Pilot Shortage? - Really !!
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Pilot Shortage? - Really !!
The Times Of India on 21st October carried an article on shortage of pilots. It has some excerpts quoted from an interview based on an article that I wrote. For benefit of those who need more details, the article is reproduced below. I hope and wish it is helpful for the aspiring pilots in making a sensible and educated career choice.
Pilot Shortage? - Really !!
Aviation Scenario
The Indian aviation has seen exponential growth in past few years and given the fact that Indians have realised the benefits of now affordable air travel this growth is here to continue. Many new air carriers have commenced operations and quick addition of aircraft to their increasing fleets to cater to demand of passenger seats have resulted in a shortage of man power and infrastructure in aviation sector. Majority of this problem has resulted due to rapid growth and lack of planning and systematic expansion. Of the shortage, availability of pilots becomes more critical given the capital intensive nature and long gestation period for their training.
Infrastructure
The aviation authorities should have ensured that adequate infrastructure was put in place before this rapid growth was allowed. Inadequacy of operational infrastructure needs be addressed separately. However, instead of being planned in advance, the infrastructure growth for training aviation man power has been reactive to this growth and, therefore, unlikely to meet the demand in quick time. The training establishments are not geared to handle deluge of young aspirants enrolling for training. Delays in training due to shortage of training facilities have further increased the woes. The result is very clear- Trainees have been forced to seek expertise in training establishments over seas. Their training over seas has also resulted in loss of jobs which otherwise could have been provided by these establishments back home.
Pilots Under training
Shortage of man power has been over emphasised by media with limited dispersion of knowledge. Also the fact that aviation sector provides better remunerations than other sectors with a requirement of far lesser academic qualifications. The long gestation period and capital intensive nature of training resulted in few people opting for pilot training in the past. The sudden growth had a yawning gap between demand and availability partly resulting in remunerations also going up. The foregoing resulted in many youngsters opting for pilot training to make a good career for themselves. The result is for every one to see. Flying schools in the country have their hands full and at present the time frame for a new entrant extends beyond two years to get adequate flying experience for obtaining a Commercial Pilot’s Licence (CPL). Most of the trainees are rushing to foreign flying schools all over the globe including Philippines and Bosnia where the time frame for the flying training ranges from 8 to 15 months. Going by the number of successful class II medicals, there have been more than six thousand young Indians who have already embarked on pilot training programme in last 18 months. There is obvious and good reason for this number to continue increasing. Is the aviation growth good enough to absorb and fulfill dreams of all these young aspirants? The answer is an emphatic NO.
Order Position
Indian aviation today handles less than 400 aircraft including those in the general aviation. The current order position of all airlines for next five to ten years does not add up to another 500 aircraft. How is the country going to handle the air traffic is a matter of another discussion. To be very optimistic it can be assumed that not more than 500 aircraft would be inducted in Indian Aviation during next ten years time span .
Table 1
Sorry, the table couldnot be copied
Table 2
Sorry, again
The cumulative aircraft induction rate for the industry is expected to be 4 to 4.5 aircraft per month or roughly 45 to 55 aircraft per year.
Reality
Numbers. Present day policy requires a manning level of five sets of crew per aircraft. This would mean a demand of 5000 pilots in next five to ten years. Of these 2500 would be first Officers (Co Pilots), vacancy these current trainees would fill. This has been made possible by a quick revision of policy to allow fresh CPL holders to graduate to a Boeing/ Airbus class of aero planes which in the past was preferred only after an experience of 1500 to 2000 hours. Next ten years are going to provide approximately only 2500 CPL vacancies (500 per year)-where would then rest of the CPL holders go? What about those yet to embark on the training to fulfill their dream of flying and a good livelihood?
Commanders. After a period of approximately 3 years of flying on line as co pilots these CPL holders would be expected to graduate to a higher Airline Transport Pilot’s Licence (ATPL). This is an area where the shortage of pilots would remain till the present lot of CPL holders graduate to ATPL status. Then the remaining 2500 pilots would find their jobs. That would be gradual and ten years down the time. For these three years commanders’ vacancy would have to be filled by external sources as is being done.
Age and occupancy of vacancy. These pilot trainees are very young commencing training at young age of 18 years and once they fill the vacancy they can be expected to retain it till the age of 65 years. It clearly highlights that the vacancies there after would be created by new inductions dictated by future growth and those vacated by retirees.
Alternative jobs. The present policy permits an academic qualification of 10 plus 2 to obtain CPL. Due to excess numbers of CPL trainees many pilots will have to face disappointment of not getting a flying job. Also in case of any medical fitness difficulties the job of flying is not assured. Lower qualification of 10 plus 2 would make it more difficult for these pilots to get hired in alternative jobs.
Funding of training. Added to the problem is the fact that many of these trainees have obtained an education loan of 15 to 20 lakhs towards their training. How and who is going to service the loan for those pilots who would be without a job? Where would the funds come from to undertake further higher studies to qualify for alternative jobs? In the past we have already seen many pilots without a job for a period ranging from 8 to 10 years turning some of them into nervous wrecks. Few others found work in banks, as interior designers, in furniture shops, real estate, Rail locomotive and truck driving to keep the kitchen fire burning.
Historically General aviation in India has been lagging. Now also it has not expanded commensurate with commercial aviation and, therefore, is unlikely to provide enough job openings.
Where then can these pilots without jobs go?
What is needed?
The above facts have been brought out to highlight the reality of pilot shortage or otherwise in Indian aviation. It should not be viewed by young people as a note of discouragement. Instead, it should be used as a guidance for career and then to make an educated decision considering all the aspects.
Few improvements that can be envisaged to alleviate the problem are listed below.
Government & Policy
Put training infrastructure in place to cater to requirement of growth. This will also generate a few jobs.
Futuristic Aviation Policy to develop human resources.
Develop and encourage General Aviation for business, hobby and tourism.
Individuals
Seek career guidance instead of jumping on to the band wagon after reading media reports.
Take an educated and considered decision.
Keep alternative employment and education loan servicing plan in mind and may be decide to undertake CPL training after graduation. There is no hurry now because many of those in the pipe line at present are likely to miss the first boat and for a while.
Join the cadet/ in house training programmes started by some airlines like Spicejet and King Fisher.
Media
Like always, responsible and factual reporting instead of sensationalising or glamorizing the issues.
Captain R S Shekhawat
Technical and Development Pilot
Spicejet Ltd
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Good Perspective
I think this is about the best perspective given on the Indian Aviation Scenerio as is today and can be used as a good yardstick for wannabes.
Its really pathetic, the way Indian media feeds the public a daily diet of aviation news, without having an iota of insight into the subject.
Aeronotix.
Its really pathetic, the way Indian media feeds the public a daily diet of aviation news, without having an iota of insight into the subject.
Aeronotix.
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With all due respect to Captain Shekhawat this "paper" is indicative of the many aviation executives with their head in the sand.
The only concrete figure we see in this dissertation is the figure which indicates that the commercial jet fleet will double in the next 10 years. This is roughly in line with the Boeing and Airbus prediction but there is every chance that this is an understatement in India's case because both manufacturers have premised their figures on the highest growth in Asia and India (something this paper at least partly recognizes in its statement “exponential growth” in India). To simply focus on current aircraft orders ignores the fact that traditionally most aviation managers simply cannot plan more that a year in advance.
I am concerned at the assumptions made with no obvious research to back it up. Using the statement ”Going by the number of successful class II medicals” as an indicator of entrants into the profession gives no hard facts. How many medicals? How many candidates have gone through to training? “Flying schools in the country have their hands full” is simply a motherhood statement with no basis in fact.
The paper recognizes that the biggest shortage will be within the ranks of captains. Both crew members are required to operate the aircraft yet the paper has no explanation of where these captains will come from except to offer that 18 to 20 year olds can change seats after 3 years. This assumes they pass their training and achieve competency.
Another huge omission from this dissertation is the fact that every other airline around the world, which cannot supply its own national’s, is searching the globe for crew. Most of these offer more money and better conditions than in India. No account for this drain on numbers from both the Captain and F/O ranks seems to have been included!
Again with all due respect… I feel the only accurate information here is that young hopefuls should not be discouraged. If your local airlines have their heads in the sand your future is bright off shore.
The only concrete figure we see in this dissertation is the figure which indicates that the commercial jet fleet will double in the next 10 years. This is roughly in line with the Boeing and Airbus prediction but there is every chance that this is an understatement in India's case because both manufacturers have premised their figures on the highest growth in Asia and India (something this paper at least partly recognizes in its statement “exponential growth” in India). To simply focus on current aircraft orders ignores the fact that traditionally most aviation managers simply cannot plan more that a year in advance.
I am concerned at the assumptions made with no obvious research to back it up. Using the statement ”Going by the number of successful class II medicals” as an indicator of entrants into the profession gives no hard facts. How many medicals? How many candidates have gone through to training? “Flying schools in the country have their hands full” is simply a motherhood statement with no basis in fact.
The paper recognizes that the biggest shortage will be within the ranks of captains. Both crew members are required to operate the aircraft yet the paper has no explanation of where these captains will come from except to offer that 18 to 20 year olds can change seats after 3 years. This assumes they pass their training and achieve competency.
Another huge omission from this dissertation is the fact that every other airline around the world, which cannot supply its own national’s, is searching the globe for crew. Most of these offer more money and better conditions than in India. No account for this drain on numbers from both the Captain and F/O ranks seems to have been included!
Again with all due respect… I feel the only accurate information here is that young hopefuls should not be discouraged. If your local airlines have their heads in the sand your future is bright off shore.
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Pilots for India
Well, at least the paper from Captain R S Shekhawat has attempted to identify the situation and started an interesting debate on the subject. However, I tend to agree with Clive, and put the Captain's paper in the 'bar chat' (albeit very interesting bar chat) category.
As stated, the figures are rather simplistic, based essentially on the number of Class 2 medicals issued and the number of aircraft ordered.
(By the way, does the number of aircraft also include purchases of not-new aircraft?).
The fact of the matter is that, as an industry, we are notoriously bad at forecasting and foward planning.
Those of us who have seen a number of the (typically) eight-to-ten year boom / bust cycles can attest to that !
However, one thing is absolutely certain and that is that the rate of growth in the Indian aviation sector will continue to rise at an increasing rate for the forseeable future, as the economy strengthens and more citizens enjoy higher disposable (discretionary) incomes.
For sure, there will be growing pains: some of today's operators will not be around in a few years, having tasted the operating losses that accompany high and unrealistic expectations. However others will go from strength to strength, and the number of pilots required will continue to grow. Certainly, there is no point in persevering with 'foreign' pilots, and a strong localisation programme must be put in place.
As for letting the industry run ahead of the capabilities of the industry, regrettably, that is sometimes necessary in order to get things moving. And, besides, Captain R S Shekhawat, do you think that the Indian Government, with it's propensity for bureaucracy, would have happily invested billions in aviation infrastructure before they knew it was going to pay off?
I doubt.
Captain R S Shekhawat, many thanks for starting this interesting debate. I hope it continues as I have a specific interest in seeing young Indian lads and lasses get started on their aviation careers.
As stated, the figures are rather simplistic, based essentially on the number of Class 2 medicals issued and the number of aircraft ordered.
(By the way, does the number of aircraft also include purchases of not-new aircraft?).
The fact of the matter is that, as an industry, we are notoriously bad at forecasting and foward planning.
Those of us who have seen a number of the (typically) eight-to-ten year boom / bust cycles can attest to that !
However, one thing is absolutely certain and that is that the rate of growth in the Indian aviation sector will continue to rise at an increasing rate for the forseeable future, as the economy strengthens and more citizens enjoy higher disposable (discretionary) incomes.
For sure, there will be growing pains: some of today's operators will not be around in a few years, having tasted the operating losses that accompany high and unrealistic expectations. However others will go from strength to strength, and the number of pilots required will continue to grow. Certainly, there is no point in persevering with 'foreign' pilots, and a strong localisation programme must be put in place.
As for letting the industry run ahead of the capabilities of the industry, regrettably, that is sometimes necessary in order to get things moving. And, besides, Captain R S Shekhawat, do you think that the Indian Government, with it's propensity for bureaucracy, would have happily invested billions in aviation infrastructure before they knew it was going to pay off?
I doubt.
Captain R S Shekhawat, many thanks for starting this interesting debate. I hope it continues as I have a specific interest in seeing young Indian lads and lasses get started on their aviation careers.
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pilot shortage????
I agree with shekh's observation;and for those who know him u cannot doubt/question his math.Going by the indians in various flying schools at USA,Phillipines,Australia and NewZealand the figures are quite worrying.Added to this is the return of cadetpilot entrants to spicejet,kingfisher and after an interval of time AI Express.That leaves very few players in the market.My only question to the 'nay'sayers is: if u had the capital and clearennce to import 100 planes;pls tell me where u'll park them?While the future is bright for commander's ,the same is not the case for F/O's.Interview/written exam sucessrates are just about 30%;very different from a year and half ago, when a 10year lapsed CPL was gladly welcomed.Today the same chap won't stand a chance.
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The bottom line is that the shortage exists for experienced commanders and not for F/O's. The drain of talent overseas once again will only apply to experienced guys and not for the low time F/O. As the author(s) in previous posts have stated, it's the aspiring Indian pilot who will suffer the hype of the pilot shortage, not the expat Capt or the Indian Commander. In regards to upgrade to Commander, the hrs to reach this are minimums and just that.
Applicants have to pass a suitablity check before they are considered.
Applicants have to pass a suitablity check before they are considered.
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Using the statement ”Going by the number of successful class II medicals” as an indicator of entrants into the profession gives no hard facts. How many medicals?
No one is denying that aviation in India is growing... along with that the need for manpower, including F/D crew. The debate centres around the fact that the supply will outstrip the demand.
A more accurate figure... in my opinion can be derived by the number of guys training outside India who make a significant majority of trainee pilots. After having talked to quite a few new hires in my airline who have just returned from their training within the last 6-8 months, the scenario looks grim. One guy I spoke to just yesterday returned from Markham, Ontario in Feb 07 said that there are over 80 Indian students in various schools at that airport alone. That gives me an idea of the extent of trainees abroad (although unscientific). And that's just foreign trainees. The local guys and gals are just gravy.
And once these guys return it is fairly certain that the applicants for conversion papers will spike. And no dropouts at this stage. People will get their Indian license cos you're way past the PNR.
And remember all those cadets training? Well they should be making a bee line for India soon. Where does that leave the the self sponsored guys? In my airline there is a surplus of F/O's (and that's understating it). The new ab-initio batches have become smaller and smaller. Eventually, we won't be looking at guys off the street. All our future requirements will be met by the cadets. That's just my airline. A couple others are going to be in the same boat.
Greywings... you make a gr8 point about faulty forecasting. In this case these guys overestimated the growth. There was an article about the drying up of equity to finance expansion plans. Things are gonna get tighter and you cannot keep delaying break even points and expect shareholders to stand by and do nothing. KF/Deccan are reportedly talking to AB to defer/delay deliveries. Sign o' the times?
The infrastructural investment in India at this time would suffice to meet the needs at this time only. Those guys are always behind the 8 ball. It is frustrating to watch what I call uncoordinated asymmetric growth in this industry. With airlines growing the way they are the gov't will never catch up to match the needs which is typical of anything and everything as far as these babus go. There will ALWAYS be a crunch for landing slots, parking slots, ATC staff, terminal facilities. And the only entities that are going to suffer are the pax and the airlines.
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"...uncoordinated, asymmetric growth..."
av8r76, what a great phrase! Mind you, it applies equally across the entire industry, not only in India. We never quite manage to get the forecasting right. The same flying instructors who are currently so much in demand will soon be scratching a meagre existence again, until the next shortage comes around. Many of the ab initio trainees eagerly pursuing their new craft in foreign schools will learn that over-optimistic projections have resulted in a glut of low-time, highly-indebted inexperienced pilots, some of whom will never pursue a career in aviation.
But, that's aviation. It will never change, and the ones who time it just right will enjoy a career that is arguably more rewarding than any other.
At least, in my opinion.
But, that's aviation. It will never change, and the ones who time it just right will enjoy a career that is arguably more rewarding than any other.
At least, in my opinion.
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It is heartening to see that the above posting in this forum has generated some healthy discussion. With due respect to persons who have posted responses and no offence meant to any one I have following to submit.
A careful reading of the ‘paper’ would reveal that it was written for guidance of fresh aviators which means that once they qualify as aviators they would fill only first officers vacancy in an airline. Hence, the accent was on the fact that supply would outstrip the demand of first officers. Captains’ shortage was relegated to almost one sentence.
A few responses indicated that insufficient research was put into paper and details were hardly authentic.
I would definitely invite criticism and yet state that the flying training in India should fall into the ambit of unorganized sector. I am looking for some guidance. Can some one provide a lead to the source of authentic data as to how many youngsters are training abroad? I am not aware if such source exists.
In the absence of such data bank, centralized or otherwise, one had to start with certain assumptions that could be reliable and represented the reality. The class I/II medical was thought to be reliable because hardly would any one approach DGCA/ IAM/ CME for an medical appointment, wait for almost an year, spend money from own pocket for all medical tests and obtain DGCA certificate for having cleared it; merely for the kick of it! The intent to ‘go for the licence’ is there and hence all this trouble. Any sensible person would put money into flying training only after ensuring medical fitness. It would, therefore, be safe to assume that most of successful medicals would lead to CPL training. As far as the authenticity of 6000 successful class I/II medicals is concerned, it can be verified from the DGCA!!
As some one rightly pointed out that the flying schools abroad are training many Indians, as many as 80 in a single school. This does substantiate above assumption. The applications by these candidates to appear for written CPL exams have not surfaced so far probably because of the CAR Revision issued on 7th August, 2006. The relevant para is quoted below:-
“7.3 Commercial Pilot Licence (CPL);
The applicant should have:
(a) Passed 10+2 standard examination with Physics and Mathematics Subjects
from a recognized Board / University or its equivalent examination.
(b) Private Pilot License ( PPL) OR a minimum of 50 hours of flying training
experience.
(c) Attended the ground training classes with DGCA approved Flying / Ground
Training Institutes or Defence Establishments on the subjects of a category of
license in which the applicant desires to appear.”
This requirement did not exist earlier and any number of candidates could appear for written papers. Not any more. Only the serious ones who have shelled out enough money to fly at least 50 hours and attend requisite lectures in an institute can. They better be serious.
Most of these candidates have chosen to obtain CPL overseas and then convert it to Indian licence. Therefore, the number of applicants for CPL exams should start increasing som where in the beginning of next year.
Just to get the picture of reality right, consider the following:-
The aircraft induction rate in India is forecast at 4.5 to 5 per month totaling to 50-60 a year. This means only 300 right hand seat vacancies per year.
Spicejet has a cadet scheme which is going to fill all their requirement. They have 90 cadets on their pay rolls and hardly have any requirement for direct induction. Recently, out of 60 applicants they recruited none.
AIE, I learnt, recruited only 14 out of 200 odd applicants.
I believe Jet airways are hardly recruiting any because their immediate future requirement has all been met (Info not from authentic source).
A first officer told me yesterday that a close CPL holder friend of his has been without a job for four months.
The airlines which ordered aeroplanes in hundreds are finding it difficult to deploy all of these and considering to sell/ selling them off at a premium to improve their bottom lines.
Ones with the business interest might like to think otherwise for the obvious reasons but, in my view, for those investing hard earned money into flying it would be prudent to consider whether it is right to follow the media hype or their own minds after having considered all the pros and cons.
A careful reading of the ‘paper’ would reveal that it was written for guidance of fresh aviators which means that once they qualify as aviators they would fill only first officers vacancy in an airline. Hence, the accent was on the fact that supply would outstrip the demand of first officers. Captains’ shortage was relegated to almost one sentence.
A few responses indicated that insufficient research was put into paper and details were hardly authentic.
I would definitely invite criticism and yet state that the flying training in India should fall into the ambit of unorganized sector. I am looking for some guidance. Can some one provide a lead to the source of authentic data as to how many youngsters are training abroad? I am not aware if such source exists.
In the absence of such data bank, centralized or otherwise, one had to start with certain assumptions that could be reliable and represented the reality. The class I/II medical was thought to be reliable because hardly would any one approach DGCA/ IAM/ CME for an medical appointment, wait for almost an year, spend money from own pocket for all medical tests and obtain DGCA certificate for having cleared it; merely for the kick of it! The intent to ‘go for the licence’ is there and hence all this trouble. Any sensible person would put money into flying training only after ensuring medical fitness. It would, therefore, be safe to assume that most of successful medicals would lead to CPL training. As far as the authenticity of 6000 successful class I/II medicals is concerned, it can be verified from the DGCA!!
As some one rightly pointed out that the flying schools abroad are training many Indians, as many as 80 in a single school. This does substantiate above assumption. The applications by these candidates to appear for written CPL exams have not surfaced so far probably because of the CAR Revision issued on 7th August, 2006. The relevant para is quoted below:-
“7.3 Commercial Pilot Licence (CPL);
The applicant should have:
(a) Passed 10+2 standard examination with Physics and Mathematics Subjects
from a recognized Board / University or its equivalent examination.
(b) Private Pilot License ( PPL) OR a minimum of 50 hours of flying training
experience.
(c) Attended the ground training classes with DGCA approved Flying / Ground
Training Institutes or Defence Establishments on the subjects of a category of
license in which the applicant desires to appear.”
This requirement did not exist earlier and any number of candidates could appear for written papers. Not any more. Only the serious ones who have shelled out enough money to fly at least 50 hours and attend requisite lectures in an institute can. They better be serious.
Most of these candidates have chosen to obtain CPL overseas and then convert it to Indian licence. Therefore, the number of applicants for CPL exams should start increasing som where in the beginning of next year.
Just to get the picture of reality right, consider the following:-
The aircraft induction rate in India is forecast at 4.5 to 5 per month totaling to 50-60 a year. This means only 300 right hand seat vacancies per year.
Spicejet has a cadet scheme which is going to fill all their requirement. They have 90 cadets on their pay rolls and hardly have any requirement for direct induction. Recently, out of 60 applicants they recruited none.
AIE, I learnt, recruited only 14 out of 200 odd applicants.
I believe Jet airways are hardly recruiting any because their immediate future requirement has all been met (Info not from authentic source).
A first officer told me yesterday that a close CPL holder friend of his has been without a job for four months.
The airlines which ordered aeroplanes in hundreds are finding it difficult to deploy all of these and considering to sell/ selling them off at a premium to improve their bottom lines.
Ones with the business interest might like to think otherwise for the obvious reasons but, in my view, for those investing hard earned money into flying it would be prudent to consider whether it is right to follow the media hype or their own minds after having considered all the pros and cons.
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capt.shekh...
so as a newbie at the end of the conversion process of my UK licenses to an Indian CPL...in your opinion the prospects of me landing that invaluable f/o position are getting slimmer by the day....or would i be over exaggerating the message of your paper???
so as a newbie at the end of the conversion process of my UK licenses to an Indian CPL...in your opinion the prospects of me landing that invaluable f/o position are getting slimmer by the day....or would i be over exaggerating the message of your paper???
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With due respect to Capt Shek and other senior flying members of the community compared to whom im just a helpless kiddo ..
The above writeup seems to be very true for the Airline flying or "airline dreaming" but everyone in india including the brainy journalists who view go arounds as rare piece of expertise and courage by brave pilots, are overlooking General aviation which is actually sharing a little piece of the BOOM pie but hidden from the eyes of the new pilots. I can give one too many instances of companies actually waiting for air force pilots to retire and get civilian licences.
So to answer the queries of some of the worrying wannabes I'd say some of them would be into disappointment if they had jumped in to fly an A320 5 days after they get out of a cessna after their checkride. But again in aviation the maximum you can predict is day after tomorrow!
Haree
The above writeup seems to be very true for the Airline flying or "airline dreaming" but everyone in india including the brainy journalists who view go arounds as rare piece of expertise and courage by brave pilots, are overlooking General aviation which is actually sharing a little piece of the BOOM pie but hidden from the eyes of the new pilots. I can give one too many instances of companies actually waiting for air force pilots to retire and get civilian licences.
So to answer the queries of some of the worrying wannabes I'd say some of them would be into disappointment if they had jumped in to fly an A320 5 days after they get out of a cessna after their checkride. But again in aviation the maximum you can predict is day after tomorrow!
Haree
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Capt Shek.....great post and Nevrekar....you guys have good insights. I am currently a flight instructor here in the US with over 1000TT and an A320 type rating. I spoke to KF a month back and they told me that their spots are filling up fast. I can give you guys a ball park figure on the number of Indian guys flying here. In Florida alone there are over 2000. Most of the big academies in California have over 1000 students from India. Sabena airline training in Phoenix has around 50-100 students. As Capt Shek said, all these guys are going to be finishing up their training in the next 6 months time frame and this will flood the Indian market with trainee F/O's. So all those with the airline dream are basically competing with one another to get their hours done and rush back to India.
To just give you an example of how desperate the flight schools are to get instructors to train all these Indian students is un-imaginable. These times are not going to be there long in India. On the flip side, the US market will hurt for pilots for another 5yrs min. The regionals are picking up vast amts of flying from the majors. Most of the airlines here are advertising a basic CPL which was un-heard of before. So to all pursuing the dream, analyse the market before you spend your cash flow.
To just give you an example of how desperate the flight schools are to get instructors to train all these Indian students is un-imaginable. These times are not going to be there long in India. On the flip side, the US market will hurt for pilots for another 5yrs min. The regionals are picking up vast amts of flying from the majors. Most of the airlines here are advertising a basic CPL which was un-heard of before. So to all pursuing the dream, analyse the market before you spend your cash flow.
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today's news........................a bit related to this topic
@ 11/02/2007 06:42:00 AM
Dragonair is cancelling flights due to pilot shortage
Dragonair (Hong Kong) is being forced to cancel sometimes up to eight flights a day due to a pilot shortage. However the average is closer to two flights a day being cancelled (it schedules approximately 100 flights a day). The company has reported a number of recent pilot resignations. The pilots claim it is an on-going dispute over scheduling and pay issues. Dragonair currently has around 400 mostly expatriate pilots.
&
@ 11/01/2007 04:42:00 PM
REX suspends the first route due to pilot shortage
REX-Regional Express (Wagga Wagga and Sydney) will temporarily suspend all service between Sydney and the Snowy Mountains (Cooma) from November 19, 2007 through May 18, 2008 due to the current shortage of pilots in Australia. The entry of Tiger Airways in Australia is causing a drain on pilots and usually the lower-paying regional carriers pay the price.
@ 11/02/2007 06:42:00 AM
Dragonair is cancelling flights due to pilot shortage
Dragonair (Hong Kong) is being forced to cancel sometimes up to eight flights a day due to a pilot shortage. However the average is closer to two flights a day being cancelled (it schedules approximately 100 flights a day). The company has reported a number of recent pilot resignations. The pilots claim it is an on-going dispute over scheduling and pay issues. Dragonair currently has around 400 mostly expatriate pilots.
&
@ 11/01/2007 04:42:00 PM
REX suspends the first route due to pilot shortage
REX-Regional Express (Wagga Wagga and Sydney) will temporarily suspend all service between Sydney and the Snowy Mountains (Cooma) from November 19, 2007 through May 18, 2008 due to the current shortage of pilots in Australia. The entry of Tiger Airways in Australia is causing a drain on pilots and usually the lower-paying regional carriers pay the price.
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uncoordinated, asymmetric growth
uncoordinated, asymmetric growth
Why is it uncoordinated and asymmetric though?
Because the infrastructure (airports, regulator, ATC) is an expensive, long term government driven investment, whereas buying aircraft and selling seats is (relatively) a short term private capital sponsored exercise.
The growth is phenomenal, just hope the price is not paid in blood.
Having flown around the subcontinent for a while (as an expat) I can say that the combination of nasty weather, high terrain, inadequate ATC and poor infrastructure is a potential nasty .
Good luck to all of you flying down there. Be careful and safe.
Last edited by Capt Roo; 3rd Nov 2007 at 12:37.
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"The idea of some kid flying a 737 around Africa with 300 hours of total time is a bit scary," Smith noted. 
The Air Forces of the world have been doing this forever..... competency-based training should be the way forward...how does flying VFR for 900 hrs in a 172 help you to fly a 737NG or A320
The Air Forces of the world have been doing this forever..... competency-based training should be the way forward...how does flying VFR for 900 hrs in a 172 help you to fly a 737NG or A320
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Huge difference between air force training and 90% of civilian training. especially when they're throwing brand new students to the four corners of the earth.
Bosnia? Great place to visit but for flight training? The product changes with each place they get students trained.
I'd take an air force trained pilot with 250 hours over most randomly trained civilian pilots, but that's another argument. You're right about competency based training. That's what's needed.
The pilot shortage will continue.....
Bosnia? Great place to visit but for flight training? The product changes with each place they get students trained.
I'd take an air force trained pilot with 250 hours over most randomly trained civilian pilots, but that's another argument. You're right about competency based training. That's what's needed.
The pilot shortage will continue.....
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El Lobo Solo:
Too simplistic....
Military training is certainly standardised and giving some minimum garantees but it is military culture ....with a huge difference with civil orientations... A reconditionning is -at least- necessary ==> see "UK CAA FlightTraining guide for QSP".
What is really catastrophic is the FTO run by former military pilots without any clue of Civil Aviation Culture and unfortunately this kind of FTO represents the quasi majority in this part of the world....
This debate is fundamental: it is also underlining the difference between the European Approach and the US Approach for crewing the right seat of Airliners.
On the contrary of USA which have a permanent reservoir of experienced pilots from Air Force or/and from General Aviation, European Airlines -since tens of years- are obliged to crew their Airliners with low time first Officers. This requirement has conducted to the JAR system where a sound theoretical knowledge and a tough IR training are compensating the lack of experience. On the opposite in US, Major recruit with FAA Licences + experience + often University diplomas. The overall quality of First Officers can be considered as similar in Europe and USA.
But what is a deviation is to put on the right seat a First Officer without experience, without complementary knowledge and only a FAA (or similar) licence: this is obviously very insufficient.
The theory which was prevailing in the 80s that a good background was not required for becoming a pilot is now considered as fully obsolete by the promoters (Aircraft Manufacturers) which are now privately recognising that has been at the roots of some incidents/accidents.
It is explaining also the rejection of some newly graduated pilots during the First Type rating in the manufacturer premises.
A good new: Manufacturers are now recognising that Quality in training is a key to safety. This is a turning point and the new wannabes should consider seriously how they are going to undertake their training, after checking if they have the aptitude to do the job...
before investing time and money.
In conclusion, YES there is a shortage of qualified First Officers and Commanders in the region
and YES the region is flooded with poor quality CPL/IR and we can fear than a big part of them will be jobless or will have a dotted professional life.
Too simplistic....
Military training is certainly standardised and giving some minimum garantees but it is military culture ....with a huge difference with civil orientations... A reconditionning is -at least- necessary ==> see "UK CAA FlightTraining guide for QSP".
What is really catastrophic is the FTO run by former military pilots without any clue of Civil Aviation Culture and unfortunately this kind of FTO represents the quasi majority in this part of the world....
This debate is fundamental: it is also underlining the difference between the European Approach and the US Approach for crewing the right seat of Airliners.
On the contrary of USA which have a permanent reservoir of experienced pilots from Air Force or/and from General Aviation, European Airlines -since tens of years- are obliged to crew their Airliners with low time first Officers. This requirement has conducted to the JAR system where a sound theoretical knowledge and a tough IR training are compensating the lack of experience. On the opposite in US, Major recruit with FAA Licences + experience + often University diplomas. The overall quality of First Officers can be considered as similar in Europe and USA.
But what is a deviation is to put on the right seat a First Officer without experience, without complementary knowledge and only a FAA (or similar) licence: this is obviously very insufficient.
The theory which was prevailing in the 80s that a good background was not required for becoming a pilot is now considered as fully obsolete by the promoters (Aircraft Manufacturers) which are now privately recognising that has been at the roots of some incidents/accidents.
It is explaining also the rejection of some newly graduated pilots during the First Type rating in the manufacturer premises.
A good new: Manufacturers are now recognising that Quality in training is a key to safety. This is a turning point and the new wannabes should consider seriously how they are going to undertake their training, after checking if they have the aptitude to do the job...
before investing time and money.
In conclusion, YES there is a shortage of qualified First Officers and Commanders in the region
and YES the region is flooded with poor quality CPL/IR and we can fear than a big part of them will be jobless or will have a dotted professional life.
Last edited by Passenger 07; 3rd Nov 2007 at 10:22.
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hey people! holding a indian cpl since a while now... am on air india's "waiting list" like 30 other chaps! this is the only thing close to getting a job for me here!!!
is there anywhere else i can fly perhaps with 300 hours indian passport faa/dgca cpl? [
]
is there anywhere else i can fly perhaps with 300 hours indian passport faa/dgca cpl? [
]
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the naked truth about pilot shortage
On every newspaper you can read about this "pilot shortage", but when you check the airlines requirements for new F/O you'll find out that they all require a minimum of 500hrs on type or jet experience.
So... if there is a real pilot shortage, why don't they recruit experienced GA pilots. There are a lot of good experienced pilot with thousands of hours of spinning, training, and every other kind things but... airlines haven't lowered their requirements yet.
If every airline is looking for experienced F/O's but nobody is hiring unexperienced F/O... isn't it like the snake that bites his tail?
So... if there is a real pilot shortage, why don't they recruit experienced GA pilots. There are a lot of good experienced pilot with thousands of hours of spinning, training, and every other kind things but... airlines haven't lowered their requirements yet.
If every airline is looking for experienced F/O's but nobody is hiring unexperienced F/O... isn't it like the snake that bites his tail?