124s handle most of that market, and as previously discussed in this thread there are going to be a lot of 747-400s changing over from passenger to cargo configurations. Not to mention FedEx's huge 777F order.

If anything larger were really required, they would be building more AN-225s.

[barit1]

K_9:

Rail is about the most efficient mode of transportation out there.

...But only under specific conditions. City-center to city-center, less than 400-500 miles, it can't be beat. Most any other situation, look elsewhere, because either local connections or enroute time will destroy the market appeal.

[K_9]

Originally Posted by barit1

K_9:

...But only under specific conditions. City-center to city-center, less than 400-500 miles, it can't be beat. Most any other situation, look elsewhere, because either local connections or enroute time will destroy the market appeal.

"Efficient" meaning fuel burn per freight mile or seat mile. I agree with you on the other points. There's a reason I've never taken a train in my life other than a trolley.

[747 forever]

thanks, what kind of airlines will? Golden ones e.g BA, virgin, united etc or second hand airlines e.g iran air, saudi arabian etc?

[747 forever]

wow, the 747 proved it self. My friend said he was flying from SFO to VHHH and there were high winds all over in the ocean and all trans pacific 77w were grounded. But the 747 took off on time. Passengers must be happy when that situation happens and a 747 is there

[barit1]

wow, the 747 proved it self. My friend said he was flying from SFO to VHHH and there were high winds all over in the ocean and all trans pacific 77w were grounded. But the 747 took off on time. ..

Wow, very incomplete data. Are we talking surface winds, winds aloft, ??? Why did a 747 w/crew just happen to be available? Was the triple range-limited? Let us know, Tell us more...

[K_9]

747-400 range: 7,260 nmi
777-300ER range: 7,930 nmi
747-400 normal cruise: Mach 0.85
777-300ER normal cruise: Mach 0.84

[11Fan]

Not to mention that things have been a little chaotic over the last few days. 747 forever seems unfazed though. A little surprising, given his location. That said, aparently, he's OK so I'm happy about that.

[mutt]

Considering what occurred in that area, I would guess that this has to do with ETOPS alternates rather than range.

Mutt

[747 forever]

Thanks mate, I am safe right now but it's chaos here. Im trying to escape japan but everything is overbooked. Nuclear radiation just hit Tokyo so everyone is panicking. Thank you everyone who is concerned, I really appreciate it

[TSR2]

B747-8 Intercontinental

First flight scheduled for Sunday 20th March.

[11Fan]

First flight scheduled for Sunday 20th March.

Give or take......

You can watch it here.

Boeing's New Airplane