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-   -   No Airbus for Ryanair (https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/632449-no-airbus-ryanair.html)

Cyclic Hotline 13th May 2020 18:06

No Airbus for Ryanair
 
But on Tuesday, O’Leary said he currently viewed talking with Airbus as a waste of his time.

“We would not initiate talks with Airbus until such time as Airbus wants to initiate talks with us,” he said in an interview.

“Until they need an order from the Ryanair Group, frankly we are wasting our time talking to Airbus,” he added, without elaborating.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN22O1IZ

davidjpowell 13th May 2020 18:41

One up for the Boeing negotiator...

Banana Joe 13th May 2020 18:57

Can't wait to see how many 737 MAX 10's they're getting.

Less Hair 13th May 2020 19:49

And I thought it had been something personal between JL and MOL.

krismiler 13th May 2020 23:22

Ryanair take most of the MAXs at a give away price for a complete fleet replacement with brand new aircraft. They operate them for 10 years and then get a big discount on Boeing’s B737 replacement when it becomes available.

Ryanair get a new fuel efficient fleet which will require little maintenance and have high dispatch reliability.

Boeing get rid of the backlog of aircraft taking up the employees car park, get some cash flow and retain a major customer whose vote of confidence in the aircraft will encourage others to buy it.

A win for both sides.

vikingivesterled 13th May 2020 23:47


Originally Posted by krismiler (Post 10781833)
Ryanair take most of the MAXs at a give away price for a complete fleet replacement with brand new aircraft. They operate them for 10 years and then get a big discount on Boeing’s B737 replacement when it becomes available.
Ryanair get a new fuel efficient fleet which will require little maintenance and have high dispatch reliability.
Boeing get rid of the backlog of aircraft taking up the employees car park, get some cash flow and retain a major customer whose vote of confidence in the aircraft will encourage others to buy it.
A win for both sides.

Are there not 3 different versions of the Max (8, 9 and the Ryanair 10) with different cabin lengths and differences in the undercarriage, painted in different colours and with different seat configurations, seat types, loo placements and air stairs. A bit of a job making them all into Ryanair planes. And with the addition of the NG Ryanair would operate planes with 4 different seat capacities messing up their all planes can fly all routes and all loads because they are all the same and we only assign tail numbers the night before strategy.
There are other airlines commited to Boeing that will still need new planes in a couple of years. Planes don't stop ageing just because they don't fly, rather the opposite. And what would Boeing make in the meantime until they can come up with a new bread and butter plane. They can't live on the very low number of widebodies there is a market for. And after a couple of years all the skilled furloughed staff will have found other jobs, or retired, and the factories gone into disarray.

krismiler 14th May 2020 00:27

Compared to getting the MAX back into the air, changing seats and repainting are minor details. Having differing seating capacities isn’t insurmountable, especially if the lower capacity aircraft are based at a major hub and assigned to appropriate flights, other airlines cope.

Depending on the price, anti dumping laws might be a problem if the aircraft are sold below production cost, which may happen as Boeing might have to aim to minimise their losses instead of making a profit.

Anti Skid On 14th May 2020 05:18


Originally Posted by krismiler (Post 10781833)
Ryanair take most of the MAXs at a give away price for a complete fleet replacement with brand new aircraft. They operate them for 10 years and then get a big discount on Boeing’s B737 replacement when it becomes available.

Ryanair get a new fuel efficient fleet which will require little maintenance and have high dispatch reliability.

Boeing get rid of the backlog of aircraft taking up the employees car park, get some cash flow and retain a major customer whose vote of confidence in the aircraft will encourage others to buy it.

A win for both sides.

Except many punters aren't going to want to be passengers on the Max, bit like the 70's and the DC-10

carmel 14th May 2020 05:47


Originally Posted by Anti Skid On (Post 10781972)
Except many punters aren't going to want to be passengers on the Max, bit like the 70's and the DC-10

Except by the time the Max is flying again, it could well be ticketed as the 737-8 or 737-9. LCC customers mainly look at prices before aircraft type.

ReturningVector 14th May 2020 05:47


Originally Posted by Anti Skid On (Post 10781972)
Except many punters aren't going to want to be passengers on the Max, bit like the 70's and the DC-10

I disagree. Most people will just look up the cheapest flight option without paying attention to those details.
If they would Ryanair wouldn’t be so successful to begin with :)

krismiler 14th May 2020 05:48

Whilst being interviewed in the queue waiting to board a Ryanair flight to Alicante, Tracy 19 a shop assistant from Croydon stated that she had been following the news regarding the return to service of the MAX very carefully and was satisfied that Boeing had addressed all the issues put forward by the FAA and EASA. She felt that the additional training required for pilots transitioning onto the MAX from previous generations of the B737 was adequate, and modifications made to the flight control system and software would prevent a trim runaway. She described her main interests as fashion, boy bands, having her hair done and certification requirements for passenger aircraft.

She was looking forward to going out and getting legless with her mates that night and praised Ryanair for their cheap tickets.

neville_nobody 14th May 2020 05:48


Except many punters aren't going to want to be passengers on the Max, bit like the 70's and the DC-10
Noone will ever know. They will retrofit the new winglets on every NG so over time noone can tell the difference.

Bob Viking 14th May 2020 06:13

Bravo
 

Originally Posted by krismiler (Post 10781982)
She described her main interests as fashion, boy bands, having her hair done and certification requirements for passenger aircraft.

You made me chuckle.

BV

vikingivesterled 14th May 2020 11:55


Originally Posted by krismiler (Post 10781866)
Having differing seating capacities isn’t insurmountable, especially if the lower capacity aircraft are based at a major hub and assigned to appropriate flights, other airlines cope.

Other airlines may cope, but at a price. It is part of what gives Ryanair the cost advantage to not only be a Low Fares airline but a Low Cost airline.
Let things slide with a bit extra work for sales, a bit more work for ops, a few more parts in stores, a few more types of pilots and you are on the slippery slope.

SMT Member 14th May 2020 12:19

Ryanair is long past having exhausted any creditability with Airbus. They grew tired of offering very competitive terms and conditions, only to find MoL using that to put pressure on Boeing; there was never any intention of ordering from Airbus.

Thus, whenever Ryanair submits a RFQ to Airbus, they reply by sending the list price with little to no discounts and a clear message of "take it or leave it".

Airbus have no intention of wasting their time on Ryanair.

That Ryanair are spinning to make it sound as if it's a decision they've taken is hardly a surprise. What they will find, however, is that Boeing are also tuned in to the realities of their relationship with Airbus, and are therefore less inclined to find their sharpest pencil. Reap what you sow, in other words.

If and when the Max hits an unsurmountable roadblock, preventing RTS, Ryanair will find that they've dug themselves into the deepest of holes when it comes to fleet renewal. But, of course, there's always China and the C919; good luck with that!

Saulman 14th May 2020 12:53


Originally Posted by Anti Skid On (Post 10781972)
Except many punters aren't going to want to be passengers on the Max, bit like the 70's and the DC-10


The average passenger couldnt tell a Dash 8 to a Boeing 747. Most people, don't care about airplanes, merely a means from A to B.

Imagegear 14th May 2020 13:18


Originally Posted by Saulman (Post 10782387)
The average passenger couldnt tell a Dash 8 to a Boeing 747. Most people, don't care about airplanes, merely a means from A to B.

….not to mention that nowhere in the reservations system will it specify that you are travelling on a Max, it will say 737-800 and only someone with aviation knowledge will know.

My guess is the Max word will never appear on the aircraft or in any literature BUT those who know will talk.

IG


Ian2206 14th May 2020 13:21

MOL will no doubt, be watching the A320 at Lauda to gauge a comparison (albeit as RYR will measure it) of its operational and through life costs to the 737-800. How Id love to see that analysis.

Alsacienne 14th May 2020 14:42


Except by the time the Max is flying again, it could well be ticketed as the 737-8 or 737-9. LCC customers mainly look at prices before aircraft type
Thought the current 737-800 series - Ryanair's current star - was already labelled as 737-8 on aircraft type websites ...

procede 14th May 2020 14:51

If they do not offer you travel insurance, it is probably a Max.

DaveReidUK 14th May 2020 15:12


Originally Posted by Imagegear (Post 10782409)
….not to mention that nowhere in the reservations system will it specify that you are travelling on a Max, it will say 737-800 and only someone with aviation knowledge will know.

While the Max was flying, it was timetabled as 7M8 (in the case of the Max 8), that being the IATA designator for the type. The 737-800 is 738 or 73H, depending on the configuration and operator.

So fairly easy to tell apart.

kiwi grey 15th May 2020 01:22


Originally Posted by vikingivesterled (Post 10781851)
Are there not 3 different versions of the Max (8, 9 and the Ryanair 10) with different cabin lengths and differences in the undercarriage, painted in different colours and with different seat configurations, seat types, loo placements and air stairs. A bit of a job making them all into Ryanair planes. And with the addition of the NG Ryanair would operate planes with 4 different seat capacities messing up their all planes can fly all routes and all loads because they are all the same and we only assign tail numbers the night before strategy.
There are other airlines commited to Boeing that will still need new planes in a couple of years. Planes don't stop ageing just because they don't fly, rather the opposite. And what would Boeing make in the meantime until they can come up with a new bread and butter plane. They can't live on the very low number of widebodies there is a market for. And after a couple of years all the skilled furloughed staff will have found other jobs, or retired, and the factories gone into disarray.

There are five versions of the B737MAX:
  • B737-7: hardly any ordered, may sink without trace in the marketplace, it's a shortened -8
  • B737-8: the bread-and-butter main big-selling model, fairly competitive against the A320neo
  • B737-8200: the "Ryanair special", a -8 with modified seating and exit arrangements so it can fly with 200 (well actually 199) passengers. Not yet certificated.
  • B737-9: a bit longer than the -8 and completely uncompetitive against the A321neo/XL/XLR, many orders swapped for the -10 once that was announced
  • B737-10: a bit longer again and with new main gear to stop the tail scraping on rotation, not quite so uncompetitive against the A321neo/XL/XLR. Not yet certificated.
It would be difficult to change a -8 to a Ryanair -8200 as there are extra emergency exits on the -8200, so I doubt that the 'car park' -8s could practicably be converted to -8200s for delivery to Ryanair.

b1lanc 15th May 2020 01:34


Originally Posted by neville_nobody (Post 10781983)
Noone will ever know. They will retrofit the new winglets on every NG so over time noone can tell the difference.

I never liked or trusted the DC-10 but I still flew on it - no choice on some routes and honestly, look at the overall safety record of the industry regardless of type.

krismiler 15th May 2020 01:56


Ryanair is long past having exhausted any credability with Airbus. They grew tired of offering very competitive terms and conditions, only to find MoL using that to put pressure on Boeing; there was never any intention of ordering from Airbus.
It was the same with British Airways, or "Boeing Always" as they were known. Before they ordered the A320 they actually had to go to Toulouse and persuade Airbus that they were serious and not simply using them to get a better price from Boeing. Easier done when operating a diverse range of aircraft rather than a single type fleet.

vikingivesterled 15th May 2020 11:36

There must be more to this no Airbus story than meets the eye. Having a fleet of both aircrafts should easen creating a bidding war between the manufacturers, unless MOL thinks this is going to be difficult to achieve anyway under the rest of his tenure. Could there be something in the taking all the produced but order cancelled ExMax's story. If they placed all the 8's with Buzz and the 9's with Lauda (depending on how many are built of each) and the 10's with Ryanair/Malta, they could still in principle have a single aircraft fleet at each sub-airline (apart from the swapover from previous generation).

Less Hair 15th May 2020 12:06

Maybe it was more of an offer too good to be true? If some US major folds this year as rumored (I don't hope so) plenty of production slots might become available on short notice at firesale prices. The MAX 8 200 is custom tailored to FR and some perfect fit to them. And maybe there is some future wide body part of the deal we don't know about yet?

rotorwills 15th May 2020 14:36

If you take a quick look at Ryan's average age of its fleet you will see that they don't need make any purchases for 15 years plus. Never mind that, do posters not realise that the damage this virus has done, isn't going to go away with or without a vaccine. Air passengers aren't going to get back to anything like the level we have had for quite sometime. The locos drove the growth for the last 25 years. The dogfight for traffic will certainly provide airline failures which in turn will release numerous aircraft into the market.


Boeing need MOL and MOL needs Boeing, do you not realise that the two will do deals which will inevitably be better for Ryan. Simple reason, the USA need Boeing and will support them to the hilt. MOL will buy Boeing and be better placed. Simple view is in a negotiation would you back Trump, or like, to prevail over MOL. I've a good idea who I would put my money on, clue for you, he ain't got a blonde rug. Lol.


Less Hair 15th May 2020 16:04

Whenever FR got airplanes at high rebates like after 9-11 they made a deal reselling them young later on to the next operator. Not sure if current Boeing contracts still permit this business model unlimited but the old one did. There is a market for NGs so why not standardize their own fleet with the most efficient engine like they did with wingleted NGs before? Now or never is the time. By definition they must be able to offer the cheapest tickets so they need the most efficient equipment don't they?

Banana Joe 15th May 2020 16:06

On the cargo side, the NG has increasingly become more and more popular. The -400 is a good short-medium haul freighter, but the airframes currently flying are starting to show their age. Next West Atlantic's NGs will be former Ryanair airframes.

vikingivesterled 15th May 2020 17:21

Ryanair used to let the NG's go after about 7 years when they where due the i believe P12 (or was it 14) as it was called, but basically the first major month long strip down service. This also coincided with when the planes went out of warranty with Boeing and was adapted when the previous practice of sending rotable parts for repairs with independent repairers was replaced with a direct spares line for in warranty planes from Boeing itself. So the fleet is becoming ready for replacement. Even though since its down to hours and cycles they might get an extra year out of them now.
I also just read that Amazon is having more 737-800's converted as quickly as they can to Prime marked freighters, but getting other airlines using such aircraft to operate of them. So the market for newish NG's coming out of passenger traffic exists even now during CoVid19.
However some seem to forget that Boeing also has Southwest, an even larger outfit than Ryanair and that mainly flies in a single jurisdiction. So in principle they should have more than 1 solution for their ExMax's. And as things stands the US market will probably be the first to let it fly again, and before elsewhere.

krismiler 15th May 2020 23:04

So basically Ryanair are like Singapore Airlines, operate a young fleet of modern efficient aircraft and move them on once more involved maintenance becomes due. Similar with the cabin crew, mostly younger and from the East, Eastern Europe instead of the Far East though.

Who would have thought these operators would have anything in common.;)

kildress 16th May 2020 07:05


Originally Posted by krismiler (Post 10783749)
Similar with the cabin crew, mostly younger and from the East, Eastern Europe instead of the Far East though.

Can you elaborate on the prescribed maintenance schedule for this inventory?

krismiler 16th May 2020 09:27

Leave Romania and start work with Ryanair whilst still young and attractive. During this time try and marry a pilot, settle down give up work and have children. Should this not happen, move onto your plan “B” as you don’t want to be doing a job like this for too long for what they pay.

Either way, the company maintain a fresh, young cohort of cabin crew.

Full service airline - If plan “A” fails stay with the company for the pay and benefits even though you are well past your prime, secure in the knowledge that western employment laws and unions ensure your job is safe. Spend your days gossiping and moaning in the galley with other crew in a similar position, whilst the juniors do most of the work.

8che 16th May 2020 10:19


Originally Posted by krismiler (Post 10781982)
Whilst being interviewed in the queue waiting to board a Ryanair flight to Alicante, Tracy 19 a shop assistant from Croydon stated that she had been following the news regarding the return to service of the MAX very carefully and was satisfied that Boeing had addressed all the issues put forward by the FAA and EASA. She felt that the additional training required for pilots transitioning onto the MAX from previous generations of the B737 was adequate, and modifications made to the flight control system and software would prevent a trim runaway. She described her main interests as fashion, boy bands, having her hair done and certification requirements for passenger aircraft.

She was looking forward to going out and getting legless with her mates that night and praised Ryanair for their cheap tickets.

Brilliant Krismiler, hope you don’t mind but I used this in our morning meeting

LTNman 16th May 2020 10:43


Originally Posted by Cyclic Hotline (Post 10781619)
But on Tuesday, O’Leary said he currently viewed talking with Airbus as a waste of his time.

“We would not initiate talks with Airbus until such time as Airbus wants to initiate talks with us,” he said in an interview.

“Until they need an order from the Ryanair Group, frankly we are wasting our time talking to Airbus,” he added, without elaborating.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN22O1IZ

More of a case that Airbus has a long memory and now won’t deal with Ryanair after the airline used them to drive down a then deal with Boeing after Airbus thought they had secured a major order.

DaveReidUK 16th May 2020 11:43


Originally Posted by LTNman (Post 10784049)
More of a case that Airbus has a long memory and now won’t deal with Ryanair after the airline used them to drive down a then deal with Boeing after Airbus thought they had secured a major order.

Manufacturers lose potential orders all the time. I'd be surprised if there are many airlines that Airbus aren't willing to talk to, and Ryanair won't be on that blacklist.

LTNman 16th May 2020 16:28

Well that was what was said at the time. It would seem that Ryanair now has the hump but is reaping the reward for past actions as Airbus knows Ryanair has no intention of buying Airbus.

krismiler 17th May 2020 00:03


Brilliant Krismiler, hope you don’t mind but I used this in our morning meeting
You and anyone else are most welcome.

MarkD 18th May 2020 15:37


Originally Posted by krismiler (Post 10782971)
It was the same with British Airways, or "Boeing Always" as they were known. Before they ordered the A320 they actually had to go to Toulouse and persuade Airbus that they were serious and not simply using them to get a better price from Boeing. Easier done when operating a diverse range of aircraft rather than a single type fleet.

They were operating the BCal A320s for ten years by then so at least they were a direct Airbus customer.
https://www.flightglobal.com/airbus-.../22699.article

caiman27 19th May 2020 10:34

This is what Ryanair said in yesterday's Full Year Results: https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/r...wth-pre-covid/

Boeing MAX update

It is over a year since the Group was due to take delivery of its first Boeing 737-MAX-200 aircraft. Boeing are currently guiding a late summer return to service in the US for the B737-MAX. We believe it will be at least Oct. before we receive our first MAX-200 aircraft. We remain fans of, and committed to, these “gamechanger” aircraft with 4% more seats & 16% lower fuel burn, which will transform Ryanair’s cost base for the next decade. We are currently reviewing short-term growth plans and are in active negotiations with both Boeing and Lauda’s A320 lessors to reduce planned deliveries over the next 24 months to reflect slower traffic growth post Covid-19 in 2020 & 2021.


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