MYT
Joined: Sep 1999
Posts: 783
Likes: 0
From: The Deep South (Sussex)
Speaking as someone who has become on first name terms with most liquidators...
The angel of death is moving around us once more Brothers and Sisters. Let us pray that she doesn't stop at our crewroom door for verily,no soul is safe from her tallons.
The angel of death is moving around us once more Brothers and Sisters. Let us pray that she doesn't stop at our crewroom door for verily,no soul is safe from her tallons.
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 210
Likes: 0
From: BHX
Stand 22, I'm afraid the media exposure (fairly or unfairly) goes with being a publicly quoted company on the stock exchange.
Exposed dubious accounting practices, a multitude of profit warnings, re-financing deadlines and the turnover of boardroom staff are likely to attract the interest of media vultures.
Lou Scannon, I disagree that TCX has not taken desperate measures. Redundancies, fleet reductions, pay cuts & freezes and an assortment of other cost-cutting measures were applied post Sep 11th. The German operation is now suffering the same pain the UK arm had to endure (13 757s taken out of service).
MYT took a gamble by not reducing capacity 2 years ago like the other charter operators and this unfortunately is why they are paying for it now.
Exposed dubious accounting practices, a multitude of profit warnings, re-financing deadlines and the turnover of boardroom staff are likely to attract the interest of media vultures.
Lou Scannon, I disagree that TCX has not taken desperate measures. Redundancies, fleet reductions, pay cuts & freezes and an assortment of other cost-cutting measures were applied post Sep 11th. The German operation is now suffering the same pain the UK arm had to endure (13 757s taken out of service).
MYT took a gamble by not reducing capacity 2 years ago like the other charter operators and this unfortunately is why they are paying for it now.
Joined: May 2001
Posts: 2,023
Likes: 170
From: uk
Disturbing to note is talk around the bazaars surrounding the query as to how the other players - BY, MON,AMM, TCX - will absorb MYT business when the axe falls - probably just idle gossip but this is a rumour forum !
Joined: Jan 2003
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 279
Likes: 17
From: Europe
@ middlepath
You can't really be serious about your statement. Take a look at LH, seems to be one of the most efficient airlines in the whole industry. And - if I'm not mistaken - they are german.
So long,
DBate
So long,
DBate
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 109
Likes: 0
From: UK
Beamer
The vultures have been making plans ever since this mess started, it is no rumour! You can't blame them they are all fighting for survival.
My guess is the German market is going to loose a big player and that will impact on the UK. Even if this does happen or if MYT fails it will not mean automatic salvation for the remaining operators as the market is still vulnerable to further pressures on the economy, increasing interest rates and fear of flying due security issues. The German owned UK operators are at the mercy of their parent company’s success and sadly no matter how well they do they will not be protected from a major collapse in Germany. Looking at the projected write downs at TC AG you could see LH pull out of this market and throw TC to the wolves that would leave TC UK very vulnerable indeed.
Even BA is still under threat; I doubt they would survive another 9/11. As it is they will need further large restructuring to survive.
The vultures have been making plans ever since this mess started, it is no rumour! You can't blame them they are all fighting for survival.
My guess is the German market is going to loose a big player and that will impact on the UK. Even if this does happen or if MYT fails it will not mean automatic salvation for the remaining operators as the market is still vulnerable to further pressures on the economy, increasing interest rates and fear of flying due security issues. The German owned UK operators are at the mercy of their parent company’s success and sadly no matter how well they do they will not be protected from a major collapse in Germany. Looking at the projected write downs at TC AG you could see LH pull out of this market and throw TC to the wolves that would leave TC UK very vulnerable indeed.
Even BA is still under threat; I doubt they would survive another 9/11. As it is they will need further large restructuring to survive.
Joined: May 2001
Posts: 2,023
Likes: 170
From: uk
EPRman/Spy
Thanks for replies - I know that at 'board level' these plans have been explored for a long time - I only mention the subject because there seems to be a gathering of pace on the flightline - engineers, handling agents etc which I had not heard until now.
I have a number of friends at MYT who I do not wish to see out of work but looking at prices and load factors throughout the industry I cannot help but see the term 'over-capacity' in my mind.
Thanks for replies - I know that at 'board level' these plans have been explored for a long time - I only mention the subject because there seems to be a gathering of pace on the flightline - engineers, handling agents etc which I had not heard until now.
I have a number of friends at MYT who I do not wish to see out of work but looking at prices and load factors throughout the industry I cannot help but see the term 'over-capacity' in my mind.
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 109
Likes: 0
From: UK
I have not seen any evidence myself Beamer and certainly there is no change or information being passed to the handling agents at Gatwick to whom I have spoken or the engineers. I would be surprised if companies were not making plans, they did the same last year, it makes good sense to be prepared but only time will tell. My view is MYT will limp on; my concern is for TC as the German situation according to a friend in the city is going to be very bad in the New Year. MYT’s books will look very good by comparison!
If MYT can hold on until then the landscape may change dramatically and depending on their position then, all may be well for the summer. This all assumes the economy stays stable and we have no major terrorist activity between now and then and bookings hold firm with good margins.
I think you will see some very big changes at MYT and if they are made I can see the company returning from the brink, if not it is just a question of time.
If MYT can hold on until then the landscape may change dramatically and depending on their position then, all may be well for the summer. This all assumes the economy stays stable and we have no major terrorist activity between now and then and bookings hold firm with good margins.
I think you will see some very big changes at MYT and if they are made I can see the company returning from the brink, if not it is just a question of time.
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 109
Likes: 0
From: UK
Apparently I can't post a short answer so I will give a longer one!
I agree the situation in the German market is going to come home to roost and have some dramatic effects on the UK. I think we will be looking at a very different situation in the New Year as the German operators will be forced to make massive changes to survive. This will without doubt inpact on UK German owned operators regardless of how well they may be doing.
Brace, Brace! Another bad year for the industry ahead!
I agree the situation in the German market is going to come home to roost and have some dramatic effects on the UK. I think we will be looking at a very different situation in the New Year as the German operators will be forced to make massive changes to survive. This will without doubt inpact on UK German owned operators regardless of how well they may be doing.
Brace, Brace! Another bad year for the industry ahead!
Terrier
Joined: Dec 1999
Posts: 564
Likes: 0
From: moonbase alpha
The difference with Cook's and MYT is this:
Thomas Cook have announced losses group wide, but can see an improving situation. The UK is profitable for them. Germany is not, but is recovering allegedly.
MYT are strapped with debt, and cannot wriggle free without selling the best parts of their businesses, which leaves all the under performing ones in the portfolio. Hardly a good starting point for recovery....
MYT are having to fire sale these assets to survive this winter, by their own admission.
Thomas Cook has two large parent shareholders in LUFTHANSA and KARSTADT QUELLE, who have publicly said this week that they are sticking with the plan and will support Thomas Cook at this time.
Spot the difference anyone?
Thomas Cook have announced losses group wide, but can see an improving situation. The UK is profitable for them. Germany is not, but is recovering allegedly.
MYT are strapped with debt, and cannot wriggle free without selling the best parts of their businesses, which leaves all the under performing ones in the portfolio. Hardly a good starting point for recovery....
MYT are having to fire sale these assets to survive this winter, by their own admission.
Thomas Cook has two large parent shareholders in LUFTHANSA and KARSTADT QUELLE, who have publicly said this week that they are sticking with the plan and will support Thomas Cook at this time.
Spot the difference anyone?
Joined: Jan 2001
Posts: 96
Likes: 0
MYT
Nature must take its course. It always did ....so what exactly is new here. I believe it is a well understood fact of business life in the western world that a company has a life span of 10 to 12 years before a cycle of renewal. Is this what we are seeing here perhaps. koi
Joined: Dec 1998
Posts: 125
Likes: 0
From: UK
Fire sale????? Don't think so tailscrape!! 
If we weren't getting a fair price for the businesses and we were selling all the businesses in desperation, then maybe you could call it that, but when MYT has refused a number of bidders for the likes of Cresta because they weren't bidding enough I don't think you can call it a fire sale.
Don't make the mistake of thinking that the German parents won't offload TC UK to protect their German interests!! They won't hesitate for a minute. I know you regard TC as "home" - your own words - but don't say things you know to be untrue, just to score points.
If we weren't getting a fair price for the businesses and we were selling all the businesses in desperation, then maybe you could call it that, but when MYT has refused a number of bidders for the likes of Cresta because they weren't bidding enough I don't think you can call it a fire sale. Don't make the mistake of thinking that the German parents won't offload TC UK to protect their German interests!! They won't hesitate for a minute. I know you regard TC as "home" - your own words - but don't say things you know to be untrue, just to score points.
Last edited by SLT; 16th November 2003 at 22:00.
Joined: Dec 1998
Posts: 125
Likes: 0
From: UK
Agreed dada!!. The banks have lent us (quite literally!) heavy support, and they're not about to withdraw it now! I have a feeling that as spy says, the picture is going to change a fair bit in the coming months.
Fingers crossed!!!
Fingers crossed!!!
Joined: Apr 2000
Posts: 257
Likes: 0
Tailscrape
I did not realise you were a moderator!
Beware, I have heard the same story from other management teams just before the light went out! Hope it is an improving situation for all concerned but the mess in Germany has been on it's way for a while and now I am afraid it is just starting to arrive!
As we are being forced to sell off non core businesses so will the Germans, TC and TC Ag may not be core to LH.
I did not realise you were a moderator!
Beware, I have heard the same story from other management teams just before the light went out! Hope it is an improving situation for all concerned but the mess in Germany has been on it's way for a while and now I am afraid it is just starting to arrive!
As we are being forced to sell off non core businesses so will the Germans, TC and TC Ag may not be core to LH.
Last edited by kinsman; 16th November 2003 at 23:39.
Terrier
Joined: Dec 1999
Posts: 564
Likes: 0
From: moonbase alpha
SLT,dada,kinsman
Your enthusiasm for all things "thunderbirds" is laudable. And I am not a moderator.
The reported facts are these:
MYT is having, byt it's chief exec's admission, to sell businesses to survive THIS WINTER. It faces a cash crunch.
MYT has had it's shareholder value diminished by it's wasteful management over the last 5 years.
MYT is now 20 odd % owned directly by the banks.
It's shares have slid to around 15p .
No one has bid for MYT because it is virtually bankrupt. No competitor will buy capacity from you in a sale at fancy prices, because the chances are that they may get it for nothing before next spring.
MYT has junk status amongst the credit community, meaning that if people were to lend you money you would pay more for it. And that you cannot afford.
Now, let's contrast that to the plight of Thomas Cook:
TCAG are making horrendous losses.
TCUK made a record profit.
The group has two main shareholders. Lufthansa and Karstadt Quelle. Both have reaffirmed their commitment to the group strategy.
No assets are being sold. Yet.
The company answers to two shareholders, not 200,000 like MYT do.
If TCUK were sold, then so be it. However they are a going profitable concern. So, unlike MYT the situation is different.
Personally, I wish we could all work in a stable environment. All pilot's should start on £100000 p.a. and have company ferraris. We don't though, and it is survival of the fittest.
Thomas Cook may not be in the best of health, but in the industry eyes, MYT have already been given a lethal dose of sodium pentathol and are not long for this world.
Bad news it is, but that is the way of it. Please feel free to come back and abuse me. It always happens when I tell the truth.
Your enthusiasm for all things "thunderbirds" is laudable. And I am not a moderator.
The reported facts are these:
MYT is having, byt it's chief exec's admission, to sell businesses to survive THIS WINTER. It faces a cash crunch.
MYT has had it's shareholder value diminished by it's wasteful management over the last 5 years.
MYT is now 20 odd % owned directly by the banks.
It's shares have slid to around 15p .
No one has bid for MYT because it is virtually bankrupt. No competitor will buy capacity from you in a sale at fancy prices, because the chances are that they may get it for nothing before next spring.
MYT has junk status amongst the credit community, meaning that if people were to lend you money you would pay more for it. And that you cannot afford.
Now, let's contrast that to the plight of Thomas Cook:
TCAG are making horrendous losses.
TCUK made a record profit.
The group has two main shareholders. Lufthansa and Karstadt Quelle. Both have reaffirmed their commitment to the group strategy.
No assets are being sold. Yet.
The company answers to two shareholders, not 200,000 like MYT do.
If TCUK were sold, then so be it. However they are a going profitable concern. So, unlike MYT the situation is different.
Personally, I wish we could all work in a stable environment. All pilot's should start on £100000 p.a. and have company ferraris. We don't though, and it is survival of the fittest.
Thomas Cook may not be in the best of health, but in the industry eyes, MYT have already been given a lethal dose of sodium pentathol and are not long for this world.
Bad news it is, but that is the way of it. Please feel free to come back and abuse me. It always happens when I tell the truth.