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-   -   China Eastern 737-800 MU5735 accident March 2022 (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/645805-china-eastern-737-800-mu5735-accident-march-2022-a.html)

Link Kilo 21st Mar 2022 09:04

China Eastern 737-800 MU5735 accident March 2022
 
Various reports on social media of an incident involving China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737-800 operating flight MU5735. Some reports - unconfirmed by news sources as I type - state that the flight has supposedly crashed near Wuzhou.

logansi 21st Mar 2022 09:23

Has crashed into the mountains


logansi 21st Mar 2022 09:31

Final FlightRadar position has a decent rate of 31,000 fpm

Auxtank 21st Mar 2022 09:46

METAR Wuzhou Xijiang Airport (WUZ)

Code:

METAR ZGGG 210830Z 15003MPS 9000 SCT026 OVC050 28/23 Q1009 NOSIG

TBSC 21st Mar 2022 09:51

From FL290 to ground in 2 mins. The aircraft was delivered to the operator new in 2015.

Auxtank 21st Mar 2022 10:00

Manufacturer Serial Number (MSN) 41474
Line Number 5453
Aircraft Type; Boeing 737-89P(WL)

First Flight 5 Jun 2015
Age 6.8 Years
Production Site Renton (RNT)


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a9e0d3653c.jpg

A320 Glider 21st Mar 2022 10:24

FR24 shows FL290 to A090 in a 3 minutes. Is FR24 data reliable in this aspect?

A few things point to losing 20k in 3 minutes.

Unfortunately it isn't looking like a great outcome for all those onboard.
For Boeing, it isn't a MAX.

logansi 21st Mar 2022 10:27

Apparent video of Final moments:


Nose straight down. Just awful

A320 Glider 21st Mar 2022 10:33


Originally Posted by logansi (Post 11203096)
Apparent video of Final moments:

https://twitter.com/aus_forum/status...37550350782466

Nose straight down. Just awful

I am a bit skeptical about that video.
However, if this is verified as true, then this is clearly suicide. Either pilot or cockpit breached.

Ohrly 21st Mar 2022 10:41


Originally Posted by A320 Glider (Post 11203100)
I am a bit skeptical about that video.
However, if this is verified as true, then this is clearly suicide. Either pilot or cockpit breached.

It is the grainiest footage in the world, but it doesn't appear to have a vertical stabiliser to me.

A320 Glider 21st Mar 2022 10:45


Originally Posted by logansi (Post 11203102)
I can confirm its being shared by Chinese state media on Weibo. (Chinese facebook)

That looks too slow to be an aircraft in a nose dive, unless the CCTV playback was slowed down.

switch_on_lofty 21st Mar 2022 10:47

Personally I look because I fly the same type and want to know what happened and if there's anything I can learn to avoid the same happening to me.
Purely from my selfish pov I'd rather see some evidence of what happened than nothing or silence. This allows me to draw inferences or conclusions. If there was a news blackout every time there was an accident or incident it wouldn't advance flight safety.
RIP to those onboard.

TheEdge 21st Mar 2022 10:47


Originally Posted by A320 Glider (Post 11203100)
I am a bit skeptical about that video.
However, if this is verified as true, then this is clearly suicide. Either pilot or cockpit breached.

Looks like no wings or something similar....quite difficult to glide, maybe not a suicidal act.

logansi 21st Mar 2022 11:02

If the Flightradar data is close to correct the final resting place is very close to Wuzhou (ZGWZ) - less than 5km. Wuzhou sees regular 737 flights.

AmuDarya 21st Mar 2022 11:24

It might be helpful for the discussion here (as amateur speculations are not deleted) for professionals here to 1) state their credentials and 2) list causative factors that can be ruled out, given the extremely minimal information available.

That might help the readers here with a baseline against which these drive-by amateur comments can be measured.

Running Ridges 21st Mar 2022 11:44

There’s a video going around showing what looks like part of the lower wing skin fairly intact. Would be surprised if a section that size survived a high speed impact. Maybe indicates partial break up pre-impact?


eagle21 21st Mar 2022 11:49

Is this part of the rudder (a/c right)? When comparing the paint scheme it seems like it is the only place that it could come from. Is so it has been found away from the fire
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f4cef162f.jpeg

Homesick-Angel 21st Mar 2022 12:05

Surely nothing can be ruled in or out at this point?.

The Boxes (if intact) should tell a fair portion of the tale.

The speculation (for those who seem to be offended by it) is to do with a general interest , a fear that something similar should befall any of us and the hope the root cause , if it can be found, might stop it happening again.. it happens on every single similar thread here - if it does bother you it mightn’t be the site for you.

RIP to all.


Flocks 21st Mar 2022 12:13


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11203174)
So when was the last time an autopilot disconnect caused a crash in China? You seem to insinuating it's happened regularly enough to not be an unexpected cause...

​​​​​
If it is not in China it doesn't count ? ...

Flash airline flight 604, malfunction lead to autopilot disconnected and pilot not controling their aircraft, that it is low altitude doesn't change anything, high altitude make it even more easier to loose control.

Adam air flight 574 ... High altitude lost of control after autopilot disconnectedhttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_Airlines_Flight_604

The descent rate varied during the fatal dive, with a maximum recorded value of 53,760 feet per minute,
From memory, I believe that the descent profile of the Adam air is quit similar of the one seems to be seen here.

I also remember a pilot suicide, with the pilot banking the plane high altitude and also same very fast descent from high FL to ground in few minutes, forgot which plane thought. Not saying it what happened there, but descent profile would also fit.

172_driver 21st Mar 2022 12:20

West Air Sweden CRJ200 instrument failure at FL330 in darkness, causing spatial disorientation, is at first glance quite similar to this.

Jason74 21st Mar 2022 12:25


Originally Posted by AmuDarya (Post 11203147)
It might be helpful for the discussion here (as amateur speculations are not deleted) for professionals here to 1) state their credentials and 2) list causative factors that can be ruled out, given the extremely minimal information available.

That might help the readers here with a baseline against which these drive-by amateur comments can be measured.

Credentials:
15 years Royal Australian Air Force. Qualified on PC9, C-130, Macchi MB-326, F/A-18, Hawk-127. Qualified Flying Instructor, Instrument Rating Examiner, Low Level Demonstration Pilot, Flying Safety Officer.
15 years airline pilot. Captain on A350, A330.

Causative Factors:
Absolutely no idea. How could I offer an opinion before the data is in?


My deepest condolences to the families of those involved.

CW247 21st Mar 2022 12:29

All 737-800s at MU are grounded
My hunch is a runaway trim.

Salina Chan 21st Mar 2022 12:36


Originally Posted by CW247 (Post 11203191)
All 737-800s at MU are grounded.

says who? FR24 seems to disagree, there are about ten of their 738s in flight as of this posting

logansi 21st Mar 2022 12:51

Interesting new data in the more granular data from Flightradar24

If the reporting is correct it seems to show that for a short period the crew recovered, gained altitude before the dive resumed.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4dcaf384fd.png

Cool banana 21st Mar 2022 12:53

China Eastern 737-800 MU5735 incident
 
This appears to be the lower outer wing structure, with the fuel tank blow out panels missing,

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2f0df2f4f7.jpg
From Weibo, Aircraft debris near the scene of the accident.

A320 Glider 21st Mar 2022 12:53

Guys, do you remember Germanwings? I stated early on in the discussion that a plane doesn't go from cruise to crash very quickly. I was immediately mobbed on here when I suggested it was suicide. Now the bells are ringing again nearly 7 years to this day (24th Mar) and again I am being mobbed for saying this looks like a suicide event.

I have been on PPRuNe a lot longer than most that say don't speculate.
I do not fly the 737 but many on here do and this will be unfortunately another learning event for us all.

It is healthy for us to have a grown up discussion regarding accidents. This is how we learn in the industry. Our checklists, procedures and everything we do are unfortunately written in the blood of our deceased colleagues.

aeromech3 21st Mar 2022 12:58

From eagle 21 picture. Well the rudder is composite and the blue ends at the trailing edge; strange how some rivets are torn through and others just popped; the aluminium non painted piece looks whole and with no external paintwork unlikely the nose of the rudder, presume could be a back closing panel of the V.fin where the nose of the rudder swings, the green bracket also that area. and so rudder flutter and delamination less likely in MHO.
JAL123 a B747 RPB repair failure leading to an over pressurisation in the tail section comes to mind, though it is unlikely to have been started in this case by a cabin air loss as blow out vents are now designed to cope with this..

A320 Glider 21st Mar 2022 13:01


Originally Posted by aeromech3 (Post 11203210)
JAL123 a B747 RPB repair failure leading to an over pressurisation in the tail section comes to mind, though it is unlikely to have been started in this case by a cabin air loss as blow out vents are now designed to cope with this..

Plus the aircraft was at cruise for quite some time.
If it was a structural failure due to pressurization, it would have occurred a lot sooner in the flight (i.e. during climb, just like JAL123 and CAL611).

henra 21st Mar 2022 13:04


Originally Posted by logansi (Post 11203205)
Interesting new data in the more granular data from Flightradar24

If the reporting is correct it seems to show that for a short period the crew recovered, gained altitude before the dive resumed.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4dcaf384fd.png

Speed vs. vertical speed doesn't seem to make much sense. Maybe timing issue between the columns?

dr dre 21st Mar 2022 13:24


Originally Posted by CW247 (Post 11203191)
All 737-800s at MU are grounded
My hunch is a runaway trim.

In the 3 recent incidents of 737 runaway trim (2 MAXs and Fly Dubai at Rostov) the descent angle with the runaway nose down trim was at a max about 45 degrees. The two social media videos of this incident indicate a far greater descent angle.

Plus there was a period of erratic flight prior to the final nose down pitch and descent, this incident seems to have suffered an almost instant controlled flight in cruise to near vertical descent.

Silver Shadow 21st Mar 2022 13:49

Photos of large pieces of debris on the ground do not seem consistent with being part of the plane when it slammed into the ground. Detached prior? Location where found??

Kenny 21st Mar 2022 13:59


Originally Posted by Cool banana (Post 11203251)
A total of 132 people on board, made up with 123 passenger and 9 crew members, so at least one or both jump seats would had been occupied during the flight, that should rule out hijacking or suicide possible cause.

If you mean the cockpit jump seats must have been occupied, not all 73’s come with the second JS. 5 cabin crew and 2 pilots, might have simply meant that 2 cabin crew were in the CC jump seats.

Last time I saw a flight track like that and a vertical dive to the end, was the Alaska Airlines loss of Stab.

Hogger60 21st Mar 2022 14:07


Originally Posted by Kenny (Post 11203266)
If you mean the cockpit jump seats must have been occupied, not all 73’s come with the second JS. 5 cabin crew and 2 pilots, might have simply meant that 2 cabin crew were in the CC jump seats.

Most Chinese airlines have at least 3 or sometimes 4 pilots. I've seen many crews with Capt, FO, SO, and 1 stripe cadets walking to the airplane. So my guess is 4 pilots and 5 cabin crew.

diclemeg 21st Mar 2022 14:58


Originally Posted by rkenyon (Post 11203235)
Germanwings didn't go from cruise to crash very quickly... it was a slowish descent into the mountain. Nothing like this.

You are correct...however there was another suicide crash by a disgruntled asian pilot, that looks like this. I think it was Silk Air in Indonesia.

Christodoulidesd 21st Mar 2022 15:02

how about cut-off broken rudder like the
a310 in new york in 2001?

DoggyWoggy 21st Mar 2022 15:11

Who remembers the Air Nippon 737-700 incident where the copilot was trying to let the Captain back into the cockpit and accidentally mistook the rudder trim wheel for the cockpit door switch? The pilot ended up putting the aircraft in a 30000ft/min descent with almost full uncommanded rudder deflection.

Unfortunately I can’t post links because I’m below 10 posts but a quick Google of ANA 117 will come up with results.

tupungato 21st Mar 2022 15:11


Originally Posted by Christodoulidesd (Post 11203317)
how about cut-off broken rudder like the American Airlines Flight 587 a310 in new york in 2001?

It was A300, not A310.

EI_DVM 21st Mar 2022 15:12

A rudder hard-over and the resulting bank could likely result in these sorts of rates of descent.

Though personally my mind is quite open as to the cause at this stage.

Initially I'd speculated a deep stall, with the crew unable to get the nose down based on the initial reported VS similar to AF447, however the since revealed fairly consistent and then increasing GS seems to make this appear less likely for now as well as the cruise altitude of FL290 would have a significant margin away from coffin corner.

In my experience emergency descents even with full speed-brake in the Mach to Speed transition only tend to result in a VS of 8,000-9,000 fpm before quickly stabilising at about 4,000-5,000fpm once the transition to speed is complete which seems incompatible with this VS, particularly given the aircraft was pretty much at the MACH/Speed cross over altitude or there abouts.

Wings falling off or other structural failure seems a possibility, this should be able to be determined within the next few days should the debris of the wings or tailplane be found a distance from the main fuselage wreckage.

A suicide possibility exists, but it would have to be very drastic to get the airplane into that sort of attitude, and then the short recovery of altitude before the final dive seems to indicate there was an attempt to recover. IIRC the German Wings incident involved a much more tame 3,500-4,000fpm descent as well with no attempted recovery.

All speculation for the next while.

procede 21st Mar 2022 15:22

Could trim or pilot input get the attitude so nose down? I would think you would need a complete failure of the elevator and/or horizontal tail.


Christodoulidesd 21st Mar 2022 15:35

stand corrected sir


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