Some points

The air we fly through normally is not always clean and often contains ppm of volcanic residue. Thi sis known by the large high altitude world wide operators who have to maintain planes and restore ash errosion and contamination (windows, leading edges, engine bleed and oil systems etc.

Through the collective data of the OEMs all operator warnings are in place relative to what is very bad and can lead to completely disabling an aircraft and the onset of the symptoms that forewarn this (see your FCOMs). In bertween this and quite, common in major erruptions, Mt Redobt,, St Helens, Pinatuba etc. are events where the engine or aircraft has to be taken out of service at high cost in order to return it to an airworthiness standard.

To both the aviation safety professionals as well as the operators this can be described as a Red (do not fly zone), Yellow (you may have imapct on your operation) and Green (normal wear and tear).

It was always the objective that the volcanolgists and meteorolgists would model the Red zone and Yellow zones make up in PPM and content and advise the operators where they would be at any given time so that safe and effective fleet management could take place. Obviously this did not happen in an organized way. We all share the responsibility for this in not anticpating this and for me this is especially troubling since I bear a large respionsibility in this.

Now we have the operators themselves absorbing the task by flying test flights to at the same time accepting some risk of increased maintenance costs should they encounter Yellow zones for any length of time. Always the intent is to err on the side of safety so do expect some diversions, and Air-turn-backs. Eventually the forecasters will better be able to antcipate these zones and the operations will be able to operate on schedule.

In is in the interests of all aviation interests to devise means to best meet the challenges including supporting both long terms research as well as short term management of risks.

With regard to all the comments re the safety of airspace to the south of the British isles has it not occured to the posters that the same islands are upstream and in a far more concentrated ash stream than the southern european countries and therefore the continued closure makes sense. Why be the guinea pigs with potentially the most damaging results.

DHL are operating a lot of flights into BRU tonight iso LEJ/EMA. Only problem they are all manned by crews who have been stuck down route since last week and all the replacements are in the UK / LEJ.
Makes me so angry I could throw the phone down :\

MPN11 - easy now I'd say most on here have multiple windows open at the moment.

My real concern is that if the BA's don't divert into 'open' UK airports the media is going to have a field day regarding the decision to launch, the decision to refuse descent, landing clearance etc etc etc. Yes, I know there may be constraint issues in terms of the number of stands at Newcastle or Aberdeen that can take a 747-400/777 etc. But the media won't see that.

And so the Public Relations war gets underway: "heroic" British Airways versus NATS (Govt) et al.

It's no accident that all major news channels are now running headline stories about BA's "determination" to bring 26 flights into the UK tonight. Including Heathrow and Gatwick. The story is being orchestrated direct from BA's Press Office.

Presumably it will be good for BA's business to be seen as the equivalent of an embargo buster. But what kind of signal is that as to the relevance / influence or otherwise of all the agencies and authorities so far involved?

A BA source is now saying that they are not engaged in a act of defience and the 26 flights will not be landing in the UK tonight.

Update on activity

Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

Current events

Deflation - 20 April 2010 13:30

Latest available results from GPS stations around Eyjafjallajökull showed deflation associated with the eruption. This suggested that the volume of eruptive material which has been ejected already, relieves pressure off the volcano.
No movements associated with the Katla volcano are presently observed.
Sound blasts - 20 April 2010 12:30

Heavy sound blasts have been heard and found near Eyjafjallajökull, especially south and east of the mountain, and more clearly after wind speeds became lower.
The viscosity of the magma from Eyjafjallajökull is higher than on Fimmvörðuháls. This enhances the explosive sound effect. Shock- and soundwaves are carried long distances.

Articles < Seismicity < Icelandic Meteorological office

Latest advisory image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271763280.png

May be of interest to some of you that Heathrow Special are now issuing SVFR clearances for transit of the London CTR for 'normal' (non-emergency) aircraft again for the first time since this all started.

Hope this of interest to someone.

Chronus, there will be no money left to invest in anything. This total farce will finish us all off.

Radio Teelevis Eireann:

I suggest anyone who doubts the presence of the ash in the air goes to their local flying club or training organisation and looks at the piston engined aircraft that have, thankfully for the health of the club, still been regularly flying over the last 5 days in 20K plus visibilities at low level...

Unusual grey propwash shaped streaks and swirls are visible on leading edges and black propellors are grey. Fortunately these aircraft are cutting through the air at not much more than 100 knots and everythings at not much higher than ambient temperature. Air filters designed to cope with dusty grass runways are not presented with a problem.

I'm sure that many of us are presently watching those aircraft holding over the IOM and Liverpool trying to get to LHR (even the anti-spotters are secretly doing it). The commanders of those aircraft all feel that it is safe to land at LHR. Could somebody please explain why it is safe for these aircraft to land at other airports within the 'ash cloud' but not at LHR? Is the ash thicker at LHR than it is at BRU?

Meanwhile, the BA YYC-LHR flight is almost directly overhead a CAVOK LHR on a diversion to god knows where. Is anyone seriously suggesting that landing in Ostend or Brussels is so much safer than landing at LHR?:ugh:

I dunno but BA 038 just touched down in AMS and it appears that BA 206 and BA 9120 just made the turn toward SNN. BA 084 and and BA 284 are holding on either side of Eire.

Meanwhile, looks like the LH and KL flights to the U.S. have resumed...

I am sure there will be a few red faces in the near future in the UK aviation panorama for the decission made these days (or lack of). The press need to be made aware that the UK are using a different forecast to everyone else's this is why there are no flights in the UK. It has nothing to do with scientific measurements...

What would have happenned if 24 BA planes had landed at LHR without clearance??? Well you will never find out but if they had done it the restrictions would have been lifted much faster.

Transport sec and Chair of CAA making statement along the lines that airspace will be reopened from 22:00. Also 'The Met Office confirms that the current indicated no-fly zones do not currently cover the UK'.

Lets hope we can get something down tonight out of the BA 26.

Quick question...

This is getting very political; a battle of wits between BA and NATS/CAA/HMG despite what BA say.

Have been watching BA084 at FL340 in orbit over the Irish sea/IOM for the best part of an hour...whilst others arriving from the USA are heading for Shannon.

Could it be that BA084 is being used by the company as a 'fuel emergency' trial aircraft to force the issue and request a straight in to LHR or MAN?

pp

Watching those BA aorcraft probing the UK FIR with nothing else in the sky reminded me of the opening graphics on Dads Army.

I don't think you can practice hand flying in RVSM airspace these days...:cool:

At least three B744 Speedbirds still in holding, are they waiting for some announcement about opening EGLL? Is someone about to make a decision on opening UK airspace?

...Adonis says the BA flights can land, WW must have applied some pressure tonight.

All airports can reopen.