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Let the Great Experiment begin...
Let the Great Experiment begin: Science will reign supreme against the detritus of more primitive gods, and tens of thousands of passengers will be as guinea pigs to prove as self-evident the safety of airline profitability and political power...
New London VAAC NWP Volcanic Ash Concentration Charts rely on so-called "standard threshold" - anyone know what this is? According to CAA statement of 20 April: "Our way forward is based on international data and evidence from previous volcanic ash incidents, new data collected from test flights and additional analysis from manufacturers over the past few days." Anyone know where materials of these data and analysis are located? |
The 1991 Pinatubo eruptions and their effects on aircraft operations
Found this 21pg public domain document from the USGS There's extensive detail and information as well about aircraft incidents - just some excerpts below The 1991 Pinatubo eruptions and their effects on aircraft operations - Documents & Publications - Professional Resources - PreventionWeb.net The 1991 Pinatubo Eruptions and Their Effects on Aircraft Operations By Thomas J. Casadevall,1 Perla J. Delos Reyes,2 and David J. Schneider3 1 U.S. Geological Survey. 2 Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Quezon City, Philippines. 3 Michigan Technological University, Department of Geological Engineering, Houghton, MI 49931. ABSTRACT The explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 injected enormous clouds of volcanic ash and acid gases into the stratosphere to altitudes in excess of 100,000 feet. The largest ash cloud, from the June 15 eruption, was carried by upper level winds to the west and circled the globe in 22 days. The June 15 cloud spread laterally to cover a broad equatorial band from about 10°S. to 20° N. latitude and contaminated some of the world's busiest air traffic corridors. Sixteen damaging encounters were reported between jet aircraft and the drifting ash clouds from the June 12 and 15, 1991, eruptions. Three encounters occurred within 200 kilometers from the volcano with ash clouds less than 3 hours old. Twelve encounters occurred over Southeast Asia at distances of 720 to 1,740 kilometers west from the volcano when the ash cloud was between 12 and 24 hours old. Encounters with the Pinatubo ash cloud caused in-flight loss of power to one engine on each of two different aircraft. A total of 10 engines were damaged and replaced, including all four engines on a single jumbo jet. Following the 1991 eruptions, longer term damage to aircraft and engines related to volcanogenic SO2 gas has been documented including crazing of acrylic airplane windows, premature fading of polyurethane paint on jetliners, and accumulation of sulfate deposits in engines. Ash fall in the Philippines damaged aircraft on the ground and caused seven airports to close. Restoration of airport operations presented unique challenges, which were successfully met by officials at Manila International Airport and at Cubi Point Naval Air Station, Subic Bay. Lessons learned in these clean-up operations have broad applicability worldwide. Between April 12 and June 9, 1991, Philippine aviation authorities issued at least eight aeronautical information notices about the preeruption restless state of Mount Pinatubo. The large number of aircraft affected by the Pinatubo ash clouds indicates that this information either did not reach appropriate officials or that the pilots, air traffic controllers, and flight dispatchers who received this information were not sufficiently educated about the volcanic ash hazard to know what to do with the information. INTRODUCTION Jet aircraft are damaged when they fly through clouds containing finely fragmented rock debris and acid gases produced by explosive volcanic eruptions (Casadevall, 1992). Clouds of volcanic ash and corrosive gases cannot be detected by weather radar currently carried aboard airplanes, and such clouds are difficult to distinguish visually from meteorological clouds. In the past 15 years, there have been more than 80 in-flight encounters between volcanic ash clouds and commercial jet aircraft. The explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines in June 1991 injected enormous clouds of volcanic ash and gases into the stratosphere to altitudes in excess of 100,000 ft. Within several days of the June eruptions, at least 16 commercial jet airplanes had been damaged by in-flight encounters with the drifting ash clouds from Pinatubo. Closer to the volcano, ash fall in the Philippines damaged about two dozen aircraft on the ground and affected seven airports. This report describes the effects of the 1991 Pinatubo eruptions on aircraft and airports, seeks to understand why so many encounters occurred, and reviews the solutions to the ash-cloud hazard reached by Philippine authorities. Incident number Date Time (G.m.t.)1 Location Latitude Longitude Altitude (feet) Aircraft type Comments 91-01 6/12/91 0420 170 km from volcano; 60 nautical miles from LUBANG along air route B460. 14°00' 119°30' 37,000 747-300 During a 3-min encounter with volcanic ash, crew experienced thin haze inside aircraft that smelled like a burning electrical wire. Aircraft landed safely at Manila Airport. Aircraft and engines were inspected and serviced at Manila in accordance with recommended procedures. When aircraft attempted to depart, its four engines had a strong vibration, and aircraft was grounded at Manila for detailed maintenance and replacement of all four engines. 91-02 6/12/91 uk 720 km west of volcano on route from Singapore to Tokyo. 13°50' 113°50' 37,000 747-400 No significant damage to aircraft when inspected on ground in Tokyo. 91-03 6/12/91 1630 Approx. 1,000 km from volcano; between way points ADPIM and 11°10' 112°10' 33,000 DC-10 series 40 Flight from Kuala Lumpur to Tokyo; observed a discharge phenomena on windshield for 20 min. Ground inspection at Narita revealed no LAVEN. damage. Encounters 3 and 11 involved same aircraft. 91-04 6/15/91 1740 Approx. 1,150 km from volcano; between way points SUKAR and CAVOI. 13°10' 110°50' 29,000 747-400 Aircraft encountered ash cloud at 29,000 ft at approximately 600 nm west of volcano. Crew observed St. Elmo's fire on the windshield and a scent similar to an electrical fire in the cockpit for 6 to 8 min as they went through the ash. There was no abnormal indication in the cockpit. The crew observed a green echo, which seemed to be ash on weather radar, but it disappeared when they were clear of the ash. Flight attendants reported thin (whitish) fog in the cabin, most dense in the upper deck compartment, followed by the forward cabin. The flight was continued to Tokyo, where engine inspection revealed that all four engines were damaged and were replaced. First- stage nozzle guide vane cooling air holes were 70-80% blocked. Other damage occurred to the cockpit windows, cabin windows, Pitot static probes, landing light covers, navigation lights, and all leading edge areas. 91-05 6/15/91 1547 Over Vietnam on route from Hong Kong to Singapore; in Bangkok FIR. 13°00' 108°00' uk 747-SP Ash and sulfur odor, electrostatic discharge, blue-green light over Vietnam. Ground inspection revealed no significant damage, and aircraft continued in service. 91-06 6/15/91 uk uk uk uk uk 747-200 freighter Aircraft flew through "heavy volcanic ash." Cockpit and cabin areas were contaminated with volcanic ash. No additional information available. 91-07 6/15/91 uk Route between Tokyo and Singapore. uk uk 35,000 747-251 Flight from Narita to Singapore was rerouted to Manila due to weather in Singapore area. En route to Manila, encountered volcanic ash cloud at 35,000 ft for approximately 12 min and was then diverted to Taipei. Engines set at cruise. Sparks were noted coming from windows and Crew reported hearing ash hit the aircraft. EGT for all four engines rose 40-50°C and started to fluctuate. One hour later all EGTs were back to normal. Ground inspection in Taipei revealed no significant damage to exterior or to engines. Aircraft continued in service. 91-08 6/15/91 uk <200 km from volcano; on approach to Manila from south. uk uk uk DC-10 series 30 Flight from Sydney to Manila encountered ash on approach to Manila from south. Engines set at low power but found to contain "lots of ash" when inspected after landing. Exterior abrasion visible, including engine cowls. 91-09 6/15/91 uk Route between Singapore and Osaka. uk uk uk 747-300 Aircraft was in ash cloud for 29 min while en route from Singapore to Osaka. Date of encounter uncertain, probably 6/15; one report indicates 6/19. Inspection of aircraft exterior showed no significant damage. Engines #1 and #4 were replaced; "90% of the first-stage turbine blades have bullseyes on the airfoil's mid-span pressure side and some first-stage vane leading edge ash buildup at 3 o'clock position." 91-11 6/15/91 1730 Approx. 1,050 km from 15°15' 110°30' 29,000 DC-10 series 40 Flight from Kuala Lumpur to Tokyo; volcano; between way points SUKAR and CAVOI, 120 nautical miles from CAVOI. observed a discharge phenomena on windshield for 25 min. Ground inspection at Narita revealed no damage. Encounters 3 and 11 involved same aircraft. 91-12 6/15/91 1910 Approx. 1,050 km from volcano; between way points SUKAR and CAVOI, 120 nautical miles from CAVOI. 15°15' 110°30' 29,000 DC-10 series 40 Flight from Singapore to Osaka; crew observed a discharge phenomena on windshield for 30 min. Ground inspection at Narita revealed no damage. 91-13 6/15/91 0910 Approx. 100 km from volcano; flight from Manila to Hong Kong. uk uk uk 747-428 After takeoff from Manila, airplane skirted a volcanic ash cloud. On the ground in Hong Kong, black marks were noted on the exterior of the left wing. Engines were borescoped and no discrepancies were found. Airplane continued to Delhi. Preparing to leave Delhi, unable to start engine #1. Fuel pump was replaced and additional inspections of airplane revealed no damage. Airplane continued to Paris. 91-14 6/16/91 uk Route between Kuala Lumpur and Kota Kinabalu. uk uk uk 737-200 freighter Indications that aircraft flew through volcanic ash cloud were apparent only after aircraft underwent ground inspection in Kuala Lumpur, which revealed abrasion of plexiglass landing light covers and navigation lights, which were totally opaque. Cowling intakes were abraded and rough to the touch, while compressor blades were remarkably clean. Landing gear bays were covered in ash with ash sticking to oily surfaces. No apparent damage to windshields. 91-15 6/17/91 (?) uk Flight likely on Tokyo to Singapore uk uk uk DC-10 Airplane reportedly encountered ash from Pinatubo on June 17. #3 route. engine was reported to have been shut down in flight; ash encounter may have caused in- flight shutdown. Inspection of engines revealed "heavy deposits" of what was presumed to be volcanic ash. No information about flight route, encounter duration, and such. 91-16 6/17/91 0412 930 km from volcano; 50 nautical miles east of way point IDOSI on route A901. 19°30' 112°40' 37,000 747-200B Flight from Johannesburg to Taipei via Mauritius. Encounter occurred at 37,000 ft 50 nm east of way point IDOSI on route A901; entered a cloud at 0412 G.m.t.; temperature increased from -48°C to -37°C in 2 min; aircraft descended to 29,000 ft and landed at 0540 G.m.t.; engine #1 surged and was shut down; engine #4 lost power; descended to 29,000 ft to restart #1. Aircraft landed safely at Taipei. Service terminated. Engine #1 replaced and aircraft returned to South Africa on 6/21 for further inspection. 91-17 6/15/91 na Aircraft on ground at Manila International Airport. 14°30' 121°00' On ground L-1011 Maintenance crew attempted to remove volcanic ash from window by using wiper blades. Resulted in abrasion of windows, which required replacement. DAMAGE When a jetliner flying in excess of 400 knots (740 km/h) enters a cloud of finely fragmented rock particles, the principal damage will be abrasion of the exterior, forward-facing surfaces and accumulation of ash into surface openings (Casadevall, 1992). An example of the exterior damage to one jumbo jet after an encounter with a Pinatubo ash cloud is shown schematically in figure 7. Ingestion of ash into the engines will cause abrasion damage, especially to compressor fan blades. Because jet engines operate at temperatures in excess of 700°C, melting of ash and accumulation of this ash in the turbine section is an important problem as well (Przedpelski and Casadevall, 1994). Remelted ash may block the passage of air through the engines and cause the engine to stop. In an least one airplane (incident 91-04 in table 1), first-stage nozzle guide vane cooling holes were 70 to 80 percent blocked. Figure 7. Damage to exterior surfaces of a 747-400 jumbo jet following an encounter with the June 15, 1991, ash cloud from Mount Pinatubo. The majority of the Pinatubo encounters occurred at distances of up to 2,000 km from the volcano with an ash cloud that was at least 12 h old. The aging of the ash cloud allowed the coarser ash to settle from the cloud and prevented some of the more severe damage such as that which occurred to jumbo- jet aircraft from earlier encounters with volcanic ash (Smith, 1983; Tootell, 1985; and Casadevall, 1994). In the Pinatubo case, there were few reports of abrasion of forward-facing cabin windows, so it is suggested that particles larger than about 30 m in diameter had already settled from the cloud. Particles smaller than this diameter are efficiently swept over the window surface by the slipstream and do not impact the window surface (Pieri and Oeding, 1991). Longer term damage related primarily to the SO2 gas and sulfuric acid aerosols produced by the eruption (Self and others, this volume) did not become apparent until months after the eruption. Some Asian-based carriers noted that jet engines on their airplanes have accumulated deposits of sulfate minerals such as anhydrite and gypsum in the turbine. This material blocked cooling holes in the first- stage nozzle guide vane at the inlet to the turbine section of the engine and thereby interfered with the cooling of the turbine. As a result, engines overheated. The sulfate deposits found in the turbine section appear to be related to ingestion and oxidation of SO2 and sulfuric acid aerosols that originated in the Pinatubo eruption clouds of June 15 (Casadevall and Rye, 1994). Additional problems related to the acidic aerosols include the increased incidence of crazing of acrylic windows (Berner, 1993) and fading of polyurethane paint on jetliners (T.M. Murray, Boeing, written commun., 1993). Unlike the circumstances involving in-flight encounters with the ash clouds, which were largely restricted to the region west of the volcano, the gas cloud from Pinatubo has been widely dispersed throughout the Northern Hemisphere and has thereby affected aircraft that fly in this airspace. A similar increase in the incidence of window crazing was observed for several years following the eruptions of El Chichón Volcano in 1982 (Rogers, 1984; 1985; Bernard and Rose, 1990). Pinatubo erupted nearly 3 times more SO2 than did El Chichón (Bluth and others, 1992). Thus, the types of problems related to volcanogenic sulfur gas and sulfuric acid aerosols may be expected to persist longer following the Pinatubo activity than after El Chichón. LONG-TERM DAMAGE In addition to the aircraft damage that was immediately evident in the days following the June 15 eruption, damage related primarily to SO2 gas has been reported by some airline companies and manufacturers. One year after the eruption, in June 1992, there was an incident involving loss of engine power on a jumbo jet owing to accumulation of sulfate deposits in jet engines. Isotopic studies of these deposits suggest that the sulfate is derived from the ingestion and oxidation of SO2 and sulfuric acid aerosols that originated in the Pinatubo eruption cloud of June 15 (Casadevall and Rye, 1994). Related problems recognized in 1992 such as the increased incidence of crazing of acrylic windows (Berner, 1993) and fading of polyurethane paint on jetliners are also due to volcanogenic sulfuric acid droplets in the atmosphere. Frequent inspections of aircraft should reveal any corrosion problems due to volcanogenic sulfur gases. |
Willie Walsh's boardroom? :E
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Infrequent. You're a satellite interpretation/atmospheric dispersion expert now are you? And what does volcanic ash look like on a satellite image? Excellent. Then no doubt you know the Eurocontrol charts are based on data provided by the Met Office. (Under ICAO the MO are the ONLY body allowed to produce VAAC charts….but no doubt you knew that).
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Let the Great Experiment begin...
Further:
"In addition, the CAA’s Revised Airspace Guidance requires airlines to: · conduct their own risk assessment and develop operational procedures to address any remaining risks; · put in place an intensive maintenance ash damage inspection before and after each flight; and · report any ash related incidents to a reporting scheme run by the CAA." Anyone has info on these? Specs, instructions, instrumentation for inspections...? Location of reports or CAA reporting scheme...? |
how can these SOPs be up and running already so that all these flights were able to go- I do not understand this, it takes the company I work for weeks/months to get a gobal one of these signed off!!! These companies have got them in place in one night shift! How can their maintance teams been able to buy into/ contribute to these as some of it will depend on them?
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Phalken Post/pre Flt Volcanic Ash Inspections
Initially, the God given Mk 1 Eyeball - like we have been using for years!!!
Mind you, It might have to be Licensed for Volcanic Ash Inspections :ugh: |
Interesting ...
Anyone care to comment as to why this, frankly quite interesting and useful page appeared and then rather quickly disappeared from the VAAC website?
Met Office: Icelandic volcano - Ash concentration charts |
Let the Great Experiment begin...
As any coal-miner will tell you: silicosis is diagnosed only after your lungs are bleeding, when you have already begun to cough and splutter, and loose your breath until your legs give way...
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put in place an intensive maintenance ash damage inspection before and after each flight |
Metoffice response to CAA
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One would imagine longer than a 30 minute turnaround allows.
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Someone was asking for mass-flow numbers earlier on. RR's Web site gives an intake mass-flow for the RB211-535E4B (I picked an engine arbitrarily) of 1,177lb/sec or 533.87kg/sec. Based on the figure of 0.3 milligrams per m3 given for Stranraer, at an air density of 1.2kg/m3 at sea level (obviously we're not interested in sea level, but at least it's wrong in a known way - the ash measurement is a sea-level one and I guess RR's figures are test-stand measurements, so it's consistent) that would be 444m3 of air a second and 0.133g of ash a second - 478g of ash per engine-hour. (Although, the -535 is a very high bypass turbofan, so perhaps we need the core mass flow...) Now, scientists and engineers have agreed a threshold concentration for ash of 0.002g per cubic metre of air. At or below this concentration, there is no damage to the engine. Thats a pretty high level. |
Germany is back to unrestricted air traffic since noontime today. IFR anywhere possible again in Deutschland.
German language source based on DFS statement: DFS: Deutscher Luftraum wieder uneingeschränkt nutzbar - FLUG REVUE |
Let the Great Experiment begin...
Quote:
Now, scientists and engineers have agreed a threshold concentration for ash of 0.002g per cubic metre of air. At or below this concentration, there is no damage to the engine. What time scaling: 15 min? hourly? 8 or 24 hours? ...like terrestrial air pollution? Where are the specs? "Considering that a commercial aircraft will travel about 150 km (80 M) in 10 minutes and that volcanic ash can rise to flight levels commonly used by turbine-engine aeroplanes in half that time, timely response to reports of volcanic ash is essential." from ICAO EUR/NAT OFFICE (Paris): Volcanic Ash Contingency Plan EUR Region (Second Edition September 2009) Page 3 |
RR et al
My take is ICAO have been trying to tackle this issue for years on 2 fronts - (1) where is ash and provide warning for it (VAAC) and (2) what is the engine susceptibility level.
They got nowhere on (2) and then set a susceptibility threshold of 0 which the CAA, and NATS adopted to the letter. One particle in the whole airspace means close it! It seems one of the culprits for this fiasco over the years is the engine manufacturers not supporting efforts on volcanos - plus the head of ICAO, CAA and BA not persuading them to. I don't understand how in PPRUNE and the wider press, RR et al have so far got away scott free. |
"Considering that a commercial aircraft will travel about 150 km (80 M) in 10 minutes and that volcanic ash can rise to flight levels commonly used by turbine-engine aeroplanes in half that time, timely response to reports of volcanic ash is essential." If not that from what level are they talking about and where...... all this scientific detail is amazing. :ugh: Pace |
Per the AMM chapter 5 it will be progressive. Initial inpsection includes evidence of windshield crazing, paint erosion, erosion of pitot tubes, TAT probes, AOA sensors, engine inlets etc, smells in air conditioning etc If findings found during this process then you move on to engine boroscopes etc etc. each manufacturer's AMM will be different but thats a very basic explanation.
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Volcanic dust encounter
Re: Airvanman's post:
"Thomas Cook TCX952P registration G-JMCF (Boeing 757-28A) just made a u-turn to Manchester, it was out over the North Sea off Nofolk/Suffolk, it reported to London and Manchester Control it had an engine bleed problem after an 'intense smell of volcanic ash in the cabin during the climb between FL160 and FL200." FYI here is a partial transcript of what went on: "For information we got the smell of the ash from about 16,000 feet in the climb, it stayed with us even when we were well above FL200. We had no smell at all on the way down and we're passing 14..." ATC: "so between 160 to 200?" "Difficult to say when it stopped in the climb because we still have the smell in here, and it took a while to clear. There are still traces of the smell but it was quite intense in the climb..." (Later) "Negative emergency, no special handling, everything is normal, its just that we have lost one of our engine bleeds, possibly through a contaminated valve." Comments please? |
Re: RR et al
People have been assigning some blame to the engine manufacturers. On here certainly if not in the mainstream media.
As a side note, this is an interesting article covering possible future directions for the manufacturers: The Great Debate UK Debate Archive Impact of the volcano disruption on the airlines | The Great Debate | |
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