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Search: Posts Made By: unexplained blip
Showing results 1 to 35 of 39
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Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
26th Sep 2021, 12:40
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Amen to that... although maybe the last thing...

Amen to that... although maybe the last thing Asia would need right now is Australian carrots being waved in front of their doctors and nurses.
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
26th Sep 2021, 11:26
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Not being in WA and not being in favour of...

Not being in WA and not being in favour of under-investing in health, however, supply of trained medical staff would be the limiting factor, as opposed to (say) any shortage of mullah or will. Those...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
19th Sep 2021, 11:02
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Rubbish modelling, not "enveloped" by a...

Rubbish modelling, not "enveloped" by a comparable reality in say Malta, Denmark (etc), or even UK. Malta running at about 1 death p.w., Transpose to Vic pro-rata to population that is 10 p.w throw...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
9th Sep 2021, 09:51
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Malta And before anyone reaches for the UK...

Malta

And before anyone reaches for the UK as a key example, do not compare infection rates under restrictions at lower vax % with infection rates without restrictions at higher vax %

What will...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
5th Sep 2021, 10:16
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Lets just see what is actually happening once we...

Lets just see what is actually happening once we reach 70%/80%, and especially what the ongoing vaccination pace is as we cross the thresholds. All premiers and their friends are busy putting words...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
15th Aug 2021, 04:36
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

False negatives provide swiss cheese holes, that...

False negatives provide swiss cheese holes, that line up with other cheese holes, and start outbreaks which put us into restrictions and lockdowns. False positives change percentages a little bit,...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
14th Aug 2021, 15:43
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based...

Hand-drawn to protect the innocent, this is based on some reputable data, it is the PCR test sensitivity, for true positive cases. Explains why pax are leaving hotel quarrie and then doing some...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
14th Aug 2021, 15:14
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

PCR tests are maximum about 80% true positive....

PCR tests are maximum about 80% true positive. That is pre-delta and at day 4-6 of infection; ramps up prior and down after. Worry about the false negative rate, not the other way. Really bewildering...
Forum: Rumours & News
14th Aug 2021, 15:06
Replies: 15
Views: 14,337
Posted By unexplained blip

Fire suppression? What ops were they doing and...

Fire suppression? What ops were they doing and why was the video taker interested? Looks like a water drop (not retardant) occurred at apprx. 0.29min, but where is the fire activity?
Best wishes but...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
14th Aug 2021, 13:12
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

I do understand why people are lashing out but it...

I do understand why people are lashing out but it is not very rational. Govts need to keep COVID out because they have no effective means of suppressing it other than keeping people stationary and...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
14th Aug 2021, 12:56
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Doesn't really matter that much. 1% or 0.1...

Doesn't really matter that much. 1% or 0.1 percent fatality rate is still a lot. 1 in 1e+5 or 1e+6 is different and generally thought tolerable. Vax means 1e+5 or so. That's all that matters, rest is...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
14th Aug 2021, 10:13
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Vaccinations passports might be a little...

Vaccinations passports might be a little pointless only if you think that the purpose is to indicate that said person won't catch it nor won't transit it. Quite useful if you think the purpose is to...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
25th Mar 2021, 11:55
Replies: 55
Views: 15,675
Posted By unexplained blip

As SLF who flew VA domestically from the Blue...

As SLF who flew VA domestically from the Blue days onwards enough to keep a good FF status for many years: they seemed to me to be adjusting the catering model every few months. Good riddance to the...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
2nd Feb 2021, 01:53
Replies: 185
Views: 46,007
Posted By unexplained blip

Low probability but multiplied by a large number...

Low probability but multiplied by a large number of people equals near-certainty (say one per month). With the current national intolerance for any cases, there would need to be low occurrence at the...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
1st Feb 2021, 09:48
Replies: 185
Views: 46,007
Posted By unexplained blip

It's been shown that COVID-19 continues to exist...

It's been shown that COVID-19 continues to exist on surfaces for many days (e.g., stainless steel over 14 days IIRC - see https://blog.csiro.au/covid19-virus-surfaces/) under normal climatic...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
7th Dec 2020, 20:31
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

I'm only aware of reports of this occurring in...

I'm only aware of reports of this occurring in rare cases where there remains conjecture about what recurrence is indicating, and where symptoms are mild. If there is a considerable swing towards...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
7th Dec 2020, 09:43
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

boeinga320 let me guess. Even though you have had...

boeinga320 let me guess. Even though you have had COVID-19 *and* the governments of the world are obsessed with vaccines and how quickly they can get hold of them, you have gone and got yourself...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
7th Dec 2020, 08:52
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

boeinga320, I truly can't comprehend why people...

boeinga320, I truly can't comprehend why people under (say) 30 are putting up with this, and as far as I can tell, it is not destined to get better any time soon. I don't have any insight into South...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
6th Dec 2020, 12:50
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

There's no assistance from me for your argument,...

There's no assistance from me for your argument, I will recap. Back at post #2283 you demonstrated ignorance of the reality of COVID-19 prevalence in Victoria by a factor of 10,000. You then...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
6th Dec 2020, 10:06
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Kind of hilarious -- a pilot (I guess) who...

Kind of hilarious -- a pilot (I guess) who doesn't understand chance events, and decides to miscalculate a ratio by about 10^4 ---.Vic is 20K cases from around 6M ppl, that's better than one in a...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
5th Dec 2020, 09:40
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

I accept Boris Johnson is abnormal, and for that...

I accept Boris Johnson is abnormal, and for that reason he needed ventilation to keep living. I accept Tim Brooke Taylor was gonna die anyway, yada yada.

Where I am currently sitting in my man...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
18th Nov 2020, 13:13
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Not a pilot; and usually politically quite left...

Not a pilot; and usually politically quite left of centre. I am involved in COVID data work and advisory including analysis towards air travel reopening. I can say that 'zero' is a bloody-minded,...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
19th Jun 2020, 09:50
Replies: 9,802
Views: 1,796,551
Posted By unexplained blip

Three is the number I have read (for Victoria)...

Three is the number I have read (for Victoria) but also it is being said that they didn't catch it at the protest. If that second part is true then it is trouble with a capital T. It means that out...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
5th Apr 2020, 09:51
Replies: 1,266
Views: 560,785
Posted By unexplained blip

ANZ have already demonstrated an interest in this...

ANZ have already demonstrated an interest in this particular market. The reality won't be revealed for a while yet. They smart enough to say nothing, do nothing, until if and when VA dissolves. The...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
8th Dec 2019, 02:15
Replies: 283
Views: 78,031
Posted By unexplained blip

The notion that Govts are very quick to jump on...

The notion that Govts are very quick to jump on the cc bandwagon is well beyond incorrect, it is a sickening opposite to the reality across the developed world in particular. The scientists are not...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
6th Dec 2019, 21:16
Replies: 283
Views: 78,031
Posted By unexplained blip

The climate has always changed, and there have...

The climate has always changed, and there have always been crosswinds at YSSY. So next time the crosswinds are 40kts, please continue to land. What's that you say? There are safety limits? Well...
Forum: Rumours & News
31st May 2019, 14:33
Replies: 193
Views: 79,452
Posted By unexplained blip

The future of the aviation industry does not rest...

The future of the aviation industry does not rest with pilots, it rest with those holding the capital that funds new aircraft programs and new procurement and leasing programs for new aircraft...
Forum: The Pacific: General Aviation & Questions
23rd Nov 2018, 06:31
Replies: 43
Views: 11,335
Posted By unexplained blip

Assuming this is true about ownership... Fire...

Assuming this is true about ownership...
Fire season lengths are changing, the hemisphere to hemisphere aircraft exchange pattern is breaking down, and shoulder season fire intensity increases mean...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
23rd Nov 2018, 06:17
Replies: 74
Views: 21,863
Posted By unexplained blip

One QF A380 took off to the North this arvo but...

One QF A380 took off to the North this arvo but that's all I saw that way b/w 1pm and 3.30pm. Some QF Thursday pm SYD-MEL pax now looking at Sat afternoon and Sun morning departures. (this SLF...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
5th Aug 2018, 17:30
Replies: 116
Views: 39,595
Posted By unexplained blip

In an industry where the insight, empathy and...

In an industry where the insight, empathy and quality of management decision making in both the private and public sectors is bemoaned - at least based on articulations provided in pprune - I might...
Forum: Rumours & News
27th Jul 2018, 10:08
Replies: 211
Views: 77,671
Posted By unexplained blip

Further on that, the unfolded wingspan is too...

Further on that, the unfolded wingspan is too much for the everett assembly line.
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
9th Nov 2017, 08:24
Replies: 46
Views: 30,046
Posted By unexplained blip

Typically 2-3 weeks in the delivery center....

Typically 2-3 weeks in the delivery center. System tests, minor rectifications, test flight(s), repairing accidental damage, tyre kicking by the customer...
Forum: Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific
5th Nov 2017, 19:45
Replies: 46
Views: 30,046
Posted By unexplained blip

Well, AJ will have two 787 soon enough. ZNB...

Well, AJ will have two 787 soon enough. ZNB rolled off the end of the Everett production line either late Wednesday or early Thursday PST. Either the Everett Delivery Centre is a bit full, or there...
Forum: The Pacific: General Aviation & Questions
27th Sep 2017, 23:34
Replies: 9
Views: 3,367
Posted By unexplained blip

Seems to me that it is more like: (i) a strong...

Seems to me that it is more like: (i) a strong statement than YMEN is here to stay (Proposal 1); (ii) throwing a tiny part of GA under a bus (Proposal 2), as a ceremonial sacrifice to the public in...
Forum: The Pacific: General Aviation & Questions
27th Feb 2017, 11:27
Replies: 26
Views: 4,112
Posted By unexplained blip

Yep. Off the end of 17 at Essendon, there are no...

Yep. Off the end of 17 at Essendon, there are no safe options. Everything involves ploughing into the general population somehow. This includes putting down on the Tulla, which is absolutely a...
Showing results 1 to 35 of 39
 
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