2017 Safest year ever
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I thinks the Flight Stats when they come will show the running averages - and they have been sharply down over the last few years.
Seems to be related to better avionics and reduction of CFIT TBH
Seems to be related to better avionics and reduction of CFIT TBH
A320ECAM, I have no connection to Emirates nor any of its companies or territory, but that is a pretty crass statement. In the past people may have said the same about Korean Air, or Garuda, or even Air France, based on safety related events but predictions....please.
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Which brings the interesting question : what is the real reason behind it ?
Because however you look at the stats , even including turboptrops and Cargo, it was a very safe year , especially considering the raise of traffic.
But is this because new regulations are being a designed and applied , or is it simply because airlines make money again , renew fleets ? did they take training more seriously those last years ? Is fatigue being addressed ?
What do you think ?
Because however you look at the stats , even including turboptrops and Cargo, it was a very safe year , especially considering the raise of traffic.
But is this because new regulations are being a designed and applied , or is it simply because airlines make money again , renew fleets ? did they take training more seriously those last years ? Is fatigue being addressed ?
What do you think ?
Which brings the interesting question : what is the real reason behind it ?
And yes, there are still areas of concern - fatigue being a big one, another being erosion of pilot skill among the newbies with blind obedience to SOP (e.g. "children of the magenta line").
I also don't see much being done to effectively address 'pilot suicide', which has sadly and disturbing been moving up the list of accident causes.
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A320ECAM, I have no connection to Emirates nor any of its companies or territory, but that is a pretty crass statement. In the past people may have said the same about Korean Air, or Garuda, or even Air France, based on safety related events but predictions....please.
That being said, pilot suicide is a problem - there have been at least a dozen air disasters over the last 30 years where pilot suicide is listed as a probable cause (Germanwings being an exception in there is no doubt it was pilot suicide). And the steps taken since the Germanwings disaster are basically window dressing of dubious value.
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I have no doubt the major factor pushing the safety up is exactly the younger generation of pilots who used to obey SOP. It is not perfect but still works much better than anything else.
In addition to factors listed by tdracer #26 let’s give credit to the International Civil Aviation Organization. In recent years ICAO’s mentoring and audits have helped ensure that its Standards and Recommended Practices are implemented worldwide. ICAO does not check individual airlines, just that National Aviation Authorities do their job properly.
ICAO has a neat tool to compare competencies of different Authorities; https://www.icao.int/safety/pages/usoap-results.aspx. For instance China has overcome its poor safety record to rank alongside Australia, but not as highly as Canada. Singapore is brilliant.
ICAO has a neat tool to compare competencies of different Authorities; https://www.icao.int/safety/pages/usoap-results.aspx. For instance China has overcome its poor safety record to rank alongside Australia, but not as highly as Canada. Singapore is brilliant.
Last edited by ozaub; 4th Jan 2018 at 04:05. Reason: Typo
What would you propose as something "... to effectively address 'pilot suicide'..." ?
Australia is a good example of how Airlines successfully lobby to prevent implementation of fatigue rules, ie commercial gain outweighs safety.
It is interesting that no matter how low the statistics go there is still a widespread fear of flying among the general public and a belief that it is inherently dangerous and that accidents are much more common than they actually are. To an extent the same can be said of rail travel (in the UK, at least) where numbers of passenger fatalities in recent years have been vanishingly low. I presume that the false perception is reinforced by the fact that rare aviation and rail crashes are given widespread press and TV coverage because of the very fact that their rarity makes them newsworthy.
Conversely the really dangerous form of travel, ie the private car, is regarded as safe by most people. I suppose it may have something to do with familiarity and the erroneous belief that as the drivers themselves are in control they must be safer.
Conversely the really dangerous form of travel, ie the private car, is regarded as safe by most people. I suppose it may have something to do with familiarity and the erroneous belief that as the drivers themselves are in control they must be safer.
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So while aviation has become safer, we also had a very lucky year.
Interesting piece by Karen Walker in Air Transport World.
Media reaction to ?safest year? for airlines is telling | ATW Editor's Blog
Basically, pax accept, and expect, commercial flying to be safe. They'd also like it be fun again...
Fat chance, I suspect.
Media reaction to ?safest year? for airlines is telling | ATW Editor's Blog
Basically, pax accept, and expect, commercial flying to be safe. They'd also like it be fun again...
Fat chance, I suspect.
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True but only up to a point -
The MAIN PRIORITY is not killing people................... so we did well last year
Incidents are important as they flag issues that MAY cause problems in the future - and better still you can actually talk to the people involved and you have a lot more data than a battered flight recorder.
The MAIN PRIORITY is not killing people................... so we did well last year
Incidents are important as they flag issues that MAY cause problems in the future - and better still you can actually talk to the people involved and you have a lot more data than a battered flight recorder.
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The MAIN PRIORITY is not killing people...
Accidents like the AF A340 in Toronto for instance will not be in this statistic and it was one major accident with some pax receiving serious injuries, a total write off and good lessons to learn from.
This survey defines Safety by applying some filters to prove their point , i.e to show the "first year" without passengers fatalities. (which is not really true also as it does not count GA , small regional OPS ) It excludes crew fatalities from that Stat at well .
So a good year , yes, but accident free , definitively not .
This might be a good time to remind ourselves of what Annex 13 has to say:
Most AIBs operate on that principle, at least in theory, where as much attention should be paid to precursor events that didn't have a catastrophic outcome as to those that did.
In practice, though, a combination of public outrage, media pressure and lack of resources means that it's only the ones that kill a lot of people that get a 400-page investigation report.
"The difference between an accident and a serious incident lies only in the result"
In practice, though, a combination of public outrage, media pressure and lack of resources means that it's only the ones that kill a lot of people that get a 400-page investigation report.