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2017 Safest year ever

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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 13:13
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2017 Safest year ever

2017 was the safest year in history for commercial airlines, according to industry research.
There were no passenger jets crashes anywhere in the world, separate reports by Dutch consultancy To70 and The Aviation Safety Network found.
This was despite more flights being made than ever before.
But To70 warned that despite high safety levels on passenger planes, the "extraordinarily" low accident rate must be seen as "good fortune".
Cargo plane crash

A report by the Airline Safety Network said there were a total of ten fatal accidents, resulting in 79 deaths last year. That compared with 16 accidents and 303 lives lost in 2016.
The organisation based its figures on incidents involving civil aircraft certified to carry at least 14 people.
The most serious accident of 2017 came in January when a Turkish cargo plane crashed into a village in Kyrgyzstan killing all four crew and 35 people on the ground.
And the incident with the most on-board fatalities happened on New Years Eve, when a Nature Air single-propeller Cessna 208 Caravan plane crashed in western Costa Rica, killing 12 passengers and crew.
Neither report counted military or helicopter accidents, meaning the year's worst air disaster, the crash of a Burmese Y-8 military transporter plane, which crashed in June killing all 122 people on board did not appear in the statistics.
Incidents involving smaller planes also did not figure in the data.
Safety improving

Aviation deaths have been steadily falling for the last two decades. In 2005, there were more than 1,000 deaths on-board commercial passenger flights worldwide, the Aviation Safety Network said.
The last fatal passenger jet airliner accident took place in November 2016 in Colombia, and the last commercial passenger aircraft crash to kill more than 100 people occurred in Egypt a year earlier.
ASN said the accident rate was one fatal passenger flight accident per 7,360,000 flights.
"Since 1997 the average number of airliner accidents has shown a steady and persistent decline, for a great deal thanks to the continuing safety-driven efforts by international aviation organisations such as ICAO, IATA, Flight Safety Foundation and the aviation industry," ASN president Harro Ranter said.
Dutch consultancy To70, estimated there was now one fatal accident for every 16 million flights, though its report was compiled before the Costa Rica crash.
"2017 was the safest year for aviation ever," the firm's Adrian Young said, but added civil aviation still carried "very large risks".
He pointed to new technology including fears of lithium-ion batteries catching fire on-board, as well as "mental health issues and fatigue," among the main risk factors for the industry.
And he highlighted that there were "several quite serious non-fatal accidents" including the "spectacular" failure of an engine on an Air France A380.
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 13:37
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A Turkish cargo plane flying from Hong Kong has crashed into a village in Kyrgyzstan, killing all four crew and at least 33 people on the ground.
I don't suppose that the victims on the ground were reassured that it wasn't a passenger-carrying aircraft.
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 13:53
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Still amazing - millions of flights and not a single mainline crash
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 14:52
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and not a single mainline crash
I don't know where you get that from?
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 15:08
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How to sustain it!

Harry
Thanks for starting this thread.
I am impressed every week that goes by without a major hull loss, never mind a year.
Considering all the misunderstandings one hear on the radio and some of the brilliant ideas that are proposed in the flightdeck.
And that is just what I hear.

Reading reports has been a hobby of mine from November 1988 and as I have advanced up the MTOW ladder I have been fascinated by how easy it is to make the next takeoff the last, on any A/C , any Ops.

As I have learned from others to avoid or recover from mistakes, so has the industry.
SOP discipline and respect for rules and regs written after major accidents or trends is the biggest progress paired with better equipment TCAS and GPWS.

Training and the human factor has gone backwards the last 15 years, which is why I think 2017 was a one off.

So how do we secure more years of zero airline loss.
I have a few ideas , but that for later.
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 15:33
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If the CAA say it's been a safe year ............ then it MUST be true.

Excellent!
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 15:45
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Originally Posted by Hotel Tango View Post
I don't know where you get that from?
The last fatal passenger jet airliner accident took place in November 2016 in Colombia, and the last commercial passenger aircraft crash to kill more than 100 people occurred in Egypt a year earlier.

We'll have to wait fro Flight's detailed list but I suspect that almost no passengers lost their lives in an airline accident in 2017
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 16:23
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There were no passenger jets crashes anywhere in the world, separate reports by Dutch consultancy To70 and The Aviation Safety Network found.
Peruvian Airlines Flight 112, 28 March 2017 was a passenger jet crash.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peruvi...nes_Flight_112
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 16:31
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I suppose that one could have been called an accident as suppose to a crash. Gear collapse after landing, subsequent fire, hull burnt out.
39 of the 150 pax onboard injured, no fatalities.
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 16:36
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The last fatal passenger jet airliner accident took place in November 2016 in Colombia, and the last commercial passenger aircraft crash to kill more than 100 people occurred in Egypt a year earlier.
OK, but that's not what you said! For me there's a big difference between "mainline crash" and "mainline passenger fatalities". Hence my question.
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 16:52
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as a passenger most of the time...........................
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 17:17
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I have a real issue with the way this quite welcome information is presented here and there. "No commercial jet crash with fatalities"... huh? why jet only? since when are turboprops no longer an integral part of commercial aviation? "no crash with fatalities of an aircraft of more than X seats"... yeah, sure, put the lower limit just where it fits conveniently.

Isn't it enough to say that the body count of this commercial aviation's year is the lowest in a long time? and just enjoy it as it is? why the need to twist statistics like this to make catchy titles?
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 17:18
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Originally Posted by Hotel Tango View Post
OK, but that's not what you said! For me there's a big difference between "mainline crash" and "mainline passenger fatalities". Hence my question.
There was a fairly fine line between "crash" and fatalities in the Peru crash. On this occasion everybody got out, but it could have ended very differently.

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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 21:39
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For different take on the data, try Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives who record accidents involving aircraft capable of carrying 6 or more passengers, and where an accident results in an aircraft being withdrawn from service. They include several classes of aviation including military, balloons etc.

They record 101 accidents and 399 fatalities for 2017, which historically is still a low figure.
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 22:00
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There may have been no "accidents" this year, but boy did it have many close encounters!

2018 is Emirates' year I am predicting!
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Old 2nd Jan 2018, 22:39
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There was a fairly fine line between "crash" and fatalities in the Peru crash. On this occasion everybody got out, but it could have ended very differently.
That's one reason the manufactures track the 'hull loss rate' - at least for takeoff/landing accidents if it's bad enough to write-off the aircraft, the difference between fatal/non-fatal is often just luck.
Since pure cargo operators have different rules and regulations, it seems fair to segregate their statistics - even though the outcomes can be just as tragic.
All that being said, with the huge increases in air traffic, if we had the same accident rate today as we did in the early 1970s we'd average a major air disaster every week. For all the weaknesses in the current system, going an entire year without a commercial jetliner fatality is pretty darned impressive.
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Old 3rd Jan 2018, 00:03
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One man died, a few days after the crash.
603102-plane-crashes-after-takeoff-northern-saskatchewan-25-people-board.html
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Old 3rd Jan 2018, 00:10
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More amazingly we got to Nov 15 without any passenger fatalities on any scheduled service; not even on more lightly regulated regional services. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catego...idents_in_2017
Since then there have been five passenger fatalities on two turbo-prop airliners
On 15 November 2017 LET 410 operating Khabarovsk Airlines Flight 463 crashed into a wooded area while on approach to Nelkan, Russia. The crash killed four of the five passengers and two crew.
On 13 December 2017 ATR 42 operating West Wind Aviation Flight 280 crashed shortly after taking off from Fond-du-Lac, Canada. All 25 passengers and crews initially survived the crash, but one passenger later died of injuries.
In addition on 31 December 2017 a Nature Air Cessna 208 Caravan crashed shortly after takeoff from Punta Islita, Costa Rica killing 10 passengers and two crew. Nature Air operates scheduled (121) flights but I understand the crash was a charter. Sorry to draw the distinction but from regulatory viewpoint it is important.

Last edited by ozaub; 3rd Jan 2018 at 00:11. Reason: Can't add up!
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Old 3rd Jan 2018, 05:51
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Is it statistically safer to fly with an airline that has never had a crash - or one that has just had one?
I guess that rather depends whether you consider each accident to be an independent event or, alternatively, that there are common contributory factors.

More importantly, whilst the limited number of accidents in the past year is admirable and every individual and every action that has contributed is to be applauded, as others have suggested, we may still have a lot of work to do to reduce the incidence of events that could have been far worse or could have killed people but for good fortune.
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Old 3rd Jan 2018, 06:52
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and serious effort is needed further down the chain - Regionals and Private flying still have a pattern of repeated accidents that really should be avoidable
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