xcris

Don't know about the rest, but Finnish authorities have
A: banned Belavia from operating in Finland. This in practice does affect Belavia as it has had four weekly flights to HEL (source: https://www.traficom.fi/en/news/traf...sation-finland )
B: Recommended Finnish carriers to avoid Belarus airspace and that all the carriers have agreed to comply (source: https://www.traficom.fi/en/news/euro...further-notice )

Latvia: https://www.caa.gov.lv/en/article/la...raffic-belarus
Sweden: https://www.transportstyrelsen.se/sv...sian-airlines/
Estonia apparently making official announcement about it later today.

Thank you very much, everybody!
France and UK as well, right from the source:
Belavia news
25 May 2021 The United Kingdom and France imposed flight bans
https://en.belavia.by/news/4674378/
Finland and Czech Republic have banned flights (updated)
https://en.belavia.by/news/4724337/

Even if on the site is a notification on ban from Ukraine (https://en.belavia.by/news/4674385/) many flight overflown today UKR - maybe the ban was on UKR destinations/origins.

In addition: Due to flight bans from a number of countries, Belavia is forced to cancel flights from 27 May to 30 October 2021 to the following destinations: Warsaw; Milan; Amsterdam; Rome; Frankfurt; Berlin; Munich; Hannover; Vienna; Brussels; Barcelona; Kaliningrad.
https://en.belavia.by/news/4724345/

Russia is putting some pressure in not allowing flight plans that does not overfly Belarus. As first entry point into Russia is located a Belarus-Russia border. (2x Air France flights canceled due to this reason)

Ops Group assessment.

Well looks like AF276, CDG-NRT is having a go - it's currently (1350 UTC) northeast bound over Lithuania .

Edit to add: Looks to have entered Russian airspace Ok, there is an AF cargo and also KLM flight not far behind, so if there was a problem this AM it looks like it has been resolved.

Something interesting is going on, as earlier in the day there was a RAF Rivet Joint cruising in Poland/Lithuania area, and now there are a couple of Beech Guardrails minding their business, circling in Lithuania.

Russia seems to have denied entry to AF and OS flights to Moscow that had rerouted to stay outside Belarus before.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ss-2021-05-26/

Russia denies Austrian landing permit if the flight does not route over Belarus
 

Shocking development -

https://www.dw.com/en/breaking-russi...rts/a-57690737

Less Hair

Interesting...looking like "ops normal" over that part of the world now - the usual stream of PM eastbounds to Japan from Europe (e.g. KLM/BA/AF)

wiggy

are you sure? I don’t think your reality matches what the radar says.

Beamr

That is normal business since many month

Dan Dare

I'm obviously being a bit dull, maybe a result of too many beers in the truck over the years because you're going to have to spell it out what you think I'm missing.

At the moment it looks like the Longhaul eastbounds from western Europe to Japan this PM have pretty much taken one of the standard routes - that is north east over the Baltic States and then into St Peterburgh FIR and onwards..

Sure, there may be fewer flights, possibly due Covid, but other than that?

​​​​​​(Just for clarity/ save us being at cross purposes over this, I raised the point earlier because there was a comment upthread about flight plans into Russian Airspace not being accepted if they didn't route via the Belorussian FIR).

Sitting neatly on the fence

It ‘may’ be purely coincidence but three representatives of Vlad’s finest have arrived in Minsk today
1627 RA-96017 IL-96 srs 300 Rossiya
1827 RA-64522 TU-214SUS Rossiya
1855 RA-64057 TU-204-300 Rossiya

All from Moscow Vnukovo !!
Comments, observations and or speculation welcome

Wall Street Journal (website) now reporting further statements by Group of 7 and EU, as well as ICAO Council:

"On Thursday, foreign ministers of the Group of Seven industrialized nations and the EU’s foreign policy chief called the diversion 'a serious attack on the rules governing civil aviation' and called on the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization to investigate the incident. The ICAO later said it would do so, and ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano said the event 'posed apparent and serious threats to the legal framework' governing commercial aviation."

The same article reported on a "private" letter from MOL to Belarus CAA, protesting Belarus actions and disputing its version(s) of the events and communications.

( While supporting, generally, an action by ICAO "to investigate the incident", this SLF/atty questions what process, and by or under what specific authorities, ICAO investigatory action would be conducted. Thus far, no announcement or statement about this by ICAO has been located.)

Reuters reporting on ICAO Council meeting today (27 May):

U.N. aviation body discusses call to probe Belarus airliner grounding | Reuters

Regardless of the lack of a definitive detailed account of what actually happened, I can't help thinking that this was a clumsy, ill thought through solo run by Belarus.

I'd expect Putin is furious about this incident, it threatens his strategy regarding allied states buffering his borders and indirectly drags him into an international s**t storm.

I'm glad this mess is not in my in tray.

Okay, thanks wiggy. I stand corrected.

ICAO Press release 27 May 2021
 

ICAO Council to pursue fact finding investigation into Ryanair FR4978

Montréal, 27 May 2021– The ICAO Council expressed its strong concern today at the apparent forced diversion of Ryanair Flight FR4978, a commercial passenger aircraft flying in Belarus airspace on Sunday, 23 May 2021.

At a special meeting convened, the ICAO Governing Body underlined the importance of establishing the facts of what happened, and of understanding whether there had been any breach by any ICAO Member State of international aviation law, including the Convention on International Civil Aviation (Chicago Convention) and its Annexes.

Recalling Article 55 (e) of the Chicago Convention, the Council decided to undertake a fact-finding investigation of this event, and in this connection requested the ICAO Secretariat to prepare an interim report to the Council for a subsequent meeting of the current session, presenting the available facts and relevant legal instruments.

The Council also called upon all ICAO Member States and other relevant stakeholders to collaborate with this fact-finding investigation in the interests of ensuring the safety and security of civil aviation, and offered the assistance and expertise of ICAO in the pursuit of this endeavor.

"The Council has therefore decided that all relevant facts should be officially established through an ICAO investigation conducted by the ICAO Secretariat," emphasized ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano.

ICAO Secretary General Dr. Fang Liu responded to the Council's decision during the meeting and assured the full support and cooperation of the Secretariat in implementing this decision.
Link:
ICAO Council to pursue fact finding investigation into Ryanair FR4978

Putin seems to have doubled down in concert with Lukashenko.

It all depends whether western airlines continue to refuse to transit Belarus airspace, even if that means they won't get clearance to land in Moscow.

Putin and Lukashenko, with some reason, likely believe that it will blow over in a month or so.

Will they be proven wrong?

Trust in ATC is a pretty fundamental requirement and given that IFALPA has described this as "a wilful hazard to safety of passengers/crew" (Twitter 24th May), I'd have expected a bit more pressure from the pilot unions (quite apart from the UK/EU "requests" to airlines and ongoing ICAO discussions) in respect of overflight suspension.
Have I missed something?

There goes the belarussian story, the email service provider has confirmed that the email was sent AFTER the plane was already turned (read: lured) to Minsk.

"A bomb threat cited by Belarusian authorities as the reason for forcing a Ryanair jetliner carrying a dissident journalist to land in Minsk was sent after the plane was diverted, privacy-focused email provider Proton Technologies AG said on Thursday."

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ss-2021-05-27/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57271949

So, the Russians are now complicit. We really should shut down ANY flights going to OR through Belarus, AND Russia if they're going to play hardball like this. It was only ever going to end this way.

Back to the old days of London-Tokyo routing via Anchorage ?

I would not bet on that one , the current Tran Siberian routes are the only reason Russia keeps the ATC centers along the routes , and collect the hefty route charges associated with the overflights. The centers largely sustain the (poor) local economy , IATA will make pressure to keep the routes open, too much money involved , and not in the current Covid-crisis. But with Putin you never know.

The AvgasDinosaur

Long-scheduled meeting of the post-Soviet CIS states' heads of government in Minsk today. Belarus currently chairs the state alliance. Got carried away at work (media) myself as 96017 is a plane frequently used by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. But I had to pull my headlines after this down-to-earth explanation was to be found, outside all main Western media.

Max Tow

The alert issued by IFALPA also included the European Cockpit Assn. (ECA) - not certain of this but I don't recall the Int'l Federation having been joined by other pilot labor organizations in issuance of prior bulletins about urgent safety-related issues or matters.

Regardless of that smaller point, if you were in charge - officially - of IFALPA, would you not take the most strident and definitive position, consistent with the facts as they reasonably appear to be at that time, in your initial public statement about the incident? IFALPA (and ECA) certainly are aware of the difficulties involved for mobilizing meaningful, actual, concrete action against entities or countries who violate important safety-related procedures and provisions. Aren't the interests of pilots best advanced and protected by taking the strongest (reasonable) stand to begin with, hoping to influence the several next phases of responses by civil aviation groups on the international level?

Article 55(e) may or may not have been relied upon previously by ICAO Council for instituting an investigation; if it has been relied upon, the situation is not one this SLF/atty recalls. This is not to claim that the Council's action yesterday will lead to adequate, or even partially adequate, solutions. I'm not sure there's even a consensus at the Council or in the broader civil aviation community internationally about how to define the problem at this time. Is it applying leverage (also known usually as "sanctions" though leverage has heavier meaning) to force release of the persons removed from the passenger cabin of the aircraft? Is it something intended to "teach Belarus a lesson"?

Not shrugging at the expressions of cynicism - about whether anything real can or will be done. At the same time, if one agrees this situation is unprecedented either in its severity, or methods deployed, or both, then cynicism can wait. The IFALPA-ECA statement has a ring of seriousness about it, IMHO, and this warrants endowing the Article 55(e) process to be conducted by the Secretariat with a measure of confidence. If you have heard the SecGen give a speech, and especially if you've heard the SecGen take Q&A after such a speech, perhaps you'd agree that any process this particular SecGen will conduct about a matter of such seriousness will also be a very serious and focused process. (True, a new SecGen takes office soon, but then there's something about "legacy" kicking around the big office building in Montreal.)

Belavia flight refused entry into Polish airspace and returned to Minsk. Not really shocking considering the past couple of days, but I think that they need a refresher course on holding patterns!

Quite the opposite, this is exactly how Putin likes it. The buffer states take the s**t storm (as if the EU would ever act against Russia as they should) while all Russian dissidents are warned should they not have gotten the message the Scripal or Navalny ‘incidents’ send, and Russians get the confirmation they ‘need strong man Putin’ or they end up in the same chaos... We should also not forget MH17 and al the Russian bs surrounding it...

I really feel that if the international community doesn't take serious action, not only in aviation - such as a no-fly zone over Belarus - but also serious sanctions, then this sort of thing will be seen as acceptable practice. It's a very dangerous, and also a very sad moment for international air travel.

"The White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said on Friday the United States was also suspending a 2019 agreement between Washington and Minsk that allowed carriers from each country to use the other’s airspace, and taking other actions against the government of President Alexander Lukashenko."

In essence, BY carriers not allowed in US airspace, but does this mean that US based carriers are out of BY skies, too?

Furthermore, United States will reimpose “full blocking sanctions” on nine Belarusian state-owned enterprises on 3 June, prohibiting US persons from dealing with those businesses. I'm struggling to find out what are the companies, if it is oil/potash, it can hit pretty well.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...plane-incident

The article didn't state the date in which it will come effective, it might be 3rd June as the other sanctions.

diffident

Whilst you are quite right in that view, I see little evidence of most leaders taking serious action against leaders like Lukashenko or Putin. Tinkering at the edges seems to be the norm, with a few exepctions, like the Polies.

The PM in the UK had to be leaned on hard by back benchers and commitees simply to bin the idea of Huwawei in our phone networks and his record against Putin is pretty weak. He and others will put larger economic interests at the fore and Putin et al know it.

BlankBox

"https://www.aerotime.aero/28034-FR49...s-in-the-story"

Hmmm.

Using fighter aircraft to help divert a crippled or erring airliner, is an approved Geneva Convention procedure in the age where all ATP's did not speak English. Fighters/Military aircraft, flying abreast of airliner's cockpit waggled their wings as a sign language to persuade the airliner in question to follow the guiding/friendly/military aircraft. What I wish to convey is that procedure is perfectly legal.

The article in aerotime is very well made and identifies the loops in the story . As the the interception or not by the Mig29, the Lithuanian air defense have received a beautiful JTPS primary radar for Japan in 2020 , so the interception has been watched and recorded, and the Lithuanian prosecutor will most probably had access already , so the truth will come out one day or the other.

Traditionally in aviation "loops" are performed in the vertical, what the FR flight did would be probably be described as "orbits" or just perhaps "holds" by most of us here.

I know this sounds very pedantic but whilst the article gets top marks for presentation many of us here will hear alarm bells ringing when they see the author use "loops" in the context they have done. It might also bring into question how accurate the rest of the piece is (I see in the comments somebody has a gripe about the author switching between UTC and local, UTC plus 2).