Pilots for India
Well, at least the paper from Captain R S Shekhawat has attempted to identify the situation and started an interesting debate on the subject. However, I tend to agree with Clive, and put the Captain's paper in the 'bar chat' (albeit very interesting bar chat) category.
As stated, the figures are rather simplistic, based essentially on the number of Class 2 medicals issued and the number of aircraft ordered.
(By the way, does the number of aircraft also include purchases of not-new aircraft?).
The fact of the matter is that, as an industry, we are notoriously bad at forecasting and foward planning.
Those of us who have seen a number of the (typically) eight-to-ten year boom / bust cycles can attest to that !
However, one thing is absolutely certain and that is that the rate of growth in the Indian aviation sector will continue to rise at an increasing rate for the forseeable future, as the economy strengthens and more citizens enjoy higher disposable (discretionary) incomes.
For sure, there will be growing pains: some of today's operators will not be around in a few years, having tasted the operating losses that accompany high and unrealistic expectations. However others will go from strength to strength, and the number of pilots required will continue to grow. Certainly, there is no point in persevering with 'foreign' pilots, and a strong localisation programme must be put in place.
As for letting the industry run ahead of the capabilities of the industry, regrettably, that is sometimes necessary in order to get things moving. And, besides, Captain R S Shekhawat, do you think that the Indian Government, with it's propensity for bureaucracy, would have happily invested billions in aviation infrastructure before they knew it was going to pay off?
I doubt.
Captain R S Shekhawat, many thanks for starting this interesting debate. I hope it continues as I have a specific interest in seeing young Indian lads and lasses get started on their aviation careers.