FR4978 ATH-VNO diverted, escorted to Minsk, alleged bomb threat – but was it?
 

Ryanair 4978, en route from Athens to Vilnius, has apparently diverted to Minsk shortly before entering Lithuanian airspace. According to unconfirmed reports from the Twittersphere, Belarus authorities forced the plane to divert because of an alleged bomb threat. Flight was escorted by a Mig. Once the plane was on ground, a passenger has reportedly been arrested, who happens to be a dissident journalist facing the death penalty jail time in Belarus, Roman Protasevich.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bbb91284ba.png

Developing:
 

Part II:

Situation is fluid, still developing. As it appears now, Belarus intelligence operatives staged an incident aboard FR4978 as a pretext for Belarus authorities to forcibly divert the flight to Minsk. Belarus government reportedly confirmed sending a MiG to escort. Also, the arrest has been confirmed.

This is a serious international incident. 171 passengers, most of them EU-citizens. Still on ground in Minsk. Lithuanian government has summoned Belarus representative. Various politicians picking up the story, with "hijacking" and "state terrorism" being the choice of words to describe this.

Hijacking a plane by state officials. Seem to be a first. Wonder what the reaction of the EU will be. At first I would freeze all assets of Mr. Lukaschenko anywhere in the EU incl. Switzerland. And auction them off if Mr. Protassewitsch is not released within days. Why does the Belarus president thinks he gets away with this?
If this becomes SOP nobody will buy a ticket.

This is a direct and deliberate provocation of NATO. It cannot be ignored.

Who wants to bet that belavia get added to the EU blacklist, and that Belarusian airspace becomes off limits to EU operators?

According to Air Law, shouldn't a civilian aircraft obey local airspace authorities? What captain should do, when he's asked / ordered to land?

.......... and what will the situation be for those 179 pax and crew in the light of COVID quarantine regulations?

This is an act of air piracy!
 

Belarus “de facto” has hijacked a foreign airplane with international passengers and arrested one of the passengers just for being a dissident to the brutal fascist Lukashenko regime, who is torturing and murdering its opponents! Belarus must be thrown out of ICAO, all the international flights to and from its airports must be suspended indefinitely, and the territory of Belarus declared a no overflight zone for the international operators!

Different thing though. State airplane vs public transport on a commercial operator, based on (wrong) intelligence advise vs. state hijacking of a commercial third country plane. State airplanes follow different rules and sometimes have to cope with different situations. I still remember Ms Merkels plane having to wait in a hold for more than 2 hours as some country would not grant passage mid travel to Asia (and yes, an A340 with just 50 passengers and no cargo can have enough fuel for that). It happens.

However, scheduled air traffic usually does not get diverted by state hijackers or shot down by them, except in Belarus or by Russia.

Kakaru

Declare an emergency and land in Lituainia.
Acording to rumours Belarussian thugs onboard trying to interfere with crew.

Outrageous act of state criminality. Belarus must be made to pay a major diplomatic price for diverting an international flight to commit a criminal kidnapping.

Dannyboy39

With a MIG 29 on your tail and a very trigger happy dictator calling the shots?

AFTA;

Thing is, a very similar situation happened in 2016 with Belarus 737 reg. EW-456PA, which had been forced to land in Kyiv. It's not the first time these things happen, and it looks like if the local authorities really want to land you, they just do.

Not much of a diversion, closer to a false flag operation, followed by an interception. Absolutely unfathomable.

At the moment, we lack a lot of crucial information, particularly as it pertains to the timeline of things happening on the flight. When did the threats of a bomb aboard start? Immediately after entering BY airspace? To my knowledge, we are currently mostly operating on Twitter posts. With hindsight, one would take the AC over Polish (NATO) airspace right then and there, but who here could honestly make that call from a flight deck in that situation. At the time the AC turns for Minsk, they would have been closer to EYVI...so if we assume that this is the point where the crew starts taking the threat seriously, that would be your logical destination...however, a Fulcrum on your wing will surely dissuade you from just "sending it" at that point.

What matters now is that passengers and crew are returned unharmed ASAP and that Belorussian airspace be avoided for the foreseeable future. A criminal and despicable act that needs to have consequences.

The thugs that hijacked the flight will shortly find themselves on no fly lists, with the possible exception of Russia and certain other CIS states. There will also be Interpol red notices if they take the train to any EU states.

Bellingcat is good at seeing through phony passports.

Put a snow plough in front of any EW- aircraft not at home yet ! Stop all flights to or from Belorussia ?
Just a thought

Now FR4978 ATH-VNO diverted to Minsk, alledged bomb threat~but was it?
 

No bomb threat, absolutely unbelieveable.
Just heard on the BBC 1800 NEWS A/C released and on its way, repoered stated it was assumed 1 passenger arrested and not on board.

There was the BOAC VC-10 forced to land in Libya in 1971.
Two passengers taken off and executed.

Apparently the 'hijackers' got off in Minsk.

Well, it looks like I'll be avoiding Belarusian airspace for a while.

This has to be one of the worst examples of an old school dictator still thinking it is the 1970's.

I just hope that people take the right action and not allow this to be a prelude to war.

Landed in Vilnius half an hour ago. I'm sure media will report soon from passengers.

Ryanair have tweeted the following:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57219860

What has the reaction been?

It has been angry and it is growing.

The US ambassador to Belarus, Julie Fisher, tweeted that it was "abhorrent" Mr Lukashenko had faked a bomb threat and sent fighter jets to arrest a journalist.

Lithuania called for EU countries to jointly recommend that planes avoid Belarusian airspace, to summon Belarusian ambassadors, and to protest against the use of military aircraft to divert commercial flights.

European Council chairman Charles Michel said EU leaders would discuss "this unprecedented incident" on Monday at a Council summit and it would not "remain without consequences".

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this was a "serious and dangerous incident".

The UN's agency for civil aviation, ICAO, said it was concerned about an "apparent forced landing" which could be "in contravention of the Chicago Convention" which sets out the rules on airspace and aircraft safety.

Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said: "Hijacking a civilian plane is an unprecedented act of state terrorism that cannot go unpunished."

Analysis

We do not yet know the full details of this story but its implications could be huge.

There are questions about freedom of the air: how vulnerable may other flights be to this kind of behaviour? Some are already calling it an act of aggression or state terrorism, a form of hijacking. In how much danger were the passengers placed? What precedent may be set? Should flights be diverted away from Belarus airspace?

There are questions for international law: to what extent was this act unlawful, as many presume, and if so, what consequences should there be? There are questions about freedom of speech: will critics of other authoritarian regimes fear this could happen to them?

And there are questions for international diplomacy. Political figures across Europe have already called for the EU and Nato to intervene.

There are demands for further sanctions to be imposed on the government of Belarus, whose legitimacy is questioned by many in the West after disputed elections last year.

President Lukashenko is often described as Europe's last dictator. Will the word "pirate" now be added to his list of titles?

EASA should forbid EU operated airplanes to enter Belarus airspace. Simple as that. And then the rest of the world should do the same.

They have to hand over the missing passenger.

Investigation
 

Will this be treated as a "serious incident", to be investigated (and if so by whom - Irish AAIU, or Greeks/Lithuanians?).

Was it an EI-registered a/c?

Would be very interesting to see some hard facts published ASAP. I know others have touched on this, but crew decision to divert to Minsk is certainly interesting when one considers much greater proximity to Vilnius, I would like to see ATC transcripts, know facts of when did MiG appear, did crew see it, etc. etc.

Altogether a very shocking event, and I for one am surprised to see EU a/c still crossing Belorussian airspace some hours later.

Michael O'Leary is uncharacteristically quiet.

KeyPilot

EI-reg: no. Polish reg.
ATC transcripts: LiveATC doesn't have coverage of the FIR. Not sure if there are any other sites listening for that airspace (other than various military operations of course)
Crew testimony may be slow in being forthcoming - Ryanair may not want to look like an involved party if it meant having to divert around Belarussian airspace indefinitely - would make VNO-KBP a bit awkward for one thing.

Flightradar claims their data indicates FR crew delayed descent

BristolScout

Indeed, but as MarkD writes it is not in his interests to make noise about this. All it has cost him is $ few thousand in Jet A-1 and maintenance costs. He doesn't care about rule of law/human rights in Belarus. If Belorussian airspace gets closed to EU a/c, he stands to lose much more than the cost of the fuel on this one flight.

Mike-Bracknell

You are right, but with the leadership of the country resorting to hijacking, what else must happen in order for some serious steps to be taken?!!

If the same crew took the plane to ATH their FDP would be quite formidable at 15+ hours.

It would be politicians' duty to take action and close Belarus airspace for EU planes. Sadly this is not going to happen as the EU unlike the US can't even be bothered to close airspace where live fighting is going on and leaves it to airlines to decide whether to fly there. This is not really surprising as the EU has decided it doesn't need one aviation safety authority for one level of safety but 27 national authorities torn between flight safety and promotion of aviation interpreting the same rules with wildly varying outcomes.

As pointed out airlines are not really interested as state hijackings don't rate high on the danger scale and re-routings are expensive which hurts even more in meagre times like these.

The Captain has final authority over an aircraft’s operation, however in the event of a GENUINE hi jacking or bomb on board the local authorities would be justified in keeping the aircraft away from built up areas or potential targets and a forced diversion to a suitable facility would be in order.

This however, was state terrorism along the lines of a rogue state or 1980s Libya and needs to be dealt with seriously, as any similar action by an outlaw organisation would be. Making false bomb threats and unlawful interference in the operation of an aircraft just to start with.

As captain would you have taken the risk with a MIG in your window? As armchair pilot it is easy to ask for bold decisions.
You learn in flight school, if a fighter shows up and makes contact, you follow their and ATC instructions. That's exactly what they did.

The maths are not completely adding up.
The "rumours are"
Disruption on board the flight, allegedly several Russian / Belarusian special forces created some safety concern with the cabin crew. Note these people did not continue the flight from Belarus to VNO after the Ryanair flight was released.

Bomb threat procedure (SOP) would NOT have been to have divert to a country "outside" the EU - that is ruled by an unstable mental leader Lukashenko, who has complete disregard for human rights, free speech or any freedom that does not present him as the "great" leader he himself perceives himself to be. In addition VNO airport was much closer then Minsk, so again diverting to Minsk would NOT have been SOP.

Furthermore any CREDIBLE Bomb threats should follow certain procedures and a certain "chain of command"
A Commander, unless he has seen a "bomb device" with his own eyes, and has some knowledge of explosive devices, is not the one who makes these decisions, if it is a credible "bomb threat" or not.

The only way the RYR flight can defend diverting to Minsk, would be that it was forced to change course due to an aggressive interception. The current Ryanair press release does not reflect any current information of this yet. I would assume they would be trying to keep this information confidential as long as they are able.

At what moment did the MIG show up? How many MIG's did show up. 2 - 3 more minutes straight ahead, and they would have been in Lithuanian airspace.

This was a hijack by air.

Unfortunately we do have similar "precedence" within Europe, when the airplane of the Bolivian president Evo Morales was forced to land in Vienna, as they believed Snowden was onboard.
That was both a forced diversion and search of the aircraft by the Austrian authorities. If they in fact was searching for Snowden, his life would / could have been in danger if he had been returned to the USA.

Then again Snowden was on the "right side" and if found should have been protected regardless. But we will never know what would have happen if he had been found.

@2unlimited "The only way the RYR flight can defend diverting to Minsk, would be that it was forced to change course due to an aggressive interception. The current Ryanair press release does not reflect any current information of this yet."

The Ryanair press release also makes no mention of six +/- lost passengers.

The political problem we face here is that Lukashenko (Belarus) would not act like this without some sort of "approval" from Putin.

Whatever we think we are watching here now, could be the pre-text for a future invasion / annexation of the Baltics. This has always been one of Putin's long term goals, reunite the old Soviet states.

What happen after MH17? Not a lot.
What happen after invasion of Crimea, not a lot.
What happen after the UK poisoning attempts, not a lot.
Can we see a trend here now?

Putin has without being directly involved tested the waters, and watching the the re-action, or should we already now predict there will be complete in-action from either ICAO, EU or NATO, as nobody really wants to poke the "bear".

If only Belarus had oil like in the ME, the rest of the world would be truly outraged, instead we remain on the merry go around, trying to keep the bear content, so it won't attack us.
First action should be stopping Nord Stream 2, dependency on Russian energy, how dumb can you really be within Europe?

Russia are playing their "war games" with both Europe and UK, knowing they are all talk without a bite. It is embarrassing to watch, and having Trump for 4 years did not exactly help as he was clearly in some debts to Putin.

So what horse did Russia have in this event? If there really were four Russian Spetznaz/FSB/OMON other special ops, why were they there and why taking action on behalf of Belarus?

Pertinent to the discussion, some of the above mentioned "other ICAO guidance" happens to be the Warsaw Montréal Convention (1971) Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation, attached below.

Notable content relevant to the topic:

Article 1 para 1 provision (e)
Article 3
Article 4 para 2 both provisions (a) and (b)
Article 6
Article 14 para 1 - which signatory Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic did not accept (p. 19 of the pdf)

It's a short read but a lot of headache for Polish diplomacy.