@bubbles #1920:
A BA source is now saying that they are not engaged in a act of defience and the 26 flights will not be landing in the UK tonight.

Thanks bubbles re mine at #1919 but BA certainly did orchestrate this to exert pressure and its denial is meaningless. LHR was showing all the US, Canada and Mexico City flights on its arrivals board almost from the get-go, not so much an information exercise for the benefit of a general audience as BA's clear signalling of intention to politicos and the rest.

It does seem we're now into 'posture politics' whereby BA can claim it did nothing other than "assist the decision making process" whilst the, er, decision makers can say something along the lines of, well, hey, as soon as we heard the volcano was *really* calming down, then that's why we lifted the restrictions.

Unfortunately, neither of the above addresses the fundamental issue here.

I just think the anti-NATS and anti-CAA storm is ludicrous. Because surely the only motive the CAA have, or should have, is ensuring safe flight.

Personally I'd rather be regulated by over-caution than cowboy when so many lives are at stake.

Wouldn't you?

Oh and for the person crying wolf about the non appearance of the latest met chart...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271785386.png

Every single aspect of the way that NATS/DfT/Met Office have conducted themselves from day one should be the subject of a public enquiry. It was completely ridiculous to close the whole UK FIR last Thursday when the offending ash was north of Scotland. They used a sledgehammer to crack the nut and it has taken them nearly a week to admit it.

There's a massive gaping chasm of reasonableness in between those two extremes

Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Tuesday April 20, 2040

Response to CAA statement
NATS has received new direction from the UK’s safety regulator, the CAA, on applying restrictions to UK airspace following the volcanic eruption in Iceland.
As soon as revised accurate information is available from the MET Office on the location of the dense ash cloud, NATS will review airspace availability and provide an update to airline operators on any airspace that has been restricted for safety reasons. We will issue a further statement by 2200.

EGLD - yes, and that gap is filled with lots of stuff called hindsight.

Nothing yet from Ryanair ... no flights to Ireland until Friday they were saying earlier I think? How come BA can drop in at Shannon then?

PS I liked the Dads Army graphical anology earlier :p

Forget your human factors and let commercial pressures lead the way.This sudden change goes against the grain for the wrong reasons !!! :\

Whilst i am glad that airspace is now starting to reopen and we can all travel safely.

Political flip flopping isn't the way :=:=

Until I see some a/c on finals into LHR I wouldn't assume anything. There's a lot going on right now and whilst the change of directive appears to have occured suddenly, I think the most important matter is safe landings into LHR if this is what has been decided. No doubt there will be many 'post match' reviews in the coming days. So for the first time in a while I'm happy to track the inbounds and hope we have no issues.

And is that an Iceland Air that's popping down to LHR? How poetic...

....... and that 1800Z map shows the London Airports as engulfed in the same alleged 'ash cloud' defined precisely with its accompanying "UNKNOWN ASH CONCENTRATIONS" footnote as we have be looking at for the past six days.

Tell me that NATS haven't been making UK Controlled Airspace closure decisions based on this ill-defined data.....

Clearly the entire aviation industry has an awful lot of homework to do to make a much better go of it next time. As a society we could also look at not being so dependent on intenational air navigation in future.....

Finally, what do we do when the volcano continues to erupt and the wind (meterological or political) changes direction in the next few days!

Just a note of caution, until every aircraft lands safely without incident due to volcanic ash, and engines have been inspected as now required by the CAA, we will not know for sure if this was the correct decision.........time will tell :=

Level of Ash
 

WW interview on sky was impressive, is it correct that the levels of ash in the UK are much much lower than those other times that caused problems?:eek:

BA2036
 

.. and presumably with a full inspection post landing having deliberately flown through identified volcanic ash during the descent.

This is NOT how aviation safety should be.

@KingCaptain re Walsh:

I know you're joking and yes, agreed, the prospect of WW, Superhero, is, well, diverting.

But things really will surely have reached a pretty dire state of affairs if Walsh somehow comes to be represented as the champion of reason: I've been uncomfortable with BA's strategy right from early this morning.

Media is of course simplistic and populist and seeing the world in black and white without any allowance for particulates means they could now reduce this episode to the level of good guy v bad guy.

For which reason, I'm fully expecting that the flight crew of the Isle of Man meandering BA084 inbound from Vancover but now heading towards what I'm presuming will be a TV-chronicled live LHR landing could finish up being the new tabloid pin-up people of the hour.

They won't want that and neither the industry nor the pax need it.

But all the journalists assiduously reading PPRuNE will doubtless care little about that.

I am normally not a big fan of WW, but I must admit tonight he was very fluent. I am glad he is planning on investigating the actions taken (or not taken ) by the UK PLC, DFT, CAA, NATS , MET Office.

Whoa there folks...good news indeed. However,

there is still ash up there. Ash quanities may be small, but it seems to be down to airlines to risk assess and NOT to fly if it is still too dangerous.

Safe flying!

Scientific Data / Report available
 

A report of the scientific flight from Oberpfaffenhofen/Germany with the research aircraft Falcon 20E D-CMET, that was performed successfully yesterday and took measurements is available.
The report can be downloaded as PDF from http://www.bmvbs.de/Anlage/original_...April-2010.pdf

CAA statment

The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), the UK’s independent specialist regulator with oversight of aviation safety, today issues new guidance on the use of airspace. This is issued in conjunction with the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) and covers the Anglo Irish Functional Airspace Block (FAB).

The new guidance allows a phased reintroduction from 2200 tonight of much of the airspace which is currently closed due to the volcanic ash plume over the UK. There will continue to be some ‘no fly zones’ where concentrations of ash are at levels unsafe for flights to take place, but very much smaller than the present restrictions. Furthermore, the Met Office advise that the ‘no fly zones’ do not currently cover the UK.

“Making sure that air travellers can fly safely is the CAA’s overriding priority.

“The CAA has drawn together many of the world’s top aviation engineers and experts to find a way to tackle this immense challenge, unknown in the UK and Europe in living memory. Current international procedures recommend avoiding volcano ash at all times. In this case owing to the magnitude of the ash cloud, its position over Europe and the static weather conditions most of the EU airspace had to close and aircraft could not be physically routed around the problem area as there was no space to do so. We had to ensure, in a situation without precedent, that decisions made were based on a thorough gathering of data and analysis by experts. This evidence based approach helped to validate a new standard that is now being adopted across Europe.

“The major barrier to resuming flight has been understanding tolerance levels of aircraft to ash. Manufacturers have now agreed increased tolerance levels in low ash density areas.”

Our way forward is based on international data and evidence from previous volcanic ash incidents, new data collected from test flights and additional analysis from manufacturers over the past few days. It is a conservative model allowing a significant buffer on top of the level the experts feel may pose a risk.

In addition, the CAA’s Revised Airspace Guidance requires airlines to:
· conduct their own risk assessment and develop operational procedures to address any remaining risks;
· put in place an intensive maintenance ash damage inspection before and after each flight; and
· report any ash related incidents to a reporting scheme run by the CAA.

The CAA will also continue to monitor the situation with tests both in the air and on the ground.


so how will they inspect after every flight when many airlines go to airports were they have no one to inspect them

Surely the last thing you want is putting in some extra time in contaminated airspace? I've avoided bafflement to the best of my ability, but at this point the biscuit is begging to be taken...

maybe the powers that be are now using a different analysis provider-
https://www.cfmu.eurocontrol.int/PUB...tion_chart.pdf

This worries me
 

The notions that airlines are now responsible for deciding if it safe to fly concerns me. Why is an ash concentration that was considered dangerous yesterday now considered safe tomorrow? NATS and the met-office don't have to answer to shareholders which is why I trust them rather than a bunch of airline execs paid bonuses.

Frankly I'm disgusted by Willy Walsh and BA and the fact that they have leant on the regulator in this way (and I'm usually very pro BA) I have to admire O'Leary (and I'm normally far from a fan of his!!) but actually ironically Ryanair seems far more bothered by the risks of this than BA do - and I never thought I'd say that...

Safety is safety whatever it costs. I personally am not ken to fly tomorrow because I have yet to hear scientific evidence to confirm it is safe.

Desk-pilot

Obviously they are being kept in holds to ensure they arrive after 2100z, and not a minute before!

Even though the decision has been made to reopen EGLL, Nats presumably want to be seen to be retaining the upper hand. Silly really. They should be more concerned with just getting them back on tierra firme - must be some tired crew and pax up there, needlessly holding in my opinion.

BA must have planned this...
 

How long have those flights been circling for? And now they're still meandering and giving their pax an aerial tour of various bits of Britain, circling here there and everywhere to meet that 10pm openning.

So I'm assuming they all loaded FAR more contingency/diversion fuel than usual, which suggests to me, given the meeting Willie has had this evening, that he rather planned this whole operation, knowing the bad PR the government would get if all these flights were diverted and more pax stranded, when the rest of Europe is open.

Very clever tactics for now, but I will reserve judgement on whether this is the right decision, it does seem aviation safety decisions are being made for political reasons, which puts us on a very very slippery slope we really don't want to be near. However, I do tend to trust Willie Walsh is an intelligent enough man to know a fleet of ash-damaged aircraft would cost far more than waiting till the winds change on fri/sat so I assume he has good reason to believe the air is OK.

BA A/C into LHR
 

I have heard that BA have about 15 A/C arriving into LHR through the night tonight. Sadly they only have the staff to handle 3 at a time!!:ugh:

working hours
 

Is the crew of the planes which are holding,not coming in problems with their working hours?:sad:

Surely it is causing more distress to engines holding at 26000 as BAW84 has been around BHX for the past 10 mins, although it is now on a rapid decent so he looks as though he is one of the chosen few.
But is it a good decision to have held them off all this time. Does this make engineering sense...

Awful lot of the use of the word "guidance" from the regulator?

Desk-pilot
 

I would not even bother thinking about it, your job is to fly the aeroplanes and that is it. You should be positively happy to get the all clear to get back to work. What do you know about what goes on behind the scenes?

I would be far more concerned if I were you about the damage it may be causing ones airline. I for one do not want to be grounded any longer as this could become terminal. Some of us have just dodged redundancy and now this.

The sooner we get an all clear the better.

Agreed. This seems to have turned out to be a rather sad evening for UK aviation in many ways. The apparent brinkmanship is particularly appalling. Just heard two on about 18 mile approach to LHR ... if so they'll land early :ok:

neila83: yup, of course it was planned; Denver, Houston, Vancouver, Toronto, Los Angeles, Orlando, Miami, Mexico City. Contingency had to be built in and the planning finalised at least 24 hours ago.

But as deskpilot posted a few minutes ago, an issue forced -- or attempted to be forced -- by someone accountable only to shareholders is no cause for any kind of celebration.

What precedent then?

Be interesting to learn how long it takes for BA to release details of the condition these a/c are in after their extensive jigging around an airspace but recently closed down for being at risk of hazard.

I certainly wouldn't want to be currently in charge of any Speedbird Grand Aerial Tour -- whether the pax are enjoying the view or not.

Quoting from this

The cloud was 4-5 days old at this point.

Speedbird 84 just reported a "burning smell" upon passing a thin layer of cloud between 6000-5500ft when turning right for base leg 27L. Nothing major, no panic, just a smell.

Obviously they don't want to liable for any damaged aircraft or passengers. If Airlines want to take the risk, its their problem.

It appears that WW has played a pretty capable hand today - Gawd knows the situation needed it - but politicians never forget those who have shown up their true incompetence, and if Willie/BA need help at any time while this lot are still in power := he can expect a darned cool reception. BA beware?

Maybe we have reached a tipping point where professionals who understand risk reassert control over the real world from the hands of unelected bureaucrats, jobsworths and political placemen! A lesson for all walks of life. Willie for PM?

Looks like they've landed several minutes before 2100Z. Was the hold to sample the ash as someone suggested?

Anyway, hope things are on the way back to normal for us all...:ok:

a game of chicken
 

WW has been engaged in a high stakes game of Chicken with the regulators all afternoon, he launched 24 wide body aircraft to LHR scheduled to arrive between 1900 and 0400 and then stood back to see if the UK government and associated agencies would back down or if they would stand firm and take the flack for the diversions. A number of them diverted before the government caved in.

WW has won the game, who is correct and incorrect will be decided in the coming days

I wonder, with some trepidation, what the "intensive maintenance ash damage inspection" is going to entail.
Are we going to have to boroscope every engine post flight? Is it going to be the line engineers fault if an engine fails because it was operated in contaminated air to please the CEO & shareholders? :ugh:

Anyone seen this "guidance" yet?

Forget the politics, for time being we need to boroscope the engines, and make sure that our moves are safe!